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Mike Krieger Sees Widespread Panic

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Mike Krieger of KAM LP

Widespread Panic

Right now, thanks in large part to Federal Reserve policy, Uncle Sam can borrow at an average cost of just 2.5 percent. The average borrowing cost over the last three decades was 5.7 percent. Our debt is now $14 trillion and scheduled to grow to $25 trillion by the end of the decade. If interest rates normalize over that period the added interest costs in 2021 alone will be $800 billion—more than 20 times the mere $37 billion in budget cuts that tore up Congress in March. It would take virtually all of the cuts in the Ryan budget just to cover that added interest, much less to start bringing down the national debt. Unfortunately, the Fed is now in a fiscal box. A normalization of interest rates would break the Treasury. Hence, a normalization of rates really can't happen—we're stuck in a world in which the Fed must keep rates artificially low in order to prevent a budget disaster.

- Lawrence Lindsey writing in the Weekly Standard June 13, 2001 (and you think we won’t print more!!!)

QUESTION: During the Japanese lost decade in the 1990s, you strongly criticized Japan's (inaudible)policies . Recently, Larry Summers suggested in his column that the in the middle of its own lost decade. Based on those points, with Q.E. II ending, what do you think of Japan's experience and the reality facing the U.S.? Are there any historical lessons that we should be reminded about?  Thank you.

BERNANKE: Well, I'm a little bit more sympathetic to central bankers now than I was 10 years ago.

- Q&A During The Bernank’s Second Press Conference Yesterday

The Bernank Flop:  Part Deux

That’s two press conferences laden with softball questions from “the press” and two epic flops by The Bernank.  Two extremely important things that came out of the disaster that was this event yesterday.  First, I want to point your attention to the quote I pasted at the top.  In response to the question of where The Bernank stood on monetary policy in light of his prior arrogant and cocksure statements a decade earlier about how the Japanese were being too passive in their methods he stated “Well, I'm a little bit more sympathetic to central bankers now than I was 10 years ago.”  BINGO.  That was far and away the most important thing he said the whole press conference.  Why?  Well, for several reasons.  First, it was pretty much the only spontaneous unscripted thing he said the whole time.  Second, because this is him basically admitting that sitting in an ivory tower telling others how to save the free world via monetary policy was a naive and idiotic thing to do (why people still believe in central banking, I mean planning, is beyond me).  Talk is cheap and The Bernank now has had time to test his sad statist theories and guess what happened?  He failed miserably in front of the entire world.  By saying that he is “more sympathetic to central bankers” he is saying that theories are one thing and he now realizes that.  This is HUGE.  The Bernank has no clothes.

Ok, so what else did we learn?  Well, what happened after the press conference was very significant.  For one thing the stock market tanked.  Interestingly, guess what else happened?  Oil prices started to soar and closed up.  While off their highs gold and silver were also strong on the day and the gold miners were up.  This drove these guys absolutely nuts.  Remember what happened after the first disastrous press conference?  Gold soared and then flew higher again the following day.  What was The Powers That Be (TPTB) response to that?  Well they miraculously rolled out Bin Laden and then initiated the monster raid on silver immediately afterwards.  The lesson that we all learned from that prior episode is that TPTB are petulant little children.  When markets do not act as they decree they whine and lash out.  Since they possess all of the mechanisms of control they can create certain moves in the short term and “pain” for those that bet against them.  In light of that, we should have all expected a panicky response today…and boy did we get it. 

Widespread Panic

So right on cue, TPTB freaked out and showed their desperation by coordinating a 60 million barrel release of oil from OECD inventories (of which 30 million barrels is to come from the U.S Strategic Petroleum Reserves).  Brilliant strategy guys.  First of all, the world consumes around 85 million b/d of oil so this release isn’t even one day’s worth of demand.  It’s a joke.  Second of all it just demonstrates how completely desperate they are to just delay the inevitable.  Just like global leaders have shown no interest in dealing with the economic imbalances of the globe resulting from a pyramid scheme global monetary system where money consists of digital confetti that can be and is being printed into oblivion, they have NO INTEREST in dealing with the real issues of peak cheap oil.  Just as the solution to every other structural problem has been to pretend it doesn’t exist and place band-aids on cancerous tumors, their solution to real, serious long-term issues in oil are to release reserves?  My lord this is sad.

More than sad; however, this move makes me much more bullish on oil over the next two years than I was before.  First of all, the Saudi’s just said that they would increase production to 10 million barrels of day on their own (from 9.3 million b/d), effectively ending OPEC as an organization.  Because this didn’t do what the petulant children in charge wanted they resorted to this tactic.  First it was speculators.  Now it is supply and demand.  What is it really?  I’ll tell you what it is.  They have no freaking clue what they hell they are doing.  Just like The Bernank.

As a result of this action and the direction that TPTB are heading in (price controls), my ultimate forecast for where crude might go is now higher than it was.  Whereas I previously thought we would see $150-$200/b oil within the next two years I now think that it will be over $200/b.  The reason for this is simple.  The reason price controls like this do not work is because they destroy supply/demand signals, which then ends up causing supply shortages down the road.  Let’s think about this pathetic move from two angles.  First, from the perspective of an oil company.  Oil exploration, development and production is extraordinarily capital intensive.  From the exploration to the development phase of a large field we are talking at least 5-10 years.  So let me ask you.  If you are running an oil company and you see this type of action are you more or less willing to drill that marginal production or exploration well?  The answer of course is much less willing.  Furthermore, we have recently seen cost overruns all over the commodity space.  Let’s look at what just happened with Woodside Petroleum’s flagship Pluto project offshore Australia.  They just announced a 25% cost overrun and a 15 month delay to the project and Standard & Poor’s took down the credit outlook for the company as a result.  I will tell you without any shadow of a doubt that this policy by the “authorities” to control oil prices via manipulation will kill the supply side relative to demand and cause oil prices to ultimately soar to unimaginable heights.  Sad but true.  This is Why Central Planning Fails 101. 

Then what about the demand side?  Well of course by unnaturally knocking down the price of the most important commodity in the world demand will be maintained at artificially high levels for longer.  So demand is kept up artificially while supply growth constrained.  Can you say complete unmitigated disaster.

This is all quite timely since it touches upon issues I discussed with Max Keiser last week.  Here are the links, please have a listen.

Speaking of Panic…

Speaking of panic, it looks like after a couple of weeks of begging and pleading I have scored a ticket to the Widespread Panic show at Red Rocks this weekend.  Apparently some guy that was driving up from Memphis for the show can’t make it so I get his seat.  I am supposed to pick it up at the show so we shall see how this works out…Anyway, have a great weekend!  God Bless the Central Planners.  They are gonna need it. 

Peace and wisdom,


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Thu, 06/23/2011 - 13:56 | 1395627 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

complete unmitigated disaster

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:01 | 1395664 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

Widespread Panic....for the SpreadHeads out there


Don't tell the band, the devil's on his way....

Don't tell the band, just let the music play....


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:20 | 1395711 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

How are you going to junk a post that features Widespread Panic (which was brought up by Mr. Krieger in the post) and is the song that defines our times?


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:20 | 1395715 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Never sweat the junk touchers

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:40 | 1395818 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Desparately looking to discredit Zerohedgers

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:33 | 1396432 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bernanke is desperately tring to confuse the rational consumer, which is funny, because the consumer is not rational.  The Bernanke Paradox!

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:45 | 1396657 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

People are missing the bigger picture IMHO.  The strategic petroleum reserve is only supposed to be tapped if there's some sort of disruption to the global oil supply.  There is no current disruption of significance in the world oil supply.  Hence, that the Obama Admistration is tapping it may be a sign that a major disruption is being ANTICIPATED rather than this being a response to high oil prices. 

Something may be up w/Iran:


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:49 | 1396699 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 My response; buying votes; as usual.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:56 | 1396724 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

If anyone has bought a vote for Obama, they were ripped off...except the banksters that bought him off, they are happy with their purchase.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 19:36 | 1396961 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Tapping SPR due to "Anticipated" disruptions?  LMFAO.  I don't think so.

This is another one of those manipulative "gotta show no inflation" tools the govvy is instituting.  Further evidence that QE3 is coming.

If the gov't didn't anticipate the largest credit bubble of all time, nor anticipate banks going tits up unless bailed out, nor anticipate unemployment skyrocketing, all of which are domestic problems, what makes you think this idiotic gov't led by Mr. "HOPE" can anticipate foreign events?

No.  You're wrong.  This is total, unbridled market manipulation to save face, ass, and anything else the fraudulent elite have done to mankind by helping their insolvent banking buddies.


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 20:50 | 1397135 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Obama has gone full tard. Dimishes the emergency supply and provides hardly a ripple in the global supply.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 21:20 | 1397213 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

By 'anticipate' I mean that Israel has informed the U.S. or the U.S. will even be an active participant in air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. 

Fri, 06/24/2011 - 08:37 | 1398065 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

Silly rabbits; instant spike down in oil prices. Of course, it's temporary, and will be right back where it is now in August (or even mid-July), but...

In the meantime, they calculate CPI. Especially the "volatile energy component". Now Bambam and Ben can tout that "inflation has been tamed", so they can resume printing. Oh, and they'll save billions in SS and other inflation-adjusted benefits by using the manipulated number.

They're evil, but not stupid.

(BTW: captcha was -32 x 24, and then tells me that -768 is wrong because it's four characters long, and can only be two. What am I supposed to do, round it?!)

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 18:01 | 1396718 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

World production has peaked.  That is pretty huge.  Yet that is an unmitigatable problem, so Obama acts foolishly once again.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 20:29 | 1397086 monkeyshine
monkeyshine's picture

I think you are on to something there.  But if you are right, it is mostly in spirit.  I, like others who replied to you, don't believe there is something overt that will happen.  But all too often we forget just how big a stage this really is. 

If it has to do with Iran, then it has less to do with us and more to do with Saudi Arabia.  (Though then I guess it does have to do with us) Let us not forget that SA is pretty much as war with Iran right now.  Sunni vs Shia.  Iran is backing revolution in the Saudi Penninsula particularly Yemen and Bahrain.  Saudi sent troops to Bahrain. Iran basically took over Gaza and Lebanon, and is backing Syria's Assad. Assad comes from a sect sympathetic to Shia though his country is majority Sunni.  Point of it all is that this so-called "Arab Spring" is nothing of the sort, and these two regional powers Iran and SA are jockeying for the power position, and fighting proxy battles.

NOW what does that have to do with the oil? Well, Saudi oil is much cheaper to dig up than Iranian oil, so lower prices hurt Iran more than Saudi.  Saudi has a lot more Sovereign Wealth, along with their partners in the GCC. Iran has a lot of oil but they also have 75 million mouths to feed.  SA has only 25 million. 

So I'd day there is something there.  Anything they can do to put the pinch on Iran they will do.  If they can get the price of oil back under $80 (doubtful, but they will try and try even lower) they will cause much more damage to Iran than any of the sanctions so far. 

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 21:02 | 1397172 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Yeah, when Joseph was advising the ancient Egyptians to store grain for the seven bad years coming he would've settled for a 10% grain release to stabilize prices, right? And then during the famine...oops!

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 21:43 | 1397259 trav7777
trav7777's picture

well he did, and because his clan had favored nepotistic access to grain, they were able to dispossess the entire egyptian nation of their land, becoming barons.  Eventually, there was another holocaust as a result.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 21:00 | 1396847 macholatte
macholatte's picture

Bernanke is desperately tring to confuse the rational consumer, which is funny, because the consumer is not rational.  The Bernanke Paradox!


here ya go......

Rand Paul vs Bureaucrat



Thu, 06/23/2011 - 18:45 | 1396842 SilverDosed
SilverDosed's picture

Because WSP SUX

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:22 | 1395725 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Big Wreck - "Broken Hands"

Whose hands, I don't know.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:19 | 1395729 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

The band name is fitting for our times as well!

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:28 | 1396407 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

geez did they hire someone from goldman sachs to junk everyone today


The writing is on the wall...this weekend or next weekend we will have a new system in place looks like by 4th of july

gold to the moon

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:26 | 1395743 InMisesITrust
InMisesITrust's picture

Aint life grand.......

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:39 | 1395800 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

The Butterfly should now say One word....



Get it up and running. And all our troubles go away.... I'll fly away... oh...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:06 | 1396314 Nathan Muir
Nathan Muir's picture

Give ole Palin's talking points a rest bud.  All the oil in ANWAR is at best a short term fix. 

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 20:13 | 1397059 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Fuck you. Palin was in Diapers when they were arguing about ANWAR back in CARTER's Adminstration.

Fri, 06/24/2011 - 00:02 | 1397512 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

The oil everywhere is a short term fix. Maybe we should stop all drilling for oil. You fucking dimwits don't even know why the land in ANWAR is any more precious than the Bakken fields in North Dakota or the deserts in Saudi Arabia. Some dipshit enviromental told you it was off limits and you shit-for-brains blindly repeat

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:38 | 1396439 ian807
ian807's picture

"...In 1998, the USGS estimated that between 5.7 and 16.0 billion barrels (2.54×109 m3) of technically recoverable crude oil and natural gas liquids are in the coastal plain area of ANWR"

The USA uses 9 billion barrels of oil a year. All of Anwar, even if it actually produced the maximum amount of 16 billion barrels, isn't even 2 years of supply for the USA.

There's this thing called "Google" and these new fangled inventions called "calculators." You really ought to give them a try. You'll avoid a lot of personal embarrassment.


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:44 | 1396663 Monedas
Monedas's picture

It will take them 20 years to get that 2 year supply to market ! The pipeline is already built ! 5% a year of Anwar's oil is something when added on to existing sources !

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 20:17 | 1397061 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Libya's oil was reported to be what? Half of Italy's use and hardly anywhere else? ANWAR is bigger than Libya.

Fri, 06/24/2011 - 00:03 | 1397506 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Saudi Arabia has enough oil to supply the world for only 3 years, so they should stop drilling for oil and it wouldn't affect the world supply at all. You fucking idiots are hilarious. Any one oil field by itself is a very small part of the market, but if you shut dozens of them down for environmental reasons, it becomes a huge part of the market.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 21:15 | 1397200 DRT RD
DRT RD's picture

What it's like washing windows when you know that there are pigeons on the roof!

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:50 | 1396254 doesmybuttlookf...
doesmybuttlookfatinthis's picture

WWIII?  I can see it over oil.  It would be simple for them to grab it once we're out of Afghanistan. First Russia and China will declare war on isreal and march across Iran, Iraq, and of course we can't forget Saudi Arabia.  The dumb shit arabs and persians would open the doors wide for this, and once the ruskies and chi-coms get to the boarder of Israel *BANG* Peace. At least for a while. But just to be sure they will stay and negotiate (with a gun) a new oil contract. Now whats left of the oil fields belong to China and Russia.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:49 | 1396467 Partisan
Partisan's picture

Are you serious?  China can't even transport its troops across its nation, let alone twice that to the Levant.  Both nations lack force projection.  That's just dumb.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:49 | 1396654 hambone
hambone's picture

US has 11 active aircraft carriers plus 2 more in construction...China is just completing it's first (it purchased an old Soviet carrier and is supposedly retrofitting it...and that's more planned).  US also has 3 "amphibious assualt" ships (helicopter aircraft carriers).

That means rest of the world now has 11 carriers (UK, Brazil, France, Italy (2), India, Spain (2), Thailand, Russia, and now China.

And China is our great worry? - what a joke.

We are our own worst enemy.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 21:12 | 1397184 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

General Hambone - you are fighting the last (century's) war.  Carriers are the new battleships.  Look up 'Sunburn missle'.

Fri, 06/24/2011 - 00:12 | 1397523 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Ever heard of Phalanx and Seadart?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 20:15 | 1397063 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

That is what you think Sir.

The Chinese snap a finger a millions are putting boots on the ground that week.

How do you think they managed to fill North Korea with such vast numbers while Mc Arthur was shooting off his big gold bejeweled mouth about the successes.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 20:30 | 1397104 ratso
ratso's picture

Mao has been dead for a while now and China Inc has become the new dynasty papered over with a thin veneer of socialist rhetoric.

China a threat - hardly.  Evidence will emerge over the next 18 months as they will have a really hard economic landing.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 13:56 | 1395635 Ancona
Ancona's picture

I predict mayhem. Any day now....

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:15 | 1395694 eureka
eureka's picture


"This is HUGE.  The Bernank has no clothes..." 

This is HUGE - US EMPIRE HAS NO CLOTHES - US collapses next 12 months.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:55 | 1396719 ratso
ratso's picture

Just for the record

There is no world conspiracy in the works.

Economic collapse is not on the horizon.

The sky is not falling.

Bernanke is not a moron.

Those who sow fear are invested in that outcome.

We will just muddle through until the next technological epoch unfolds.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 18:09 | 1396763 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

I think this is the great example of why so many pin their hopes on the "as-yet-unknown-future-technology-fix". We just pop together the as-yet-unknown free energy device into the as-yet-unknown spaceship and fly to the as-yet-unknown destination and *wham!* populate the galaxy.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 21:17 | 1397196 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Those who sow complacency in the face of chaotic, violent, systemic break down are invested in that outcome.  You and the Bernark for example.


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 21:36 | 1397246 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Is that you Timmay?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 19:20 | 1396920 Timmay
Timmay's picture

Let's clean that up  bit, -US collapses Dec 21, 2012.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 19:41 | 1396986 Mr Creosote
Mr Creosote's picture

How 'bout a riot?

Note the fine print on the album cover

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 13:55 | 1395640 The Axe
The Axe's picture

ZH continues to provide excellent info..on the sad state of the economy...However..the tenor of the market tells me the turkey is very far from being done...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 13:58 | 1395651 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

So you expect more upside in stocks?

Who will buy US debt when the FED stops QE2?

Where will the capital flow from to pump up the markets?

Americans are broke!

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:06 | 1395667 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Operation Iranian Liberation


problem solved...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:30 | 1395763 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

You're right, I think. War looks like the only "way out" at this point. The music has been playing a long time and there are very few chairs left.

Agree or disagree - stupid junkers.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:34 | 1395788 kito
kito's picture

sing it spastica:

War, huh, yeah
What is it good for
Absolutely nothing
War, huh, yeah
What is it good for
Absolutely nothing
Say it again, y'all

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:40 | 1396185 CH1
CH1's picture

Well, war is a great way to reduce your national debt... if your enemy is holding.

China bombs a ship ot two, and the good ole US of A can cancel all the debt held by that big, bad, yellow monster.

Now, how are they gonna sucker China into a fast, small war that doesn't ruin their chances in the next election?

Yup, politics is evil.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:00 | 1396285 Steaming_Wookie_Doo
Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

Ah, only so lucky to lose a ship or two. What's your opinion if some tactical nukes end up landing in NY or DC? Losing NY would cost trillions by itself. Losing DC might actually save trillions in the long run. Of course, the psychopaths who contemplate such things don't actually worry about anyone else's suffering ("pit me an olive, boy").

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:23 | 1396397 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Not only that, word has it that China has enough missiles alone to take out any US ship anywhere near it. Except for launching raids on third world countries, fleet warfare is no longer a factor.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 20:18 | 1397071 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

China knows if She takes one of our Carriers out, it is an act of war. The best hope we can do is maintain survillence on her Boomers and keep upgrading Burkes, Ticos and all other revelant ships to ICBM Missile defense at sea in addition to what is already in place.

China is so invested in Taiwan and vice versa, we would be wise not to pick a fight in that area. Sometimes I think the big Gobi desert would be where the fighting happens if any.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:33 | 1396424 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

What about a whole bunch of little wars all over the place?

I think the current conundrum is how to have a proper economic leveling war without Dr. Strangelove. I don't think it's possible.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:50 | 1396687 I_ate_the_crow
I_ate_the_crow's picture

Yes, this is the ultimate issue they are facing - how to conquer the world without triggering MAD. For those not amenable to IMF or World Bank neo-colonialism, CIA orchestrated and USA funded color revolutions was a good place to start. Credit where evil credit is due....

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:46 | 1396689 kito
kito's picture

obama and the iea announced the release of the reserves to make up for the shortfall lost in libya. the people now think, gee--libya must be important, maybe we should get our boys in there and regain stability.  boots on ground in libya by end of year.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:52 | 1396486 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

I call it bonus round.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:44 | 1396669 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

Acceptable cost to TPTB provided that the blast doesn't hit the financial district. They'd probably "sacrifice" all the serfs in Brooklyn or Queens if it meant getting out of this hock. 


I don't think the causalty count is relevant (does that impact ROI??). They are more concerned that the Hamptons, Greenwich, and Palm Beach are left intact, and that the insfrastructure for controlling the remaining "useless eaters" is pretty much unharmed. 

In fact, China killing 150 million worthless consumers would probably be looked upon as a net positive. 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 16:52 | 1403573 Marty Rothbard
Marty Rothbard's picture

As a son  of confederate veterans, I see it as only fitting, that the parts of the country that devastated  the Confederate States of America, for the crime of exercising their liberties, and thus opened the way to empire, bear the brunt of an attack on the empire.  In the words of General Lee, "The South shall rise again." 


PS Lincoln instituted the first draft, the first income tax, and was the fitst to deny the right of Habeus Corpus to nonPOW American citizens, imprisoning judges for the crime of ruling against him.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 19:32 | 1396952 BillyTheBlade
BillyTheBlade's picture

Interesting point, however the flaw in your logic.  Our current system is unsustainable.  It is only sustained by borrowing from China.  So yes we may wipe our debt clean if they attack us, but a collapse is inevitable.  Oh, and remember the missile that was shot off the coast of CA a while back.  I think the Chinese were suspected.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:49 | 1396701 Monedas
Monedas's picture

War is everything ! Your dichondra lawn is at war with the dandelions ! Pink tree frogs are at war with peuce tree frogs ! War is life ! All life is at territorial war all the time ! Peace doesn't exist for most life forms ! Peace is a luxury of human societies to give us time to invent new weapons ! War is evolution ! War is what's for dinner ! There is no war on the Moon......there is no life on the Moon ! War is Life ! Life is War ! Come over sometime, I'll make you a Bloody Mary and you can watch my dogs eat a few kittens ! Monedas 2011 Happiness is Hoarding !

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:41 | 1395823 Raphio
Raphio's picture

I think that would be the end of the US Empire. Tactically, apparently many pentagon studies have called it a no-go, Geo-strategically, China and Russia would draw a line in the sand, Economically, it would tax the budget too much and severely overstretch resources....Morally... uh, WWIII anyone? The hawks better be blowing smoke up our asses, because this would be the Stupidest, most desperate act imaginable.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:00 | 1395917 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

What if we call it "kinetic humanitarian assistance"?


They could always stage a false flag attack and blame it on Iran, besides, I think the global elite chickenhawks WANT WW3.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:44 | 1396222 Raphio
Raphio's picture

You can call it "chicken soup" if you like... No way the US will put boots on the ground in Iran. It is a nation of 75 million and the Russians will shit if there is a push into the Caspian. Iran is a bogeyman to advance US/Israeli interests. I really can't see it happening.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:18 | 1396358 Raphio
Raphio's picture

A complex issue to be sure, but here is interesting, if a little dated, info on Central Asian energy dynamics..........

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:45 | 1396476 Raphio
Raphio's picture

And here is a great synopsis on why the US cannot win a non nuclear war against Iran

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:10 | 1396548 eureka
eureka's picture

The US can't win any war; US has lost all wars since WWII - and US is losing the current war, which is not the "war on terror"/etc, but the financial war, which zerohedge attempts to cover every day (THANK YOU) - the very war which will end US empire.

Oh wow, there is such a thing as karma? *

*(for those to dense, read: "Confessions of An Economic Hitman"

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 20:11 | 1397043 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

the "US" isn't in the war business to "win" - it's about perpetual war for corporate profits.

and this, quite honestly, is working out fine for them.

(good rant, just adding to it!)

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:10 | 1395948 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

"this would be the Stupidest, most desperate act imaginable."

I felt ok until you said that!

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:09 | 1395942 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hugh, no land war in Iran, no way.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:44 | 1396221 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

I'll take even money on bombs.


Lay me 4-1 odds on boots?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:46 | 1396462 Partisan
Partisan's picture

100 to 1 odds we don't put conventional boots on ground in Iran.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:44 | 1396470 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

including spec ops, CIA, or UN?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:52 | 1396487 Partisan
Partisan's picture

Conventional, as in infantry brigades.  Does not include SOF, SAD, etc.

And judging from previous missions, saying the UN has "boots on ground" anywhere is questionable. 

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:02 | 1396513 Partisan
Partisan's picture

There's also no way the UN would step in to solve any conflict in Iran; not in a meaningful way at least.  UN are peacekeepers.  Anyone going into Iran would need to be a warfighter. 

Frankly, that's just not a war we're going to fight with boots.  We'll bomb them back to the stone age and lock them in a civil war over the next decade, but there'll be no invasion.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:00 | 1396518 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

100 to 1. That's banking odds, Lol.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:07 | 1396553 Partisan
Partisan's picture

Yes, I'm currently writing the US gov't Conflict Default Swaps and Collateralized Damage Obligations on Iran.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:12 | 1396579 eureka
eureka's picture

US consumers will die in their beloved supermarkets and malls - IF your idiotic scenario plays out - against all reason.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 18:09 | 1396756 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Scumbag Obama will do anything for the Bilderbergers and PNAC... nukes it our future?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:03 | 1395668 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Possibly those foreign banks who were provided gifts from Uncle Ben the last two years? Along with stealth Fed 'liquidity' swaps and outright purchases. There are many possibilities for continuing the insanity.

Never underestimate the imagination of desperate central bankers.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:14 | 1395687 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

I am convinced the stealth liquidity swaps is how they kept the music going between QE1 and QE2.

So I agree they have secret agreements to swap around the garbage to each other. I think this is what Ron Paul knows and wants audited and why the Printer fought the Ron Paul language (HR 1207) tooth and nail.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:52 | 1395881 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

passin the paper potato while the oil continues to flow

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:06 | 1395675 Boston
Boston's picture

Excuse me, but QE2 is pretty much over Treasury prices today are a lot HIGHER than they were a few months ago---when the Fed was still in the middle of its buying program.

Seems to me, there are no shortage of Treasury buyers....especially when they're busy dumping their equities, commodities, high yield, etc.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:08 | 1395679 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Ya and pretty soon the Fed will be buying ALL the treasuries.


No shortage of Treasury buyers? You fucking serious?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:17 | 1395703 Boston
Boston's picture

So let's see, you'reimplying that Treasury prices are skyrocketing today bec. the Fed bought a

What's POMO for today?  1-2 billion.  

You're going to argue this itty bitty operation caused yields to plunge today?

Talk about fucking serious!

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:14 | 1396345 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

You forgot to normalize for GREECE.  Take the EU sinkhole out of the way (soon enough) and the USD stands alone as the most-tattered fiat.

You have to realize how much liquidity is washing around in the fully-captive TBTF.  It is nothing to shape the indexes and align the algos the way it's needed to play the puppet-masters storyline.

Just look at today - a $4+ dive in WTI on a 30M bbl dump from the SPR?  C'mon.  That's chewed up in the 4th of July holiday.

Equities and Treasuries are like those Outer Bank homes on stilts with a Cat 4 bearing down.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:42 | 1395833 nantucket
nantucket's picture

i suspect he is.  i suspect he is falsely equating a VERY short time period as significant for something that matters, i.e, longer term (hint, more than a day or a few weeks). 

The bottom line is that the govt spends $1.4 Trillion more than it collects per year.  The govt has to get that money from somehwhere.  The Fed bought about $800 billion of that in the past year.  That buyer is going away.

Anyway, there are always "enough" treasury buyers to buy the's just that pesky little thing called an interest rate that is required to entice the buyers.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:08 | 1396323 kito
kito's picture

youre changing the flow of boston's argument. his point was that there are plenty of buyers for our treasuries, as today clearly demonstrates. and rates are not an issue, now, as perceived safety in our notes is pavlov's bell.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:40 | 1396441 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

What % of the last 9 months of Treasuries were flipped back to the Fed?  70%?  It's asinine to make any inference on one day or one week's behavior to say there is a waiting line of Treasury buyers.

If it ain't the Fed (wink, wink), and ain't Japan, and China is backing off, where does the demand come from? 

And rates not an issue?  Negative real returns abound.  Treasuries are at best very short-term parking spots for liquidity.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 18:49 | 1396852 kito
kito's picture

just because the fed is hoggin all the space doesnt mean there arent others to pick up the slack later on. thats flawed reasoning. if i wake up everyday at 6am to buy out the local bakery's days worth of bread, does it mean others dont want it? 

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 22:09 | 1397306 unununium
unununium's picture

It does if your express purpose is to pick up the slack because others don't want it.

You cannot be a Fed shill, you're not even telling the right lies.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 17:01 | 1403584 Marty Rothbard
Marty Rothbard's picture

Sure, the primary dealers buy them, and then, flip them to the Fed.


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:27 | 1395748 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

More upside in stocks?  No, more dollar devaluation, and more loss of world reserve currency status meaning dollars that have been parked doing nothing for 30 years now want to buy equities and commodities (copper, silver, wheat, etc.) and currencies (specifically gold).  They come flooding home, prices go up, specifically gold and commodities, much less so gov't debt and real estate.

I would suggest to Americans: "There are other stock markets out there"

And there are currently sales on quite a few Canadian gold/silver miners.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:51 | 1395877 kito
kito's picture

oh baby baby, just because some of us in the camp dont feel the end is near yet, doesnt automatically make us bulls. the market still hasnt tanked, its up a percent, down a percent, but no dive yet. weve had quite a few false alarms since april, yet stocks have bounced back. look at today, even with the scare, treasuries are up (many are still buying them), dollar is up, so people still run to the safety of the one eyed king. the u.s. is the last to crumble. we still have to work through europe before the bond vigilantes turn on the u.s. 

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:54 | 1395889 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

You're full of shit.

The market is lower in absolute terms today than it was 18 years ago.

97.89% of daytraders, except for RoboTrader's Mom, are even worse off than buy & hold bagholders.

Spread the ass rapage deep and hard.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:56 | 1395901 Greeny
Greeny's picture

Don't talk for everyone, loser.. Keep hiding in your hole, rat..

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:01 | 1395907 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Were you a former broker at Merrill Lynch or EF Hudson? Or Bear Stearns or perhaps Yamaichi Securities, greenyshart?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:08 | 1395953 kito
kito's picture

what i do see, after no qe announcement yesterday, is gold (safe haven?) and silver getting decapitated today, yet stocks only down a percentage point. so if the stock market has been amped up purely on fed juice, why not a sharp selloff? if the american consumer has nothing left now, why such great earnings from bed bath and beyond? why is fed ex sticking to guidance? and if nobody has faith in our treasuries now, why are they up today on a day to run for cover? please give us some truth in the sunshine...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:14 | 1395972 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Make sure you keep tabs on a longer timeline, chief.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:19 | 1396048 kito
kito's picture

funny, but i didnt see an answer from you. only the self serving "go to" response about what the future holds...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:23 | 1396083 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Short answer:  Long physical, short paper.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:28 | 1396122 kito
kito's picture

you may very well be right, but its still a long way off. if they can drag out greece, such an overt disaster for the entire world to witness, this long, it will likely be years and years before it hits our shores. and in the meantime, this country will still float along the waves of stagnation, where we will see mixed economic news for some time.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:42 | 1396233 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Extend & Pretend works fantastically until it doesn't.

There are leagues of 30 and 40 year large AUM guys that left the building and returned all client funds over just the last 12 months, but that was probably just to spend more time with the fam.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:21 | 1396374 The Profit Prophet
The Profit Prophet's picture

Arguing about short term moves in the totally manipulated world asset markets may be fun......but it really is a complete waste of brain power don't ya think?

T.E.I.N. everyone! 

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:10 | 1396572 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Are you for real. Greece will default. They won't get past July.

Even if they sell their ass, they're only (initially) getting €6m so far, not €12m, yet they need €18.2m, just to get through July. If Germany wants to piss it's money away, carry on, but Euro default is very soon. Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Belgium are a mess, and France and the UK are very close behind. The US will follow a Euro collapse.

Interesting times are upon us.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:14 | 1396573 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Are you for real. Greece will default. They won't get past July.

Even if they sell their ass, they're only (initially) getting €6m so far, not €12m, yet they need €18.2m, just to get through July. If Germany wants to piss it's money away, carry on, but Euro default is very soon. Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Belgium are a mess, and France and the UK are very close behind. The US will follow a Euro collapse.

Interesting times are upon us.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:44 | 1396229 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

kito, you related to Joe Kernen?  Sound just like him.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:11 | 1396339 kito
kito's picture

my cousin

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:39 | 1396440 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Is Greeny your red headed step child?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:54 | 1396707 kito
kito's picture

nope, hes my sibling, just like my ma and pa are.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 20:03 | 1397040 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

You may be right about the long timeline, I can't dispute that.  The only thing I'll point out here is that there are a lot of households that are apparently not making their mortgage payments, and squatting in their homes.

I don't know how much your mortgage payment is, or if you even have one- but I know that if I was not paying mine, it would free up all kinds of money for consumer goods.  

Eventually, someone is going to come around to collect those homes, and the people shopping at Bed, Bath and Beyond are going to have to go back to paying rent- and it's not likely to be cheap if they want decent places after trashing their credit scores.

Until then, though, those consumers can do a lot to prop up the ailing consumer good markets.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:08 | 1395960 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Nope.  Gold has done much better than stocks.

Watch the BIG MOVES in gold coming soon.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:18 | 1396042 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

now now now greeny. you're writing like an american. remember, english is not your first language. you're sounding like smailes.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:02 | 1395883 Greeny
Greeny's picture

1) "So you expect more upside in stocks?" YES! 2) "Who will buy US debt when the FED stops QE2?" US FED as usual. more questions? One down day and all got shitting their pants.. Keep selling, punks, I'll take your shares.


CSCO is now UP 5 cents Bitchez!

Die, doomsters, die..




Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:17 | 1396026 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

remember to stay in role greeny. english as you've told us is not your first language. you're sounding exactly like an american. you gotta spell words wrong, use improper sentence structure, etc etc .... otherwise everybody will realize you for the poseur that you are.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:35 | 1396110 Greeny
Greeny's picture

Why all this personal bullshit? You have something to say on the subject? F* OFF already. ("you gotta spell words wrong, use improper sentence structure, etc etc") Is that any closer to real American Language? Or misspelled again? See, if you criticize anything I'm saying, you surely understand clearly
what I'm talking about. Go back to the subject, dude, I wouldn't
stand personal assault.. Jokes are fine.. No problems.. Ok?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:33 | 1396155 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

because you're a fraud. pretty simple. must be hard to keep up with all the different id's and the role you gotta play.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:33 | 1396163 kito
kito's picture

dont take it personally, remember we are all anonymous

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:38 | 1396202 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

true. but most of us have only one identity. greeny is probably the fifth iteration of somebody at zh like hamy wanger, smailes and others. they think they're clever. but they're easy to spot.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 16:51 | 1396482 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I miss Harry. Recent trolling has ranged from boring to weird. Good trolls are hard to find.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 18:30 | 1396459 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Come on, most people here are straight shooters, and not those who are a waste of space changing ID's all the time and spewing their Kudlow Goldilocks propaganda.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 17:13 | 1403601 Marty Rothbard
Marty Rothbard's picture

I wonder how many of our "trolls" are employed by a Ca  s Sunstein Psyops group, working for Obama.  Anyone got any idea?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:19 | 1396015 ImNotARobot
ImNotARobot's picture

The banks are going to buy US debt with all of the cash that they are sitting on.  The can must be kicked down the road until at least the 2012 elections.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:33 | 1396129 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

was that an in-flight avatar change, b_B? 

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:22 | 1396062 The Axe
The Axe's picture

The market is a tool to used to create wealth...wealth protects your can buy silver,gold, ammo...or just missed a huge turn. i made big profits in nok,rimm,csco  3 over beat-up stocks  I bot silver for a trade...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 13:56 | 1395646 FOREX loop.
FOREX loop.'s picture

I think any panic thats been stirred up has been quelled by the gas prices, i agree with this guy:

Basically, I think the sheep are going to be placated by the droping gas prices and etc. to not notice while the noose tightens over the summer. Then BAM that last ditch attempt with QE3 or equivlaent and lights out.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:58 | 1395908 False Capital
False Capital's picture

Why must QE3 be the end of it? They'll try to keep this "deflation" / inflation pseudo-cycle going for as long as possible.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 13:56 | 1395647 entendance
entendance's picture

And the riot dog Loukanikos (which translates to "Sausage" in English) is on the road again...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:34 | 1395781 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

The riot dog is the best!

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:59 | 1395895 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Riot dog is back? Thank God he's alright! I thought for sure they'd find him flaoting in a hot tub.

Riot Dog, Bitchez!

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:00 | 1395657 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture


The PM manipulation guys have been steadily reducing the amount of registered Silver and Gold for a while now. Then in between PM beat downs they inform average Joe that they can no longer use leverage in the OTC markets to 'buy' Gold. All the while QE2 is winding down with no replacement in sight. Salt in the rapidly unwinding wealth effect of the last two years and other assorted 'signs' and it's beginning to stink in here.

Will someone please open a window before I die from the stench? Rotting fiat corpses are not my idea of fun and games.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:00 | 1395660 r101958
r101958's picture

Yes indeed. This is what happens when you try to manipulate the market for a finite resource.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:08 | 1395665 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

BERNANKE: Well, I'm a little bit more sympathetic to central bankers now than I was 10 years ago.

aww, c'mon!  under the circumstances, this is wonderfully satanic.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:46 | 1395828 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Mahogany row attitude. You're done Ben

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:10 | 1395949 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Shows you that anyone can sit in an arm chair and pontificate thro' their arse. Much like our media and their exfarts with their exfart analysis these days.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:44 | 1396243 CH1
CH1's picture

It's all about the appearance of status... and the suckers who respond to it.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:13 | 1395669 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

Even if Benny and the Inkjets were free from the immense political pressures they face, their pseudoscience theories wouldn't amount to anything.

If these greybeards were so great at guiding an economy, then they wouldn't need their special privileged levers. They should have no problem proving their prowess by competing with entrepeneurs on the market: having the opportunity of being rewarded with financial gains for speeding the economy to equillibrium, and facing the risk of financial losses and liquidation for failure.

That they want to fix the price of some economic goods, like loanable funds, but not that of other goods, like dentrifice, speaks to the inconsistency of their "science".

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:09 | 1395961 stewie
stewie's picture

The point missed is all they are tryin to do is make truck loads of risk-free money.  They don't care so much about such things as the economy, as long as most people can make their interest payments, they get their free-money.  

When widespread interest payments cannot be met, they must be reduced artificially, and they are.  QEx has no other purpose, and can be continued until the competition calls foul play.

When the competition calls foul play, they must be spanked, and they will be.  Welcome to WW3.





Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:09 | 1395673 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Super post. Did not tie this idotic move in oil reserves with price. Well done.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:07 | 1395677 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

"peak cheap oil" ?

Have you heard what Lindsey Williams said to Alex Jones about Prudhoe Bay, Alaska and it's allegedly huge reserve of petroleum that can be extracted at a cost of 60c/b ?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:10 | 1395685 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yep.... sitting underneath the Skittle Shitting Caribou farm....

Do you really believe in fairy tales?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:27 | 1395749 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Oh yes, yes I do!  Palin-Bachmann promised me unlimited cheap oil if I just drill everywhere and worship Mammon!

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:38 | 1396201 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

don't you mean "worship Mormon"?

ah, no, sorry, that's Glenn Beck.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:02 | 1396514 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

wouldn't mind drilling there.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:15 | 1395691 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Alaska pipeline throughput now reduced to a point that viscosity is an issue. 

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:17 | 1395721 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Don't worry there's a technological miracle for that too.

Any day now...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 14:28 | 1395753 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Yes, indeed.  Each spring we will detonate a series of small nuclear devices along the Alaska Pipeline.  Oil will be propelled through it at hypersonic speeds, alleviating the constipation at the North Slope, and allowing for days, nay even weeks of SUV driving in the lower 48.

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