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Mike Steinhardt: "No One Is Long-Term Bullish"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Hedge fund icon Mike Steinhardt voices on what the smartest money on Wall Street is thinking and it is nothing good - fast forward to 3 minutes 25 seconds. Steinhardt is completely correct in saying "You can not talk about valuations readily" in this market.

In a nutshell - "Everyone is focusing on the next tick" and the follow up question: "What's going to drive growth" eventually?

 

 

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Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:23 | 31860 texpat
texpat's picture

Crap. Getting out of this market will be worse than getting out of a burning Chinese nightclub.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:34 | 31885 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It is said of drivers in Rome, that a red light is merely a suggestion. Stop loss orders will prove just as effective.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:53 | 31927 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Things I wish I said

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:31 | 31874 Alexander Supertramp
Alexander Supertramp's picture

“As I have often argued:  Even the Almighty cannot determine a single correct value for the market as a whole.”  

– Burton Malkiel; “How much Higher Can the Market Go?”; The Wall Street Journal; 9/22/99

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:32 | 31875 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"A mythical island where everyone earns a living taking in each others laundry." Robert Louis Stevenson

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:33 | 31881 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Fair value is 6500 where the mafia boss came out with his famous reversal of his rampant catastrophe pessimism and said p/e's are a good value here.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:33 | 31882 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

No one is Long term bullish... Maybe that's why SPX is going to break above 1570? :)

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:09 | 31956 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

me likes!

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:26 | 31984 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Now that's what I call a 'V' !!!

Tue, 08/11/2009 - 08:34 | 32651 ivant
ivant's picture

Some say square-root here :P I wonder what that likes. We shoot to 17 billion on DOW and then stop. Markets all freeze and stay there for a few years. Of course there could be a secret meaning: square root of the current price. Ouch.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:35 | 31888 Anonymous
Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:35 | 31889 Jacks Complete ...
Jacks Complete Lack of Surprise's picture

Sup, Tyler.

So what you are saying is Mike hit the mark on mark to market?

I think it's cute you realized I wasn't pulling your leg about the legality of front running, I mean shit man, they were even charging fees on their public books. You could get a fucking rate card to see just how much you wanted to front run like it was dim sum capitalism.

Now that has run its course, it's time to blow the lid of GSEs.

I hope you are clever enough to know what I mean, if not I'll drop another dime later this week.

After I have cashed in on it, of course. Till then keep pulling levers and pushing buttons.

 

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:07 | 31950 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Are you the masked magician? How does the "pull my finger" trick work?

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:20 | 32061 Assetman
Assetman's picture

I think I just sharted! :)

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 18:12 | 32152 Jacks Complete ...
Jacks Complete Lack of Surprise's picture

More the lone ranger on the cyber frontier, but whatever fantasy lets you sleep at night, go with that.

And the pull the finger trick works because most people are gullible as hell and easy marks, such as yourself.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 20:44 | 32333 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Personal attacks can get you banned.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:38 | 31894 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

That is how bottoms form - when the stars of the last cycle(s) can't imagine how the stock market can rise.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:50 | 31922 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

"can't imagine how" is a phrase that here means they haven't decide how and when to blow the next bubble, how to steer the market profits into the most deserving hands, and which industry regulations need to be "adjusted" to permit all this.

They should just jump the broom and form a cartel, figure out their bubble-ology by committee, and issue market targets for the next 5 years like it was Soviet era central planning.

We need to know what to mindlessly pursue! Show us da route to da money! Come on guys, work that mojo!

cougar

 

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:39 | 31899 simonsays
simonsays's picture

Which producer let this segment air? Off with their heads!

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:41 | 31903 D.O.D.
D.O.D.'s picture

WOW, was that an actuall conversation on CNBC?

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:44 | 32113 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

i noticed the same thing.....i kept expecting
some loud mouthed cnbc buffoon to yell
"You're WRONG!!!
Reuters just reported today markets were poised
to surge 300% by the end of the year!!" like
they were at a women's mud wrestling match...

Tue, 08/11/2009 - 08:41 | 32657 ivant
ivant's picture

LMAO!! HAhahahahahahahahaha. E.G. have you guys noticed when Hendry speaks of everything getting killed some dude constantly says you are wrong.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:42 | 31904 Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aRF5bSZyUr3s

 

Corp's (ses) are hoarding money. SO much for that inventory stocking and recovery BS.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:43 | 31906 JohnKing
JohnKing's picture

This Mike Steinhardt?

creepy town.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:17 | 32058 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Great link. Thank you JohnKing.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:45 | 31910 stedanrac
stedanrac's picture

 If we fast forwarded to 3:25, we'd miss Becky's pride and drawing a square root symbol....

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:46 | 31912 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

For the old-timers out there, does anyone have a recollection of the robert rubin desk layout (personnel wise) from the mid/late 70s?

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:22 | 31976 Milton
Milton's picture

Charlie Haas started as a stockbroker at Goldman, but he's not that old to have been with Rubin.

Now he's running the "Haas of Pain" which isn't too far off from the House of Goldman.

http://www.haasofpain.com/

 

 

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 22:01 | 32283 nogeithner (not verified)
nogeithner's picture

Valuations at nosebleed levels and the only ones buying are computers that sell less than a second later. Buy and hold takes on a whole new meaning!

my newest bookmarked finance website..http://www...

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:23 | 31980 . . .
. . .'s picture

Why don't you use a layout like Michael Price?  He had everyone in one room, with a large T-shaped rading desk.  Price at the head of the T, and his traders along the sides.  All analysts sat at individual desks facing Price.

Why imitate Rubin in any way?

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:26 | 31986 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

pretty sure davidson of wexford as well as perry were some of the first mates. don't recall who the second fiddle lines was.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:53 | 32021 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Someone has done an nndb map of Goldman connections.

www.nndb.com

go to "nndb mapper", click "start a new map", click "browse map library", click the "business" category, scroll down to Goldman, then click "load", when the map appears you can expand each person and expand the "nodes".

But warning, this will bug you out.

Tue, 08/11/2009 - 12:54 | 32948 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

Rubin began his career as an attorney at the firm of Cleary, Gottlieb, Steen & Hamilton in New York City. He joined Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., or simply Goldman Sachs , is a bank holding company that engages in investment banking, Security services, and investment management....

 in 1966 as an associate in the risk arbitrage
Risk arbitrage

Risk arbitrage, or merger arbitrage, is an investment or trading strategy often associated with hedge funds.Two principal types of mergers and acquisitions are possible:...

 department . Rubin proved his skills at the intricate art of investing his firm's capital in high-reward arbitrage
Arbitrage

In economics and finance, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a price differential between two or more markets: striking a combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices....

 opportunities and became a general partner in 1971. He joined the management committee in 1980 along with fellow Democrat Jon Corzine
Jon Corzine

Jon Stevens Corzine is the Governor of New Jersey and a former United States Senator. He was sworn into office on January 17, 2006, for a four-year term ending in 2010, and has said that he intends to run for re-election in 2009....

, later a U.S. senator and governor of New Jersey
New Jersey

New Jersey is a state in the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeastern United States regions of the United States. It is bordered on the north by New York, on the east by the Hudson River and the Atlantic Ocean, on the southwest by Delaware, and on the west by Pennsylvania....

. Rubin was Vice Chairman and Co-Chief Operating Officer from 1987 to 1990. From the end of 1990 to 1992, Rubin served as Co-Chairman and Co-Senior Partner along with Stephen Friedman
Stephen Friedman (PFIAB)

Stephen Friedman is the current Chairman of the United States President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. He was nominated on October 27, 2005 to replace Brent Scowcroft in the position....
http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/Robert_Rubin#encyclopedia

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:50 | 31914 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

Steinhardt points to an interesting "phenomenon:"  He speaks to no real bulls he says, but ink they must not be angry enough bears either.  Therefore, the market will continue to float higher, IMHO.

I also got the impression that he thought a depression or near death experience would result in great changes in America and that hasn't happened.h

This conversation was too thought provoking, is there a CNBC sister station we don't know about?

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:58 | 31935 Handle with care
Handle with care's picture

There have been great changes in America, we were all just looking in the wrong direction

 

When Obama was elected he was criticised for one of his team saying, "We shouldn't let a crisis go to waste", well that is exactly the philosophy that Wall Street has followed.

 

Their greed and insane risk taking created the greatest crisis in global capitalism since the Great Depression and their punishment has been to have managed to plug directly into the money printing facilities that are rightfully the perogative of the People alone.

 

They have held the economy hostage by claiming that if they get hurt they'll take everything down with them unless a ransom is paid.  That ransom has been paid.  The greatest ransom in history.  Trillions of dollars.

 

But the greatest change is that the same people who caused the crisis were loaned the taxpayers money at very low rates to buy the debt the government had to issue to pay them the money and they will receive their returns on this debt, paid for from the pockets of productive taxpayers, for generations to come.

 

The change is that now EVERYONE in America works to enrich Goldman Sachs and the tiny elite at the top and will do forever.

 

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 22:00 | 32402 milkum bilkum pc
milkum bilkum pc's picture

We were all given a break because the panel tossed questions at each other... Beck's ear didn't tell her to say something "brilliant".

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:47 | 31917 Milton
Milton's picture

Probability of S&P testing the 666 lows?

Gerstenhaber: "1 in 3"

Cooperman: "1 in 4"

Steinhardt: "more than that"

 

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:23 | 31978 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Well. Given that they would be loath to guess too high a probablity for fear of breaking the markets (or being labled lunatics) the number actually in their heads must be closer to 1 in 2, or 2 in 3, then.

I get the feeling that TPTB are furiously trying to keep us on the level part of the square-root sign (once we hit it and we may have arrived already) to avoid a double-dip. As was mentioned in the clip, nobody is talking about this any more because of all the money pumped into the system, but that money hasn't gone anywhere that it will do any good. Thus I hear commentors saying that if there is a second dip then it's a LONG way down from here. The markets are dysfunctional and lacking any of the past resiliencies, program trading is much of the volume and tends to drive volatility, consumers are hiding deep in their shells, the government has run out of bullets and mobs are begining to form, Treasury auctions are teetering, and everyone is waiting to sell into the trough. Nobody wants to be the last one out, but they want to lose as little as possible on investments in the market from before 2007.

If that really is the mindset -- if everyone is just waiting to determine how best to exit the burning building -- then we are poised on the threashold of a very dangerous, very chaotic scene.

cougar

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:55 | 32026 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

ty

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:02 | 32036 Milton
Milton's picture

My bad. Steinhardt actually said "less than that", in answering Quintanilla's comment of going back to 666.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 15:59 | 31936 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

How's the SOX working as a leading indicator/index this month?

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:07 | 31952 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

Actually it's probably working great in today's fucked up world. 

It topped out last week and has been off now for a few days, right.  Now, when the TRANS or XBD or some other sector starts to roll over we can pump the SOX and hold that in while the others sell off, then rotate elsewhere, rinse and repeat.

It's a perfect market, 22 days running 140 + S&P points and no sell offs of more than 20 points from a high to a low.

Utopia Trading at its best.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:06 | 32043 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Ala Tour De France, with every index loaded on EPO.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:01 | 31940 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

O h my it has come to this. Lowest volume day in maybe years the desperation trade of c fnm fre maybe half the total volume. This as the author suggests is going down. May i suggest selling all long positions and watching the next month?

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:01 | 31941 mule65
mule65's picture

What is long-term?

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:04 | 31944 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

When he said "less than that", did he mean less than a 1/3 probability of going back to 666, or a 1/3 probability of going to less than 666?

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:26 | 31985 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

I heard that as "less than the last bottom at 666"

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:35 | 31997 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

As in he thinks the markets will go lower than
666? At least thats what I gathered from listening.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:04 | 31945 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Well "they" certainly want you to stay bullish that's for sure. Talk about a power hour on the SP500 futures...

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:29 | 31989 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Really? They sounded quite alarmed to me. "Where will the growth come from?" was not a bullish sentiment. That was basically saying that the party is over UNLESS someone is going to propose another asset bubble. Really, the party was over around 1995 and there is no long-term plan for growth even from that far back.

Without a means to target GDP growth outside of financial voodoo, it's so over.

cougar

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:05 | 31947 Ags Nightmare
Ags Nightmare's picture

There is no long term...we trade in dog years now.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:07 | 31949 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

All one really needs to do is pull up weekly and monthly charts to see just how far ahead of itself this market has gotten. The length and slope of those charts is such that one would have to believe that there is big growth ahead to be bullish at these levels. I have just one question for the bulls:

Where is that growth going to come from?

I ask, because I'm pretty sure it's not going to come from the US consumer, and the US consumer was directly responsible for the lion's share of all global growth for the last 20 years.

Where is that growth going to come from?

Without it, it is as inevitable as the sun rising in the east tomorrow morning that this market will tank and probably take out 666. It is simply a matter of time.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:10 | 31959 Handle with care
Handle with care's picture

We're now in a world where the American government borrowing from the Chinese government to subsidise the purchase of Japanese cars is considered one of the most successful government programs.

 

So the real question is, how long can we live in Bizzaro land before people start waking up and falling off the ceiling

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:35 | 31998 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Who says they ever wake up?

Start imagining a world where everyone is asleep, walking. As soon as you do you recognize that those sleep walkers are just wage slaves and Panglosses, eating the media pablum they are given and thanking the gods for their crappy job. It would work forever, save for one thing:

It is a regression to the womb, and someone else with less to lose will come by, find us easy prey, and eat us whole.

cougar

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:48 | 32013 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"So the real question is, how long can we live in Bizzaro land before people start waking up and falling off the ceiling."
Right on.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 18:09 | 32145 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

"how long can we live in Bizzaro land before people start waking up and falling off the ceiling"

This is the major remaining question to be pondered.  No one knows for sure, but people fall off the ceilig when their faith in one of the following abandons them: 1. the monetary system / central banking; 2. the government; 3. the markets. 

As I sit here from my vantage point I can see people making this plunge right now.  It happenes when they lose their job, or their 401(k)s evaporate, or they see their lifestyles falling, or they see their government aggressively grabbing more power to itself and stifling dissent, regardless of which party is in charge.

See you all in DC on 9/12.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 20:52 | 32338 chindit13
chindit13's picture

"American government borrowing from the Chinese government to subsidize the purchase of Japanese cars"

 

Finally a working definition of "globalization", with Walt Disney and It's a Small World After All playing in the background.  Thanks HwC.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 21:42 | 32382 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yes, but remember when Geithner was over pleading with Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao in early June, Obama was rapping with Saudi King Abdullah at almost precisely the same time.

Obama assured Abdullah that Goldman will run crude back to $140 a barrel and in exchange Abdullah will get OPEC leaders to buy US debt.

Geithner was visiting China to steady the tippi canoe. So far it worked. Cash for clunkers takes the clunkers, scraps & shreds them and ships the recycled steel to China.

( Panic in his eyes, relief on Wen Jibao's face ; http://i26.tinypic.com/ablc94.jpg )

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:17 | 31967 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You're assuming the markets are rational, which they clearly are not. A pullback is inevitable but what that entails, who the hell knows.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 22:02 | 32286 nogeithner (not verified)
nogeithner's picture

Valuations at nosebleed levels and the only ones buying are computers that sell less than a second later. Buy and hold takes on a whole new meaning!

good finance news & opinions updated daily ..http://www...

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:08 | 31954 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I don't hear Steinhardt saying "more than that"... in fact as they conclude, either
Cooperman or Steinhardt say "less than that."

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:06 | 32044 Milton
Milton's picture

I was wrong about that quote. You are correct. Steinhardt said "less than that" when answering the question of does anyone think we'll be going back to 666?

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:10 | 32050 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I'm pretty sure it wasn't Steinhardt saying "less than that", it was Cooperman, who had already said he thought the odds were 1 in 4.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:13 | 31962 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Hope someone can reply on this post - What the heck is the deal with AMEX - XAX - today - the volume went nuts - price down on index -Thanx in advance

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:14 | 31964 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

There won't be a long term rally until we reconcile our consumption with our production and equity values reflect it.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:18 | 31968 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I think you are right, but when is that going to happen?  Never?

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:50 | 32017 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

It will not happen, in the sense of something that is deliberate, because there are too many opposing interests. But it *will* emerge on the other side of a societal singularity, an event of such cataclysmic proportions that mere mortals cannot fully encompass the scope of the failure.

Good stuff. After the last singularity we ended up with the industrial revolution, the scientific method, global exploration, and the birth of modern banking. OK, but 3 ouf 4 is still pretty cool.

cougar

Tue, 08/11/2009 - 04:51 | 32599 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The singularity consists of the direct "Peer to Peer" instantaneous connections of the Internet.

I think we are essentially going through a "Phase Transition" to a post-Internet Society 3.0 and instrumental in that is a decentralised, connected, Money 3.0

http://www.slideshare.net/ChrisJCook/money-30

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:22 | 31975 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Who needs a long term rally when the S&P is up 50% in
5 months?

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:22 | 31977 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Valuations at nosebleed levels and the only ones buying are computers that sell less than a second later. Buy and hold takes on a whole new meaning!

But there are not enough sellers right now just everyone going along for the journey until the music stops. Only buyers are those forced to cover their shorts.
Shorts who are trying to show the true fundamental prices but not allowed by computers playing games

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:27 | 31987 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Proof please. I have posted critical items in the past and they stay up. But you have to have REASONS... Not just rants.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:30 | 31992 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

the commenter you refer to has had his privileges exclusively revoked for reasons he is well aware of.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:34 | 31995 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Cool TD - can't have freaks disrespecting ZH. Right or wrong, I have always found this blog very fair. And some crazy smart people commenting on issues.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 21:06 | 32352 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Sorry, free speech is not allowed on bandwidth originating from Sweden.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:35 | 31996 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Lots of good reading on Mike Steinhardt at www.deepcapture.com . Take some time and read the entire report, its worth the time.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 21:08 | 32354 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Can't you just give us the Cliff Notes? I'm too lazy to surf over to your capture.net website.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:38 | 32002 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Vee hahv gazolene all over zee place.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 20:11 | 32308 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Start the reactor. Free Mars...

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:40 | 32005 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I think Steinhardt is eluding to the fact that he thinks it will be lower than the March lows.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:48 | 32014 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

With regard to Steinhardt's comment on valuation, here is what the principals at the Sequoia Fund wrote at the end of their annual letter dated May 22:

"In this environment, we find it very challenging to ascertain normalized earnings power for many companies - both those we own and those that we are considering owning - when we are not sure what "normal" will look like in the future.

We are not alone here. We have met with a number of CEOs of companies which we either own or are considering owning. When we ask them to estimate their companies normalized earnings power, many will volunteer that they do not know. When pressed to give a broad range, oftentimes they cannot, and usually decline to opine.

Valuing companies without knowing their earnings power is like flying into dense fog without instruments. In our many years of investing, we cannot remember a time when visibility was this low and estimating the intrinsic value of businesses was this challenging."

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:01 | 32035 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

"When pressed to give a broad range, oftentimes they cannot, and usually decline to opine." That, from people that think they rule the f*cking world. "Sorry, but I'm just not going to hazard a guess if my company is worth more than the loose change in the lobby sofa."

If I was getting that kind of response every day during dealings, I'd be sitting back on my cash and waiting for TSTHTF.

You don't buy into that kind of spooky market. You don't sell into it either. You fold your hand and walk away from the table until the cards start to look normal and less like a Tarot deck full of evil portents.

cougar

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 18:11 | 32151 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

cougar, that is preceisely what I have done.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 23:41 | 32510 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This reminds me of the scene in Dune where the Guild Navigators cannot see the future past a certain point. A pinpoint nexus too small to give them a glimpse of what lies beyond. I feel we are approaching such a political, social, and economic nexus...rapidly.

P.S. My degree is in History not economics,so take it for what it's worth.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 16:57 | 32028 speculator
speculator's picture

Steinhardt has a very interesting background. His dad, Red Steinhardt, was one of the country's biggest jewelry fences for Meyer Lansky's enterprise. Some say the apple didn't fall far from the tree.

I always find it amusing when he's held up as a great investor. Operator is more like it.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:49 | 32120 Milton
Milton's picture

In December 1928 GS started Goldman Sachs Trading Corp. which many characterize as a Ponzi scheme that ultimately failed. And where did that apple fall?

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:53 | 32127 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

this is interesting....do you have any sources
which develope red's activities? was he ever
apprehended, prosecuted, or convicted? when
did he operated?

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 18:44 | 32164 speculator
speculator's picture

Convicted and imprisoned. Google Sol Steinhardt.

BTW, I'm a huge bear and agree with Steinhardt -- he's a shady character, but a very sharp one.

Tue, 08/11/2009 - 02:24 | 32570 Milton
Milton's picture

Sol went to jail for buying and selling stolen jewelry. Hardly death-row material. Not a secret either. Too bad he didn't learn how to pump and dump, or frontrun, then maybe he could have gotten a so-called legit job on the Street.

As for your shady character Michael Steinhardt, he has given away hundreds of millions to legit charities, including hospitals, museums, and Israel.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 19:57 | 32292 PrDtR
PrDtR's picture

You can call me an "Operator" ANY DAY.. |\-)

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:03 | 32040 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

There is no future growth.  We don't make anything anyone needs to buy, outside of military hardware, and maybe some other knick knacks that are certainly not "consumer goods." That's not a negative, it's just a fact. Even if Ben et al. whups the dollar to a pulp, there's no products manufacture base ready to kick into high gear and generate wealth via exports that would be supercharged by a cheap dollar.  I men, how many mattresses can Sleepy's sell to Mexico? That is the fallacy of this theory floating around that seems to be saying China etc. are supposed to pick up the ball and lift the world economy - problem is the average American will not benefit from this.  We have walked into a trap of our own making, by pinning off into the empire the tools of wealth creation, while imagining that wealth, or a portion of it, could be extracted back into the imperial orbit to fuel consumption indefinitely. Trouble is, extraction as the basis of a national economy does not create middle class jobs. It creates the very rich, and cause the rest to enter debtors' hell as they frantically borrow to keep up their living standard. 

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:15 | 32056 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Stop banging your heads against the wall and just look at the facts? Its is only a mirage brought forth by an injection of 13.5 TRILLION dollars. Simple that's it! We could of had kids at their lemonade stands just hand out bags of cash to THE CRONY BANKSTERS and had the same effect. Nobody has done anything except beat "better then expected" numbers. We are not going to re-invent the wheel so just come to grips with reality? You only got a few months left at best to get your house in order so I would pull your head out of the sand and get with a program. If you haven't killed the prize pig yet the time is now! Enjoy some nice meals and spend time with the family before things get completely out of control. They really blew it this time because their deception has caused a lack of trust with the American Public.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:22 | 32064 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

That first chart kinda reminds me of the mandelbrot set ^_^

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:25 | 32071 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Steinhart....not sure what the debate is on "less than
that". We should have stayed at 666 and maybe we would
have had a chance...GAAP earnings for 2010 might run
$45 tops thanks to index changes and maybe some miraculous
luck. SPX 666 is 15X earnings. God forbid it gets cheap like
every other time in history. That would take us to SPX
450 or lower. How much do you want to pay for low growth/
no growth? Fed induced liquidity ramp hasn't done us any favors.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 17:26 | 32075 Screwball
Screwball's picture

I read the story on DNDN.  I went back to make sure it was the same guy.  Not sure what to believe, but one thing I am sure of - there has been many a criminal bless the set at our favorite dickweed station.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 18:03 | 32092 vf4 (not verified)
vf4's picture

we need more bears Risk as it pertains to ... ? Backstop behind the SLPz? So, conceivably, a "past

ball" (not seen coming, i.e. flashed in a dark pool) thrown in the dirt could get

by the catcher and roll how far (without a backstop)? There is no risk when

Bernanke is the umpire behind the plate.

His message was being spread and gaining even more support...therefore he needed

to be censored.

Until we have guys like Black back as regulators nothing will

change. We just can not compete with the vast amounts of money being used to

influence decisions. The Rich says"

recommended;

href="http://www.iamned.com" target="_blank">my newest bookmarked finance website

http://www...

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 18:02 | 32136 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

i noticed that everyone's tone abruptly changed when the cnbc moderator asked where the market will go....the guy on the right froze up hard and then abruptly changed gear about fair market valuations and steady stock prices.....

so the economy stinks, no one is long term bullish, yet the market will be stable to higher....what a complete crock...

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 19:34 | 32258 Crude Oil Trader
Crude Oil Trader's picture

Notice how they pretty much just blow him off as always being the most bearish. Typical cheerleader activity from CNBC.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 23:14 | 32484 jm
jm's picture

My take is they were a little afraid of him.  He was too direct and razor sharp... an equal balance of menace and thoughtful charm.

Precisely the type you want running a hedge fund.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 21:15 | 32362 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Howbout this: rally won't end till congress pulls back the $800 B that has been funding this manipulation at a 30X velocity / churn rate per day / week

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 23:01 | 32473 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Agreed.  Except that this fake velocity really isn't doing anything except buying things of little or no value.

Tue, 08/11/2009 - 04:26 | 32592 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

At around 2:50 in:

"We may be in the process of changing from an aspirational society in terms of consumerism to a society that's more satisfied with the status quo."

Satisfied? Yeah. Main Street America is so happy to voluntarily give up its dreams, without any resentment of the super rich who continue to live their dreams. There won't be any populist backlash from that.

Tue, 08/11/2009 - 15:06 | 33118 1-2
1-2's picture

From Today's Bianco Research note:

Yesterday there was an interesting exchange between Michael Steinhardt, Leon Cooperman and David Gerstenhaber.  As the blog Zero Hedge said:
Hedge fund icon Mike Steinhardt voices on what the smartest money on Wall Street is thinking and it is nothing good - fast forward to 3 minutes 25 seconds. Steinhardt is completely correct in saying “You can not talk about valuations readily” in this market.

In a nutshell - “Everyone is focusing on the next tick” and the follow up question: “What’s going to drive growth” eventually?

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