Moody's Butchers Cramer's "All Good In Dubai" Call, Prepares To Nuke Government Related Issues
On one hand you have Jim Cramer, saying "As painful as it might seem to those who wanted to use Dubai as still one more pillar to the bear edifice, the story just doesn't have legs. It was sexy -- Middle Eastern bubble blown up. It has global intrigue. Will the UAE bail them out? Will fundamentalist politics play a role? The sizzle, though, didn't have a lot of steak to it. Another borrower blows up; yawn. Another bad loan by RBS; those guys should have been nationalized. Another black hole that Citigroup walked into. But that's about it. "
On the other hand you have Moody's set to destroy Dubai's rating, even as Nakheel bonds take out all time bottoms, and as Dubai CDS surging once again to 605bps, 58 wider from yesterday. Just released note from Moody's pointing out it is about to kneecap Dubai government-related issuers.
DIFC, December 09, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has placed the ratings of government-related issuers (GRIs) in the UAE on review for possible downgrade. This includes all GRI's that are owned by either the federal UAE government, or the government of Abu Dhabi. The review was prompted by a need to re-validate, and possibly reconsider our support assumptions following Dubai's recent decision to explicitly segregate its direct obligations from those of its GRIs, following which a decision was subsequently made to pursue a debt restructuring at Dubai World.
The ratings under review currently benefit from very high implicit government support assumptions and assume that even in most potential stress scenarios the government will not make a distinction between servicing its direct obligations and those of its state-owned companies.
Issuers whose ratings were placed on review for downgrade include the following:
- Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) issuer and debt ratings: Aa2 / on review for downgrade. The Prime-1 short term ratings were affirmed.
- Mubadala Development Company (Mubadala) issuer and debt ratings: Aa2 / on review for downgrade. The Prime-1 short term ratings were affirmed.
- Tourism Development & Investment Company (TDIC) issuer and debt ratings: Aa2 / on review for downgrade
- International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC) issuer and debt ratings: Aa2 / on review for downgrade. The Prime-1 short term ratings were affirmed.
- Emirates Telecommunications Company (Etisalat) issuer ratings: Aa2 / on review for downgrade
- Dolphin Energy (Dolphin) long term debt rating: Aa3 / on review for downgrade
- Aldar Properties (Aldar) issuer and debt ratings: A3 / on review for downgrade
As part of the review process, we will continue to engage in discussions with the respective government officials and issuers regarding their policies and positions on each of the issuers to assess whether these ratings continue to be positioned appropriately. Assuming that we conclude that support assumptions should remain high, we would only expect moderate adjustments to ratings, though it could be multi-notch in particular where baseline credit assessments are low. Moody's will also be publishing a Special Comment in the coming days outlining the criteria we are applying in determining the support assumptions as part of the review and to provide broader guidance to the market on the key areas of focus. We expect to conclude the review over the next three months.
Moody's last rating actions on each of the names placed under review was on 17 October 2007 (TAQA, assignment of provisional guaranteed bond ratings), 27 April 2009 (Mubadala, assignment of bond ratings), 1 October 2009 (TDIC, assignment of bond ratings), 27 April 2009 (IPIC, initial rating assignment), 22 July 2008 (Etisalat, initial rating assignment), 29 July 2009 (Dolphin, assignment of bond and bank debt ratings), and 19 May 2009 (Aldar, assignment of bond ratings).
In the battle of the two worst predictors of anything, the question who ends up right may have well become moot.
(2 votes)
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on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 11:35
#157928
But then again, as far as lunatics go JC is one of the smartest.
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 13:14
#158050
And our legislators are honest, too???
GOP Makes Deal w/Banksters to Thwart Regulatory Reform
The implication seems fairly clear: banks were being warned that if they negotiated with Durbin on cram-down, they were risking GOP support on regulatory reform. That the banking industry would take such a stance isn’t entirely surprising, when one considers the narrow financial interests that influence theindustry. But the willingness of the GOP leadership to, apparently, use regulatory reform as a cudgel to pressure banks is illuminating of the horse-trading process that occurs behind the legislative curtains.At the very least, it shows just how stacked the deck is against passing consumer-oriented reforms.
http://tinyurl.com/yzddor2
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 11:39
#157932
I wish we had one of them "Doomsday machines".
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 11:46
#157940
Its actually not Cramer's bullish call. He's just the garbageman for Goldman... when they want to dump he screams buy buy buy. I think Goldman would call it "risk transfer" or "risk aversion". Skeptics might call it pump and dump. Did we forget his call on CIT already?
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 13:00
#158026
Yup that has been Cramjammers modus operandi for a long long time.
Makes you wonder what the quid pro quo is my guess is they let him front run some trades.
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 15:31
#158222
Cramer maybe The Village Idiot... but he is OUR Village Idiot.
And as aint no points out, maybe Goldman's Idiot also. Does that also make him a solid contrary indicator?
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 11:45
#157943
Dear Dubai:
All your Sharia-compliant base are belong to us.
Love,
Western Banks
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 11:46
#157944
Didn't the equity markets initially rise in the weeks after Lehman collapsed?
Just saying.
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 11:59
#157963
Moody's should merge with Cramer. Call it Crudey's.
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 12:03
#157968
Could Moody's just butcher Cramer?
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 13:07
#158035
Just released from Moody's
Ratings placed on review for downgrade:
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 14:14
#158141
Dear Mr. Creamer,
Somebody set us up the bomb.
Regards,
Comcast BoD
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 14:27
#158152
Crammer is and always will be the Worlds Best contraian...When he says buy i sell when he says sell i buy and I have become very rich. I say leave him be for he is making me boat loads of money!! You just have to see him for what he is. A person can always find worth in anything. They sell Manure as fertilzer and make money doing it. I am doing the same taking manure and getting rich.
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 14:32
#158157
What is Cramer ?
This guy has been so wrong so often....
Dies his cousin supervise the program ?
Cramer is a stellar example of why sheeple are sheeple.
Any fool stupid enough to listen to this "whatever it is" deserves what they get....
An inevitable big money loss....
Go home Cramer...
Just Go Home....
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 15:09
#158195
Jesus Christ, why are Moody's so behind the curve, get on and downgrade the fuckers already.
YOU CAN"T SEIZE ASSETS FROM THE ROYAL FAMILY, THEY OWN THE LAND, THE BUILDINGS ON TOP ARE EMPTY AND WORTHLESS RELATIVE TO LIABILITIES. SOME OF THOSE ARE EVEN GOING TO FALL BACK INTO THE SEA BEFORE ANYONE WANTS TO BUY THEM UNLESS 1000 SLAVE WORKERS DO THE MAINTENANCE.
But nah, that should still be Aa2 for a bit longer....
on Thu, 12/10/2009 - 01:11
#158690
"UNLESS 1000 SLAVE WORKERS DO THE MAINTENANCE."
+1000
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 15:32
#158223
Who gives a fuck about Moody's (not that I give a fuck about Cramer either)?
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 16:16
#158265
I've been waiting for someone to say this. What's all the hand-wringing about?
Dancing around the issue doesn't change the complexion of the problem.
Thanks for the direct analysis Gordon.
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 15:46
#158238
how is moody's comment in any way inconsistent with what jimbo is saying? seems to me zeroedge is fialing reading comprehension
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 15:57
#158250
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGKh4pTCDcg
"That all sounds pretty glamorous, but it's business as usual at Kramerica..."
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 16:29
#158269
Hey guys... good news.
One of Nakeel's execs told UAE's National:
The Palm Jumeirah is not sinking into the sea, contrary to speculation in recent days, a Nakheel executive says. “The proof is in the pudding,” said Shaun Lenehan, the head of Nakheel’s environment department. “The Palm is intact. If there were subsidence, you would see cracks in the buildings, windows popping out. We have no evidence of that happening.”
There were reports earlier this year of villas showing structural defects - cracks in walls
He was responding to claims from a landscape surveyor speaking at a conference in Qatar, who was quoted as saying that the Palm Jumeirah was sinking by an average of 5mm a year and might flood in the future if ocean levels rose.
The engineer cited satellite images of the island taken periodically over the past few years. Fugro NPA, the satellite mapping company where the surveyor works, yesterday said its findings were taken out of context and that the island was going through a natural process. “Settlement is a normal occurrence following construction,” the company said.
“No conclusion can be drawn about the long term. “The point displacements measured at Palm Island in the first few years following construction [less than 1cm per year] are well within the expected natural settlement range for such a large structure and such settlement would be factored into the engineering design of the island.”
So there you have it: the island is sinking, but only in line with expectations.
LOL!
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/12/09/88026/the-palm-is-not-sinking...
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091208-706067.html
http://www.despair.com/marketing.html
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 17:28
#158329
Moody's is putting pressure on Dubai to support "Guarantee" its GRI's. Including Abu Dhabi based companies to put pressure on Abu Dhabi to support "Guarantee" Dubai.
With time, everyone will be guaranteeing everyone else is some way or another.
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 18:09
#158370
Cramer is allowed his opinion. But I find the poster of Lenin(ie Bronfman) in the background set completely disgusting. But it jives with his goldman connections. A small cabal attempting to control the hardworking, tax paying citizenry. Just like Stalin....
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 18:29
#158385
Moodys? Aren't they the ones that rated the MBS? Yea I should really pay attention to anything they have to say.
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 22:34
#158596
Cramer's Star Outshines His Stock Picks
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123397107399659271.html#articleTabs_...
on Wed, 12/09/2009 - 23:27
#158633
What Cramer does is pump stocks that are about to fall & recommend selling stocks that are about to be shorted. The Barron's article explains how the use of options can make money by betting against Cramer.
on Thu, 12/10/2009 - 01:24
#158698
CRAMER IS THE WORLD'S BIGGEST CON ARTIST. HE DESERVES TO BE THROWN INTO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF HELL!!!
on Thu, 12/10/2009 - 04:26
#158744
does anyone in their right mind think that Cramer knows the first thing about Dubai ? I just read some "macro" research from Macquarie Bank (anonymously penned of course) saying that all is well and Dubai is a "sandstorm in a teacup".... so something must be up