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Moody's Announces Multi-Notch Downgrade Of Greece Imminent, Sarah Carlson Proves She Is In An "Analytic" Class Of Her Own
Moody's analyst Sarah Carlson, who by no means is a disgrace to her job, and is fully justified in keeping an A- rating on a country whose 2 Year debt was trading north of 20% until yesterday, when Europe decided to use US tapxayer money to bail out its own, finally finished the special olympics marathon (no pun intended), only a couple of years late. We wonder if any of the Moody's analyst corps will be offered as a (not so virgin) sacrifice to placate the angry gods of Berkshirehathawaya. We hear Buffett has a soft spot for the XX (chromosomes), even if it derives from companies in which he has already decided to liquidate his entire stock position (but slowly... slowly... don't forget uncle Warren is just the nicest guy in the world and would never take advantage of the market's stupidity).
London, 29 April 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service has today announced that it expects to
complete its review of Greece's A3 sovereign bond rating shortly
after the details of the euro area/IMF programme are unveiled.
Moody's has consistently maintained that Greece's short-term
liquidity and restructuring risks are negligible given the depth of international
commitment to maintaining regional financial stability. Moody's
believes that the appropriate repositioning of Greece's rating should
therefore be based on the country's medium-term credit fundamentals.
Moody's has previously indicated that a multi-notch downgrade
is likely, and that the specific magnitude of the downgrade will
depend on the level of ambition of the multi-year economic and
fiscal programme; the likelihood that Greece adheres to it consistently;
and the levels at which debt will stabilise/reverse (as compared to peers).
The details of the euro area/IMF package will provide crucial credit information
covering: economic and fiscal assumptions; mechanisms of support
for the banking system; adjustment measures to be implemented over
several years under the programme; and the total amount of financing,
which will determine how long the Greek government will be sheltered from
hostile market conditions.
Based on the balance between the size and content of the package,
Moody's will assess (1) whether public debt metrics can be stabilised
credibly through a fiscal effort that is both decisive and not socially
disruptive to the extent of rendering it unachievable, and (2) at
what level stabilisation will take place. The very high projected
level of public debt in Greece is neither unsustainable nor unbearable.
The service of the debt consumes approximately 14% of government
revenues, compared with 20%-30% in the 1990s.
However, stabilising the debt will require a tightening of the primary
balance by approximately 12% of GDP in the coming years,
which will require considerable commitment and sacrifice by the Greek
government and population.
Should, however, the mobilisation of external support continue
to be fractious and/or should the Greek government and people fail to
fully deliver on and acquiesce to ambitious policy adjustments,
Moody's indicates that this would inflict significant damage to
Greece's creditworthiness.
Moody's previous rating action with respect to the government of Greece
was implemented on 22 April 2010, when its long-term debt
ratings were downgraded to A3 from A2 and placed on review for possible
further downgrade. The government's P-1 short-term
rating was also placed on review for possible downgrade.
The principal methodology used in rating the government of Greece is Moody's
Sovereign Bond Methodology, published in September 2008, which
can be found at www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies
sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other
methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process
of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory
on Moody's website.
London
Sarah Carlson
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
London
Pierre Cailleteau
Managing Director
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
»
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That's some solid research. At least we didn't have to pay for that analysis.
Heh...mobilisation...
I can do better: Gee, 120 billion euro. Thanks. Party on!
In other words, she will punt until the real riots begin and the streets of Athens are drenched in blood.
Or maybe "drenched in blood" is actually positive for the outlook. This sort of analysis isn't easy you know, if it was then everyone would be doing it.
It takes a special type of fiction (fantasy?) writer to walk that fine line between if you suspend disbelief believable and throw the book out the window garbage. You decide which side of the line this fiction writer.......er.....Moody's analyst is walking.
Hey CD, I printed out some of your posts from the contributor section and read them today. Good work. I hope more is to come.
+ A lot
As Roy Bland says in "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, "
"An artist is a bloke who can hold two fundamentally opposing views and still function".
I'm lowering Greece's ratings to AB+, outlook O negative.
LOL
In that case, their blood is worth more than their paper. Now where is that funnel?
LMAO!!!
So let me make sure I understand: The rating is based on the certainty of a bailout?
LOL
Exactly. You are as good as your daddy's money :-) In this case your parents are Germany and the Good ol Us of A.
" review of Greece's A3 sovereign bond rating shortly after the details of the euro area/IMF programme are unveiled"
The details have already been given out. Is she referring to the previous jawboning, the new and improved jawboning or to jawboning that hasn't been announced yet?
Why should we believe Germany isn't bluffing again? If they didn't like the 30B euro bailout why are they going to like the 120B euro bailout? Makes no sense that a vote would pass in Germany to pass a bigger bailout with elections pending and Germany in position to benefit from a lower euro.
If Moody's downgrades will that be the last straw or does Fitch have to downgrade also for Greek crap to be unacceptable collateral?
The EU is simply kicking the can down the road while conditioning the German voters to eventually accept a bailout. Walk the number to infinity, then back it down to 90B and everyone will be happy, after the German elections are over.
They're stealing the late night TV hucksters line. "Now, similar bailouts would normally go for 250B but if you close in the next 72 hours, I'll give you this bailout not for 250B, not 200B, not even 150B but only 120B if you close right now."
Get ready for a few more weeks of this, then Portugal and Spain are up.
On the ECB front, nothing very much is now scheduled to happen until and unless the last rating agency drops Greece below BBB-. Even then, it's likely the only thing that will happen is that Trichet takes another mouthful of crow.
MOMO still need to save some bullets to gun Cali and the 48 somewhat states ... it's like a buffett to basis traders
LOL
Who says a systemic economic collapse can't be profitable? Ya just gotta know the right people and sell your soul. Same ole same old.
Over the past 200-years, Greece has never re-paid a loan with actual accumulated capital. All loan re-payments have been from the proceeds of new loans. A great history that assure another default in the near future.
So they actually have a long and consistent credit history. Sounds like a good credit risk to me.
Admirable, outstanding, classic junk bond issuer profile.
Roll, roll, roll your debt toilet paper machine.....
Deep Shah.
Greece has agreed the outline of a €24bn austerity package, including a three-year wage freeze for public sector workers, in return for a multibillion-euro loan from the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund, according to people familiar with the talks.
So if they've already agreed to the package, what is she waiting for? Regardless, it won't make a difference what Moody's rates at this point. It's like downgrading a company that missed earnings by a mile - way too long after the fact.
A week ago you could have cared less about Greece.
only thing he cares about is to go counter point anything and everything here whether his argument makes any sense to himself or not; a troll
I still don't care in the sense that it will affect our markets, I'm just wondering why the wait when they've already accepted the austerity plan. To which I ask, are they seriously thinking they can implement this? Good luck!
Greece has agreed to it?
As in Greece who?
To what do we ascribe this a personification of Greece?
The Greek populace has met in the town square and blessed the proposition, greeting such with the panache and endearmentof the returning remains of the 300 from Thermopylae?
The Delphian Oracle has spoken?
There is no Personified Greece, merely the Power Elite on one hand trying desperately to remain in control for power, money and prestige.
Whilst those carrying the societal burden respond with Violence in the Streets
Greece has Agreed to What?
The demise of the Euro?
Disintegration of the EU?
Nobody has agreed to other than Images and Illusions.
you are abs right !!!
first wl get kicked out all tht bastards incl IMF fuckers and
then talk.
How comes the flags?
That is way too long after the facts.
The whole trick looks like an commercial.
They are the first to downgrade Greece that hard, trust them in the future. They wont deliver a grounded assessment before the fact happens but they will be first on writing the facts on their books.
Commercial strategy, nothing more.
Isn't this the same as someone rating crap? "Oh, but this crap has a much better consistancy than that crap over there. And this crap is BB- crap, because, you see, there's a peanut stuck in it."
like mr. hanky's kid, greece is the retarded piece of shit with a peanut stuck in his head.
Another dip buy at open tomorrow or perhaps /ES on the Goldman news, that's not really news but information from "anonymous sources". Here we go again.
Wow, I sure can't wait to trade real money tomorrow using "information" from "anonymous sources" passed along from a random "a-hole" on the "Internet."
What the hell kind of place do you think this is, Harry?
Does this look like an investment club for high school dropouts to you, or a Jim Cramer fan club?
he must be a masochist. harry, got any good consumer staple tips? just kidding, go away. your bretheren on the street.com miss u
Am I living in a different world to the stock market? I must be in an alien inverse universe.
Here slates are slates, there they are slabs of gold.
Here fundamentals are fundamentals, there, they are anti-fundamentals
Here the rocks are rocks, there they are diamonds
She actually put two opposing thoughts in the "research".
Well, which is it? Is there international harmony or a fractious divide? These are things one writes when one wants weasel room later.
Bingo. I noticed that nonsense as well.
A=A people.
Until we all agree on that , the details won't matter.
.. "And in related news, Moody's analyst Sarah Carlson is very close to issuing a review of her AAA rating on multiple subprime mortgages still held by the FED. My sources tell me that outlook is probably better than expected."
Breaking news by CNBC analyst Stevy 'Lies'man
sarah, you ignorant slut....if you keep writing tripe as you have people are going to confuse you with sarah palin....and i am sure the analogy is apt...more cravenous vacuous twaddle couldn't be written by a 2 year old. i hope you are tossed unmercilessly outside the top floor of your pagan post modern office tower and splatter all over the pavement like the blood stain that you are....
To lighten up the mood a bit, I dug up a rather humorous post from the Marketwatch boards:
bondtrader 437 days ago +4 Votes (5 Up / 1 Dn)Request sent You do not have a clue about the Greek economy. Greece maybe in debt but they have the same amount of debt for the last two centuries. The economy is very diversified and not concentrated only in real estate and banks like the Irish.
Greece has manufacturing and agriculture, has a huge public sector so people do not get fired during a recession and the retail and service sector is very strong. Greece is also a super power in commercial shipping and their business have diversified across the Balkans and Turkey. Add to that tourism with millions of people coming to Greece every year. Plus since it is the richest country within this region has low labor costs due to many immigrants that come in and out. Having said all this it doesn't mean that they do not have problems. But unless their government runs a Ponzi scheme and reports wrong numbers I cannot see how Greece will default. I have studied the Greek economy in details (official numbers of course) and I think you probably do not know a lot about it if anything. You can contact me if you need more information. I would be happy to help you make good investing decisions. Actually I agree with Blackrock. Right now the sovereign debt of Greece which is yielding 3% for a ten year note above the German note is the best fixed investment in Europe. Link Report Abuse
Classic. You have to love the time travel capability of the internet.
"Yea - this new ship can take anything you throw at it! This is the safest ship by far ever built."
The Titanic Captain before setting sail :-)
harry wanger = bondtrader?
Account not found, or am I not clicking hard enough?
Sarah Carlson is an idiot!
Previously mentioned EURO buying support has returned...
MARKET UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
A very interesting article from the point of view of a UK expat after 20 years in Greece. Gives a better feel for what it is like on the ground.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=503560&in_page_id=2
Conclusion. ZH spot on! - Greek tragedy in progress...