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In 2011, Non-farm Payrolls Have To Grow By 121,000 Per Month Just To Keep Up With Population Growth

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Until now, in our Non Farm Payroll growth forecasts, Zero Hedge had been using 90,000 as the number of monthly jobs the US should be creating each month just to keep up with population growth. However, per the CBO budget released in January, it may be time to revise this estimate. As the chart below shows, according to the traditionally optimistic Congressional Budget Office, the US has to create 121,000 jobs per month in 2011 just to keep pace with population growth. This number declines modestly over the next several years, but still averages 106,000 per month over the next 5 years. And the kicker is that this number does not account for the 3 million people who are not currently in the workforce that the CBO defines as Potential Workforce. Assuming the inflow of this portion of the population into the workforce over the next three years, it adds an additional 83,000 people that have to be incorporated in the work force. This means that in 2011, in the "best" case scenario, the monthly NFP number has to be over 200,000 before the unemployment rate is reduced by even one basis point excluding the impact of the BLS' favorite trick of fudging the labor force participation rate, which we have discussed extensively in the past.

h/t John Poehling

 

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Thu, 02/17/2011 - 20:38 | 972478 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

It will all be fudged away - U3 will be 8% by 2012, participation rate will drop, drop, drop

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 20:57 | 972549 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

What isn't fudged has been hedged: Goldman and FRB San Francisco (the most credible sources of econometric research /sarc) both put out pieces this week proclaiming a structural shift in demographics has created a higher rate of natural unemployment.  Translation: unemployment will not fall much, but that says nothing about the quality of the recovery.  So, all is well

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:17 | 972633 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Or stop making people or send them to war.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:31 | 972687 grunk
grunk's picture

Or send them back to the farms. Then they won't count.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 01:33 | 973235 pbmatthews
pbmatthews's picture

Tyler your conclusion is 100% wrong.

The number of jobs saved or created can show a decline of -599,999 each month and the US job picture will still be improving.  Afterall, the labor force is going to fall 600,000 each month until there is no joblessness. 

By my calcuation (assuming 13 million unemployed) that means 21.67 more months which implies zero jobless Americans in October 2012 just in time for the 2012 Presidential election.

Man, I wish I worked at the BLS!!!

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 07:30 | 973487 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

You are 100% correct!!

More american retired early than any other time in histroy due to wealth effect and low inflation!

Even Wall Street journal says "Split Economy Keeps Lid on Prices " So many americans have too much money and no inflation!!

You guys are jsut too negative!!

 

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 20:42 | 972493 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Guess we are having negative population growth - cause last year they all said we needed 250K a month just to keep pace...o well..

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 23:13 | 972988 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

That was probably based upon 300MM population growing at 1% or 3MM a year. 3MM/12 = 250k per month.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 08:11 | 973523 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

At the same time babyboomers will be forced to retire at the rate of 3-3.5 million per year displaced by cheaper workers.

There won't be new jobs in US because manufacturing won't create them (too expensive-taxes,energy,labor,high paid management and consultants,environment), government will cut jobs at least at state level, consumer related industries (retail,travel,hospitality) will contract for known reasons, medicare and drugs will expand because of stupid health&drugs plans (they will dictate prices for some time), financial will stay at the same level for some time before going down the drain with consumers. Agriculture and food will expand for some time before inflation chokes it. Energy ? Maybe, but I think it will stay at the same level. Resources will expand but how many jobs they will create?

I wonder where they see area where jobs will be created, military + manuf. involved in it?

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 20:50 | 972517 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Haha.... the new gubermint term to describe the 3 million unemployed is "potential workforce". Next will be a new definition of what a "job" really is. I think I'll just go wash out my eyes now.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 20:51 | 972521 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

if chair satan has his way, the population "growth" will soon be -100K per months as he starves people to death.  and people thought hitler was bad.  i bet chairsatan executes at least 3x the number of people hitler did.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 20:53 | 972530 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

All part of the Global Elite's plan, they don't need us "useless eaters"

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:26 | 972666 sabra1
sabra1's picture

i heard that the global elites taste like chicken! seriously, how many are there of them? at their old fragile state, we can wipe them out!

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 20:51 | 972522 kornholio
kornholio's picture

what the fuck is wrong with you people, just buy the fucking dip

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 23:07 | 972972 Gary Busey
Gary Busey's picture

What dip?

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 20:54 | 972536 gwar5
gwar5's picture

If 121,000 illegal aliens go home every month for lack of jobs, will that imporve the government statistics?

.

 

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:00 | 972561 Misean
Misean's picture

They don't count as labor, just contributors to Socialist Insecurity...so...this causes the trustless fund to eat an ever bigger whole in the space time continuum every month

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 00:16 | 973089 mynhair
mynhair's picture

+121,000 + 536

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 20:57 | 972550 Misean
Misean's picture

I'm amazed you keep with this whole 20th century thing called work. The SNAP and wealth effect make this whole job growth work thingee a thing of the past. It's different this time in the new normal economy.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:07 | 972586 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Exactly! I think hedonics also plays a role. Like, aren't we better off having folks in other countries work, making us stuff, so that we can have more time doing other things that provide us greater enjoyment? Hell, if it's money we need, we can just print it...

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:11 | 972600 Misean
Misean's picture

Ah...A man after me own heart! I'm working out a proposal to run a small bank of printers for Weimar Ben. I want every 20th bill for myself. I promise to spend them as soon as they're dry.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 00:21 | 973098 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Fuk, I thought life was free.  Just charge it to my neighbor's kid.

Oh, I don't have neighbors with kids, but ODummer has kids!

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:07 | 972576 mynhair
mynhair's picture

but I thought we were up to 251,000 increase to handle illegals?  What happened?

Mexico close the bordeer?  Make me laugh.

Make me laugh harder, and say we did.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:08 | 972588 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

The BLS is very good with the fudge...perhaps they ought to consult the SEC about it.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 23:07 | 972970 TexasAggie
TexasAggie's picture

Only if the BLS has better porn.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:09 | 972592 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Wondered why high speed rail was a priority.

Gotta move those illegals.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 03:54 | 973396 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

High-speed rail faster than:

1. M1A1 tanks, and

2. C130 transports!

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:09 | 972594 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

We don't need no steenking jobs!

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:10 | 972601 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Tell that to Mike Rowe, ya tumor.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 22:11 | 972811 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

You should hire him to shave that nasty pussy.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:12 | 972614 mynhair
mynhair's picture

(Dang, listening to Levin, and I think he finally gets it.)

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:13 | 972618 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Need the Jeetner clip, saying the Odummer budget is unsustainable!

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:18 | 972631 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Shut down the goobermint!

What do they do?

Other than write me checks I can live without for months.

Just don't pay CONgress or ODummer in the meantime.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:19 | 972639 mynhair
mynhair's picture

PATCO the whole lot of them!

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:19 | 972640 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

Hey, the IRS is hiring!   Soon they'll be running "work from home" infomercials.   "Turn in your family, friends, neighbors, co-workers, and employers and you'll receive 1 month free SNAP!"

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 21:21 | 972647 mynhair
mynhair's picture

PATCO those beestards, too!

PATCO THE WHOLE LOT OF THEIR USELESS ASSES!

Funny how it affects me more than you.

GSA building.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 22:02 | 972780 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Population growth?  You mean, wetbacks from the south, chinks from the east and canuuks from the north ?  (  oh noooooooo !!!   )....

 

by the way, texas is 33 percent wetback now. isn't that special?  se hable espanol?

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 22:10 | 972812 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

 

I just love this whole gov't fudging the numbers thing, the worse the economy gets the better my income gets. Don't you love foreclosures?

DaddyO

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 22:26 | 972864 Sutton
Sutton's picture

Sounds like a case for the lowest interest rates ever.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 22:27 | 972872 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

was it 20 million employed that were annihilated?  or only ten?  in order for the "trillion dollar deficit" economy to have any chance those employed must be returned to the work force in full force immediately.  just the potential for the overthrow of The Kingdom and with it the entire world's oil supply potentially annihilated strikes me as "a potential detriment" to this clearly fanciful outcome.  more to the point "just how do you get your food again"?  it ain't on the back of rail car that's for sure.  that's how your food leaves to "points unknown." oh, yeah...and i haven't even mentioned the term "an interest rate" yet have i?

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 22:36 | 972898 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

The "BLS" Bureau of Lying Scoundrels will perform better tricks than Houdini ever did, as they will get the UE rate below 8% in no time..and that quivering pale faced crack head lookalike Bernanke will starve new born babies to keep population growth down!

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 23:30 | 973014 centerline
centerline's picture

Everybody is looking at this wrong.  Jobs don't have to expand to keep up with population growth... the population needs to shrink in accordance with job contraction.  Jeez.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 23:53 | 973048 mynhair
mynhair's picture

BL(S), give me a break.

Nice $ for the scum.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 00:08 | 973055 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Have you noticed how quickly people are becoming de-sensitized? Three years of spooky layoffs and unemployment plus the MSM spin has made it all a big yawn. Jobs get mentioned only half seriously here and there in the media. 

It's all a part of the plan: TARP de-sensitized us to bailouts (and banker fraud). Fed de-sensitized us to the word "Trillion". ECB de-sensitized us to the notion of sovereign defaults and bankrupt nations. And now they're working on de-sensitizing us to "Inflation". Gasoline prices at a record for the month of February? Ywwan. Didn't notice. Food inflation? Get a life. Slim the hell down. 

Here's a perfect example of how they do it: From The Economist: "Learning to Like Inflation: 

Higher inflation could help to rebalance China’s economy

 ". Link

 

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 00:09 | 973073 props2009
props2009's picture

China Gold investment 70% up.

http://dawnwires.com/investment-news/china-bought-70-more-gold-in-2010-massive-jump-in-holding/

 

If this does not take up prices what will......

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 01:10 | 973205 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Don't worry, inflation will cure all-- as long as there is inflation that means someone is paying for the margins for a company to hire right?

One big sick joke that leaves many in poverty.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 04:05 | 973401 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

Another way of phrasing this is:

"Deaths Have To Grow By 121,000 Per Month Just To Keep Up With Population Growth."

No way around it; more jobs and money and food or sooner or later people have to DIE.  Not what I want, just the truth.

 

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 07:47 | 973500 HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

the US needs to invade Iran now

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 08:22 | 973536 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Wow...that is a disastrous report. The US is toast.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 17:41 | 975654 redrob25
redrob25's picture

Population growth will be a good thing fiscally, given our current fubar ponzified system. We will all just to have to adjust standard of living, per person, downward. (Not that I am in the least happy about that, but it is inevitable.)

Employment can be increased by reducing the workweek, which has historical precedence and takes advantage of technological improvements in our culture while maintaining a more even standard of life for more people, elite banker and political assholes notwithstanding.

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