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Mike Krieger's Latest Interview With Max Keiser

Tyler Durden's picture


Just because it is appropriate that the two guys who came up with the "Crash JPM, Buy Silver" meme should get some exposure tonight. In this edition of Press TV's On the Edge with Max Keiser, Max, as
usual, highlights the bad conditions the US economy is in. He says the
fall of the dollar is imminent and ties the latest events in the Middle
East to the US economic policies. His guest, Zero Hedge regular Michael Krieger, believes
that the unrest will spill over to the US as the world economy is
"co-centric." He further elaborates on the competition between the US
and the giant China which is taking over the rest of the world and is
expected to turn the next superpower. Enjoy the show.

Part 1:

Part 2:

Part 3:


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Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:33 | 983945 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

HAARP experiments baby, get ready for liftoff!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:27 | 984285 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

some video's and pics from the earthquake. for those that have not seen them they are stunning.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:49 | 984329 Hedge Jobs
Hedge Jobs's picture

Yeah, now compare the collapsed steel and concrete buildings in NZ to the collapsed WTC towers in NY! NZ is what collapsed buildings look like. WTC is what professionally demolished buildings look like.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 01:19 | 984387 The Rock
The Rock's picture


Tue, 02/22/2011 - 07:45 | 984601 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture


Was it Dr. Sandi who said words to the effect that ... all those TV shows where they pay demolition experts to drop a building in it's footprint are BS.  The collapse of the WTC towers proves that  anybody can do it. 

Even crashing planes into steel frame skyscrapers will, according to the official conspiracy story, amazingly, drop the wreckage into it's own footprint.  And drop neighboring Bldg7 not hit by any plane into it's own footprint as well. 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 20:58 | 983609 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

What's the deal with those coins, Max?  Did you get your commission yet?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:01 | 983615 Bearster
Bearster's picture

Keiser strikes me as a troublemaker, doing it for the shadenfraude.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:35 | 984127 artinlight
artinlight's picture

I admire his message but you could not be more right.  

I have been permanently denied access to post on his blog.  Why?  

I did get to post a few "you are an idiot to say the earth is melting" (I do clarify that humans killing so much of earth's life is wrong/something to focus on). He loves to spark the red vs. blue in this arguement then deny it when it serves him.

I will not accept (and I tried to point out) his pointing the finger at Americans in one instance then using the word 'us' in the same breath.  Who is this 'chicken hawk' who is too scared to step foot in his homeland - and is far from forth coming as to why.

When asked his first question at the Cheviot meeting he failed to answer the question and finished by stating that his audience is a group and therefore is a mob and he is working for a riot. Who does he dream of being Sid Vicious or Kurt Cobain?  Dudes were huge losers as people and I feel the same toward Max (and feel sorry for Stacey as she seems so weak).

Max has little confidence of his manhood (just by the look of him - and the way he screams - which is funnier than Jerry Sienfield).  He constantly posts soft porn (good looking chicks never viewed in an artistic light) to his blog that are just for shock.  

One thing he ain't - as far as I can tell - is a red boolded American with a spine to stand in the land he hates yet gave him EVERYTHING he has.  He is just looking to recruit people that can help fulfill his statist dreams - in a country/city known for it's spinless/weak/self serving men.  

Dude is way smart, delivers the clearest message and is the absolute best at entertaining

Never the less solutions are not in his agenda - I do believe shadenfraude is (had to look up that one).



Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:39 | 984149 Blindweb
Blindweb's picture

France, one of the only countries on the planet where the government is afraid of the people.

U.S.A, where 30% of the world's resources go to 5% of the world's population; because we're 6 times more intelligent and productive than the rest of them.  /sarcasm

Max is one of the few people, besides Tyler,  who can make connections across intellectual disciplines.  He sounds unhinged sometimes because he doesn't spend time spelling out all the connective details, for the slow witted ones.   

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:38 | 984309 artinlight
artinlight's picture

Is the Gov in France is afraid of it's people who don't have guns - oh the people are too smart and create fear on behalf of their brains?  Yes?

Fear is not what folks in the US have - it is their addiction to bailouts, general relief, unemployment checks and food stamps (plus weed and other drugs).  Take that away and see who is afraid of who has a gun and who does not - Blindness.

Max is still spineless and you have yet to address his fear of what I have to say. 

btw - folks here at ZH say I got beans for brains - thank goodness that Max spells it out for me. As well thank goodness he has more noodles who buy his person too.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 03:06 | 984472 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

The people of France do have a track-record of putting heads on pikes.  Might encourage caution (perhaps even fear) in a gubermint operative.

BTW, have you been drinking?  That reads like one of my posts half-way through a bottle of Templeton Rye.

Take a break buddy.  Friends don't let friends post drunk!

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 05:57 | 984543 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

France is ranked 7th in the world for gun ownership.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:50 | 984184 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Wow. The Bilderbergs are rolling out their very best troll for this evening's entertainment.

That must be due to the fact that everything discussed in the interview was based upon highly credible evidence and empirical scientific fact.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:49 | 984331 artinlight
artinlight's picture

May be a troll to you but describing me as a bilderburg (you put caps on that word as if you see it as respectable - why?) is the joke.  No one likes me - especially them.

I said Max is wicked smart - just his person is questionable.  By the looks of your handle I imagine your SSRI's would have you in the same catagory.  What does the one who perscribes you say?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 01:26 | 984391 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Don't do the SSRI's, although I wouldn't refuse a large dose of thorazine every now and again. Or maybe some Schedule II narcotic analgesics.

My psychiatrist assures me that I'm getting better.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:03 | 984223 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

'I have been permanently denied access to post on his blog.  Why?'

Calling people idiots is pretty much a sure-fire way to get yourself banned from most sites.

You can get away with most anything if you phrase your comment in a way that is not personally offensive.

Just speculating on a conjecture...

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:41 | 984314 artinlight
artinlight's picture

You Snidley are an idiot - as is Tyler (I called him a pussy two days ago).

Still here Sh^th*@d.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:39 | 984303 strannick
strannick's picture

If you find Max too challenging, there are always the vacuous bimbettes on CNBC. They can tell you how precious metals are in a bubble. Then you can go buy APPL

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:43 | 984317 artinlight
artinlight's picture

Sorry truksterstannick - I am all in Silver.  You will have to put up with a Can't Understand Normal Thinking it seems.

And how do you know there are bimbettes on CNBC - oh you must have a TV.  I do not.  Wanna send me one so I can see what you do?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:45 | 984319 artinlight
artinlight's picture

Sorry truksterstannick - I am all in Silver.  You will have to put up with a Can't Understand Normal Thinking it seems.

And how do you know there are bimbettes on CNBC - oh you must have a TV.  I do not.  Wanna send me one so I can see what you do?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:44 | 984321 artinlight
artinlight's picture

Sorry truksterstannick - I am all in Silver.  You will have to put up with a Can't Understand Normal Thinking it seems.

And how do you know there are bimbettes on CNBC - oh you must have a TV.  I do not.  Wanna send me one so I can see what you do?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 01:10 | 984371 strannick
strannick's picture

Uh actually its just 'Strannick'. Got the TV, no cable. Can catch the bimbette squad online when their being mocked, posted by the type of folks who appreciate Max Keiser. I wont be responding in triplicate

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 01:13 | 984372 strannick
strannick's picture

Uh. actually its just 'Strannick'. Got the TV, no cable. Can catch the bimbette squad online when their being mocked, posted by the type of folks who appreciate Max Keiser. I wont be responding in triplicate, hopefully two will do. At least you're in silver

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 02:23 | 984445 artinlight
artinlight's picture

Good to meet you Strannick.

I DO appreciate Max.  I just question why he says and does some of the things he does.  

He has yet to say (and he talks more than anyone I know) where he sees a solution beyond no central banksters and the idealogical world Sid Vicious preached of with tribes fighting for dominance rather than rewarding those that produce/give/create being the lead to follow.

I believe he is a statist by nature - and by the billions of times he has said "I TOLD YOU SO".  He is more concerned about being right rather than finding out what does not work or looking in the mirror at what problems he does/would be contributing to. 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 02:56 | 984463 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Obvious troll is obvious.


Tue, 02/22/2011 - 03:42 | 984489 strannick
strannick's picture

Hi. Nice to meet you also.

Keiser's bullhorn prosletizing rings loud and clear with me cause of my great loathing for the banksters. People like Bernanke, Jamie Dimon and Allan Greenspan are responsible for more carnage than every thief from the kid who steals lunch money to Bernie Madoff.

I see him to be a great antidote to the slathering idiocy, euphemism, and mousy gobbledegook of the Obama's of the world

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 04:27 | 984503 Guy Fawkes Mulder
Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

Max has little confidence of his manhood (just by the look of him - and the way he screams - which is funnier than Jerry Sienfield).


Plus one because I was listening to the interview again, hours later, hours after you posted, and Max was just doing his spiel, and I immediately thought of Jerry Seinfeld's spiel.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:04 | 983633 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

left wing MSM is hysterically mis-reporting Wisconsin

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:06 | 983644 blindman
blindman's picture

or wisconsin is mis-understanding wisconsin/washinton?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:08 | 983651 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

 r u serious?  wisconsin is not washington. it has no ben and it cant print money. unions mobs angrily demanding that tax payers continue to give it up wont stand

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:30 | 983711 blindman
blindman's picture

the question i have is how much of the public deficit

and debt is interest payments for financing, without

getting into state and other contracts generously given

for kickbacks, campaign financing or other possible financial

malfeasance.  i bet it is in the billions, public interest paid

in the state.  not to mention the private interest.  i also

wonder if their bondholders/financial servicers have seized

the sales tax receipts yet as collateral(?) for their financing

as is done in other municipalities?   it is the defining dynamic

of the time,  unsustainable debt and increasing interest payments

representing a growing percentage of the budget.  the bankstas need

it more now since their phony securitization fraud blew up. 

there is the washington / wall street / fed connection i was referring to.

(shitty money system, for the real economy/human being).

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:18 | 984093 prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

must correct your #'s, all states combined have deficit of 124 billion, in wisconsin, our 2 year deficit is 2.2 billion; and the next year is only a $137 million budget deficit.  So your estimation of wisconsin paying billions in interest is way off

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 08:43 | 984648 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

You have confused deficit (an annual/bi-annual event) with debt, the accumulation of years of same.  Interest is paid on the debt.  The Federal Debt is approaching the size of our GDP. 

Re. other posters pretending the Fed can raise rates.  The Fed can not raise rates without crushing what's left of the economy and causing the USA to default on its debt.

In CA, the projected defecit is $28B of the $124B combined for all states you refer to. The debt for California is around half a trillion FRNskis.

Interest is paid on the debt.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 09:33 | 984744 blindman
blindman's picture

what if you add all the cities, municipalities, towns, counties 

and their budgets:  the entire state. the state itself dropped

hundreds of millions, projected 2010-2011, 262 million in interest payments?

(pg 38) feb 09 budget.



Wisconsin State Representative Mark Pocan


again, not mentioning the private interest payments.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:49 | 984003 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

when the peeps discover that the banks/aig etc. can be bailed out to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars but that their pensions funds can't..  that's when you'll see state houses across the country burning down to the ground.. right or wrong they will burn.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 01:34 | 984398 Hacksaw
Hacksaw's picture

Once was a ship called Wall Street that couldn't stay afloat. 

It seems that all her officers had looted out the boat.

They called up all the Democrats to come and plug the hole and Uncle Scam told the working man that he must pay the toll.

And they said bail, bail to the working man or the wealthy ship will sink. We said hell no to Uncle Scam you sailed us to the brink. You never gave damn for the working man, the ship was built on greed. Now they've looted all the cash they can, let them banksters bleed.

A mighty ship called AIG she sprang a leaky plank.

That board was made of billionaires that split before she sank.

They called up all Republicans to come and get there fast and Uncle Scam told the working man that he must save their ass.

And he said bail, bail to the working man or the wealthy ship will sink. We said hell no to Uncle Scam you sailed us to the brink. You never gave damn for the working man, the ship was built on greed. Now they've taken all the cash they can, let them banksters bleed.

The wealthy ship has floundered and she's swamped up to her mast.

The leaders of freedocracy the constitutions past, they've ransomed off your future giving money to a few.

To the children of America the banksters say, SCREW YOU.

And they said bail, bail to the working man or the wealthy ship will sink. We said hell no to Uncle Scam we'll throw you in the clink. You never gave damn for the working man, there's no end to their greed. Now they've stolen all the cash they can, let's make them banksters bleed.





Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:07 | 983647 Guy Fawkes Mulder
Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

Junked. For being off-topic twice. Go watch the Krieger interview.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:12 | 983864 Seer
Seer's picture


Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:16 | 983666 weinerdog43
weinerdog43's picture

Troll begone! 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:48 | 983766 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

the left/right press wants to ignore the midwest families since neither side can paint them in their hate zone.    


btw - great max vid like usual

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:41 | 984157 Bob
Bob's picture

Then watch Fox, no? 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:06 | 983643 Overpowered By Funk
Overpowered By Funk's picture


Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:15 | 983872 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

Someone's gotta do it.


Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:49 | 984181 Bob
Bob's picture

Incredible.  Thanks. 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:07 | 983649 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

But these two gentlemen haven't succeeded in their campaign to bring JPM into the banking morgue yet. I wish silver would break $150 by the end of this year, which would definitely bankrupt JPM!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:11 | 983655 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

....the two guys who came up with the "Crash JP Morgan/Buy Silver" meme....

Two guys?  That is a joke, right?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:11 | 983656 Chris Jusset
Chris Jusset's picture

Awesome job, Mike Krieger:

"This time the revolution, and the weakest link, is the governments themselves, because the governments have bailed out everything..."

Right on, bro!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:30 | 983931 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

It's also refreshing to see someone who understands Debt Deflation along with the Federal Reserve. This has been the main weak spot in the Debt Deflationist view, IMO. However, combining the two views leads to a really powerful analysis of what's going on in the bigger picture.

The fourth turning stuff though, isn't quite there. Almost, but not quite. Combine it with the recent work on capital destruction, and you actually have something.

Nonetheless, I agree, awesome job, Mr. Krieger.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 02:03 | 984433 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

detroit told to close 1/2 of schools. rallies planned in lansing for tuesday over state budget.


Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:12 | 983661 eureka
eureka's picture

Oxymoronic I'm-cool-and-U.S.-rule-forever knuckleheads will soon realize Max is right.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:13 | 983662 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture


The Egyptians sure chased those Military Controlling Goons right out of "THEIR" country.

The beggar that was always in front of the Sphinx is now President. << As if.

"The Workers control the Means of Production!"


"when these revolutions are over, WE will have a different status quo!" < Dumbest Comment EVA!

Who starts, controls, and wins the revolt?

New Boss, SAME As The Old Boss!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:38 | 983741 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

 - yeah but, we won't get fooled again, can you dig that? we're already fooled again, you dig, the same 'ole rock-n-roll band.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:00 | 984212 prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

right, i have to agree with you here; and came to this conclusion when i realized the protesters in the arab world had no policy points;  change you can believe in, just project it yourself = never going to happen

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:22 | 983691 koot
koot's picture

Yep.  What a mess.  The Fed failed when they ingnored their Founders #1 rule by getting invloved with politics and trying to run a country instead of minding their own business and just controlling the money.  It was their end at that time.  But just like snakes, they can still lurch out and strike with venom long after they are dead.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:24 | 983695 mt paul
mt paul's picture

oil covered silver....

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:26 | 983701 stev3e
stev3e's picture

These two guys have to lay off the weed.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:25 | 984275 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

you need to lay off the hopium

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:27 | 983705 narnia
narnia's picture

Campaign suggestions:

1) encourage anyone with deposits / accounts in a TBTF, TARP or Fed bailoutee should find a good solid local bank and switch their business immediately.

2) encourage everyone with a MERS loan to file a quiet title action within the same 3 week period.



Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:27 | 983707 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

The revolution might not be televised, but it will continue on the internet at sites like Zero Hedge and Max's site.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:27 | 983924 LibertyIn2010
LibertyIn2010's picture
  • "but it will continue on the internet..."

Sure it will.  At least until the sun spots and solar flares wreak havoc on our electrical grid, satellites, etc.  My guess is that's going to happen right about the time it helps TPTB prevent the rebellion from getting out of hand.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:28 | 983927 LibertyIn2010
LibertyIn2010's picture

"but it will continue on the internet..."

Sure it will.  At least until the sun spots and solar flares wreak havoc on our electrical grid, satellites, etc.  My guess is that's scheduled to happen right about the time it helps TPTB prevent the rebellion from getting out of hand.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:36 | 983961 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

They won't be able to, tthe beast will be eaten from the inside out.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:13 | 984075 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

the solar flare stories are all coming out now....and conveniently, if things get out of control here in the US i asure you the internet will have problems and it will be blamed on those damn solar flares......hhhmmmmm

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:35 | 983730 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Outstanding interview and superb analysis.

This is one of the best interviews that MK has ever given, right up there with Stoneleigh.

Thanks, Tyler.

Thanks, Max.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:38 | 983737 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

......luv Max Keiser ....... luv Mike Krieger !

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:40 | 983743 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Interesting debate all the way through, only spoiled at the end a bit by the 'consensus' view on that old Chestnut, Oil... at least it wasn't the usual 'Peak Oil' BS but one step down the hysterical loony ladder to just 'end of cheap oil' claim. With the exception of a likely blow off into the £120-$160 area around about now I'm willing to bet Mr Krieger cheap oil (below $50 a barrel) will soon be back before end of June '11 and stay with us for years to come (ie. deflation baby, deflation)

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:56 | 983796 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

While not completely disagreeing with you, I'm curious as to why you wouldn't factor in any "black swan" events.

What if OPEC declares that its member states will no longer accept US Dollars for oil trade?

Also, when you use derogatory terms when describing valid scientific theory, you detract from whatever message that you may be attempting to convey.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:28 | 983928 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture


there aren't really any 'black swan' events. That's a fancy way (excuse to be accurate) to describe 'unexpected' events which economists, academics and politicians use because none of them can see anything coming! Most events are entirely predictable if you do your homework.

Regards me using "derogatory terms" i call a spade a spade and loons loons. I haven't got time to beat around the bush, especially as i've lost patience with the number of loonies jumping out of the bushes shouting 'Peak Oil... peak food... peak population". I find a quick blast of reality-tonic with some rough words calms these hysterics minds to focus on facts.

That's my style, you don't like, fuk off 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:39 | 983966 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

The whole point of mathematics is to solve for the unknown. Apparently, this tenet escaped you during your pre-pubescent learning years.


Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:59 | 984036 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

how does maths "solve" anything? Maths is a measure, a ruler, not an answer 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:28 | 984289 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Simple terms.. Math doesn't lie. 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 01:41 | 984407 A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

But accounting gimmicks do.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 03:50 | 984494 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Accounting and Mathematics are no longer on speaking terms, it seems that Accounting has been whoring around with Banksters...

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 04:16 | 984505 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture


Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:15 | 983874 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Deflation my ass. We'll be paying $20 for loaf of bread and dipsticks like you will still be shouting deflation.

And yes, wake up, we're running out of the stuff.


(P.S. below $50 by June 11 !?!? I'll have some of whatever you are smoking)

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:39 | 983962 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture


"Deflation my ass" is precisely where you're going to get bitten because everyone and their cat is looking straight ahead for the inflation bull when it's the deflation bear you should be worried about. Here's some deflation bears already out of the woods; property down -30%; Credit down $2 Trillion; GDP contracting (in line with credit imploding) and of course the Big One, Credit Crunch I in 2007 (not many people know that!).

Yep 2007's Credit Crunch was deflation, implosion of money (credit/debt) in circulation, or being taken out of circulation. Nobody said it was a deflationary event because all we've had for 25 years is inflation. It took a year but see what it did to the Bernankes beloved CPI, it kicked it between the legs in 2009.

And Bens' been trying to inflate his credit bubbles ever since with little effect on CPi which is still flatlining like a corpse barely just alive (1.5% inflation) despite the chubby midget pumping in $2 Trillion.

There are big bears about trampling over the landscape but all the euphoric inflationsist can see are bulls. Wakey Wakey

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:03 | 984047 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I agree with some of your comments but the 'CPI at 1.5%' is not one of them.

We are seeing tremendous wealth destruction because of residential RE prices declining steeply. We did see tremendous wealth destruction because individual retirement/401K accounts that were heavily weighted with stocks took a substantial hit in 07-08.

Bernanke did offer practically unlimited financial help to the FIRE sector, or it would have gone under. That help came at the expense of taxpayers and will have to be repaid or defaulted upon or inflated away in the future.

I believe that all the adults here can agree that we are seeing more than 1.5% increases in our every day expenses; ie, food, fuel, fees, taxes, non descretionary items. In the past we have all been witness to the changes in CPI when the CPI begins to reflect real world conditions. If steak gets too expensive, hamburger is inserted in it's stead in the CPI.

So, I believe we are seeing both deflation of some assets (if one considers homes assets) and inflation in non descretionary consumables.

Of course, all this is based on one's definition of deflation/inflation. To make it simpler... let's use price increases/decreases instead of inflation/deflation.

But of one thing I am sure. Ben is definitely attempting to blow more bubbles and create inflation both at home and abroad. Every country tied to a dollar peg is importing inflation and that inflation will come back to the US as price increases in foreign exports/US imports.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:23 | 984103 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture


the actual correct strict definition of inflation and deflation is Bens money supply. But i believe that is incorrect (academics always get it wrong). It should include credit (debt) in circulation in the economy because it is in fact the main 'money' (means of exchanging value). Ben has doubled his money supply in past few years but credit (debt) outnumbers it 40/1 as leveraged by the retail banks.

Deflationists don't really care what Benny does, his money supply is trivial compared to the retail banks credit (debt) mountain which has been the overwhelming driver of all this funny money bubbling up property values, buying cars, holidays, TV's, credit cards, you name it.

Inflationists are obsessively focused on Ben and the Fed. They're all watching a sideshow, not the main event which is the far larger credit mountain which is about to implode like a house of cards in unserviceable debts, underwater housing, bankrupting businesses, growing unemployment etc etc.

Regards "wealth destruction" just to define it wealth is created by industry, energy and agriculture. Those wealth streams will not be destroyed during recession though they will contract. The real wealth destruction is Govt and how much it consumes (35% in US, up to 60% in Europe). The imploding credit mountain created by retail banks is not 'wealth' being destroyed just to be accurate its the fake funny money they created to fake we were living some wealthy lifestyle past 25 years. 

We are returning to norm in effect and ridding ourselves of fake money (credit) and a fantasy lifestyle we've been living. Everything is about to change alot!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:47 | 984177 Seer
Seer's picture

Much better!  I agree 100%!  Esp you last paragrpah- nice summation!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:57 | 984208 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Thanks ZG, I understand the different definitions of inflation/deflation... as well as a mortal can... and, that is why I attempt to steer clear of them. I tend to like the Austrian definition, as you seem to.

I also understand the tremendous amount of debt destruction that lies ahead...some has already occured, but not much.

My personal belief is that wealth is created by excess savings of individual workers. Without the workers there would be no industry, no energy and no agriculture. This is also an Austrian School interpretation.

Of course now there is no, or little, individual worker savings because there remains no incentive to save when the banks are paying less than the rate of inflation on savings accounts.

'The imploding credit mountain created by retail banks is not 'wealth' being destroyed just to be accurate its the fake funny money they created to fake we were living some wealthy lifestyle past 25 years.' Totally in agreement with this comment.

...and, I agree that 'everything is about to change a lot!

Nevertheless...we are seeing more than 1.5% CPI increases. I am not going to buy that gov stat simply so that you can prove your point regarding deflation. grin...

You could have proven your point without that stat. btw, nice chatting with you.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:06 | 984233 Bob
Bob's picture

This argument seems in keeping with Keiser's tale of the banksters at Davos determining that they need $100T in new debt to fully stabilize the financial system. 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:28 | 984115 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

I'm going to partially agree with Zero Govt (great idea, BTW) on the deflations front. Home prices are going to continue lower for a variety of reasons - can't get a loan, prices too high, interest rates moving up, clouded title, take your pick - but the CPI is moving, and in Ben's preferred direction. The problem is that he just can't get it moving quickly enough. People are very resistant to price increases and aren't as stupid as the govt. thinks. When oil gets too expensive and it costs more to get to work than what you make, people will make material changes, or die.

Also, the one thing that everyone seems to be missing is the deflating federal and state tax receipts. There isn't enough money to keep the various bloated atrocities functioning. Most big events occur from nibbling at the margins and the whole tax structure is being eroded day-by-day in America. Not only that, but the legal functions (judiciary) are breaking down as well thanks to overburdening the courts with foreclosures, credit actions, etc. The biggest deflation is in tax receipts, so, in essence, the "debate" in Wisconsin is probably moot (except for the collective bargaining issue) because taxpayers can't afford it any more.

All the big structures (SS, Medicare/Medicade, full assessment property tax theft, monstrous police forces, and the biggest gorilla in the room - the $600 billion defense budget) are going to be eliminated to a large degree. And, sorry to say - because I'm not fully prepared, though close - it's going to happen sooner than most people suspect, probably before 2012 elections.

I am doing my part, however, buying silver AND not paying my mortgage. Plus, today, my local utility, through their own stupidity and neglect, allowed me to walk away from a $1700 bill. They want it paid in 3 months, no wiggle room. I told them I couldn't do it. They said they'd send it to a collection agency and it would ruin my credit. I thanked them, telling them that if the best I could do was 17.9% interest on a credit card, make sure to ruin it really well.

The kicker is that all I wanted was a 12-month payment plan, which the collection agency will readily entertain, probably at a discount. It never ceases to amaze me how out of touch company billing and collection departments are when it comes to money. Most people just need a reasonable workout and they;ll get paid, but the companies, like the banks, want it all now.

Morons. It will be better on the other side.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:56 | 984207 Seer
Seer's picture

As someone who has always paid his debts, I can give you the mortgage one, but NOT the utility one.  You USED the utilities, and I doubt that there was any deceit such as with mortgage generators.

Again, when you signed up with the utility you KNEW what YOUR obligation was.  Further, to rack up a $1,700 bill, WTF?  Did you make ANY effort to discuss all of this BEFORE it got this huge?  I mean, this would take me something like 1 1/2 years to rack up a bill this big; surely over that kind of time one would know how things are going.

And maybe companies want to get paid because they need to meet payroll?  If you worked for such companies I'm sure that you'd want their accounts receivables to not balloon such that they couldn't pay you (have to lay you off).

Also, the fact that you're still spending (silver) means that you're being dishonest about your ability to pay.  Your obligations are first.  The fact that you've mismanged things is YOUR fault (putting the blame on others is clearly a distraction from this).

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:29 | 984274 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Ah, Seer, a wise man with a moral conscience. How quaint. First off, you have no idea of the details, so STFU for a minute before berating and going all holier than thou on me.

First off, I live in upstate New York, where we not only have the highest property taxes in the nation, but some of the highest utility bills as well. From November to April, a monthly utility bill for a 1400 SF house runs over $300 a month, so it doesn't take too long to run the bill up or fall behind.

That's besides the point. How about a utility company that won't prune trees from their wires (they were granted easements years ago by the municipality) no matter how dangerous the situation, saying it's the "customer's responsibility," and which charges a monthly customer fee of $35 whether you use any gas or electric or not. The company is based in Spain, thanks to Zionist hero Senator Charles Schumer, the deal done about four years ago. Part of that deal was that they wouldn't request a rate increase for the first 18 months. They requested an 18% increase after 6 months and the outrage was so high they backed off. As soon as the 18 months passed, our beloved Public Service Commission (supposed to work in the public benefit) granted them a 12% rate increase.

So, take your moral indignation and shove it. The company is known as Iberdola and is huge. I'm sure they're not going to need my money so quickly just to keep people employed. They're nothing but a huge globalist theft machine.

Also, and you're an asshole for missing this, I am willing to pay, I just want a longer term payout. They refuse, on "company policy." It's bullshit. Just like me saying, my company policy is to never negotiate with anyone who wants full payment in three months. So, a standoff.

Why I had to explain this all to you is beyond me, but I hope you get the drift, because, if you don't, you'll just get washed away with the rest of the fish out there. I suppose if you got raped repeatedly every month, you'd just wait with open arms for your next reaming, right?

It's business. People negotiate all the time. Try running a business for yourself instead of cashing a paycheck (I hate that paycheck entitlement attitude. Nobody is guaranteed a JOB). Sheeple, fish, who cares? People like you need your eyes opened.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 05:19 | 984527 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

 Try running a business for yourself instead of cashing a paycheck (I hate that paycheck entitlement attitude. Nobody is guaranteed a JOB).


Because now cashing a paycheck is an entitlement? Nobody is guaranteed a job but still a huge stretch from there to people should not be entitled to be paid when working.

The company, no matter how big they are, probably need your money to run.

Especially in that era of credit based economy with companies borrowing money to run the current expenses.

You are just making up excuses, Spain and all...

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 04:04 | 984500 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

Your obligations are first.

Exactly.  And if someone decides his obligations to his family and their future are more important than making the collection agency for the utility company wait a while for their pound of flesh so what.

It could be that he thinks there he has more pressing obligations than someone else's opinon on whether he is a responsible steward of FRNs.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:39 | 984307 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture


Very good and more detailed description of the deflationary forces in the economy, including what i left out, the deflation coming in Govt spending and Govt tax income.

The last point is people themselves of course. We are changing from taking on credit (inflation in effect) to rejecting it and paying on debit, rather than credit, cards. This is what most economists miss, including Michael Krieger, that the economy is a human machine, not a mathematical one. 

When consumers and businessmen change from taking on credit to rejecting it that starts the deflationary ball rolling and nothing nor nobody such as the Fed or President can stop the snowball once it begins.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 02:07 | 984429 Guy Fawkes Mulder
Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

You've come a long way from what I first saw of you today, when I gave you my Billy Madison Award.

I wouldn't give you that dubious award anymore, but I still do want to disagree with you about one big thing. Even though I know you're a psychotic-compulsive intellectual who has to have the last word, even to the point of embarrassing yourself without knowing it.

Yes, when I first saw you, you were incoherent, but look how far you've come, explaining yourself to everyone at length in clear terms until they stop bothering to reply.

In reading your sundry conversations, I've come to find that I respect you more than the average ZH J6P.

But anyway, hear this:

Real assets are not going to deflate in dollar terms. They might deflate in "real" terms (that's the academic "real terms") -- like 1 oz of silver might be able to buy more (or a lot more) than it used to -- but in dollar terms it's just headed for hyper-inflation.

So, yes, we are going to see "deflation", as the millions, trillions, etc. of credit money evaporates because the party is over, the music is stopping, and the chairs are few and far between. But Bennie Bucks are for shit, and you're going to see relentless inflation in Bennie Buck prices for goods that are truly valuable (like food and oil). Because Ben keeps printing. Because Ben has to keep printing. Just like Mike Krieger said.

The Fed has helped the banks blow every bubble possible under the current paradigms. When bubbles pop, when boom turns to bust, deflation always comes simultaneously. But the magic money machine at the Fed will not stop printing until there is no one left who believes in the paper and digits that it creates by the thousands of millions.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 03:55 | 984498 Guy Fawkes Mulder
Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

I just junked myself for saying that I "have come to respect you more than the average ZH J6P."

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 05:37 | 984533 Matto
Matto's picture

There it is, in a nutshell.


Debt deflation cannot and will not be tolerated. The USD will fall before debt deflation is allowed.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:46 | 984172 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

LOL right no inflation - I guess all the riots are due to people being so happy because their biggest expense(food) just dropped 50% - fing moron

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:47 | 984176 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

On second thought just using the CPI as a yardstick on whether or not there is inflation makes you a moron

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 01:27 | 984390 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You are standing in front of the cracking dam, screaming about drought.  The symptoms of what will occur are similar (crop failure), but preparing for one without considering the other will lead to a quick, miserable death.  Saving in dollars, which seems like a dandy idea for dealing with deflation, will destroy your wealth in an instant in hyperinflation.  Gold is more prudent, plus it works during collapse-driven deflation as well.

Hyperinflation is just deflation (from economic collapse)+money printing.  They aren't going to stop printing money.  You'd best be ready for hyperinflation.  The measures you take for that will shield you from deflation as well.

CPI is like the dollar index.  It is indicative of nothing.  It is overweight crap you don't need, underweight food, and engages in so much hedonics and substitution as to be completely worthless.

But you'll never understand it, because you have chosen your belief.  Even when you are paying for groceries with bundles of trillion dollar bills, you still won't believe it.  I wonder if you will think yourself rich, or soon to be rich, like the fools buying Iraqi dinar in hopes that it will be miraculously revalued to the official rate imposed by Saddam.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:44 | 984168 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

I don't want what he's smoking just the other side of his bet

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:07 | 984235 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

the riots are due to recession, the food prices are the inflamation point. They would have happened anyway against the real problem, Govt, most of them tyranical Govts.

Wish i knew when Credit Crunch II arrives, it's building up to a blow off in commodities now like 2007-08 so i don't think we're far from the CCII  

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 01:45 | 984412 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

Correction - food INFLATION is the inflammation point. 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:21 | 983900 Guy Fawkes Mulder
Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

Best be trollin' fool:

  • It was not a debate.
  • Oil depletion is not a chestnut.
  • Peak Oil, "end of cheap oil" are not rungs on a loony ladder.
  • As far as your second sentence goes, I am just speechless and grant you The Billy Madison Award (now in HD).

But of course it was a complete waste of my time to point out just how much shit you managed to cram into two sentences. I'd have better luck talking to a goat.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:46 | 983991 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Guy Fawlkes  -  may i suggest you go talk to a goat because your iQ is a match

I know my oil research and i also know the inflation argument better than you as well as the deflation argument which you've firstly never heard and secondly don't understand. If i've got a strong opinion about something i usually very clued up on both sides of the argument, i wouldn;t be happy calling an end to the BS about peak oil or the sound inflationary fears but unsound in terms of maths (deflationary forces are much larger than inflationary, there's only going to be one winner, it's Bear shaped)

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:55 | 984022 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

You may want to consider taking an English Composition 101 course.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:09 | 984059 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

yes my composition is crap isn't it? almost as crap as your debate on the topic. Come back when you've got something to say

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:43 | 983986 Seer
Seer's picture

And what are you basing YOUR "BS" on?  Skittles and unicorns?

I've been calling it (correctly) for years!  It's about affordability, not a particular price.  Is oil "cheap" at $50/bbl if you have no job/income?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:51 | 984011 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

the issue was the price of oil not how many can afford it but to answer that alot won't because of the size of the jobless numbers in the years to come. Regards $50 a barrel that's my upper limit, more like the usual $30 in the years ahead and before the end of this year too

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:12 | 984068 Seer
Seer's picture

Could you restructure your sentences?  They're a bit mangled and I'm having a hard time picking apart your points. (yes, it's clear that you're saying that the issue was "price," but "price" will have EVERYTHING to do with affordability)  Thanks!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:29 | 984118 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Seer - i've given you my estimate of what the price will be so that's crystal clear. If you want me to estimate how many can afford $30 oil i've not much idea i'm afraid. But the unemployment cues will be 40% from 9% (well 21% to be honest) as it is now

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:06 | 984234 Seer
Seer's picture


I realized that the energy bet was a sucker's game.  You load on on one side and the big players will level you: aim low and jobs will be yanked.  Chances are that if the "value" drops to $30/bbl that there won't be the money available (affordability), which is as you note.  BUT... a drastic drop would also mean a drastic reduction in consumption (demand destruction); this, I'd think, would really signal a point at which people give up on the system; it would also mean less available money to bring new fields on-line.

Yes, I'm "seer," but I'll still never play with energy pricing (I know too much, know that it's just way too dynamic).  But what I'm certain of is affordability; and, like I've said, That's what matters (otherwise one is just playing BINGO while the casino is on fire).

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:08 | 984239 sellstop
sellstop's picture


I am of the opinion that high unemployment is because of high oil prices.

Oil drives the economy. everthing else is secondary. If oil is cheap, ie, if there is more supply than demand, then demand will pick up and take up the slack. After all that is the point of fiat, to goose the economy and pick up the slack. The economy is not picking up even with all the fiat. And the cause is the high cost of energy.

For the last 15 years, or so, high price has not increased supply. Except to make the marginal deposits "economical".

But that high price is what caused the meltdown. High energy costs equals high cost of capital equals slowdown....



Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:29 | 984273 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture


High input prices can have an effect on employment yes. But most input prices, like labour itself, are small costs in regards to overall output prices in the main. 

The biggest cause for unemployment in any country is the relentless growth of Govt, how much money it consumes (ie. wealth it destroys), the relentless growth in their regulations which add costs/complexity and make the country uncompetiitve and eventually of course drives business away.

Much has been said about outsourcing ruining American jobs. Businesses outsource to countries with less regulation and easier rules. Try sacking an American worker. Look at the ambulance chasing lawyers for work accidents etc. Min wages have not added jobs they've destroyed them (the list goes on).

Remember oil is energy, it is a wealth stream of itself. So you can't have too much energy and indeed the reason for Americas so-called dependence on foreign oil, which has risen from 60% to 70% imported is because the US Govt has strangled exploitation of its own resources. The US Govt is now whining about "energy insecurity" when in fact it has been the No.1 cause of the decline in its own production industry 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:16 | 984079 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

At what point would you short oil?

If OPEC continues to take dollars for oil they will be importing they have been...into their own internal economies.

At some point OPEC members will say no mas to dollars and demand direct exchange of commodities, probably cereal grains, maybe including some other commodities, for oil.

On the surface this appears to be a minor change of no consequence, but it is not...and, you recognize what an impact this 'little' change will have. It will mean that the dollar is no longer the prime settlement/transaction tool for oil and that any country with excess commodities might be able to exchange them directly for oil.

For OPEC to continue to take dollars that purchase ever fewer commodities is sucide for what ever regime is in power.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:37 | 984142 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture


i'm not sure i 'get' this "Fed exporting inflation" argument. For any increase in price, say Oil from $50 to $120 there will be an increase in say Wheat from $25 a bushel to $75. So Saudi will sell in inflated prices and buy its agricultural imported in those same inflated Dollars (ie. it's all relative).

Why would Saudi trade oil for wheat by bartering? They'd still have to agree values for each product and that'd still be valued in Dollars!

I understand the point about the USD eventually being dropped by some major global trading blocks. If they do nobody can do anything about it. That's change. I'm not going to fret about until we get a countdown at which point i hope i make some money in the changeover  :) 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:48 | 984182 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

Wow you really are fucking clueless

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:14 | 984248 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

you're obviously a 'global academic' thinker... i think in terms of B2B which is precisely what international trade is... the academic arguments about 'countries' trading in a currency which is inflating are a nonsense. Businesses trade with other businesses and they use whatever currency suites them and how it changes is relative. If the Dollar looks dodgy they will change if and when needed, not because Benny has printed an extra $250bn

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:57 | 984349 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

Sure - keep telling yourself that. Commodities will drop when Ben stops printing which will be never.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:59 | 984213 sellstop
sellstop's picture

For the last 30 years Asia has used their inexpensive labor to produce inexpensive goods for US to buy. They exported deflation, and we imported deflation. We loved it. It gave us an excuse to keep interest rates low. In fact, Asia lending the money back to our govt. kept interest rates low. But we loved it. We went hog-wild and deep in debt.

Now, if the USDollar gets weak, either Asia lets their currencys appreciate or they have a problem with inflation. If they let their currencys appreciate, they in effect give all of their workers a pay raise, since their money will buy more. Letting their currencies rise will also make buying raw materials less expensive for them. The downside is that their goods will be more expensive for us to buy. ie, we will now start importing inflation. That means that interest rates should start to rise, and consumption should start to decline. Just what one would expect of a country with an aging population that is nearing retirement...



Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:13 | 984244 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Correct...and when you say 'If they let their currencys appreciate, they in effect give all of their workers a pay raise, since their money will buy more.' you are saying a lot!

What happens is that they give their workers a pay raise but there is no corresponding increase in productivity... which also happens to be inflationary. So, they would experience cost-push inflation, ie; more money chasing the same amount of finished goods...or, commodities if they are stockpiling PMs...which it appears they are.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 03:09 | 984474 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Mostly agreed, but this seems like a good place to pop in such a comment...

"We" (the USA) haven't exactly been exporting inflation OR importing deflation.  Because the dollar has been the reserve currency used as a "globally-accepted" safe investment for decades, we've been able to DILUTE our own inflation.

From one angle, it looks like export of inflation.  From another, it looks like import of deflation. 

It's not like we've been able to avoid domestic inflation.  We just found an approach that enabled us to mask the inflationary "cost" of debasing the dollar. 

Spread it all over the planet and maybe no one notices?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 01:47 | 984415 Nobody special
Nobody special's picture

Your approach considers flow, but not stock.  When flow is balanced but the stock of dollars is being inflated away, it's still a net negative proposition for the oil seller.  The fact they hold USD as a wealth asset, and it's deteriorating rapidly in value, means they need to get MORE dollars than equal trade value to offset wealth losses and carrying costs.  The net negative return on assets causes the trade medium to become suspect.  If nations didn't hold USD and UST en masse, it might be able to serve as you suggest.  But trade is now the smaller function of the USD, and the large function is the one that's failing.  Storage of wealth in USD is ending and it's taking faith with it.


Right now, people around the world toil their lives away for fiat 'wealth' that governments create at the push of a button.  Not a fair trade, but most have no exposure to financial collapse; they trust due to ignorance.  As soon as the masses realize it's tangibles they need in hand, as their wealth is not protected otherwise, you'll see the US dollar rise with vigor as the sharpest move through it into tangibles.  Velocity restored, the USD will look healthy, but for a shot time only.  The rise will steadily gain in velocity.  There will be time to get out... very little but some... and you best in hard assets when that happens.  Momentum will hit a tipping point where the masses become aware, and further assets will cease to trade at prices you can comprehend.  It won't be high prices (relative to other tangibles) but rather the failure of currency that causes it.  You mention 'making money in the changeover,' but I think you'd be more wise to secure assets instead.  The money you seek to make will be worthless.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 05:31 | 984529 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

You set the stage for a steep inflation scenario with every one expecting to get paid more to catch up with rising prices.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 05:43 | 984535 MolotovCockhead
MolotovCockhead's picture


 For OPEC to continue to take dollars that purchase ever fewer commodities is sucide for what ever regime is in power.


The moment OPEC stop excepting dollars, they will be forced to except Halliburton, Blackwater.....white phosphorus, daisy cutter, depleted there a way out??

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 05:47 | 984539 vitoox
vitoox's picture

So, Max will be crucified on $20/$22 silver cross.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:48 | 984180 sellstop
sellstop's picture

The end of cheap oil is a fact.

Cheap oil is what makes debt possible.

High priced oil will end debt.

Debt destruction is deflationary.

But that doesn't make oil cheap again.

Because the easy oil is gone. The easy oil is gone. Higher costs of energy will put a lid on economic expansion until a better source of energy is found.

Don't let the big collapse in oil price over 08-09 fool you. That is the price at the margins. Demand in the world keeps rising. As energy gets more expensive, the comparative advantage will be with the more efficient economys.

Japan?? Nobody likes Japan.....



Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:41 | 983746 onlooker
onlooker's picture

I don’t think the USA will Arab revolt. However, food is going to be a problem. With continued unemployment and higher fuel and food costs, tensions could develop. I was looking at the age/education/unemployment of the Nations in revolt on TV last night. The US numbers are not that far off some of those countries. It is said that Politicians may be dangerous animals. Will they become endangered animals?  

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:01 | 983824 reader2010
reader2010's picture

As long as they can still print, the militray can take all the unemployed to some major battle fronts just like they did between 1941 and 1945. Today's youth will be systematically slaughtered in the process though. 

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 03:10 | 984475 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The Feds lack the administrative power/authority to enforce a large-scale draft today.  The kids won't go.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 05:46 | 984540 Matto
Matto's picture

They can only still print while reserve status is intact. The act of printing (which they will do in a debt collapse) will eradicate the already shakey reserve status.



Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:37 | 984146 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

You're right about the demographics. I heard somewhere that 85% of graduating college students last year could not find work in their fields. That's an outright catastrophe if true (I'll do some research to see if I can find a source). These are the people rebelling in the Arab countries, and if you think about it, the three major themes in Egypt were high prices, unemployment and government corruption.

Sound familiar? When you cut to the chase, we're in no different a situation than Egypt. It's just that our govt. knows how to keep everyone happy with UE, food stamps, endless greenbacks and bailouts.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:49 | 984328 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Well, my 85% figure was probably close.

According to the NY Times, May 24, 2010, "The study by the National Association of Colleges and Employers found that 24 percent of 2010 college graduates who applied for a job have one waiting after graduation, up from 20 percent last year."


Here's the link:

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:50 | 984330 prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

all true, except the usa doesn't have  a large % of population living on 2$ a day like Egypt does, so we in the USA won't riot over the price of rice, it's not what we eat.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:54 | 983789 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

According to Krieger oil producing countries will increase the price of oil so they'll be able to feed their people and avoid revolution.  That means the USA will be paying more for imported oil.

But where are the oil producing countries going to get their food?  The USA probably, since it's still the breadbasket of the world.  America farmers will be raising the price of their food to cover their higher input costs. 

And so the inflation spiral goes. 


Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:48 | 984001 Seer
Seer's picture

If you get a chance (since you brought it up), how about providing some data on this for us?  Would be interesting to see what kind of correlation there is here.

But... I agree with you, this is self-reinforcing.  Given how energy intense agriculture is we're likely to see continued pressures on food prices, which will only be mitigated through local production.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:48 | 984327 steve2241
steve2241's picture

"According to Krieger oil producing countries will increase the price of oil so they'll be able to feed their people and avoid revolution."
If their people are going hungry, it's not due to the price of oil being too low. Public personalities, like Kreiger, place a dollar value on every word they utter. Sometimes they get carried away and speak nonsense, like the above claim.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 21:54 | 983793 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Max Krieger was dead on.  And he is correct about the american people, we have been avoiding pain for a long long time.  The govt. knows that we can't take severe austerity and are doing everything they can to delay the inevitable.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:01 | 983823 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

The big variable here is the role of the officer class in America - especially the middle ranking officers - listening to various interviews from some retired officers there seems to be a kind of awakening and rejection of Israel as the favoured special state.

I wonder is this information filtering down to the current classes or is it indeed flowing against gravity as it has a tendency to do now and again.

The liberty phenomena is growing - perhaps in the minds of naval officers stationed in the eastern med.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:21 | 983904 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Remember The Liberty!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:36 | 983955 Guy Fawkes Mulder
Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture


Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:02 | 983828 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

It's funny how you can tell who is a troll and who isn't by how they comment.  I don't see how you can discount people like Max, Mike and zerohedge so adamantly without even giving thought to what they are saying.  If you were to follow just some of their financial wisdom you would see that they just might know what the fuck they are talking about.  Whether you are a troll or just plain ignorant it would behoove you to absorb all the information you can from sources like this.   

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:33 | 983944 CU1981
CU1981's picture

+ 666

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:28 | 984116 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

+++++ We all need to read and comprehend all the comments. Comments by trolls are easily spotted as you point out.

Anyone that believes that the US is blessed and will avoid a financial collapse because of 'exceptionalism', or some other form of magic, has read little history.

Tragedy can happen anywhere and if the azz hats running the show in DC and those on Wall St and at the Fed do not take steps to prevent tragedy it will happen here. So far they are 0 fer...

But since fear of change ranks right up there with fear of death there is little or no chance that anything will be done to prevent this train wreck...

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:04 | 983838 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

Cutting off foodstamps would cause the real revolt.  The 44 million probably own their share of the 200 million private firearms in the US.  There's a worrysome statistic in there somewhere.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:14 | 983865 higgins
higgins's picture

I ordered the Max coins back on December 12th. I have yet to see anything. I also have sent them a few emails with no replies. Anyone else buy these? I feel like I got taken.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:49 | 984005 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

I'm not sticking up for Max but he did say he had no affliation with that bullion place and he was not being paid for them to use his image.  I would hope tho being who he is, that he would say something on his site since he DID advertise for them. HINT HINT MAX

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:06 | 984231 higgins
higgins's picture

Yes, I agree. He did say that he had nothing to do with them. But he did do a little advertisement like you say and it is his name ultimately on the coins. Maybe he could find out what is going on. I am not mad at him. Just figured he would of checked them out to make sure they were legit.

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 01:53 | 984422 Nobody special
Nobody special's picture

Oh I wouldn't be worried.  They're just waiting for the price of silver to be taken down so they can fill your order without taking a loss.  /end sarcasm

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:18 | 984258 philgramm
philgramm's picture

Where is tmosley? If I'm not mistaken he brought up this same point that he had ordered silver through that campaign and never received his bullion.  And he was getting no response to his emails.  tmos, if you're around please chime in brother

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:26 | 984279 philgramm
philgramm's picture

Where is tmosley? If I'm not mistaken he brought up this same point that he had ordered silver through that campaign and never received his bullion.  And he was getting no response to his emails.  tmos, if you're around please chime in brother

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:20 | 983897 barliman
barliman's picture

China will have significant political destabilization before the U.S.. This will result in a Sovereign "Wikileaks" as Chinese politicians leak details on American political campaign contributions over the last decade. Their goal will be to reverse American fiscal policy they see as the root of destabilization.

A "politican of the first rank" will be used as an example. If Bernanke resigns for personal reasons and QE3 does not happen, they will stop leaking ... otherwise ....

The major wild card is Russia. How do you "threaten" a mafia based sovereign nation? Release details of Putin's sex life? Or stage a border incident to show that their military is a paper tiger?


Mon, 02/21/2011 - 22:54 | 984024 Seer
Seer's picture

You might be right.  Even if China were to go out of control I'm not thinking that it would do much good for the US.  But... China seems to have more means that the US for trying to get things back under control.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:37 | 984143 barliman
barliman's picture

China going out of control will be bad for the U.S. - the "advanced" strategy thinkers see this as an acceptable cost if it takes China out of super-power contention for this century (the Iraq war was fought for the same strategic goal - deny China influence over the Middle East by establishing a democracy).

China has less means than any other sovereign state for getting things back under control because they have 1.6 billion people still living in a country divided among various warlords. Picture them as having 160 Mubaraks, Qaddafi or the nutcase of your choice. They have very tight margins of error - especially when it comes to food and energy.


Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:18 | 984256 Seer
Seer's picture

I'd agree with you if not for the fact that China has been around for a LONG time and weathered many storms.  Also, many of the soon-to-be disgruntled aren't all that far removed from the countryside- they likely have someplace to return to, this is not the case in the USA.  Expectation levels in China aren't near as high as in the USA; granted, China's got to meet these lower expectations with far fewer people, but, the levels of attainability are closer to reality in China than in the USA: think about it- pet insurance?

Tue, 02/22/2011 - 00:57 | 984347 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Hey, for a guy who calls himself "Seer," you're freaking blind.

Granted China has been around for a long time, but do you have any idea of their history? Famines, mandarins, wars, disasters, and generally a giant, teeming third world melange.

Also, this line, "granted, China's got to meet these lower expectations with far fewer people" makes no sense. They have 1.6 billion people and they'd like about 1.2 billion of those to be middle class.

Something tells me you missed a lot of history or anthropology classes if you even attended college in the first place.


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