• Reggie Middleton
    03/22/2010 - 05:24
    I am of the belief that Prepaid Legal, a publicly traded company, is actually running a pyramid scheme and a ponzi scheme (potentially illegal, but arguably legal due to the current laws of the land). They are also employing a self-destructive [pyramid] business model and instead of revamping that model and reinvesting heavily in marketing, they spend money on [ponzi] share buybacks to enrich management who are compensated in stock that is sold directly into the share buyback scheme. This is the opportunity to for the SEC to prove that it is not just the Shellgame Enablement Commission (SEC).
  • madhedgefundtrader
    03/21/2010 - 23:53
    A meltdown of Biblical proportions hits the vacation home market. A market plagued by giant snow drifts and burst pipes. Cash out refi’s have come back to haunt. Sales on the county court house steps at prices down 60%-70% from the 2006 peak. Jumbo financing is now an extinct species. A shortened school year has killed the rental market. A “bear” market of a different sort. Care to join Fredo Corleone?

Moody's Absolutely Does Not Fail to Issue Timely Non-Downgrade Downgrade on United States and United Kingdom Debt

Marla Singer's picture




The passage of time, in addition to being subject to dilation through the effects of e.g., relative velocity, also suffers numerous perceptual contortions depending on the observer's particular state of mind. For the purposes of day to day affairs, most humans not at relative velocities to their immediate surroundings that reach a significant fraction of the speed of light, would find these subjective changes normally accounting for the largest perceived deltas in the passage of time ("a watched pot never boils, etc.") Of course, as with most of the laws of nature, the regina scientiarum and, if you believe their analysts, even the laws of thermodynamics, when it comes to the ratings agencies, all bets are off and mere humans unable to shift their perceptions into rates more in line with geologic observations will be doomed to frustration and folly. So it is this morning with Moody's, which has, ever so subtly, maybe warned of what might someday develop into conditions that, in exactly the right environment, could potentially result in a downgrade for the Aaa rated United States and the United Kingdom... maybe sometime around 2013 or so, maybe.  (Proving once and for all that Moody's finally fired analysts John Cusack and Amanda Peet).  Don't be fooled by the minuteness of their movement on this subject...

Moody's Investors Service says the U.S. and U.K. must prove they can whittle down their ballooning deficits to avoid threats to their triple-A credit ratings.

 

In a report released on Tuesday, Moody's set the two countries apart from other top-rated sovereign borrowers, calling them merely "resilient" rather than "resistant," a label it applied to Canada, France and Germany, where public finances are in better shape.

...as at the glacial temporal velocities within ratings agency space-time this is blinding speed even if the report's official announcement tries hard to conceal it.  To wit:

Among the challenges to major Aaa-rated nations like the US, UK, France, and Germany will be the pace and sustainability of economic growth and future interest rate trends, both of which affect the countries' ability to manage the significant debt burdens they have assumed as a result of the crisis. Still, the rating agency stresses that it does not see an immediate threat to the ratings of any of the 17 nations it currently rates Aaa.  (Emphasis added).

Phew.  That was close.

After this non-downgrade downgrade, mitigating language or not, Zero Hedge expects a flurry of non-denial denials from the usual cheerleader suspects soon to be piling out of the locker room with miniskirts and pom-poms at the ready for the briefing room cameras.  Let's just hope Timmy is wearing spankies today.

4.857145
Your rating: None Average: 4.9 (7 votes)



by Hephasteus
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 04:29
#156302

Speaking of people totally screwing up time space coordination.

12/03/2009 - 09:31 Goldman Sachs says revises up its 12-month gold forecast to USD 1,350/OZ from USD 960/OZ previouslyGoldman is now conceding that they are completely powerless to get gold back under it's 970 support.Let's start an office pool. How long till they concede that 12 months means December 30 2009.

by Chopshop
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 06:21
#156316

these frenzied adjustments to arbitrary SELL-side price tgts are just in time for either:

1) a great short-term top for those who actually trade ... ummm, isn't that what GSCO is allegedly great at ... uuuhhhhledgedly; or

2) a massive cyclic top of 1.5 - 2.5 years back into $760 - $660

honestly: those who buy n hold; great, awesome.  and those who actually trade instead of simply opining and guessing which way the wind will blow: check out the Gold, CHARTS. bitches; and quit whining about nonsense like 'charts n TA don't work' simply bc you can't understand them.  just cause you don't speak / understand mandarin do you say that mandarin is bogus ?  no, surely no one is that egotistical, arrogant and naive, right ?  LOL. 

 

and thanks for the piece, Marla

FWIW: middle management on the Moody's Bond Desk was gutted about 16 months ago now. And ANYONE with a clue left McGraw's Hill for greener pastures out in beautiful Newport / Manhattan Beach at least 14 months ago.  Ratings agencies are merely a pathetic pawn; that said, they still do provide much insight to astute anal-ysts as something as a looking glass, sound chamber or, to stretch an already tortured analogue, 2nd/ 3rd derivative of collective sentiment with uber lag and a lotta noise.  that said, the actual overshoot of such secondary measures of sentiment itself can be predicted, anticipated and effectively employed as a secondarily / tertiary confirming indicant (though, lagging and entirely coincident) ... much like most sentiment oscillators and sentiment itself.

finally: whether as a trader or as a person, it is my very humble personal opinion that the sooner one breaks free of the arbitrarily oppressive construct of "time" itself the sooner that trader / person will be able to break the mold / plateau and reach the 'next' level.  traders thinking in terms of time and missing the 'point' altogether; such is why the very best automated algos almost exclusively employ interval period lengths of tick and volume or simply why the 'best' n 'cleanest' looking charts are on such interval periods as well ... n this doesn't even factor in things such as Fibonacci prime factorials, Lucas #'s, the square root etc. teachings of Gann, the supremely fractal nature of ALL financial markets (all formological (robust + complex) growth systems), and on and on. it's a whole new world once you swallow the pink pill of TA / design development and see the Matrix, both on 'the TICK and the 2-day' for what it truly is ... all fractal with just a slightly different vibratory nuance. as twain said: "history never repeats itself, but it often rhymes."  just don't ask benoit, ol mandel hasn't read all the work in the field; or so he claims, hilariously ( what balls to do so ).

by Anonymous
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 07:06
#156326

You state, "it is my very humble personal opinion".

You come across as anything but humble.

by Chopshop
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 07:47
#156337

good point, Anon, and agreed; and thanks for taking the time to add a comment of substance to further an actual conversation.

am anything but humble, except when speaking conceptually about a wholly personal lifestyle choice, which, by definition would fall under the purview of 'personal opinion.'  mkt related opinion is not so much up for debate when it is technically rigorous, mathematically quantified and continually predictive (accurate & robust).  as for statements of a decidedly non-personal nature: yeah, such is my admittedly petulant and utterly impatient style, which i make no apologies for; especially since my calls / opinions / reads are borne out immediately on the hard right edge of my charts and their product lays on the bottom line.  i trade well, write poorly and after peak hours today would be more than happy to address / answer any decidedly technical questions of actual substance / merit.  mental indian rug burns burn, don't they ?  trying to get my last bits of fun in before letting sleeping dogs (misdirected / egged-on angst of retail traders) lay.  annoyingly accurate jerk with poor social skills who is an actual trader / technician / design developer / quant, out.

by Steak
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 10:07
#156412

<would be more than happy to address / answer any decidedly technical questions of actual substance / merit>

I'll take you up on that

If yer familiar with IRC it wouldn't take much to make it happen.  You represent yourself (quite assertively) as a person of experience and I'd very much like to pick your brain.

by successful_trader
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 09:55
#156463

arrogant

by spekulatn
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 11:38
#156598

Ironic.

by Steak
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 07:52
#156342

All fractal indeed.  I feel ya on that idea and fractals (along with latin and spacetime) are amongst my favorite things.  But the problem with that construct is that it can lead one to overrely on technical analysis.  If you're looking at a TICK chart and a 5 yr chart and seeing similar patterns you might miss some of the nuance inbetween.  Accounting for time as it is also allows us to consider subjective things such as "what happened" when looking at a particular time on a chart. 

I would say the fractal frame of looking at markets is accurate insomuch as Newtonian physics accurately described the natural world.  So those automated algos you mention using their interval periods will eventually will be challenged to predict how light will move around a large object in space, likely put all chips down on light moving in a straight line past that object, and be crushed when faced with the fact that light bends around a gravitational field.  Y'know, like some 87 crash shit.

Either way, good color on the Moodys staffing.  Happy hunting.

by Hephasteus
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 13:25
#156715

"1) a great short-term top for those who actually trade ... ummm, isn't that what GSCO is allegedly great at ... uuuhhhhledgedly; or"

The money changers buy for much less than they sell for and sell for much more than they buy for. Which is why they are going to get frozen, completely solidified, crystalized until they shatter. It's nice to have a vibrating electron in a valence shell. But when everything around it is sick of it's shit. Those vibrations stop working. Twitch the market around like an epilleptic seizuring stripper and see what it gets ya.

by Anonymous
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 04:54
#156307

Marla Singer

-ph

by Anonymous
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 04:56
#156308

There's a difference between being witty and interesting, and pretentious and dull.

Marla enjoys flexing her muscle on both sides of the fence.

by m.g. turner
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 05:31
#156311

Thanks Marla. Using the metaphor of space/time, relativity and the laws of physics in general is useful in understanding why financial economics when applied by homo sapiens sapiens becomes a dismal science.

Collectively, when considering the abstractions of finance, we will never be able to separate our primitive brain from our analytical brain, so our primitive brain becomes an obstacle to reasoning and evaluating. 

by Anton LaVey
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 05:39
#156312

Choice:

  1. Downgrade certain AAA-rated countries (=UKUSA) and watch global finance implode (and probably take Moody's down with it).
  2. Fudge, with generous amounts of truthiness and weaseling.

They fudged. End of story.

Or am I missing something?

by Careless Whisper
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 06:24
#156318

Moody's puts USA on credit watch. In other words, Moody's says don't fcuk with us!

 

by LoneStarHog
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 07:29
#156331

When the King realizes that he has no clothes, he implements a simple solution.  He outlaws clothes.  Now all of you subjects, STRIP!

by SWRichmond
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 07:54
#156343

by FischerBlack
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 08:09
#156349

Well, Marla, at least you're original. You make sidelong analogies to special relativity where almost everyone else would choose Heisenberg uncertainty as their default obfuscatory physics reference.

 

 

by bugs_
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 08:21
#156358

Deep Shah.

by TumblingDice
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 08:46
#156363

Yea we see this "deficit" and "debt" bullshit all you dogs are barking about but its fucking OKAY, alright? They'll pay your pieces of paper back with their pieces of paper because, you see, they've got this magical device knows as a FUCKING PRINTER. As long as they have a printer, they're triple-A. No printer, no triple-a. Now spot pestering us, we have to get back to attaching arbitrary letters to arbitrary pieces of paper with arbitary numbers that people think are important.

by Arthor Bearing
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 11:25
#156584

YYeeeaaaahh!

by Shameful
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 08:39
#156378

I got a feeling that Moody's will downgrade American debt 1 month after an official default or a massive hyper-inflation spike...maybe two months, they might be busy over three.

by Anonymous
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 08:48
#156391

I love Zero Hedge... The fact that I am smiling and filled with the spirit of joy, because The Truth is not a choice, the reality defined in this article does not justify a prolonged state of jubilation. Just a moment ...just a moment ..ah yes, now I'm angry again. Yep, I'll just stand fast and not buy sell or trade, or provide labor all day again, and I will continue to witness the erection of demand destruction as the shadow increases, as I am not moved by the masonic meathead maneuver of debt, the laying of the cornerstone of corruption for a tomb defining the shortest day for the life of all morons. Ah, the eclipse of the super massive black hole, what an event horizon the Truth offers.

Daisy Daisy give me your answer do...

by deadhead
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 08:55
#156398

Heavy stuff Marla.  Extremely well written and thought provoking. Thank you!

by FLETCH
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 08:59
#156400

moody et al have the David Einhorns of the world on their ass

they need to temporarily pretend that they're not the pawns of the power class

ratings agencies couldn't print toilet paper that was worth a damn

 

by Green Sharts
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 09:44
#156450

When Moody's divides Aaa into 2 quality buckets labeled "resistant" and "resilient", it really means they just downgraded the debt of the U.S. and U.K. in code.

by minimoose
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 10:46
#156538

Marla ist die Königin der Wissenschaften. Nicht Mathematik.

by polka.bikini
on Tue, 12/08/2009 - 11:41
#156602

I uncloak

Thanks to all who make this such a fascinating place

Einsteins time dilation

Heisenburgs uncertainty

Lets add Schrodinger: observation determines outcome

Marla you cracked me up with this one, thanks for the great post

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.