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Mike Krieger's Macro Themes For 2011
From Mike Krieger of KAM LP
Macro Themes for 2011
Death may come invisible, or in the holy wall of fire
In the breath between the markers, or on some black I-80 mile
From the madness of the government, to the vengeance of the sea
Everything is eclipsed by the shape of destiny
- Conor Oberst/Bright Eyes, No One Would Riot for Less
2010 Recap: Macro Trends Playing Out as Expected with Some Surprises...
Heading into 2010 I focused on three investment areas that I thought would benefit the most from the insane policies of desperate global Central Banks and governments adhering to the orders of the financial oligarchs that control them. They were to be long precious metals, agricultural commodities and oil. Not only was I a believer that most globally traded “hard assets” (as opposed to residential real estate) would do well as global fiat currencies are competitively devalued, but I thought that the three subgroups mentioned above would do particularly well since they are also strategic commodities. Basically, in a world going through the type of dangerous geopolitical shift we are in at the moment (these happen once in a generation and are called “Fourth Turnings” by Neil Howe and William Strauss) governments and in fact all institutions become subject to upheaval and revolution. Since governments are made up of human beings (generally narcissistic power hungry ones) we can generally forecast how they will react to such tension. In their attempt to maintain power and status governments usually do one of two things. They turn on their own people (or minorities within their own societies) or they turn the anger of the populace on a foreign enemy. In an environment where the global financial system is based on digital monopoly money created with a keystroke by Banana Ben and company, money itself will become suspect and any large foreign government with even a basic understanding of money matters will buy all the gold they can so that if necessary they have real money to use the basis for a new currency if necessary down the road. Just as gold is a necessary hedge for individual Americans that can see the destruction of currency values by their own government, it is too a hedge for China, Russia and others against their U.S. dollar reserve assets and indeed the global financial system to which they are a major participant. Agricultural commodities are just as important since if a nation like China cannot provide food at a reasonable cost to its citizens there will be revolution overnight. In fact , this is true in any nation. Oil fits in to the equation as a hedge if the whole thing breaks into global warfare which can occur once a nation loses the financial war happening now. If you don’t have access to enough oil you will lose any major conflict. Why do you think we are in the Middle East and are looking for an excuse to attack Iran? To spread Democracy? Don’t make me laugh.
There were two things that surprised me this past year. First, was the effectiveness of propaganda and market manipulation. Despite, the obvious lack of any real economic recovery other than phony aggregate demand increases due to inflationary policies many people actually think things are getting better. The Larry Summers’ of the world and other economic magicians like him have one economic policy and that is expectations management, which really means create enough propaganda, push the stock market up, and people will then believe things are getting better and then things will get better in reality. I believe this policy has been half successful so far. It has been successful is kicking the can down the road but it has not been and will not be successful in improving the standards of living for the American people and it is becoming more and more widely understood that this “respite” is merely being used by the small oligarch class in Washington D.C. and Wall Street to steal what little is left and push the middle class into serfdom. When this thing collapses again let’s never lose sight of this and remember who did what during these days of “recovery.”
The second thing that surprised me was the strong performance of consumer discretionary stocks and retail in general. I think the main thing that caused this particular group to perform so much better than expected in 2010 was the fact that crude remained range-bound for most of it. It is really only in the past couple of months that crude has broken out of its range. I think mature retail companies will be amongst the worst performing groups in 2011 and I will explain why in the section below.
2011: Back to the Basics (Again)
Just like the political world has been divided into two fake categories to keep us peasants in a controllable paradigm (Democratic/Republican, Red Team/Blue Team nonsense), it seems as if the investment world is similarly divided into China Bulls or U.S. Bulls. There is this idea that one nation is doing things so much better than the other and there will be this big winner to emerge. I hate to break it to everyone but there will be no winner in the intermediate term. The entire global economy is linked in a gigantic financial ponzi scheme based on a completely worthless reserve asset (the U.S. dollar) and none of the players will be able to extricate themselves from this easily. This is precisely why China has not allowed the yuan to strengthen materially. There is one reason and one reason alone for this. The government is terrified beyond belief of the near-term consequences of this since their only objective in reality is to maintain power. As a result, it is not just the U.S. that is digging themselves into a disastrous position but it is indeed much of the entire world.
The strategy of the Keynesian economic magicians in control of the levers of finance globally has been to stimulate artificial aggregate demand via a number of policies, the central component of which is buying worthless assets with equally worthless paper. Why not! In any event, of course this succeeds in boosting aggregate demand as it has since 2009. The problem is if the demand represents “malinvestments” based on phony signals what you end up with is pure inflation and no real increase in standards of living. This is manifesting itself in different ways in different countries like China and the U.S. but it is manifesting itself in one important way in both. The widening gap between rich and poor. This is becoming an enormous problem in both countries which is why in Beijing they recently announced a plan to raise the minimum wage next year by 21%, which is the second such increase in the past six months. How about this quote from the FT on Tuesday:
“In just the last three months we’ve already had to raise entry-level starting wages 60 per cent just to get people to come to a job interview,” said Jade Gray, chief executive of Gung Ho Pizza, a Beijing-based gourmet pizza delivery service. “With rising rents, the much higher cost of ingredients and now wage inflation, many businesses in the services industries are going to find it impossible not to pass on much higher costs to consumers.”
People in the U.S. think there is no inflation because wage growth has been subdued and because they still believe the most manipulated statistic in world history, the “core” CPI. Here in America, purchasing power has been maintained through transfer payments and extending unemployment insurance. The most disgusting thing about all of this is that Washington D.C. comes out and pretends to be heroes by doing this. Oh yeah, continuing to give people the same amount of money for more expensive bread while they rob you blind. That’s some leadership.
It’s Falling Apart as We Speak
As I read stories recently about China reducing supplies for rare earths, I watched oil and grains skyrocket to new highs I couldn’t help but think to myself: “we are going back to real trade again.” What I mean is that the prices for all the real “stuff” that at the end of the day makes the world go round are still in the early stages of being revalued to a realistic level. We want China’s rare earths, they want our grains. Ok, we can probably make a deal there. Despite what they may say publicly no one wants dollars and neither should you. We are still in the middle of a secular bull market in commodities. In times like these real assets that were grossly undervalued relative to financial assets in the prior secular bull become revalued. Money also becomes revalued. We are still working off the bubble in financial assets and the bubble in fiat currencies (especially the dollar) that popped in 2000. It will be over when the Dow Industrials = the price of gold wherever that may be. It is still 8:1. It reached about 1:1 in both the 1930s and the late 1970s. In terms of gold the S&P500 was down 12% this year. Pathetic.
All of the phony aggregate demand that has been created has now led to the surging commodity prices we are witnessing at the moment. This is a very important signal that must not be ignored. Just as the surge in late 2007-mid 2008 was a huge warning of things to come. It is telling us the current global economic model of GDP growth at all costs is failing. It is telling us we are using up all of the world’s resources without any understanding of sustainable development. The U.S. government is actually encouraging people to buy homes and spend money on trinkets made abroad rather than figure out new sources of energy. We had our window to show real leadership and make the tough decisions and we failed miserably. The Kondratieff winter is knocking on our door and will blow in with reckless abandon in 2011/2012.
This is not to say I am bearish on mankind or the world 10-20 years from now. I am not. I think once we finish the next 5-10 years which could be very, very difficult we can emerge into a New Renaissance. We just need to clean out the trash first. That means the current group of political and economic leaders that have infected the global economy. My advice remains the same. You must accept the fact that the current model has failed and will be replaced. This is why I am so bearish on retail. The business model for too many of them is based on sourcing cheap goods abroad and selling them here. Those days are over. They are over because of wage and other inflation in China and the business model will also be slammed by the cost of shipping things once oil breaches $100/b again, which I expect in early 2011. Precious metals, agriculture and oil remain my favorite themes.
The War on Terror Sham
I witnessed 9/11 in person and it had a huge impact on me emotionally. For a while it blinded me to the ways the government was using the war on terror against its own people. After many years of deep introspection and not jumping to any quick conclusions I unfortunately have come to the conclusion that the war on terror is a sham. This isn’t to say there aren’t real risks of terrorism. There are. There are also real risks to life in general. It is risky to drive a car. It is risky to go skiing. It is risky to live in a big city. That said, once a society trades freedom for safety it is finished. Pigs are safe in their pens too as are all livestock being prepared for slaughter.
What I am saying is that I think the “war on terror” is being used to generate fear in the hearts of unsuspecting citizens so that the government can put in a police state. The top levels of intelligence understand what is to come in the economy and are desperate to put in the police state grid at all costs. I am not telling anyone what to think on this matter. I am only asking you TO THINK. The fate of the nations depend on it. The following was posted on Zerohedge last week but many on my email list may not have seen it. Please read and think about the implications of this…
Two very important articles came out last week that you must take the time to read thoroughly. The first is from the Washington Post and is entitled: “Monitoring America.” It is a lengthy article worth your time since it shows in no uncertain terms how the U.S. government has now officially started to turn war on terror technology and military weaponry on AMERICAN CITIZENS domestically. Stuff that had formerly only been “used in Iraq or Afghanistan” is now being turned on Americans and this newspaper reports it in a matter of fact manner. It also describes how anyone can just say that they think a fellow citizen is acting suspiciously and then all of a sudden the government’s “fusion centers” start snooping on you and a file remains “open” for five years. For nothing more than someone saying they thought you were acting suspiciously. Welcome to East Germany. This is where tax dollars are going, that and to pay bankster bonuses. Link is below.
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/top-secret-america/articles/monitoring-america/?hpid=topnews
Second article also encompasses and interview with Attorney General Eric Holder. In it he clearly explains that enemy number one is the domestic America citizen and that is where the war on terror is now focused. This is exactly as I predicted earlier this year. That the “war on terror” would be soon reversed onto average everyday citizens. So how about this one. In the interview, Holder talks about Anwar al-Awlaki and talks about how this guy is enemy number 1 now and as dangerous as Bin Laden. Well, interesting because this guy was invited to DINE AT THE PENTAGON after 9/11. This is a fact. It was reported by all the mainstream news sources. See these links on it….
Anwar al-Awlaki - the radical spiritual leader linked to several 9/11 attackers, the Fort Hood shooting, and the attempted Christmas Day bombing of an airliner - was a guest at the Pentagon in the months after 9/11, a Pentagon official confirmed to CBS News.
Awlaki was invited as "...part of an informal outreach program" in which officials sought contact "...with leading members of the Muslim community," the official said. At that time, Awlaki was widely viewed as a "moderate" imam at a mosque in Northern Virginia.
This is what Holder said today about him: "He's an extremely dangerous man. He has shown a desire to harm the United States, a desire to strike the homeland of the United States," Holder said. "He is a person who -- as an American citizen -- is familiar with this country and he brings a dimension, because of that American familiarity, that others do not."
CBS reports
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/10/21/national/main6978200.shtml
MSNBC reports
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39768584/ns/us_news-security/
Fox News Reports
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/10/20/al-qaeda-terror-leader-dined-pentagon-months/
So our government is so trustworthy on intelligence that we had the most dangerous terrorist in the world over for dinner at the Pentagon! So either we are really retarded beyond belief or the whole “WAR ON TERROR” is a total SHAM to place in the police state. More on the interview with Holder, he is consistently demonizing the internet with statements like.
“"The ability to go into your basement, turn on your computer, find a site that has this kind of hatred spewed ... they have an ability to take somebody who is perhaps just interested, perhaps just on the edge, and take them over to the other side," he said.”
Full article here: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/attorney-general-eric-holders-blunt-warning-terror-attacks/story?id=12444727&page=1
This is all good news and bad news. The good news is that the global plantation owners would not be moving so aggressively unless they were losing the info war. Clearly they are, which is why they are freaking out. The next thing that is likely to happen is a false flag attack where the “attacker” ends up being a libertarian with a Ron Paul sticker. That way they can move from Al Awlaki to the folks they are really afraid of: Good caring and armed American people that still have the capacity to think rationally.
Final Thought
It is snowing outside my window right now. The weather out here on the Colorado foothills is really interesting. It is either sunny or it is snowing. It never seems to just be “gray.” It’s really distinct from the weather back in New York and it fits my personality well. Despite all the hardships we face, life is beautiful and good and it is all about embracing great people and experiences. I wish everyone a happy, safe and prosperous 2011.
Below is a link to a video that uses the full song whose lyrics I quoted at the top. This is not a political video in that it is not endorsing either major party. Bush and Obama make me want to vomit with equal vigor. I have no patience for fake Messiahs. It’s just a great song.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqeK_dnPDHQ&feature=related
Signing off on 2010 from Colorado,
Mike
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How can you not be bearish on human kind? There is no way in hell all that debt can be repaid. Promises will not be kept and there will be one HELL of a revolt everywhere. We are not going to get through this without a shit load of people dying.
Ask Ashton Kuchner. He knows. LMAO
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/30/georgia-bill-gold-and-silver_n_...
Bobby Franklin, a Republican state legislator from Georgia, has introduced a new piece of legislation that, if passed, would force Georgians to pay their taxes in gold and silver coins.
Cool Bobby, just make sure its by grams, and not the psuedo face values your Fed/Treasury puts on them.
Be the best Gvt political scam ever............
Dupe
By the way...what every happened to the best posted of ALL TIME...
CHEEKY BASTARD. You are missed
I hope that his health is in great condition. He did well to stop the original trolls on this site. There is no need to post when he is around, he can always some up the issue.
The entire middle class of Americans is likely to fall into the poverty gap, according to a new report by the Economic Policy Institute.
http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=725489&ht=Middle-class-Americans-unlikely-to-survive-gap
http://www.epi.org/
Explain your quote.
Buy silver.
Bearish on a humanity driven to perpetual growth on a finite planet, are you not aware of the crack that you're smoking?
Well humanity aside, I'm long-term bearish on the sun. Oh, sure, things look all bright and sunny now, but in 5 billion years or so, the sun will have used-up all it's fuel resources and expand into a red giant, enveloping the earth and incinerating everthing (putting an end to the question of global warming once and for all).
Or markets driven to perputual growth by their shareholders?
E X A C T L Y!! Milestones
We are going to inflate our way out of this debt.
Selling Pitch-forks could be lucrative!
Empires die hard nasty deaths. Let's see how irrational and violent this one is on the way out.
This pic sums up the state of the empire in the next few years.
http://goninmovieblog.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/centurion_still04.jpg
We are doomed. Anyone else have the thought in the back of their head, "I gotta find a way out of this place?"
No way, baby. I'm in it for the Big Game. Would not miss this for the world.
yea, in 2004, long gone now ;) ..two years too early for the housing top, but fuck it I was right, and so glad to be out and gone.
Yeah, long ago, Eric Burden.
Fuck you, Mike Krieger - YOU voted for Obama and all the Larry Summers clowns that came with him. Chump.
As opposed to GWB and Hank Paulson, The Ben Bernank, Chris Cox, et. al.
I didn' vote for President. Didn't vote the time before that, and apparently I should not have voted for Gore, even though I did, because I was not going to have a Bush.
Laughed at my Replub friends when Palin was put up ro run alongside 'Ol Crazy, and said 'oh snap!' when Bam came off of his campaign to endorse and vote for TARP.
Here's a question, Mr. LH. Since no one I have ever voted for since 1972 has been elected, am I suffering from taxation without representation? Or is it that I am a victim of the unadulterated stupidity of my "fellow Amerikans"?
Both.
Durden/Singer '12
>> Durden/Singer '12
= McCain/Palin...
Well you were really blind voting for Kalijah the wooden store front Indian.
You think we would be where we are,better or worse off if B-Hoe had not gotten in?.
My money says FAR better off,had we not got a socialist,fascist.
Bush1 & 2 are Kunts, but the current regime has passed more devastating legislation,quicker,and more dangerous to the Republic than any other in my life.
We would end up here sooner or later, but quite a bit later.
IMHO
As opposed to GWB and Hank Paulson, The Ben Bernank, Chris Cox, et. al.
While the Bernak is Bush's monster, it is difficult to believe that Bush would have allowed Bernak to print $2 T.
LOL
bernanke needs permission to print? from the president? what difference does it make who's in office? it's going to happen at 'their' discretion, not 'ours'
Yeah, you're right...Krieger probably voted for those assholes too, so fuck him twice
Short history. I happened to move to the US when Gore and Bush were fighting over the chads. Very shortly after was 9-11. To this day I can't watch that coverage but it did lead to me reading more economic blogs and figuring out something that I knew as a kid - money and cui bono?
So for most of the years I was in the States Bush was in power and the majority of people I talked to didn't like it. Phrases like "Bizarro World" or "any one but bush" would creep into the conversation.
Iraq war run up - they should have hired a better marketing team. Colin Powell at the UN - I don't understand how he can live with himself. Because I was a guest worker in a foreign country - I went back to my own country to march in a city where there were hundreds of thousands of protesters in the streets opposing this war.
No avail.
I had left the US when Obama started running but there was the long on him - any one but Bush. And he seemed articlate and said he wanted to end the wars and fix wall street.
I was suckered. I admit that. Not that I even had a vote but I thought he might usher in some positive change. The only thing I see now is that there is no difference between the two parties.
well if you don't know, you better aks somebody.
I was calling NeObama "Teddy Ruxpin" during the campaign. It was patently obvious that he was a chump
If you think we'd be better off if we had elected McCain you're an even bigger idiot than I thought.
Nothing really left to say. Great article. Too bad only 0.000138% of the populace will read it and "get" it. Oh well, just makes for a target rich environment.
Finally, a comment I can second.
Great Article.
Thanks, ZH.
I thought it was a well written article as well. Concise, easy to follow and plain as the nose on your face. And yes, a target rich environment, but then, that is the value of all the opposition camp games: people are so busy arguing, they never feel the loss of their wallets.
On the GWOT I'm voting sham.
It no longer matters if your a bear or bull. It doesn't matter if your a republication or Democrat.
What matters is the vision of your government and the media spin of their success. Have a chuckle at the complexity to the root problems.
Give Your Tax Cuts Back For Distributive Justice!Comrades! Do you make more than $250,000 a year?
Are you disgusted by the extension of the Bush tax cuts?
Don’t you hate having to keep all that extra money?
Don’t you wish there was some way to spread your unwanted wealth around, yet you lack the necessary apparatus to have it taken from you and redistributed to those with greater need, via the all important middleman who will take care of such petty little details for you?
Then we have just the thing for you! Three Yale professors, their toady little protégé, and a webmaster working out of his mom’s basement have put together the perfect site to help redistribute your unnecessary wealth!
The website number is http://giveitbackforjobs.org/
I don’t know what it does for jobs, but maybe they picked that domain name because http://www.shakedownsocialism.com was already spoken for.
Nonetheless, I’m very impressed since two of the professors, according to their bios on the website, are into something newfangled—or maybe it’s just relabeled after being unfairly discredited by the right wing noise machine—called “distributive justice.”
Quote:
Americans who have the means should refuse to surrender to Senate Republicans. We should act, together, to give back our Bush tax cuts, by making donations to organizations that promote fairness, economic growth, and a vibrant middle class. GiveItBackforJobs enables joint action, by all visitors to this site, to redirect our Bush tax cuts to the wise and just programs that our government would promote if it had not been hijacked. As more and more Americans do so, GiveItBackforJobs will begin to replicate good government policy, outside the government and free from the grip of Senate Republicans. We can, in this way, begin to redeem candidate Obama’s promise that “we are the ones we’ve been waiting for.”
Why should you write a check directly to The Salvation Army, when these guys will take your money and give it to The Salvation Army for you? Plus, you’d be giving them a job to do. Hey, now I know why they call it “Give It Back For Jobs”!
Keep up on the government calamity days. You realise, the word 'calamity day' is used when a school shuts down for a snow day.
How times have changed on the original definition of this word. 'The word calamity was first derived from calamus when the corn could not get out of the stalk.'
I have 1000s of units of distributive justice to issue. Mainly in the 123 grain to 230 grain variety.
Any chance you live in Washington D.C.?
are you serious ?!?!
I've often wondered why the Limosine Liberal crowd doesn't write a check to Old Uncle Sam if they feel they are being undertaxed.
And since when are a husband and wife making $250k/yr millionaires and billionaires?
Since 50% of Americans don't make enough to even qualify to pay more than 2.59% in tax on AGI.
250k is in the top 2%.
Anyone who earns that amount of money and isn't a millionaire after earning it for a while is a retard.
It's ridiculously easy to become a millionaire earning 250k
the same stale garbage endlessly recycled and regurgitated ad nauseam. an inundation of parroted, mind numbing nostrums devoid of imagination, insight, or awareness. i am ashamed to share the same general geography as this disingenuous alex jones/max keiser groupie with his inane and fruitless pontificating and belabored obviousness. junk away likeminded fools.
So why are you here, and why have you bothered to waste your time posting?
So easy to place an austerity package or welfare check on the end of fishing hook.
The mulligan fish types (vegetarian) seem to always catch the end of the hook. Why?
that means your in my same general geography, and i can smell you. yuck†
" an inundation of parroted, mind numbing nostrums devoid of imagination, insight, or awareness."
Please enlighten me ol yard farmer with your own personal insight into the matter. How has our economy survived without lies, manipulation and bailouts? What have we done to solve the issues that caused the crisis to begin with? Name ONE EXAMPLE that hasn't been solved with borrowed money or somekind of bailout? This country was built on capitalism and in two short years we have turned into a fascist bunch of wussies that won't even fart without knowing what Ben Bernanke is going to do. We have Corporations, Banks and a Federal Reserve running the country in ways that suit their needs. Actually let me rephrase that, We have the CRONIES that caused the depression running the show now. America has been held hostage by the ones who created the mess, it's that simple. Ol yard Farmer what are my kids going to do with their future? With 85% of college grads now in debt to the Government at an average of $24,000 per student how will they ever get off the tread mill? I could use some insight from a farmer like you because I don't see that anything Michael wrote in this article is out of line with the current situation. What is our government preparing for? Everthing they claimed caused this depression is worse now then it was in 2007! More homes are in foreclosure, more Americans are unemployed, more middle class people are bankrupt, more CRE is vacant then ever before, more small businesses have failed, there is an additional 13.5 TRILLION in debt, our dollar has been devalued, commodity prices are higher, cost of living has increased 25%, average wages for the middle class have dropped, we have lost 4 million jobs overseas that we will never see again and you say we are mind numbing nostrums?? All I ask is for you to back up your statement with a few facts showing that America is on the road to recovery through innovation and creation other then spackle and paint. Go ahead farmboy, the stage is yours...knock yourself out!
I'm pleasantly surprised to see that Krieger, CHS, Denninger (finally!), and many other observers are finely tuning into what ZH's very own Cognitive Dissonance recognized awhile back: this entire exercise is about maintaining the status quo of those who presently control the system.
Now, while CogDis may believe various covert actions pre-date 9/11, or that others tend to focus on 1913, they should note that Belloc wrote about these very trends & issues in his excellent book, the 'Servile State', published back in 1912. And what does the preface to this fine book mention? That the beginnings of the servile state can be traced back to Henry VIII and his confiscation of vast tracts of private property. (Including 1,000s of small, private family farms.)
Yet I would hesitate to even identify this as a true turning point. Rather, I would suggest there never has been a turning point, in that our vision of freedom has always been a mirage. It is only the utilization of fossil fuels that simply made the task of managing expectations via the promise of hope & change more convenient & efficient than traditional methods.
However, with the advent of peak resources, we very well may begin to see the mask drop as regimes resort to age-old, time-tested techniques for population control. Ultimately, the only thing really holding us back from straight-up, in-your-face slavery, along the lines of ancient Egypt, Greece, and Rome, or the softer versions as practiced in feudal Europe & Japan, is merely timing.
The key to PTB success is choosing the time & place for implementation.
Its all a big lie. The nice thing is we get to watch the end game from a front row seat. Popcorn time.
Now ya got it, TJ. Just make sure your corn is heirloom.
There was a whole handful back in the day of ZH blog. Personally, I miss London banker.
CD is one of the few remaining. I bow down in respect to his contribution. Just my option.
FYI, london banker is back.
London Banker
Your a gem. Thank you. As you know.. follow this kind of International Ponzi shit.
Media enables portable card-table shell games.. 'OPERATIONS TO FLOURISH'.
Ponzi money shoe box runners fold the card table and are SEC grandfathered a safe legal DOJ escape. New card tables are SEC formed, the system repeats.
Bookmarked, read later.
Thank you again. :>)
London Banker is available at:
http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/
Thank you as well. Some may already know, FinReg is going to implode on the very architects.
Enjoy the TV drama
Not fair! You've been reading history!
The US is on a collision course with Venezuela. Just yesterday the US revoked the visa for the Venezuelan Ambassador to the United States. Also there is captured drug kingpin Walid Makled who is linked to high-ranking Venezuelan officials for money-laundering, drug-trafficking being interrogated in Columbia. And there is the Iran connection with Venezuela for missiles. No shortage of false flag opportunities here.
Of course Mexico with the drug cartels spilling into Texas, Arizona killing Border patrol and kidnappings. So, the US could easily have their sights set on the resources out of Venezuela and Mexico.
Also there is the natural gas in the US for transportation. So peak oil for the US may be a while away, but what about it for China, Japan, Western Europe etc... That is where the dilemma is.
have u read this...i have a hunch...i think this is exactly how its going to be played out.....
THE BEAR WILL RETURN IN 2011
http://goldscents.blogspot.com/2010/12/bear-will-return-in-2011.html
today the dollar is down ......breaking support at 79.55...now 79.523.....so downtrend has started...............and the indian Markets have been following the inverse relation to the dollar exactly.......i think its time to go long NSE....for the final 5th wave....
Prechter, as well as his minions, have gone on record lately saying that gold is in a 5th wave blowoff, and that the US stock markets are showing signs of extreme stress, horribly overwrought investor optimism, and that the Euro is toast (note what has happened to the EUR/CHF vs. the CH stock market; he is predicting a similar, but far more eventful event for the US markets and the $). He is still predicting massive deflation prior to hyperinflation; most commentators do not look at the massive trillions in derivative overhang, which will necessarily implode values of just about everything for a while. Even the Bernank will not be able to cope with it; it is likely to happen far too quickly. Just a thought, before you commit much.
Prechter believes that the notes of a bankrupt State in the process of "P3" collapse are going to become paradoxically more worthful.
go figure.
Gung the Ho, Pizza
mikey, how many inches do you have?
if you ever need maid services, don't use jill's cleaning.
Looks like the world economy needs a bit of a scrubbing - probably won't be so pleasant...
Good piece until he got all 'false flag'.
If you eat all your seed corn now, then in the Spring plant a few extra acres, you'll have more than enough seed corn come next year!
Harry, it is falling apart, it is falling apart. Be sure and put that statement in your "bear study" Ha ha ha
Bears in a zoo.
Also at ZH ... the zoos can't contain us all
"Pigs are safe in their pens too as are all livestock being prepared for slaughter."
nice ;)
The governments still have the taxation rights and military to enforce that if needed. They can tax everything to 100% and declare every friggin piece of precious metal illegal... how to survive in that environment?
Maybe folks from the former U.S.S.R can answer that? They WERE from the world's number TWO super power.
Who says Amercians will sit and take it?.
I do not see when push finally comes to shove, the TBTF, and the PTB standing.
You have a cure for 40-60 million armed to the teeth Americans, wanting a piece of anyones ass stupid enough to try and stand against them?.
Urban warfare against those numbers is a lost cause.Iraq was damn sure no picnic against far less odds, and Trashcanistan is a lost cause(we learned nada from the Soviets).
When you lose it all, you lose it.
Life has no worth,and believe it or not some things are worth dying for.
Paybacks a bitch, and Karma has a way of coming full circle.
Take a look at www.cluborlov.com, as well as www.shtfplan.com, The Sovereign Individual, and Sovereign Man (Simon Black). That's just for starters.
The Mossberg has landed.
I read something by Dimitry in arount 2004/2005 that was brilliant, off-the-wall but maybe not so off the wall. He definitely made me read wider and deeper.
"When this thing collapses again let’s never lose sight of this and remember who did what during these days of “recovery.”.." I would add to not forget the idiots that got us here. The same ones that are proposing simple minded solutions during these days of "recovery."
It's good to hear from a young Man with some insight and passion.. Good Luck in the new Environs, a loss for NY.
It's not just the large cap retailers sourcing cheap from China that will find trouble, although no one said so.
I question every business model with the oncoming train wreck (and agree stocks will get blistered beyond belief at some point though there is still the possibility of them going up in hyperinflation).
It's not hard to imagine the great business models that should be questioned:
-Coca-cola. No one should be drinking this garbage and under hyperinflation, once the inventory is gone because of looting, it will not be replishened. Water will be hard enough to come by.
--All the food manufactorers that rely on cheap corn subsidized by the Government that is a sad state of affairs. Companies like Kraft, etc. See ya.
Yep. Every business model is in jeopardy unless it provides an absolute necessity to mankind.
And then consider what "economies of scale" do when reversed... High volume operates on thin margins.
Is it propaganda we're seeing? Or, flat out willfull censorship and witholding of the relevant facts on the ground and the known consequences to come?
Quibblers would argue propaganda is both, but seems that both sides don't want to talk about the messy details of a meltdown because it might "scare" people. Self censorship just means they're the ones that are really scared.
Im calling a top in oligarch bashing and revolution cheering
You need to revisit your charts. We are only in wave one of Oligarch bashing and Revolution cheering.
The Right blames big government and the Left blames big corporations and when the People finally realize they are the same thing the bashing and cheering are going parabolic.
Hear, hear.
+1
...and on fundamentals to boot!
Great article.
Bank of America is a Public Disgrace and Should be PUT OUT OF BUSINESS!! The BANKING ELITE have cost TAXPAYERS TRILLIONS in FUTURE BAILOUT MEASURES and the AMERICAN PEOPLE are SUFFERING!
To find out more about the TRUTH of the recent MORTGAGE SCAM, watch the YouTube video “BANK OF AMERICA ~ A PUBLIC DISGRACE” at (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXDpOBOS94A).
Anonymous-
This is absolutely appalling and I am dumbfounded why the American people aren’t RIOTING in the STREETS as we speak. Thw civil and political unrest we’ve seen in Europe is without a doubt coming to the United States!
Bend over America and enjoy getting SCREWED by the BIGGEST BAILED OUT BANK in the Country!!
... seems straight forward to me Mike.
Sun Tzu - Declare war on your enemies.
The programmers screwed up, 33 out of 35 College Bowl Games are on cable network ESPN. WTF, the plebs financially support all public collegiate institutions at the state level and now have to subscribe to cable TV to see teams that THEY PAID for. If they won't revolt now, the odds of any revolt are zero.
LOL
Revolt won't happen until masses of children are crying from hunger.
From the sizes of the butts in line at A&P and paying with the "Bridge Card" (foodstamps), that won't take long if the monthly deposits stop.
I am a logical, numbers driven, person. I'll be damned if I can see anyway to fix the mess we are in.
And, just to set the record straight, all these laws, all these "turn against citizens to protect citizens" regulations, laws and punishments, didn't start with terrorism. We started it with Prohibition, then really ramped it up with the drug (and drunk driving) wars/laws.
All in the name of our children, and safety, of course.
Now we are shocked that the same argument is being used with Terrorism crossing out Drugs as the "enemy."
Welcome to the New World, same as the Old World. Just with easier access, and a better "outside" enemy, for controlling the population.
Baaa
Well, Teresa, at least there will no longer be all those thunderthighs at The Great Atlantic & Pacific. Perhaps they have moved their brontosauran girth across the street to Kroger.
Chocolate rations will increase by 0.5% in Q1
Oh good. I like chocolate. There's a catch though isn't there?
Quite the magic you performed on the Harvard endowment fund Summers, you arsephuck. Back for another round I see.
"Despite all the hardships we face, life is beautiful and good and it is all about embracing great people and experiences."
"I wish everyone a happy, safe and prosperous 2011."
roger that.
good trading on you.
twittering as stocktradr
Gee, Chumbawamba doesn't seem so radical anymore, does he?
We are All Chumbawamba.
Now that would make a great t-shirt! And for any who haven't listened to music link at the end of the article - I think it is awesome.
As others have said, I'm back. And thank you.