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Moody's Absolutely Does Not Fail to Issue Timely Non-Downgrade Downgrade on United States and United Kingdom Debt
The passage of time, in addition to being subject to dilation through the effects of e.g., relative velocity, also suffers numerous perceptual contortions depending on the observer's particular state of mind. For the purposes of day to day affairs, most humans not at relative velocities to their immediate surroundings that reach a significant fraction of the speed of light, would find these subjective changes normally accounting for the largest perceived deltas in the passage of time ("a watched pot never boils, etc.") Of course, as with most of the laws of nature, the regina scientiarum and, if you believe their analysts, even the laws of thermodynamics, when it comes to the ratings agencies, all bets are off and mere humans unable to shift their perceptions into rates more in line with geologic observations will be doomed to frustration and folly. So it is this morning with Moody's, which has, ever so subtly, maybe warned of what might someday develop into conditions that, in exactly the right environment, could potentially result in a downgrade for the Aaa rated United States and the United Kingdom... maybe sometime around 2013 or so, maybe. (Proving once and for all that Moody's finally fired analysts John Cusack and Amanda Peet). Don't be fooled by the minuteness of their movement on this subject...
Moody's Investors Service says the U.S. and U.K. must prove they can whittle down their ballooning deficits to avoid threats to their triple-A credit ratings.
In a report released on Tuesday, Moody's set the two countries apart from other top-rated sovereign borrowers, calling them merely "resilient" rather than "resistant," a label it applied to Canada, France and Germany, where public finances are in better shape.
...as at the glacial temporal velocities within ratings agency space-time this is blinding speed even if the report's official announcement tries hard to conceal it. To wit:
Among the challenges to major Aaa-rated nations like the US, UK, France, and Germany will be the pace and sustainability of economic growth and future interest rate trends, both of which affect the countries' ability to manage the significant debt burdens they have assumed as a result of the crisis. Still, the rating agency stresses that it does not see an immediate threat to the ratings of any of the 17 nations it currently rates Aaa. (Emphasis added).
Phew. That was close.
After this non-downgrade downgrade, mitigating language or not, Zero Hedge expects a flurry of non-denial denials from the usual cheerleader suspects soon to be piling out of the locker room with miniskirts and pom-poms at the ready for the briefing room cameras. Let's just hope Timmy is wearing spankies today.
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Speaking of people totally screwing up time space coordination.
12/03/2009 - 09:31 Goldman Sachs says revises up its 12-month gold forecast to USD 1,350/OZ from USD 960/OZ previously Goldman is now conceding that they are completely powerless to get gold back under it's 970 support. Let's start an office pool. How long till they concede that 12 months means December 30 2009.these frenzied adjustments to arbitrary SELL-side price tgts are just in time for either:
1) a great short-term top for those who actually trade ... ummm, isn't that what GSCO is allegedly great at ... uuuhhhhledgedly; or
2) a massive cyclic top of 1.5 - 2.5 years back into $760 - $660
honestly: those who buy n hold; great, awesome. and those who actually trade instead of simply opining and guessing which way the wind will blow: check out the Gold, CHARTS. bitches; and quit whining about nonsense like 'charts n TA don't work' simply bc you can't understand them. just cause you don't speak / understand mandarin do you say that mandarin is bogus ? no, surely no one is that egotistical, arrogant and naive, right ? LOL.
and thanks for the piece, Marla.
FWIW: middle management on the Moody's Bond Desk was gutted about 16 months ago now. And ANYONE with a clue left McGraw's Hill for greener pastures out in beautiful Newport / Manhattan Beach at least 14 months ago. Ratings agencies are merely a pathetic pawn; that said, they still do provide much insight to astute anal-ysts as something as a looking glass, sound chamber or, to stretch an already tortured analogue, 2nd/ 3rd derivative of collective sentiment with uber lag and a lotta noise. that said, the actual overshoot of such secondary measures of sentiment itself can be predicted, anticipated and effectively employed as a secondarily / tertiary confirming indicant (though, lagging and entirely coincident) ... much like most sentiment oscillators and sentiment itself.
finally: whether as a trader or as a person, it is my very humble personal opinion that the sooner one breaks free of the arbitrarily oppressive construct of "time" itself the sooner that trader / person will be able to break the mold / plateau and reach the 'next' level. traders thinking in terms of time and missing the 'point' altogether; such is why the very best automated algos almost exclusively employ interval period lengths of tick and volume or simply why the 'best' n 'cleanest' looking charts are on such interval periods as well ... n this doesn't even factor in things such as Fibonacci prime factorials, Lucas #'s, the square root etc. teachings of Gann, the supremely fractal nature of ALL financial markets (all formological (robust + complex) growth systems), and on and on. it's a whole new world once you swallow the pink pill of TA / design development and see the Matrix, both on 'the TICK and the 2-day' for what it truly is ... all fractal with just a slightly different vibratory nuance. as twain said: "history never repeats itself, but it often rhymes." just don't ask benoit, ol mandel hasn't read all the work in the field; or so he claims, hilariously ( what balls to do so ).
You state, "it is my very humble personal opinion".
You come across as anything but humble.
good point, Anon, and agreed; and thanks for taking the time to add a comment of substance to further an actual conversation.
am anything but humble, except when speaking conceptually about a wholly personal lifestyle choice, which, by definition would fall under the purview of 'personal opinion.' mkt related opinion is not so much up for debate when it is technically rigorous, mathematically quantified and continually predictive (accurate & robust). as for statements of a decidedly non-personal nature: yeah, such is my admittedly petulant and utterly impatient style, which i make no apologies for; especially since my calls / opinions / reads are borne out immediately on the hard right edge of my charts and their product lays on the bottom line. i trade well, write poorly and after peak hours today would be more than happy to address / answer any decidedly technical questions of actual substance / merit. mental indian rug burns burn, don't they ? trying to get my last bits of fun in before letting sleeping dogs (misdirected / egged-on angst of retail traders) lay. annoyingly accurate jerk with poor social skills who is an actual trader / technician / design developer / quant, out.
<would be more than happy to address / answer any decidedly technical questions of actual substance / merit>
I'll take you up on that
If yer familiar with IRC it wouldn't take much to make it happen. You represent yourself (quite assertively) as a person of experience and I'd very much like to pick your brain.
arrogant
Ironic.
All fractal indeed. I feel ya on that idea and fractals (along with latin and spacetime) are amongst my favorite things. But the problem with that construct is that it can lead one to overrely on technical analysis. If you're looking at a TICK chart and a 5 yr chart and seeing similar patterns you might miss some of the nuance inbetween. Accounting for time as it is also allows us to consider subjective things such as "what happened" when looking at a particular time on a chart.
I would say the fractal frame of looking at markets is accurate insomuch as Newtonian physics accurately described the natural world. So those automated algos you mention using their interval periods will eventually will be challenged to predict how light will move around a large object in space, likely put all chips down on light moving in a straight line past that object, and be crushed when faced with the fact that light bends around a gravitational field. Y'know, like some 87 crash shit.
Either way, good color on the Moodys staffing. Happy hunting.
"1) a great short-term top for those who actually trade ... ummm, isn't that what GSCO is allegedly great at ... uuuhhhhledgedly; or"
The money changers buy for much less than they sell for and sell for much more than they buy for. Which is why they are going to get frozen, completely solidified, crystalized until they shatter. It's nice to have a vibrating electron in a valence shell. But when everything around it is sick of it's shit. Those vibrations stop working. Twitch the market around like an epilleptic seizuring stripper and see what it gets ya.
Marla Singer
-ph
There's a difference between being witty and interesting, and pretentious and dull.
Marla enjoys flexing her muscle on both sides of the fence.
Thanks Marla. Using the metaphor of space/time, relativity and the laws of physics in general is useful in understanding why financial economics when applied by homo sapiens sapiens becomes a dismal science.
Collectively, when considering the abstractions of finance, we will never be able to separate our primitive brain from our analytical brain, so our primitive brain becomes an obstacle to reasoning and evaluating.
Choice:
They fudged. End of story.
Or am I missing something?
Moody's puts USA on credit watch. In other words, Moody's says don't fcuk with us!
When the King realizes that he has no clothes, he implements a simple solution. He outlaws clothes. Now all of you subjects, STRIP!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1sf2CzEq0w
Well, Marla, at least you're original. You make sidelong analogies to special relativity where almost everyone else would choose Heisenberg uncertainty as their default obfuscatory physics reference.
Deep Shah.
YYeeeaaaahh!
I got a feeling that Moody's will downgrade American debt 1 month after an official default or a massive hyper-inflation spike...maybe two months, they might be busy over three.
I love Zero Hedge... The fact that I am smiling and filled with the spirit of joy, because The Truth is not a choice, the reality defined in this article does not justify a prolonged state of jubilation. Just a moment ...just a moment ..ah yes, now I'm angry again. Yep, I'll just stand fast and not buy sell or trade, or provide labor all day again, and I will continue to witness the erection of demand destruction as the shadow increases, as I am not moved by the masonic meathead maneuver of debt, the laying of the cornerstone of corruption for a tomb defining the shortest day for the life of all morons. Ah, the eclipse of the super massive black hole, what an event horizon the Truth offers.
Daisy Daisy give me your answer do...
Heavy stuff Marla. Extremely well written and thought provoking. Thank you!
moody et al have the David Einhorns of the world on their ass
they need to temporarily pretend that they're not the pawns of the power class
ratings agencies couldn't print toilet paper that was worth a damn
When Moody's divides Aaa into 2 quality buckets labeled "resistant" and "resilient", it really means they just downgraded the debt of the U.S. and U.K. in code.
Marla ist die Königin der Wissenschaften. Nicht Mathematik.
I uncloak
Thanks to all who make this such a fascinating place
Einsteins time dilation
Heisenburgs uncertainty
Lets add Schrodinger: observation determines outcome
Marla you cracked me up with this one, thanks for the great post