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Mike Krieger On The "High End" Bubble

Tyler Durden's picture


The "High End" Bubble

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way - in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

- The Opening Paragraph from Charles Dickens’, A Tale of Two Cities

Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere…

Without the ability to identify bubbles I’d pretty much be useless in this business.  I live, breathe and eat macro news and trends.  It is what I am inherently good at and I leverage that talent to the best of my ability.  On the other hand put me in front of a financial model and I want to blow my brains out within 20 minutes.  I am not exaggerating.  I worked in equity research for five years.  I learned a lot actually and I am very lucky to have had the experience but it was like taking a fish out of the water, tossing it in the air and telling it to fly.  It just wasn’t natural.  I have always said that people screw up when they don’t figure out what they are naturally good at and then stick to that, but rather attempt to be a jack of all trades.  I make a living off of people that don’t get that.  I love it when people engage in my world when they have no business doing so, but the best types, the types that make people like me salivate are those that are ignorant of the macro world but also suffer from the deadly (to them) combination of large bank accounts and equally large egos.

So I haven’t written about many “bubbles” since 2008.  Back then I was at Bernstein and I was hardly capable of writing a word without  saying commodities were a bubble ready to crater.  I also hammered home the point of the “fert.coms,” which included POT and MOS.  The main reason I haven’t written about similar bubbles is because I have been 100% focused on what is likely the biggest bubble in the history of mankind.  The fiat U.S. dollar and all income streams related to it.  Of course, the inverse to this monumental bubble are gold and silver and the commodities necessary to everyday life (food and energy) and as such I have been wildly bullish on those particular items.  This is the most amazingly easy trade I have ever stumbled upon because it takes some serious macro thinking and a grasp of financial history to understand the precious metals markets.  These are two things Wall Street is not very good at.  Even better, Wall Street is full of ego maniacs with lots of money.  So all a lot of these clowns do is look at the price charts of gold and silver and the childish thought “bubble” pops into their clouded heads.  Of course it’s very tempting to just look at the charts and think this if you don’t understand what is really driving their ascent.  The popping of the largest bubble in human history.  The fiat, counterfeit, and immoral U.S. dollar standard. 

The "High End" Bubble

Anyway, gold, silver and the dollar are not the focal point of this email (amazingly).  The focal point of this email is what I believe to be the only other major bubble currently in place besides the dollar and that is this absurd view that the “high end” is some sort of great secular investment theme that will carry on forever due to rising incomes in the emerging markets and the bifurcation between haves and have-nots in the West.  Like any other bubble, it begins with a real macro trend; a real and powerful story.  Then at some point the thing gets stretched beyond its ability to continue and then finally you get to a point where investors confidently extrapolate the trend forever into the future just at the time the trend itself becomes unsustainable.  With regard to “high end” I believe we are there now and I think this entire theme will implode on itself in the not too distant future and there are two main reasons why I think this.

First, we all know about the bifurcation in the haves and have-nots in the West.  The funny thing is that when you hear Wall Street talking heads speak to this they act as if they just discovered electricity.  Sorry guys, this has been going on for decades.  The only thing that has happened is that the super, super rich (0.1% of the country) and their puppets in D.C. neglected to use their positions of power during the 2008 crisis to help their country and their fellow citizen get back on their feet and reform the system, but rather they decided to totally raid, abuse and pillage their fellow Americans in an act of unprecedented greed and recklessness.  What the “analysts” fail to see is that these “elites” have played their hand way too far.  The social crisis facing the country as a result of the most egregious plundering in modern American history will spell the end of the “high end” theme.  Buying into this trend now is like getting long Marie Antoinette’s unsevered head in 1792.             

Moreover, in the BRICS (China in particular) this bifurcation has also exploded in recent years and with inflation spiraling higher we have a cauldron for social unrest and revolution.  The haves have already taken everything from the have-nots.  When that happens you don’t buy high end retail stocks, you get long guillotines (to be clear I do not condone violence WHATSOEVER, I am merely calling the situation as I see it).  Just read this article from Bloomberg this morning to get an idea of how close we are to a total social implosion.  Key quote from the article: “Consumers, particularly in the lower-income end, are being forced to use their credit cards for everyday spending like gas and food, said Tavares, who’s based in Atlanta. That’s because there’s been no other positive catalyst, like an increase in wages, to offset higher prices. It’s a cash-flow problem.” and… “The swings in purchases of fuel and food have been “dramatic,” Tavares said. The volume of gasoline purchases placed on credit cards jumped 39 percent last month from a year earlier, compared with a 21 percent increase in June 2010, he said. Food shopping increased 5 percent after falling 7 percent last year.” Serfs up!     

The second reason I think this trend is set to be put to bed is that a lot of these companies are not really “high end” at all.  I mean look at some of the winners benefitting from this theme.  Take JWN (+23% ytd), RL (+27% ytd), COH (+20% ytd), TIF (+35% YTD), BRBY LN (+42% ytd), RMS FP (+50%) and AXP (+22% ytd).  I cannot think of a worse basket of stocks to buy right now.  The thing about these names is yes of course the super rich do shop there but that is not where the marginal dollar is coming from.  The marginal dollar is coming from the emerging market consumer that THINKS they are rich and making false extrapolations about their real wealth and future earnings potential just as so many Americans did earlier this decade when they felt wealthy due to the housing bubble.  Essentially the same trade in happening in China and elsewhere in the developing nations as we speak.  Furthermore, believe you me when the SHTF the super rich aren’t going to run into Coach and Ralph Lauren and support sales.  They will buy gold and real estate in a foreign country in anticipation of the guillotine (metaphorically speaking hopefully).  Have a great weekend! 

Peace and wisdom,


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Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:21 | 1478560 JohnG
JohnG's picture

WTF is wrong with you man?  Just another troll that should be ignored?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:26 | 1478572 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Trav7777's lily white world is collapsing.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:36 | 1478607 JumpinJonnyK
JumpinJonnyK's picture

This is why I have been buying gold and silver for 3 years and still add to my holding.  I only buy the physical coins and bays.  Just an fyi for anyone looking to buy gold or silver use it's a cost comparison shopping site.  It will help you locate top dealers with the best price. 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:48 | 1478656 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

we are within weeks of gold revaluation and the soverign debt crisis will be history

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:11 | 1478884 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Years out pal,  the psychology of the masses manipulated perfectly by the paid for media will not allow it to happen..

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 21:05 | 1479350 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ I Think and Calm,

I have no way of knowing when gold will make its big move up, but my guess would be that it incrementally go up until we SNAP!

And then we get to FOFOA numbers.

I agree with Mike Krieger that the high end retailers are dangerous play for anyone but short term speculators.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 10:42 | 1480590 Syrin
Syrin's picture

FOFOA = ??

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:34 | 1478926 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Not sure what that means. Bottom line is that no country on earth, with the possible exception of Norway, can make good on all the promises they've made to their people. A reset/revaluation is coming but it won't be primarily in gold.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 08:22 | 1479991 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

"we are within weeks of gold revaluation and the soverign debt crisis will be history"


You're kidding right? Equities will be hyperinflated before that revaluation tool is used. It may have worked in Roosevelt's era, but I can't imagine Americans obeying an order from the president to sell all their gold to the US treasury, besides, we live in a globalised era and the high end guys who have physical gold holdings in banks would have moved it where the IRS/Treasury can't touch them long ago. Revaluation without confiscation is also on the cards, but that is happening incrementally right now anyway, and it does not solve the debt crisis.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:42 | 1478631 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Thanks Mike.  Love your work.  You bring passion and clarity.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:45 | 1478956 waylon153
waylon153's picture

In reply to the article:  Disappointed.  Not bad for an opinion piece but to make such a strong statement based on a Bloomberg article is a mistake.  I haven't been particularly impressed by Bloomberg recently and I'm finding it harder to find well researched information there.

"Just read this article from Bloomberg this morning to get an idea of how close we are to a total social implosion."  Really?  Bloomberg is now a leading source and indicator of total societal implosion topics?  Let's do some fact checking: 

1) Written by Anna-Louise Jackson and  Anthony Feld.  Can't find the author's bios on Bloomberg.  However, I did find over 8 articles they have written together.  Interns?  Part-time student journalists from Northwestern?  Who knows who they are, but they seem to be holding hands a lot.  Hard to believe Senior Financial Reporters need so much help....

2) The authors claim "Consumers in the U.S. are increasingly using credit cards to pay for basic necessities as income gains fail to keep pace with rising food and fuel prices." Really?  Because the June increases mentioned could easily be explained by summer vacations and expenditures away from home.  Gas is needed for families traveling by auto.  Also, how do credit card companies know that people are paying for gas or food?  Are itemized lists sent to billing or just the transaction amount?  Purchases made from grocery stores could easily be pharmaceutical or anything else.

3) I stopped reading (not really, but wish I had) when the authors cited data from the Federal Reserve.

4) "Changes within the industry may account for some of the recent stabilization in outstanding revolving credit as several banks have ended incentive programs for debit cards." Incentive programs for debit cards?  Never heard of those.  Ever.  Besides, several banks?  Which banks?  Two community credit unions in Walla Walla, Washington?  How large were these banks?  Large enough to spike data leading to "Consumers in the U.S. are increasingly using credit cards to pay for basic necessities as income gains fail to keep pace with rising food and fuel prices?"

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:27 | 1479048 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

He didn't make the statement of the article BASED on the Bloomberg piece...he made it from long experience in the macro trends world as he stated at the beginning of the article.  The Bloomberg piece was icing to give more flaovr to the overall trend he sees developing.  

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 21:00 | 1479322 Kali
Kali's picture

Waylon, sorry to tell you, number 2, that's a big YES!  Any transaction you make with a credit card or a debit card is "logged" somewhere, specificly stating what you bought.  If you get a receipt showing what you bought, so do they.  If you have a grocery store "club" card, they know exactly how much toilet paper and tampons you are buying.  Think about it, marketing research people sell this info about you all the time.  You think the gov doesn't have it somewhere?  Shit, even my credit union sends me an unsolicited "breakdown" of where I spend my money every month, would I like to meet with a financial planner to better manage my income?

In addition, a bank teller friend told me this, since 911, all banks/credit unions were required to digitize the deposits of checks.  Seems things got screwed up at the clearinghouses that got blown up along with the towers.  So, they also know exactly where any check you deposit in your account came from and where any check you write went to.

I am afraid you are woefully uninformed about how our money systems work and unless you pay or buy everything in cash, yes, they do know EXACTLY what you spent your money on.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 22:15 | 1479477 IEVI
IEVI's picture

If you think the Bloomberg article was written by interns, how about this from CNN.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 08:31 | 1480015 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Incentive programs for debit cards?  Never heard of those.  Ever.  Besides, several banks?  Which banks?

USAA is ending its debit rewards in September.

A new federal law will significantly reduce the revenue banks receive from merchants when consumers pay with a debit card. USAA Bank has always returned the majority of this revenue to its members in the form of benefits, such as free checking, ATM fee refunds and debit rewards.


As a result of the law, USAA Bank will end its debit card rewards program Sept. 1. Unlike other banks responding to the new law, USAA Bank is not adding fees or eliminating the benefits that members value most, including free checking and ATM fee refunds.

As of March, 2011, ranked 66th in net worth among the Fortune 500 and 132nd for revenue, USAA has proven to be a financially strong organization. Without a cent of TARP money, our net worth, owned and managed assets, revenue, net income and membership all increased and continues to grow. Plus, member satisfaction remains consistently high at 97%.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:10 | 1478997 mkix
mkix's picture

I just wanted to throw a thanks for Krieger's article.
I'm a designer working with marketing teams who are constantly force feeding us this "high end market" strategy stuff. It's complete nonsense!
It's market research that's like from unicorn valley! There's no way that 1% of a population can support all of these brands… it's a pyramid with no base, which is suppose to be emerging markets aka. China, and I think there is a "want" for it, but not any cash behind it. The 3 fake apple stores in the news today is a perfect example. It's a lot if crap to tackle in a blog post. Thank you mike.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:22 | 1479035 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Junked off again and I've got a 2nd one almost on the cusp of making it a twofer


Is Chumba watching?

Tyler, you need to raise my junk limit

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:49 | 1479109 mkix
mkix's picture

Tav! Let it go... Why are such a dick?... Lol
What do you have to say?!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:29 | 1478588 trav7777
trav7777's picture

got no time for blowhards who voted for Obama

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:31 | 1478597 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Where did you get that idea, and just for the record I don't vote in sham "elections" anymore.....would NOT have voted for Debt Brother if I did.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:17 | 1478733 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Krieger did

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:57 | 1478968 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Looks like a lot of people don't have time for you either Trash, though I doubt they give a crap how a bigot like you votes.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:13 | 1479006 Blanc swan
Blanc swan's picture

Shut up, jack-ass.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 21:19 | 1479056 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

What is this: the cracker jack punk parade?

Tone down the "White Noise", "...turn up the colour, turn down the suck..."

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:15 | 1479008 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

Trav7777 is one the the most epic disappointments in the short history of ZH. 

Incredibly smart guy who can't escape the clutches of his white-trash, misogynistic, KKK DNA.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:20 | 1479027 trav7777
trav7777's picture

ROTFL...not my fault if you're blind, moron

The "truth" you guys spout here is regarded as moonbat conspiracy bullshit, and you have the gall to be closedminded?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 21:20 | 1479387 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Heh, 'closeminded to regressive closeminded-ness', is that supposed to function like a double negative?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 22:43 | 1479529 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Hey, man, you gotta give Trav the freedom to let his fuck flag fly.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 23:08 | 1479562 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

And I do. I just call him on the bosh.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 22:36 | 1479514 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

Closed Mindedness?


It's difficult to find a group of human sloths more close minded (and loathsome) than the KKK, and it would appear, given your obsessive racist and bigoted commentary, that you're either a proud member or looking to join.

Your various arguments that you puke up to support your white-power, superiority complex are utterly asinine.  Take for instance your claim a few months back that cranial radius is indicative of intelligence - fucking pure garbage! 

You're citing research from decades ago before advancements in neurosurgery allowed surgeons to remove significant portions of people's brain with virtually no lasting cognitive affects.  If we can remove 25%-40% of some one's brain with full recovery 12 months later, do you actually think a 2cm difference in cranial radius means anything? 

What about those people with Down Syndrome who have a much larger cranial radius?  Do they have better cognitive skills?

What about Einstein? Was his brain/cranium larger or more dense than normal?  No. The only notable difference was the number of glial cells.

For you to cite pathetic, half-ass, archaic, agenda-driven research from 40 or 100 years ago demonstrates the sort of idiocy one should expect from a KKK slug looking to justify his white-power insecurities.

However, even more pathetic than that, is your insistence in playing the powerless victim. You're always the victim, aren't you?  Women screw you over; Jews screw you over; blacks screw you over; bankers screw you; politicians screw you. You're the guy who blames everyone else for your own failures and misery, aren't you?  If only the world was all male, all white and government-less, you could just butt-fuck everyone in pure utopia, couldn't you? 

It's not the fault of women, or Jews, or blacks or minorities for whitey's struggles. It's his own damn fault. If you want to blame the blacks and minorities for being parasites on the system, why not blame the white, country-club Harvard politician who buys their votes with food stamps and social projects? Here, you blame the recepient, not the provider, because the recipient is black.  When convenient, though, you'll switch blame to the provider, as is the case with "Jew confetti". If you want to blame the Jews for usury, why not blame the entire planet for signing on the dotted line?  You switch blame from the hookers to the johns and back again when it suits your paradigm of bigotry. 

When a man constantly blames others for the environment in which he lives, I think it speaks more about the man than his environment. If whitey was so damn smart, why does he allow himself to get screwed all the time? Why has he allowed the world to treat him so unfairly?  When you blame everyone else as pervasively as you do and constantly play the victim card, you unwittingly reveal your (and whitey's) spinelessness. That, coupled with your obnoxious avatar and hostile, loathesome online persona, leads me to believe you're just another spineless "victim" struggling to understand why you're so irrelevant to this world and why your sphere of power erodes more and more.

You're a smart guy trav - you truly are.  But so is Kaczynski and a thousand other famous lunatics. 


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 23:12 | 1479573 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

I'd swear Trash is Dr.Lionel Jones in Kurt Vonnegut's "Mother Night"

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 23:56 | 1479634 trav7777
trav7777's picture

wow...that was just a great screed man.

Too bad you have me confused with somebody else.  I'm not miserable nor a victim; I'm doing fine.  I'm not complaining every other fucking day or salivating for the end of the world to come RIGHT NOW please bc I have my canned ham and silver buried in the backyard.  That is y'all bitches.  And I blame YOU.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 09:43 | 1479916 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Closed Mindedness?

It is almost impossible to find a group of human sloths more close minded than anyone in a position of power that benefits from the maintenance of the status quo.  The KKK bigots are actually legitimized by the closed minded actions of those in power who de-legitimize, as opposed to refute, their line of reason.  

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 08:47 | 1480051 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

People get really charged up about race, which should indicate that there are serious internal imbalances in the loudest most obnoxious people shouting on either side of the argument. In a completely different context Glenn Greenwald said "the ideas stigmatized with the most potent taboos are the ones that are most obviously true." Rather than bash Trav, which is becoming downright trendy on these comment boards, you guys should consider his ideas for what they are, and do so without getting your panties in a bunch or attacking him personally with dumb cliches ("white trash" "kkk" etc). This is how rational discourse happens, this is how ideas evolve and become sophisticated.


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 08:47 | 1480052 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

double post

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:34 | 1478603 Confused
Confused's picture



....really? Thats what your comment is based on? You are better than that.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:38 | 1478617 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Clearly you haven't read many of his comments.  He is NOT better than that.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:47 | 1478653 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

At least he USED to be coherent.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 20:14 | 1479190 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

I think Trash's noggin' went offline about the same time as the Fukishima nuclear plant, either that or when he added another '7' to his moniker.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:53 | 1478675 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

+1 from my son. He is in Juvie right now.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:00 | 1478695 espirit
espirit's picture

Where have you been Mom? Junior is still able to access the internet on the break room Xbox as we speak.

Damn cutbacks in local support services, uh parole supervision.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:18 | 1478734 trav7777
trav7777's picture

yeah, Krieger's a dumbass

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:31 | 1478920 Milestones
Milestones's picture

So as the correlary, you must be the smartass. Couldn't resist.     Milestones 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:54 | 1478970 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

So, Kriegar comes to the party with a theme to consider and you come with a scintillating "STFU" sign around your neck. Now, let's consider who's the dumb ass in this equation?


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:23 | 1479038 trav7777
trav7777's picture

ok, let's.


All right, I have considered it and YOU are the dumbass...along with Krieger.  Throw Mort Zuckerman in there too

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 20:18 | 1479202 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

How about Mark Zuckerberg?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 20:59 | 1479328 oddjob
oddjob's picture


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 21:13 | 1479374 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Hunh, doesn't say anything about that on his 'wall', you know this first hand 'job?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 21:19 | 1479389 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Who else other than a fag would want to create a site where everybody can come together and reveal personal information ?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 21:35 | 1479421 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Any one of the half billion Jabronis that have signed up for it?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 22:05 | 1479463 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Agreed.  But this site is Facebook too, dude.  Anonymity is not what a lot of people think it is...for either those who think they have it here or that treasure it.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 22:53 | 1479515 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Shit Vic, I think you just broke my irony bone.

Thanks a lot for leading me down the garden path Oddjob. Don't laugh, the egg's on your face too.

OTOH, apart from my charming demeanour, sledgehammer wit and crushing grip of reason, what else do you know about me, or for that matter most of those on ZH?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 23:07 | 1479555 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Personally I don't know anything about you.  The only person I cared to find out about was RobotTrader, but that was more so I could get my Robo-isms delivered to me throughout the day.  I enjoy those a lot.  

I enjoy your comments here a lot, too.

Re: my point - we are communicating via military technology. 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 23:18 | 1479581 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

"Re: my point - we are communicating via military technology." that eight year olds can reverse engineer (void where prohibited).

I gotcha though.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 23:33 | 1479597 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Don't laugh, the egg's on your face too.


Just so long as its only egg.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 21:40 | 1479422 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

erm, I know I only pressed "save" once.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 21:37 | 1479423 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture


Fri, 07/22/2011 - 00:59 | 1479673 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Dear oh dear. Sad.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 04:59 | 1479829 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

No, he's not.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:37 | 1478614 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Seems to me like you've got plenty of time, now that you have alienated all friends and family with your death worshipping garbage.

But then, maybe you are too busy trying to implement his "sterilize 97+% of the human population and create a demographic nightmare that leads to the total destruction of mankind" jerk-off fantasy.  All because he never actually bothered to grow bacteria in a bottle, but just assumed they would keep growing until they died out.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:18 | 1478736 trav7777
trav7777's picture

you're an idiot...I'm sure you've been told that today already

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:42 | 1478815 JohnG
JohnG's picture

You should get yourself some help trav, I'm worried for you.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 01:10 | 1479683 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

For the sake of humanity, please consider a vasectomy. 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:49 | 1478835 andybev01
andybev01's picture

*and the joos; don't forget about his love for the Hebrews*

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 22:27 | 1479498 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Seems to me like you've got plenty of time, now that you have alienated all friends and family with your death worshipping garbage.

Trav still has a family as he's told us.  Unlike him, however, I freely admit I enjoy watching iCarly.  

And Trav is most definitely right in many regards including this one: Mike Krieger should STFU.  Kriegs is in way over his head.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 22:28 | 1479502 tictawk
tictawk's picture

I don't see a dollar collapse because this is DEBT i.e. it is borrowed from our future.  I see acollapse in BONDS which means collapse in lending or at minimum end of low interest rates.  That means higher dollar as deflation takes hold. 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 22:29 | 1479503 tictawk
tictawk's picture

I don't see a dollar collapse because this is DEBT i.e. it is borrowed from our future.  I see acollapse in BONDS which means collapse in lending or at minimum end of low interest rates.  That means higher dollar as deflation takes hold. 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:23 | 1478565 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

The kleptocracy will have nowhere to run.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:28 | 1478584 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Trav you 'effing anti-semite even a Jew can tell the truth once in a while! PS - nice essay, Krieger.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:21 | 1478906 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

nice essay...

OTOH... I'm also starting 2 think that there's a bubble in BUBBLES...

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:35 | 1478604 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

I second that!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:11 | 1478876 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Trav..on behalf of everyone at ZH, "GO DIE MOTHERFUCKER"!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:17 | 1479015 Blanc swan
Blanc swan's picture

You're definitely not speaking for me, jack-ass.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:44 | 1479101 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Blancmange mon merde.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:17 | 1478537 Quintus
Quintus's picture

How's this for 'High End'?  A gold and platinum yacht.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:28 | 1478580 caerus
caerus's picture


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:45 | 1478646 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

no just take the yacht and melt it

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:50 | 1478663 caerus
caerus's picture

that would be smarter...just quoting zoolander man

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:19 | 1478739 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

And kill the Malasian businessman.  Such conspicious stupidity demands it.  

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:29 | 1478782 magpie
magpie's picture

"You can't float gold"

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 21:45 | 1479432 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Bullshit, if it's in the right shape you can float concrete.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:32 | 1478790 Reptil
Reptil's picture

that's a bloody photoshop job

I'm sure it exists. I mean in what would you sink your money in, if you'd be so buoyant?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:51 | 1478964 centerline
centerline's picture

Better have good security or hide that thing.  Pirates dream right there.  Hell, just hack off a doorknob and run/swim like hell.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 20:50 | 1479304 Master Chef
Master Chef's picture

Oh No, the captain just fucked off with the anchor.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:18 | 1478550 Popo
Popo's picture

Regarding your last sentence:  It will not be metaphorical. 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:28 | 1478585 Misean
Misean's picture

Nope...except for the guillotine part. That's so 18th century.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:21 | 1478745 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

What?  Not sure we will be capable of the technology by the time we come to that?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:24 | 1478570 JohnG
JohnG's picture


I'm looking for Long-John-Silver.  Long, if you see this please reply, I need to tell you something about a post you made yesterday re: silver manipulation.


Question for anyone, I need a good way to capture my screen in real time with audio, I can show something quite interesting, and illegal, flash trading in SLV.

Totally bullshit, but it's one part of silver manipulation schemes, prolly happenning in GLD as well, I'll see.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:36 | 1478609 Immortal Flatulence
Immortal Flatulence's picture

use the free trial or blow $10

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:43 | 1478634 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Thanks very much!  It's so blatant that I'm going to have to grind an axe on this for a while.  It's such bullshit, and if I can tape it and millions of people send the link to the CFTC and the SEC, maybe Justice, your congress critters....

If they don't take notice and do something about it we'lll know for sure certian that  the regulators are in bed with the theives.  As if we didn't know already.

It HAS to stop, they are breaking NBBO.

Thanks again.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:50 | 1478665 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Didn't we all already view it yesterday?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:00 | 1478696 JohnG
JohnG's picture

There was a link to a Mrsilvergoldsilver youtube video.  I started watching this same crap across the SLV 39 puts and the asks were getting cancelled in the thousands just like the video yesterday.

I think I can get a better video that more clearly shows it.  I want to do that and then publicize as widely as possible.

Really, really, fucked up.  Flash trading just like Harvey Organ has postulated, I want to see if it's happenning in GLD, and both SLV and GLD if it accellerates after the NYMEX close.

I was out till 1 ET today, so I don't know what happenned before that, watched it for 30 min and it got my blood boiling to the point I had to have a couple drinks, errrr, my wife made me because i was yelling and disturbing the animals.....

Not sure if I can show the same on /SI, bit even if I can't, I'd think it is, and that would be sooooooo illegal.

I'm not easy to anger either, but this is sickening.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:53 | 1478969 letsgetreadytorumble
letsgetreadytorumble's picture

Good Work Bro!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:12 | 1479002 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Thank Long-John-Silver.  He linked to the youtube video on it yesterday which got me started..

This is PROOF of manipulation, no doubt about it.

Bastards.  Never been so mad in my life I don't think.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:24 | 1478762 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Thx, trying to see which one works best.

h/t Long-John_Silver on this:

(warning, the guy is sort of vulgar.....much like me around 1:15)

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:50 | 1478662 playitcool
playitcool's picture

this is pretty good too.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:25 | 1478768 JohnG
JohnG's picture

THX!  Tryin 'em all.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:54 | 1478971 Carnegie_IB
Carnegie_IB's picture

DVD Flick together with ImgBurn for media production.

then there is

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:03 | 1478985 JohnG
JohnG's picture


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:27 | 1478577 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

that's the point the rich totally miss....


the only reason they have so much wealth is, they took it from all the rest of us.


When all of us are bankrupt, they have a small problem ....

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:40 | 1478625 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

you gotta download "Little Lion Man" by Mumford & Sons.  your comment mirrors that tune

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:40 | 1478628 French Frog
French Frog's picture

Somehow i doubt very much that the rich are "totally missing that point";

one would think that they got rich (in part) by being well aware of that fact and exploiting it to the max

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:46 | 1478647 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

You don't need to be smart to be greedy.

I know a billionaire quite well, and to be honest, the guy is a total moron.  He pays for everything, including women because no one wants to be around him.

I can tell you that he has so much money he absolutely cares not about the future, or gold, or silver, or whatever happens in the EU.  He can't see past his nose.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:24 | 1479030 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Dostoyevsky's 'Prince' thought that successful businessmen required a certain 'dullness' of intellect. I think he may have been taking shots at the Rotschilds of his era, as Russians of that day were sometimes wont to do...

OTOH he was a shitty card player and spendthrift who spent his life in debt as a result.

Good writer though, or at least the scribes who put his work into English for me are.

Anyway, I agree: You don't need to be smart to be greedy, but IMO it doesn't seem to hurt your chances of success:

"Sometimes the faster it gets, the less you need to know. But you gotta remember the smarter it gets the further it's gonna go. When you blow at high dough." - Gordon Downie

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:33 | 1479069 caerus
caerus's picture

I agree completely...D is one of my favorite authors (along with Faulkner and papa) Notes From the Underground beat Sartre and Camus by a mile...

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:49 | 1478657 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

The rich; By using their money and buying the government of a country, become above the law. Thus they bilk the people out of what ever they have. The great lie is "equal under the law".

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:00 | 1478979 Carnegie_IB
Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:26 | 1479046 trav7777
trav7777's picture


You actually think that a rich person is only rich because they stole it from YOU?  What are you, black?

So, Bill Gates stole all YOUR wealth?  WTF, did you write the code for Windows and he pirated it?  Freakin moron

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 20:19 | 1479149 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Uhhh, Bill Gates stole more from the American people than you obviously know, cunning stunning stunt that you are.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 20:47 | 1479297 squeal
squeal's picture

In the grand scheme of things, Gates is an exception. There are always a few rags to riches stories that right wing goons like yourself like to trot out to prove that there is an equality of opportunity in this country/world.

The reality most of the time is that where you are born is where you'll die also, class-wise. Sure, Bill Gates moved up a few rungs, but it's not like he came from the ghetto.....

And, regarding the Windows code: Yes, much of it was stolen from the free-software peeps, the linux and gnu communities and their precursors. They took something that should be free (like air for example) and bottled it up, monopolized it to the point where you literally can't do business in this country without giving them their cut.

And let's remember here that we're talking about your golden boy, his holiness Bill Gates, the lord and saviour of the free market. This is your highest example of moral and wealthy.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 21:49 | 1479438 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Windows should be free like air?

So IOW, everyone here is a nigger, GIBS ME DAT.

You're all a bunch of punks and bitches.  Work, make your own shit.  Complain about the bankers.  But capitalists built shit, they made themselves rich through luck and industriousness that you didn't have and left you with nothing but cupidity and envy.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 22:10 | 1479466 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Reason just bounces off you; thick as a plank.

Trash thinks 'stealing' = 'industriousness'.

Trash you ought to sue before they change the malpractice laws, that leucotomy obviously isn't working out for you.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:27 | 1478578 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture




and should the rich come to Germany or Switzerland, we are already awaiting them with a guillotine.


Dumm gelaufen !


A-hahahahaha !


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:29 | 1478590 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture


So they will have to go to Singapore or the U.K.,

where people still believe in this "oligarchy is great" meme.

Just look at the rich Greeks fleeing to London and buying high-end property in the suburbs.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:36 | 1478608 Confused
Confused's picture

How could you possibly tell the difference between them and the swiss? ;-P

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:42 | 1478635 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture


By asking them a question in German or French and if they don't answer with Swiss dialect, then "Off with their heads !"


Excusez moi, monsieur, vous êtes une personne riche ?

Combien d'argent possedez vous ?

Vous êtes des Etats-Unis ?



Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:28 | 1478583 unky
unky's picture

thats true, i have so many friends in china and none who i know personally cares about PMs. Thats unlike the usual articles i find at zerohedge which always states that the chinese are buying all the PMs. Maybe its just true for the very weahlty chinese but certainly not for the ordinary people there.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:21 | 1478729 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

The Chinese, by and large are not loading precious metals in bullion form.

If they ever do, watch out.

A lot, but not the majority, of the rich mainlanders are flaunting it with Bentley and Rolex collections, polo ponies, etc. (Marx called it First Stage Capitalism) which may be building up the likes of TIF.

I personally believe the Chinese top-end phase has a long way to run.  I believe it will not 'correct' within lifetimes of most of the posters here.  The basic reason is, more & more China plays by its own rules.

Unless they have been there, Americans (I'm not saying you, unky) cannot fathom the immense wealth transfer that has occurred at their expense.  The middle class here is permanently in the hurt locker.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:06 | 1478868 Captain Planet
Captain Planet's picture

The one giant black swan to always count on in T-a year ago (or 2008, for China's last big quake), global climate weirding/haarp. 

One thing that surprises me on ZH is the exten to which Peak Oil gets left out of discussion regarding the 10-20 outlook. 

Even Tyler today emphasized Euro monetization as a reason for oil's price increase. Now, Tyler is obviously gearing that article towards near term price threshholds, but the price explosion in oil that could be a few years off is a mathamatical certainty (russian oil pissing organisms aside).

Peak oil and natural disasters mean MASSIVE amounts of refugees. they will use every means necessary to leave the place they have been living, and crazy territorial battles will be fought. just look at israel/palestein today. or libya, georgia, chechnya, tibet, california... 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:27 | 1479047 trav7777
trav7777's picture

you actually think Peak Oil gets left out around here?? LOL.

Apparently, you don't read too many oil thread comments

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:30 | 1478594 Neezer
Neezer's picture

This article makes me want to buy a six-pack of "High Life" on my credit card.

Bottoms Up!
- The Miller Brewing Company

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:43 | 1478640 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Im going lights out with the 18 pack. see you at the bottom

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:46 | 1478645 caerus
caerus's picture


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:54 | 1478678 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

I'll drink to that.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:22 | 1478749 chet
chet's picture

feels like that kind of weekend

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:14 | 1478890 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Hell, it takes me 18 just to get started.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:29 | 1478918 caerus
caerus's picture

long balvenie

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 02:49 | 1479749 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

MGD for me.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:33 | 1478599 narnia
narnia's picture

i wonder if Bernanke ever contemplates a guillotine in the end game. scenario.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:35 | 1478605 Juice Box
Juice Box's picture

"Whoop de doo!  What does it all mean?"

           Austin Powers - Goldmember

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:05 | 1478710 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

I'm actually really surprised anyone would admit watching Austin Powers Goldmember

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:52 | 1478846 andybev01
andybev01's picture

Except for the poo jokes, I think all 3 movies are quite funny.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 21:14 | 1479380 oddjob
oddjob's picture

complete drivel puked out by morons for morons.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 23:56 | 1479633 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

True.  But some of it is funny I swear.

And as above, so below: Beyonce :-)

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:13 | 1478888 caerus
caerus's picture

one word...beyonce

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:36 | 1478611 brodix
brodix's picture

Funny how that works. You shortchange the foundation in order to put lots more gold fixtures in the penthouse and eventually it all falls down.

 They might be able to buy off everyone in government, but they can't change the laws of nature. 

The young people who survive this will be starting with a fairly clean slate, once they clear away all the rubble.

 Obama is not Hoover. Hoover allowed the economy to tank, in order to save the currency. Obama is letting the currency tank in order to save the economy and is loosing both.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 08:02 | 1479941 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

McMansions shortchange the foundations, real mansions don't.

Similar to how "high end" doesn't actually equate with real wealth, it is merely more expensive mass produced crap sold to create the illusion of wealth.  

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:37 | 1478613 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

I read a piece awhile back that put the order of collapse as: commodities, stock, then bonds.  I guess I can see it, but alot of variables and assumptions.  All I want for Christmas is "when".

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:28 | 1478776 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Yes, I for one, would have been better off if it had gone in the toilet two or three years ago.  I suppose that is the whole point though, to stave off the inevitable long enough to squeeze most people dry.  

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:42 | 1478636 Arius
Arius's picture

i wish Greenspan had heard of Mike while he was still in power .... the man was exactly the opposite ...could not tell of a bubble even when it stared in his face ...

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:43 | 1478639 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

The ubers will have only one solution:  war---- preceeded by another false flag attack, or will it be a fukushima type event for the San Andreas fault?  Since there is no money left to save California and we are getting so,so tired of Kim, Paris and Britney----it will be a logical sacrifice.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 18:58 | 1478975 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

That's a good one, would the ubers call up an earthquake like Zeus?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:44 | 1478643 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Anyone catch the idiot on CNBC calling his own self a tool?  Too funny.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:46 | 1478649 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

Nice article.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:46 | 1478650 gwar5
gwar5's picture

The high end lifestyles are supported by all the former low end consumers who used to buy their crap. No mas.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:46 | 1478651 Critical Path
Critical Path's picture

I came away with a similiar feeling after reading the bloomberg article.  People piling on the credit card debt, which I have absolutely no doubt in this environment is set at avery high interest rate, to pay for food and gas?  There are three scenarios to resolve this dilemma.

1.  Wages surprise the shit out of everyone and increase substantially to help offset the costs of rising energy and food.  My take: highly unlikley... as a matter of fact I'd bet my dick on it.

2.  An all out liquidation in all asset classes to hit the commodities similiar to 08.

3.  Jack shit happens in terms of the previous two, consumers max out the credit cards..."______". (you fill in the blank)  Doesn't take a genius (or does it?) to realize this ends badly.


Don't worry though, apple beat expectations the other night... should give people incentive to go out and buy some extra hot dogs and mac n' cheese.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:50 | 1478661 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture


Please, don't bet your dick.

You're still gonna need it !


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