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Moody's Downgrades Ireland From Baa3 To Junk

Tyler Durden's picture


Who would have thought a few years ago that Moody's would be one of the biggest supporters of the gold bulls...

Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Ireland's foreign- and local-currency government bond ratings by one notch to Ba1 from Baa3. The outlook on the ratings remains negative.
The key driver for today's rating action is the growing possibility that following the end of the current EU/IMF support programme at year-end 2013 Ireland is likely to need further rounds of official financing before it can return to the private market, and the increasing possibility that private sector creditor participation will be required as a precondition for such additional support, in line with recent EU government proposals.
As stated in Moody's recent comment, entitled "Calls for Banks to Share Greek Burden Are Credit Negative for Sovereigns Unable to Access Market Funding" (published on 11 July as part of Moody's Weekly Credit Outlook), the prospect of any form of private sector participation in debt relief is negative for holders of distressed sovereign debt. This is a key factor in Moody's ongoing assessment of debt-burdened euro area sovereigns.
Although Moody's acknowledges that Ireland has shown a strong commitment to fiscal consolidation and has, to date, delivered on its programme objectives, the rating agency nevertheless notes that implementation risks remain significant, particularly in light of the continued weakness in the Irish economy.
The negative outlook on the ratings of the government of Ireland reflects these significant implementation risks to the country's deficit reduction plan as well as the shift in tone among EU governments towards the conditions under which support to distressed euro area sovereigns will be made available.
Despite the increased likelihood of private sector participation, Moody's believes that the euro area will continue to utilise its considerable economic and financial strength in its efforts to restore financial stability and provide financial support to the Irish government. The strength and financial capacity of the euro area is underpinned by the Aaa strength of many of its members including France and Germany, and indicated by Moody's Aaa credit ratings on the European Union, the European Central Bank and the European Financial Stability Facility.
Moody's has today also downgraded Ireland's short-term issuer rating by one notch to Non-Prime (commensurate with a Ba1 debt rating) from Prime-3.
In a related rating action, Moody's has today downgraded by one notch to Ba1 from Baa3 the long-term rating and to Non-Prime from Prime-3 the short-term rating of Ireland's National Asset Management Agency (NAMA), whose debt is fully and unconditionally guaranteed by the government of Ireland. The outlook on NAMA's rating remains negative, in line with that of the government's bond ratings.

The main driver of today's downgrade is the growing likelihood that participation of existing investors may be required as a pre-condition for any future rounds of official financing, should Ireland be unable to borrow at sustainable rates in the capital markets after the end of the current EU/IMF support programme at year-end 2013. Private sector creditor participation could be in the form of a debt re-profiling -- i.e., the rolling-over or swapping of a portion of debt for longer-maturity bonds with coupons below current market rates -- in proportion to the size of the creditors' holdings of debt that are coming due.
 Moody's assumption surrounding increased private sector creditor participation is driven by EU policymakers' increasingly clear preference-- as expressed during the negotiations over the refinancing of Greek debt -- for requiring some level of private sector participation given that private investors continue to hold the majority of outstanding debt.
A call for private sector participation in the current round of financing for Greece signals that such pressure is likely to be felt during all future rounds of official financing for other distressed sovereigns, including Ba2-rated Portugal (as Moody's recently stated) as well as Ireland.
Although Ireland's Ba1 rating indicates a much lower risk of restructuring than Greece's Caa1 rating, the increased possibility of private sector participation has the effect of further discouraging future private sector lending and increases the likelihood that Ireland will be unable to regain market access on sustainable terms in the near future. This in turn implies that some Irish government bond investors would need to absorb losses. The increased risk of a disorderly and outright payment default or of a disorderly debt restructuring by Greece also increases the risk that Ireland will be unable to regain access to private sector credit.
The downward pressure that this creates is mitigated in Ireland's case by the strong commitment of the Irish government to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, and by its success, so far, in achieving the fiscal adjustment required by the EU/IMF programme. To date, Ireland has met all of its objectives under that programme. In the first half of 2011, the primary balance target was exceeded, with tax revenues on track and lower-than-anticipated government expenditures. However, Moody's cautions that implementation risks related to the overall deficit reduction aims of the three-year programme are still significant, particularly in light of the continuing weakness of domestic demand.
Apart from Ireland's adherence to fiscal consolidation, Moody's also acknowledges the Irish economy's continued competitiveness and business-friendly tax environment. The considerable wage adjustment that occurred in the course of the crisis reflects the Irish labour market's flexibility. Taking Ireland's economic adjustment capacity into account, Moody's expects that, after a period of prolonged retrenchment, Ireland's long-term potential growth prospects remain higher than those of many other advanced nations. While the government's debt-to-GDP burden is expected to be high compared to similarly rated sovereign credits, Ireland has managed elevated levels of indebtedness in the past, and has shown political cohesion while enacting difficult structural adjustments.
Moody's would consider a further rating downgrade if the Irish government is unable to meet the targeted fiscal consolidation goals. A further deterioration in the country's economic outlook would also exert downward pressure on the rating, as would further market disruption resulting from a disorderly Greek default.
Moody's also notes that upward pressure on the rating could develop if the government's continued success in achieving its fiscal consolidation targets, supported by a resumption of sustained economic growth, is able to reverse the current debt dynamics, thereby sustainably improving the Irish government's financial strength.


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Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:32 | 1449022 bania
bania's picture

Just downgrade it to Juncker and be done with it!

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:32 | 1449023 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Hey...I resemble that remark

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:36 | 1449033 kaiten
kaiten's picture

Mhmm, so they downgraded Ireland now, because she could need more financial aid in 2013. Yeah, that makes a lot sense to me ...

Just more euro-bashing to push euro down(and dollar up), so that the QE3 could commence.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:52 | 1449138 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It's to late for Ireland. QE3 won't make it in time. They're toast.

They'll default in 1 to 3 months.

check out their 10yr.


Just waint untill tomorrows markets will open. Even the Chinese Knights won't be able to save that maiden.


Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:08 | 1449215 kaiten
kaiten's picture

Ireland is financed through EFSF, who cares about 10yr yield? it´s just statistics

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:23 | 1449260 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


your right...

But the stock market doesn't :)

In 12 hours, when the european markets open, we'll know for sure.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:26 | 1449278 magpie
magpie's picture

So how many liras does the EFSF need for bella Italia ?

Funny that i experienced day-on-day 40 % inflation at the bakers today, so i am prepared for everything.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:31 | 1449302 kaiten
kaiten's picture

Italy doesnt need any EFSF financing. When QE3 begins, all Italy´s "troubles" will be forgotten.

Italy´s budget deficit for this year: 3,9% (of GDP)

US budget deficit for this year: 10% (of GDP)

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:53 | 1449419 kaiten
kaiten's picture

The irish 10y yield is above 10% for some time already. I dont think the "market" will suddendly start noticing any more than before :) But as you said, we´ll see tomorrow.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:57 | 1449440 r101958
r101958's picture

No, they downgraded Ireland to prop up the delusion here in the U.S. and to make treasuries more attractive.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 17:05 | 1449476 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

The Italian Show not interesting enough?

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:33 | 1449034 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Uh no, they've got me lucky charms.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:35 | 1449035 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Dang, time to fire up the printing presses obviously! QE is the answer, cant these people observe what The Great Bernank has done to such great success?

Excuse me, I gotta go buy me some bubble stawks...I got a hankerin.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:42 | 1449084 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Europe is fixed...Europe isn't fixed...Europe is fixed...Europe isn't fixed.

And all the while, the presumed direction of the "stawk" market is up.

What a joke.  Banker desperation rising....

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:35 | 1449037 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Long Bailey's.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:36 | 1449045 youngman
youngman's picture

Its the "I" week...Italy and week is P week....Portugal....then S...Spain...then U..USA..then back to G..Greece

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:54 | 1449142 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

No black swan untill then?


Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:37 | 1449049 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

"Junk" is such a harsh word.  They should use something more like "Dubious".

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:47 | 1449113 hambone
hambone's picture


or maybe

"shit out of luck"

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:00 | 1449175 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

"ain´t worth a shit" may be more lke it.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:37 | 1449050 Stuart
Stuart's picture

Sure, pick on the little guys.   Given their complicity in the MBS fiasco, the fact that people still act on their ratings is astounding.   In any event, one wonders if S&P, Moodys etc... would be so pressured by Geithner et al, to keep the market and media focus on Europe, downgrade anything, just keep the bond market over there rattled so that enough scared ants make their way over here, ensuring Uncle Sam gets his fill of Treasury bids.  That would be a little too cynical, right?   No one would ever orchestrate anything like that.   Amazing Italy is up now, just when there's a pending budget battle in Washington.... amazing timing, always.



Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:41 | 1449078 sabra1
sabra1's picture

am sure that china now owns enough european debt to do likewise to the U.S.!

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:38 | 1449052 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Isn't 'junk' good?  Like the Black Eyed Peas song?



Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:43 | 1449088 camoes
camoes's picture

Nobody wants to touch this junk....except for TSA, they love to touch and fondle junk and smell used diapers

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:52 | 1449057 etrader
etrader's picture

Moodys may as well down grade RBS , LYG  & the UK while their at it....

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:39 | 1449063 golfrattt
golfrattt's picture

Who's left to downgrade, anyway..??

Somalia, Monaco maybe...??

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:40 | 1449067 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

 It seems me that negative events are occurring at a much faster pace now than just a few weeks ago.

 At this rate the whole Ponzi could unravel this summer. I was really hoping we could make it to the fall.

 It seemed more fitting that "the fall" would happen in the fall. 

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:24 | 1449268 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

I, too, have been sensing a quickening. The last week, and especially yesterday, I just felt like things were teetering, barely staying upright. Today, not quite so much, but there was really something about yesterday that made me think, "This time, it's different."

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:40 | 1449070 shortnotgold
shortnotgold's picture



Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:41 | 1449075 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

As if the Ponzi survives until 2013...normalcy bias...

I bet we have bank holidays before then...

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:41 | 1449077 swissinv
swissinv's picture

probability mood(ys) tree:


EU    ------ unchanged


        ------ downgrade


US    ------ upgrade


        ------ unchanged



Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:42 | 1449082 zebra
zebra's picture

junk everyone and DJI goes to 20000

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:58 | 1449445 r101958
r101958's picture

correction: 'junk everyone else'

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:43 | 1449089 Helena Bonham-Carter
Helena Bonham-Carter's picture

Robes and furr'd gowns hide all. Plate sin with gold,

And the strong lance of justice hurtless breaks;

Arm it in rags, a pygmy's straw does pierce it.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:43 | 1449090 caerus
caerus's picture

long jameson

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:30 | 1449297 Sgt.Sausage
Sgt.Sausage's picture

Longer Bushmills


Tue, 07/12/2011 - 18:07 | 1449669 caerus
caerus's picture

Hear, hear!


A statesman is an easy man, he tells his lies by rote.  A journalist invents his lies, and rams them down your throat.  So stay at home and drink your beer and let the neighbors vote.

- W.B. Yeats

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:45 | 1449106 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Reggie downgraded to junk weeks ago.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:46 | 1449109 sabra1
sabra1's picture


WASHINGTON – China secured its first top-level management post in the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, in a move that recognizes Beijing’s growing clout in the global economy.

New IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde named Chinese economist Min Zhu, a former deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China and a special adviser to the fund, to a newly-created deputy managing director post.

She also said White House adviser David Lipton will succeed John Lipsky when he steps down as the fund’s No. 2 official at the end of August.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:49 | 1449120 Watts_D_Matter
Watts_D_Matter's picture

I would say Ireland should be rated....Drunk

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:02 | 1449181 Strider52
Strider52's picture

I can definitely say Ireland should be rated "Expensive". I just got back from Ireland a week ago. Prices have tripled in some places - and don't even bother to rent a car - they will rip you off terribly. Bring a camcorder and film the entire transaction with the car rental company, or face a bunch of charges you later have to have removed. Use an Amex card and you can have the bogus charges removed easily.

 Lodging, food, transpo - everything is geared to take the tourist to the cleaners. They are broke. I saw one place, not even in an airport, that featured a cheesburger, chips (fries) and a coke - for 13 Euros. That's over $18 US.

  We won't be going back for a while, if ever. But hey, 4 times is enough, right?

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:07 | 1449213 Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

Its not expensive.... Its just the dollar ain't worth crap anymore lol

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:09 | 1449222 Herbert_guthrie
Herbert_guthrie's picture

If ever my flow of Guinness is cut off, my real "depression" begins.....

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:16 | 1449245 Grimbert
Grimbert's picture

Ireland has always been expensive - I have always paid 30-50% more for beer in Dublin than in England, and I've been going regularly for the last 20 years.


If anything over the last 2 years prices have fallen as imports from the UK have become cheaper and the Irish have had pay cuts



Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:20 | 1449254 redguard
redguard's picture

Strider, what month and year is your avatar. Thanx

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:44 | 1449377 dcb
dcb's picture

I am sorry, that is not correct, as every central banker will tell you a country can't have inflation with an output gap and high unemployment. (JUst kidding I hate when they say such stupid crap that isn't true over and over again). krugman as well!!!

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 21:39 | 1450169 EFNuttin
EFNuttin's picture

Interviewed an Irishman recently here in the USA.  After years of working outside of Ireland, the Celtic Tiger phase had enabled all six siblings to come home and work near their parents.  Due to the Crash, the diaspora is on again and this bloke is desperate to escape Ireland and so long to the family.  

Guinness is too dear for me to hoist it these days.  Lord, just give me one more boom and I swear I won't blow it this time.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:50 | 1449124 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

Iceland is the model.  Banks or citiziens, pick one.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:10 | 1449227 Herbert_guthrie
Herbert_guthrie's picture

Maybe if they would have chose "banks", the volcanoes would not have got so pissed off.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:50 | 1449127 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

We seem to always bash the leaders of these countries and always talk about how the people suffer by their actions that cater to the bankers.

But didn't the people elect these corrupt officials? Didn't the sheeple (Sorry, I mean people) allow leader after leader to slowly take away all of their wealth and give it to the financial elite?

Did the Irish people not vote out a Political Party a few months ago and vote for a party that was against the bailouts? And once that said Party was voted into office they turned around and accepted the bailouts! Yet not one politician was injured, killed, fire bombed, house burnt to the ground etc. The people just bent over and took it.

You get the Government you vote for. Stupid people have been led to the slaughter for 1,000's of years and today is no different. This is not just for Ireland but the entire Western World.

Fortunately there are a few smart people who read Zero Hedge and other truth organizations and can prepare.

Over the past four years I have felt like that Children's Fable Aesop "The Ant and the Grasshopper". I have steadily been accumulated for the long hard Winter ahead while the Grasshopper frolic. Time will tell....

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:10 | 1449223 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Unfortunately voting in corruption is not something people can control.  It should be obvious to most that if the media is pushing a candidate they are likely corrupt or just a cog in the machine.  Even smart people thought Obama would be different and now know better.

Vote for NO PARTY or vote for the people that are not supported by the party-heads.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:59 | 1449454 r101958
r101958's picture

Vote for a write in candidate.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:50 | 1449129 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

The Irish need to default and then resurrect the Irish pound; the 100 pound note should have a smiling Irish Leprechaun assfukking a bent over Juncker.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:53 | 1449139 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Nice one! We can get Williambanzai7 to design it!

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:52 | 1449136 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

We have lots of Gold in care of our leprechauns. Tiddly, aye, aye contagion Bitchez!!! Thanks for all the liquidity Ben, now fuck off!

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:54 | 1449143 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Where's the IRA? They need to to reactivate and chase the shysters....

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:00 | 1449170 Misean
Misean's picture


Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:55 | 1449149 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

Are we witnessing a pissing match between two strong allies? U.S. vs. E.U. Winner gets Chinese  bail outs. Step right up folks....

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:55 | 1449150 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

hopefully this will lower the price of Guinness, if not, this not good !

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:11 | 1449230 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

The recent trend in Ireland has been to wine not brews.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 18:21 | 1449716 caerus
caerus's picture

Wine comes in at the mouth

And love comes in at the eye;

That's all we shall know for truth

Before we grow old and die.

I lift the glass to my mouth,

I look at you, and I sigh.

- Yeats



Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:57 | 1449156 The Count
The Count's picture

It's curtains for Europe and us in the very near future. Who ever did not prepare will be very, very, sorry. Many still think its all academic, the consequences will be real.



Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:57 | 1449160 docj
docj's picture

The default parade is back on track.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:59 | 1449165 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Downgrades are transitory and not to be used for shorting or bank runs..incredibull Jedi knight stuff

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 15:59 | 1449166 Misean
Misean's picture

Long molotov cocktails.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:02 | 1449186 luigi
luigi's picture

Moody's, you're nothing but much talk and a badge! :D

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:03 | 1449193 chancee
chancee's picture

As usual, SPY breaks through support only to be magically propped on massive volume.  Same as this morning... of course, the massive volume never serves to push SPY higher, only keep it from going lower.  Strange.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:15 | 1449240 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

does anyone not think the downgrade if ireland along with all the other dire news from the eu may be related to better than expected us treasury auctions without the backstop of the fed?  seems too coincidental to me...

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:24 | 1449272 magpie
magpie's picture

expect the, uh, better than expected...

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:23 | 1449241 redguard
redguard's picture


Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:26 | 1449281 ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

The only true consumptive (in more ways than one) economy is the US. All others depend on the US. Just look at the trade balance, we only run a surplus with maybe Australia.

The longer the US economy stalls, the worse it gets for everyone else. Believe in trickle down when it comes to economies of scale.  

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 17:11 | 1449503 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

That' the spirit! Consume like the Ant!

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 16:39 | 1449340 alus
alus's picture

Go to Russia - there you'll see the really high prices.. Been there last week.

Examples: beer 0.5l - 10$, sandwitch - 6$, dinner (not so big) - 18$, cheap hotel (not in Moscow!) - 200$,

toy for kid - 40$... Still comparing to Irland?

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 17:20 | 1449528 The Count
The Count's picture

Go to Brazil. For what you get the prices are unreal (pun intended). Dare you do have dinner in an average place for less than $20. 

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 17:20 | 1449529 The Count
The Count's picture

Go to Brazil. For what you get the prices are unreal (pun intended). Dare you do have dinner in an average place for less than $20. 

Wed, 07/13/2011 - 00:49 | 1450555 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

I'm guessing the visit wasn't to compete in a Spelling-Bee.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 17:04 | 1449473 midnight
midnight's picture

Moody's has been very active in Europe. U.S. is REALLY in trouble :p

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 17:04 | 1449475 midnight
midnight's picture

Moody's has been very active in Europe. U.S. is REALLY in trouble :p

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 17:22 | 1449537 dolly madison
dolly madison's picture

Here's what the junk rated countries have to say about this.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 17:24 | 1449546 johnsilver
johnsilver's picture

are those guys still have any credit? i mean rating agencies.

i would downgrade all RAs.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 17:27 | 1449557 centerline
centerline's picture

Circle jerk, round two in full motion.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 18:27 | 1449731 css1971
css1971's picture

Way to go Ireland!


Turned an entire nation to junk for a generation, to save the bonuses of some bankers. Are you completely insane?


Tue, 07/12/2011 - 19:21 | 1449838 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture


Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: Colonel... that Coca-Cola machine. I want you to shoot the lock off it. There may be some change in there.
Colonel "Bat" Guano: That's private property.
Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: Colonel! Can you possibly imagine what is going to happen to you, your frame, outlook, way of life, and everything, when they learn that you have obstructed a telephone call to the President of the United States? Can you imagine? Shoot it off! Shoot! With a gun! That's what the bullets are for, you twit!
Colonel "Bat" Guano: Okay. I'm gonna get your money for ya. But if you don't get the President of the United States on that phone, you know what's gonna happen to you?
Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: What?
Colonel "Bat" Guano: You're gonna have to answer to the Coca-Cola company.


Tue, 07/12/2011 - 20:43 | 1450033 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

The Leprechauns will NOT be happy about this.....Moody's can forget that Pot 'o Gold at the rainbow's end.

Hey, I thought Moody's went out of business after rating all that subprime crap Tripple AAA right before it went worhtless?

Wed, 07/13/2011 - 00:11 | 1450489 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

After the EU attacked Rating Agencies the other day, for, this looks like it's shaping-up to be a Financial Cold War.
See what a lack of adult supervision leads to?! Children biting each others arms and pulling hair, fu$king pathetic!

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