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Mike Krieger On Risk Redefined
From Mike Krieger of KAM LP
There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.
- Brutus in William Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar
I was born for the storm and a calm does not suit me.
- Andrew Jackson
Risk Redefined
I remember the first time I saw someone us the terms “risk on” and “risk off” as a way to describe the flow of capital into and out of certain baskets of assets that are supposedly “risky” or “safe.” The terms got under my skin back then and they continue to do so until this day. Wall Street and the media just love coming up with trite and untruthful statements as a way to condition investor behavior and ultimately separate you from your money. First of all, the world and the successful deployment of capital is much more complicated over any serious investment horizon than the simplification of everything into “risk on” and “risk off.” This way of thinking is even more dangerous when conventional wisdom allocates to the “risky” category many items that are in reality the true safe havens and to the “safe” category those that are guaranteed to destroy your financial well being.
According to “conventional wisdom” (I wrote a thousand words on conventional wisdom here http://www.zerohedge.com/article/michael-krieger-last-dance) equities and commodities as a group are “risky” and fixed income generally but treasuries and the dollar in particular are “safe.” Seriously, this really is what people think. So why do people think this? Mainly because the economic central planners want it to be this way and they have done everything in their power to make the market act that way on a regular basis via manipulation.
Ok, so this brings us to the next question. If the market behaves that way then isn’t it true? Well yes and no. There is a reason I have made the choices I have in the last few years and why I manage capital the way I do. I can see a sinking ship a million miles away and Wall Street and Washington D.C. are collectively the biggest train wreck in motion I have ever witnessed. As I wrote about last week, since government will do anything to survive one of the “tools” they use is to make you think 2+2=5 so that you do the legwork for them. Lenin is said to have called such people “useful idiots.” Treasuries are safe and gold is a risk asset. Glad I got the memo!
Now, as long as the central planners have some degree of control of the markets, which they still do at the moment, if you are playing the game and managing money in this world of investment horizons of weeks if not days you have no choice but to trade the market you are given. Nevertheless, as I have said countless times before, in the final equation there will be no other asset that will lose investors more money that U.S. government bonds and nothing that will protect wealth more than gold. Moreover, when the central planners do lose control of the markets (and they most certainly will) the fact that they have spent so much time manipulating them as well as pushing investors into the worst types of capital allocation decisions they could make, guarantees the total wreckage of the life’s savings of most of this nation.
People tend to think that they will be able to “react” when the time comes. I promise you one thing you will not be able to react. The central planners have doubled down and tripled down and quadrupled down which means that when the top blows off on this thing it will unravel quicker than anyone can imagine. You will merely stand frozen in front of your screens in total awe wondering what your next job will be. You and your investors will both be finished. Many also think, oh well it won’t happen for 5-10 years at the earliest. This is also wrong. Everything is already in place. It could be tomorrow or it could be next year but it is coming a lot sooner than you think and will be a lot faster than you ever thought possible.
Gold Miners Test the 200 dma Consistently and the S&P500 Never Does…Hmmm
The number one strategy being employed at the moment to keep people out of assets that are actually safe (mainly precious metals, oil and food) is outsized volatility. In order to demonstrate this point let’s take a look at the chart of the GDX and then a chart of the S&P500.
GDX Chart Since December 31, 2009
In the chart above I have circled the distinct times that the GDX has tested the 200 day moving average (yellow line). Since December 31, 2009 it has done so eight times. Not only that, notice how closely it trends to the line and just the overall tremendous volatility. This is for an index of companies that mine what is the best performing asset on a consistent basis for the past decade. It is also for an ETF that hit a record high earlier this year! Ok, so with that in mind let’s look at the chart of the S&P500 over the same time frame.
S&P500 Chart Since December 31, 2009

Well look at that. This index tested the 200 dma on a total of two occasions and both of them were really related to the “Flash Crash” last spring/summer when the authorities briefly lost control and then promptly initiated QE2. They learned their lesson. Make the market go up steadily, with little volatility while making sure the true safe havens (precious metals) experience unbearable volatility and keep people consistently afraid of a crash to slow down the inevitable flow into these assets. I mean, with all the things going on in the world this year the SPX never even came CLOSE to testing its 200 dma and the GDX did it three times. Come on! The whole thing is a painted picture to separate you from your money. This is the game and if you aren’t thinking for yourself and buying the real safe haven the joke will be on you and unfortunately the investors that foolishly trusted you when you really had no idea what you were doing.
Peace and wisdom,
Mike
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Interesting Movement downward in the USD JPY....
more JPY repatriation....flows??? uhm bearish uhmmm
* good work Mike
'Present allocations of capital into whats presently deemed 'most safe' guarantees total sudden wipeout of most all americans'....damn straight.
SILVER BITCHEZ & GOLDEN BASTARDZ........yeah......
silver, gold, food, water..
chill, everything is fine.
just a game of "can kick".
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Me Too. They beat the PM's up. Physical doesn't move. Eh.
any chance we can get an update on the ES-arb spread with the "risk on" asset basket from yesterday?
Very nice question,101yrs
+1
The update was posted at EOD: link
What about today with AUDJPY and ES?
Complete disconnect between stocks and everything once again. The mandate is clear: rip into EOM. And indices autoregress daily.
Good time to play this arb play is today then. Either it will close by EOD or Tue morning. Thanks for the update.
[EDIT] Looks like something is starting to happen. Traders want to go home at 4pm today[/EDIT]
thank you.
goes along with the current put/call of .60 for the day. everyone buying stocks and calls.
Thank you
+1
awesome levitation disconnection decorrelation markets- Fuk all algos and robots and Hft...
Have a nice weekend everyone,
Risk?!? What is this term you speak of? I thought we killed that beast in March 2009.
Hehe,
good answer, Fully Right and plenty of irony
Have everyone nice weekend, im leaving this farce, be back on Monday with the European Haircuts:)
soft patchez!
... bitchez!
F'n windows 7.
Thanks for the laugh.
Risk=US treasuries, junk bonds, stocks all rallying together.
You know BTFD!
Just as I predicted earlier in the day is well on its way: a no-volume 100 points Dow gainer.
Each bailout. Each new fed tool is merely delaying the problem. Transferring risk. Making the system mire complex. Whn it unravels it will be fast and ugly as there will be no lender of last resort - at least not one willing to lose money - and the uninted linkages created will come back to haunt us mightily.
Good article, just one of the few good articles in ZH which benefits the readers.
I am long GDX(1 month ago), long oil stock(last week) and bought some more physical Gold (last week), will continue more with Gold.
gold miners will be taxed into oblivion and then confiscated.
TRUE, but I buy miners only in my 401k. personal holding only Gold.
Wonder what will happen when they finish raiding to government pension funds. Probably won't be an outright confiscation of private savings but more likely be a new rule that will stealthly siphon them.
I have a fondness for the work this Mike Krieger fella puts forth.
He seems like the guy I'd like to have for an older brother....or the type of Cat you would hope would be married to your sister. He seems to be full up with "quality".
Has an interesting and engaging writing style that draws me into the fold....even though I have no formal background/learning in economics or finance.
I would hope to meet him in person one day....listen to him speak on these subjects....shake his hand in thanks.
Bears need to stop the rally in USB, WFC, etc. right here, right now.
And the beleaguered USDX needs to stop going down.
Otherwise, another major intermediate low is probably in place.
Who are these bears you keep blathering about? Why do they need to stop a rally? Name some bears who must do this.
I think by 'bears' RainblowFader here means gold bulls, who are doing better than anyone else.
i see you have time to post on somebody else's dime.
from your faber post yesterday: "And speaking of Newport Beach/Irvine area, I saw three syndicated loan deals go through our credit committee which were interest-only loans in the billions of dollars, priced at LIBOR + 175. And the agent banks arranging these syndications give banks like ours 48 hours notice to approve our participation interests, otherwise we are out of the game."
and all of us on the board thought you were a "retired" trader (your words) posting at zh to help your fellow man to become as successful as you.
pernicious liar and fraud par excellence you are. only the Lord knows what game you are up to. maybe you're a retail trade group poster paid to make folks believe there is a ground swell of activity representing a robust economy. or something else maybe.
but once thing is for certain. you are not what you portray yourself to be which is a successful trader posting at zh for the benefit of the readership.
Someone still uses LIBOR? As if banks are still lending overnight to each other, especially in the Eurozone? Just another plug number passing as a market rate.
good point. robottrader is such a pernicious liar that i'm intrigued by who or what is behind him. something is fishy with the poster known as robottrader. i know he's lying. i just want to know the reason behind the reason.
The oligarchy is directly or indirectly behind him. I read a quote one time that said something along the lines of "Reality is nothing more that generally accepted opinion." So they send their flying monkeys to the various financial and political sites around the Internet to create a false "reality" which benefits them.
i agree. hate being gamed by a punk. one day the truth on him will be out. i'm positive he's a paid troll in some capacity.
He's a Ramora.
A small little fish that picks up scraps of meat left by the frenzy the sharks make when they are tearing apart their victims.
Don't think the Ramora has much remorse or compassion for the fish being torn up by the sharks, Indeed, the scraps from the table is his meal.
at first i wrote him off as a garden variety narcissus what with his avatar, big charts and pictures to draw attention to himself. then i noticed the lies becoming more brazen. something is very fishy with the punk. he's like a provocateur in a crowd at a protest trying to stir things up for an alternative agenda.
MomoFaders robot-like posts also never have anything to do with the article at hand.
Like a simple computer programmer code over and over.
i noticed the same thing. he has an agenda and then pounces on a new post to spread it. he's not effective in changing hearts and minds except among the willfully blind and uneducated who might be pursuaded.
Bear Bryant needs to. No other bears in here, Robo.
Just us bulls. Not the kind you're used to.
At least when TD speaks in such terms he writes "Bill Miller owns this, or Blackrock owns that which is down 9%."... Robo has nothing but some vague allusion to some fictional bears somewhere.
Riffing on the theme in the article, the Bull-Bear paradigm is just a convenient cartoon used to con the innocents and quickly part them from their money
Thats all it is, a cartoon for the likes of Robo the cherry-picker cartoon character. He's here to pretend he's some 'trader', but is actually some bank employee and full time Bernank nutsack gargler.
Latest Marc Faber video - talks about coming technical recession in China, the implications of massive wealth inequality in US, the lie that is U.S. inflation rate, et al.
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/05/video-marc-faber-predicts-that-c...
I can see a sinking ship a million miles away and Wall Street and Washington D.C. are collectively the biggest train wreck in motion I have ever witnessed.
Today's violent dollar selloff and record low USD/CHF right in front of a 3-day holiday (and a patriotic one at that) with violence brewing in the MENA and Eurozone upheaval and economic crisis on full display is an utter repudiation of the dollar as "Safe Haven". Gold up $15 is a statement too. The adults have spoken
Start with: -20 = -20
Which is the same as: 16-36 = 25-45
Which can also be expressed as: (2+2) 2 (9 X (2+2) = 52) 9 X 5
Add 81/4 to both sides: (2+2) 2 (9 X (2+2) + 81/4 = 52) 9 X 5 + 81/4
Rearrange the terms: ({2+2}) 9/2) 2 = (5-9/2) 2
Ergo: 2+2 - 9/2 = 5
Hence: 2 + 2 = 5
Can you explain what properties you used to go from
({2+2}) 9/2) 2 = (5-9/2) 2
to
2+2 - 9/2 = 5
then
2 + 2 = 5
I guess my understanding of math is not up to par, but when I work it out
9+9 + 9/2 = 5
wtf? Take 0 and multiply by your IQ, you have 0x0=0
When I was in training for my NASDQ licenses after graduation they really pushed us hard to sell dollar cost averaging, which to my mind has always been a scam. For several reasons that most retail clients of the brokerages do not understand, and the brokerages do not want them to understand. We will put your money into a fine little portfolio balanced to your needs and goals and when the stocks we put you into turn out to be dogs that go down (because we bought a huge position in them and then shorted them even as we stuffed your portfolio with them and announced a downgrade) then we get you to buy even more of it so that you can claim to have bought the total portfolio at a lower dollar cost average. Sure you get all the risk with no return, but you get a decent tax deduction against your IRS bill if you have one.
It violates all concepts of risk reward, buy low sell high is the only winning startegy over time no matter your business, buy high, buy more lower, buy more lower? That is even worse than trying to catch a falling knife, that is grabbing a falling knife and slashing your own wrists with it.
Then I heard of another scam they do not want you to know about, most here have heard of it though, it is a device called laddering. Not related to laddering out your maturities in debt, but this laddering is very illegal, and a lot more common than you would believe. What they do is make a deal with high net worth clients, you buy a stock issued at price x and then more at the higher y, and even more at the higher z, it is a form of manipulation to push stock prices higher (above fair values) usually done in the IPO market, the reward for those that participate is they are given access to blocks of stock at a lower price that they then bid up and finally dump at a huge and quick profit. You don't have to do much, just give carte blanche to your brokerage to use the funds (and margin credit) in your account and don't ask too many questions, just enjoy the magnificent appreciation and gains.
Wall Street has been ripping of the public for so long in so many ways that enforcement of what few weak laws we have had is now just not possible, and add to that the government and Fed are now Wall Street's biggest clients and they are getting screwed as well. Play poker with the devil and one day you find out what it is like to have a pitchfork up your ass. Sure the government and Bernanke think they are "the man" in the sick symbiotic relationship between business and government, but it will be the super rich 1% that get the last laugh on the rest of us. We the great unwashed hoi poloi were impotent in past abuses, we watch with zero virility as present theft reaches a scope never before dreamed of, and we will have no backbones when it all crashes down to scar the world far into the distant future. Then they will reset the screwing, raping practices to zero and begin the whole process over from scratch.
Wow, where did you cut & paste this from?
P.S. Me and an analyst from Nomura had a deep discussion about laddering back in the 90s, and there's a very part of the equation that you're either missing, or left out...
Meanwhile, the clowns have left the building: House and Senate adjourned for the weekend, bitchez.
But not before they made sure to extend the (un)Patriot Act for four more years (risk on) and ignore the debt ceiling (risk... oh, what the hell?).
And then, there's this:
Republicans Urge Obama Administration to Draft Plan B on Debt Ceiling, 'Just in Case'
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/05/27/republicans-urge-obama-draft-plan-b-debt-ceiling-just-case/#ixzz1NZR2RLcd
We are hurtling down the road, blindfolded, at 140 mph and nobody is aware that the bridge is out two miles ahead.
Without the Patriot Act MSM would be reporting on upheavals in Egypt, civil war in Yemen, UN convoy deaths in Lebanon, dead protestors in Syria all just from this morning's news!
Also deaths in oil towns in Iraq, government collapse in Belarus, demonstrations in Europe.
They know if they did that they'd capture market share as Americans would sit wide eyed in front of the news all day and night.
But MSM reporting is so entertaining, Oprah retiring, a cute little tyke in Joplin found, Obama in Missouri, Obama in Ireland, Obama in Brussels, Obama on a plane back to the USA, Obama lecturing Paki, Oprah audiences with tears in their eyes. Isn't that really the true stuff of life? Some dirty little dictatorship off in some wind blown little corner of the most hellish shitholes on the planet, who wants to see all that anyway? ;)
Yes it's true! MSM news reporting back in the day used to be all about murders, bank jobs, drug busts since the days of Yellow Journalism. Then everything changed with the Patriot Act: we became innocent again: Barry Belts a Brewsky! O Oprah Don't Go! It's become safe to live inside a TV fantasy land....They stopped short of reviving Lifestyles of The Rich and Famous like under Ronnie
Anybody that watches TV can't be surprised that it is nothing more than a waste of your time and a propaganda tool of the elite.
Blow up your TV
Throw away your paper
Move to the Country
Build you a home
-John Prine-
Too true. Turn off the TV. I've gotten better news from ZH than others in the office who tune into MSM. Make it the Marginalized Soiled Media and eventually even the sheeple will see that the emperor has no clothes.
...and Mike is being nice, using the GDX. Because he could have used SLV.
I couldn't agree more with the "risk on" and "risk off" remarks: it has always totally irked me. I have practiced for well over a year now that "risk off" means physical precious metals. There is nothing that says "risk off" more than that in my opininion. Mike is right though, the mainstream financial ponzi scheme wants folks to believe "risk off" means cash and treasuries.....
Well, good luck to that one. On a long enough timeline the survival rate of all fiat currencies drops to zero. And we are at teh tail end of this timeline. Good luck trading to risk off going into the risky asset in the market place: USD's.
Of course, the R2K can do know wrong since it has replaced cash and gold and the worlds most stable and safe asset worldwide. Go Ben.
Are those terms really so inaccurate?
Where/When/If trading has the same (ir)relevance to the real economy as rolling the bones at your favorite casino, then those terms are in fact very good descriptors.
Eric Falkenstein writes a lot of interesting stuff on the just exactly how large risk premiums really are between asset classes: http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/
Risk is Obama "robosigning" the Patriot Act extension....
trav,
Not only extending, but a NEW one.
Secret Patriot Act.
They have a Grand Finale lining up for the sheeple, that we cannot imagine.
Our moronic Senators, thought they were simply extending parts of the old one.
NOT.
Sadly this is correct. False, then desperate hope will keep this going well past the point where it could have been 'repaired' and well into the Fukushima category.
Risk Off Asset = Government insured, supported, funded ...
Risk On Asset = Everything that conflicts with the above
Welcome to the new normal.
@boiltherich
Mike Krieger and David DeGraw
Hang in there, nothing is written is stone. You have the numbers and the values on your side. All you need to do (like your website www.ampedsratus.com) is like Thomas Jefferson and Abe Lincoln said:
Educate and inform the people for it is our only guarantee of liberty. TJ
Tell the people the truth and the nation will be secure. AL
It's time to strip some rich demented scum of their power and end their nightmare world for our loved ones. Life is beatiful except for bankster scum.
You're right that it's time to strip the scumsuckers of their power and educate people. The problem is too many Americans are living in Pollyanna Land right now--but of course these moments can't be suspended on bogus foundations--and think their lives are pretty damn good. And generally speaking, they are.
Can't pay the mortgage, no problem. Squat.
Can't buy food. SNAP it up.
Can't work. 99 weeks, baby--while you squat.
Can't find a job. Fuck it. Who needs one when you don't have to pay your bills and there's all this help out there.
Costs are up. Who cares. They're not paying for it.
The average worker who does have a job? Too busy to notice the ramifications that are sure to come, and not having to paid much in the way of the 5 trillion spent since 07/08 hasn't bit them in the ass much yet.
This will all come crumbing down. But right now--it's Pollyanna time. But it cant and won't last. And that's what is amazing. How numbed down the average American is....
I mean for god sakes we breached the debt ceiling and most people don't give a shit, don't know, or don't understand that you can't spen 2 trillion a year you don't have without reprecussions coming down the pike.
In other words, none of this shit matters right now, until it does.
And judging by world events, looks like the 'none of this shit matters right now' time is over soon.
The problem is that even though this is the worst rip-off in history, most Americans haven't felt the pain. Change won't come until it gets hard for people. Truly, this is only the worst rip-off in histpry because this is the point in history where the largest number of people possessed something to be stolen. As long as Wall Street is only stealing half, or only stealing the future, people will put up with it.
"...People tend to think that they will be able to “react” when the time comes. I promise you one thing you will not be able to react. The central planners have doubled down and tripled down and quadrupled down which means that when the top blows off on this thing it will unravel quicker than anyone can imagine.
You will merely stand frozen in front of your screens in total awe wondering what your next job will be...."
One of the most important paragraphs written on this site.
The "Flash" crashes, I believe really feel like someone testing programs in the live environment. Different components, different areas.
When they work in concert, (as mike noted) it will be breathtaking. Wall to Wall. All doors and windows will be sealed shut and as Morrison said "No body gets out alive'
Probably wrong, but that certainly what it feels like.
When it goes down, it will be on THEIR timetable NOT yours. They will already out the door and down the block when the building blows... (Into it's own footprint btw).
Right, the next collapse coming soon people cant even imagine. There will be no sitting back watching it play out on TV, it will be breaking down your door.
i'm just watching the gold/silver charts as traders there do their thing and drive gold straight up and silver straight down.
yes, the GDX is testing the 200dma, but from the bottom, this time. so, we hope it doesn't bounce off! silver, also, is coming up to the ceiling of its 50dma. they both suffered from the same downdraftz. this has happened so fast that the moving averages have not yet crossed, for the GDX. here is silver july contract, not spot, but it trading @ spot, pretty much: INO.com Markets - Chart for SILVER Jul 2011 (E) (NYMEX:SI.N11.E)
we are abt to get sooo inundated with more phony inflation data, i wld imagine, too. radioactive stagflation, BiCheZ. BiChFlation.
'The WHOLE thing is designed for 1 thing, to separate everyone from what little money they have left!' Exactly right.
And the other fact within that point is the whole thing is designed to prevent the 401K Bathrobe Brigades from being nervous and thinking about selling! Thats all, there is no 'market', just a ranch where 401K's are being fattened up for the slaughter, and those slaughterhouse trucks are fast approaching!
Under current market conditions, I am inclined to trade only a 25% of my trading account balance, I am 75% cash - and as soon as I can book a decent gain, I take it. Cashed out on a UEC trade with a 7% gain today...
USA will never default because it may print its money and kill anyone who doesn't accept it.
FRN is backed by guns. It's better than gold. In case of gold-backed currency receiver may only get gold in exchange. In case of FRNs, he gets next live extension credit.
Fiat money is very effective method for financing wars, so military cartel needs financial cartel. To accomplish the Gods work, financial complex needs sometimes kinetic support from military.
There is also one interesting aspect of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - they are QE0! They were made intentionally extra big and expensive. Why? Just to help inflate debt away. Most of that money comes probably directly from FED bypassing Treasury and is laundered as contracts for corporations.
There is a simply legal way to do that: FED is totally secret, and corporations involved in security operations are allowed to ignore accounting rules.
I think your basically correct..........with one exception.
The FIRST Soverign nation, that backs their currency with even 50% Gold, will make the Fed regurgitate feces.
Think how much cash will be leaving, and exchanged.
China is on course to have imported 400 tons of gold in 2011, wait till '12.
India, Russia,and Pac Rims, are sucking the markets dry.
This is one of my peeves too; and they always have to make everything simple sound sophisticated in order to suggest some lofty knowledge that the rest of us can’t comprehend. Like, when did Gambling become Active Management?
In Wall Street minds, any risk that can’t be distilled into a single index gets ignored. Otherwise it becomes too embarrassing to admit that you don’t really have a means of managing it. Once it is distilled to a single index, e.g., a benchmark commodity price, VAR, credit ratings, etc. then risk management becomes easy. You just write $20 trillion of OTC derivative hedges based on the indices and lay the contracts off on AIG.
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I thought conventional wisdom was that "markets can remain irrational longer than most participants can remain solvent" Regardless, if someone is going to shout fire in the movie theater, the best view of the show is from the sidewalk, since it doesn't matter if someone has mysteriously locked the emergency exits.
A useful chart in my opinion:
http://stockmarket618.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/2011-05-10_dow-wk_xx.png
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