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Moody's Downgrades TEPCO From A1 To Baa1

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And so Moody's wakes up.

Moody's Japan K.K. has downgraded to Baa1 from
A1 the senior secured and long-term issuer ratings on Tokyo Electric
Power Co., Inc. (TEPCO).

Moody's also downgraded the short-term rating for TEPCO's commercial paper to Prime-2 from Prime-1.

All three ratings remain on review for possible downgrade.

The downgrade reflects the significant financial obligations the
company faces as it continues to address multiple challenges resulting
from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that seriously damaged several
of its nuclear and thermal generating facilities, most notably its
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. TEPCO continues to struggle to control
reactor temperature and limit radioactive leaks at the plant, problems
that appear far from being resolved.

The downgrade takes into
consideration the enormous costs the company will incur as it recovers
from this disaster, including costs for replacement power, the building
of new generation plants to replace the permanently damaged plants, and
the decommissioning of the contaminated plant.

These costs will
inevitably increase TEPCO's already high debt leverage and could result
in substantial rate increases that its residential and industrial
customers may not be able to tolerate over the near term.

These costs could lead to losses for at least the next two years if the company cannot increase the rates substantially.

Furthermore, the radiation that has already been released in and around
the plant could make TEPCO liable for an unknown amount of damages
incurred by local residences, businesses, and farms in the area.

Depending on the magnitude of the damages and the extent to which TEPCO
is found liable, TEPCO's ability to meet these large and potentially
growing obligations could be severely strained.

As a result,
Moody's believes TEPCO will remain highly leveraged and unprofitable for
an extended period of time and will face substantial risk regarding
nuclear liability.

Although the Japanese government would
typically be responsible for these claims if it determined that the
March 11 events comprised an "unusually severe natural disaster", there
has been no indication that the government is willing to directly absorb
these costs. Recent statements from government officials appear to
indicate that TEPCO may have to shoulder at least part of this
liability.

The costs for replacement power are likely to be
significant as a number of the damaged plants were low-cost baseload
nuclear and coal units. In addition to the Fukushima Daichi nuclear
plant, the company's nearby Fukushima Daini nuclear plant, as well as
its Hirono and Hitachinaka thermal plants, have also suffered damage.

Much of this low-cost generation will be replaced by higher-cost LNG
and oil-fired generation, which will substantially increase the
company's fuel costs. Given the likelihood that the entire Fukushima
Daiichi nuclear site may never be brought on line again, TEPCO's
generation costs are likely to be elevated over a longer term, adding to
fuel costs and putting additional pressure on customer rates.

The downgrade of TEPCO's Prime-2 short-term rating for commercial paper
recognizes the severely constrained liquidity position the company faces
over the near term. Although TEPCO had nearly JPY700 billion of cash on
hand as of December 31, 2010, it has lost access to the equity and bond
markets as the nuclear crisis has unfolded.

Although it has
reportedly secured a JPY1.9 trillion loan from several of its major
relationship banks, which will shore up the company's liquidity and
financial viability over the near term, this will only temporarily meet
cash flow needs to build new generation, pay for more expensive
replacement power, and meet upcoming debt maturities.

Moody's
believes that the company will require additional liquidity support from
other banks, Japanese government lenders, insurance companies, or other
sources, to assist it in meeting its substantial liquidity and cash
flow needs, especially if it is required to provide compensation for the
disaster. However, whether the banking system will extend further
credit without an improvement in TEPCO's financial profile is
questionable.

The result of these developments is a standalone
credit profile that is not longer consistent with an investment-grade
rating. The current final rating still reflects the expectation that the
Japanese government will ultimately act in a way to preserve TEPCO's
solvency without losses to lenders.

Moody's believes it is
likely the government will consider that TEPCO's ongoing viability is
critical to the reliability and integrity of the power system in the
Tokyo area and that it will continue to recognize the broader financial
implications of allowing a major company like TEPCO to collapse.

The ratings remain on review as the company continues to struggle to
secure the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant reactors, and because of the
substantial uncertainty about the magnitude of the company's costs and
ultimate financial obligations for third-party damages. The review will
focus on the company's progress in stabilizing the Fukushima Daiichi
plant site, the potential amount of third-party liability costs, the
costs of cleaning up and decommissioning the nuclear plant site, and
indications of the form of government support for the utility.

Ratings downgraded and remaining on review for possible downgrade include:

TEPCO's senior secured rating, to Baa1 from A1

TEPCO's issuer rating, to Baa1 from A1

TEPCO's short-term rating for commercial paper, to Prime-2 from Prime-1

Moody's last rating action with respect to TEPCO was on March 18, 2011,
when its long-term ratings were downgraded, and the ratings were
remained for further review for downgrade.

 

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Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:30 | 1120821 JohnnieWalker
JohnnieWalker's picture

Yet another nationalization on the way - if not already secured behind closed doors.
Get off the Blue Label Moody's - TEPCO's debt should be downgraded to 'radioactive - do not touch!'

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:34 | 1120837 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

i want to buy some options on some geiger counter futures. i think long becquerels, short treasuries.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:04 | 1120931 MonsterBox
MonsterBox's picture

yeah, a rating of a dead carp on the road.  Sure, TEPCO has "tried" to fix things but the only product I've seen is long string of misleading statements.  Success here would've measured by their actually resolving this crisis, early, before things began to blow up and cores melted.

Somehow, their lack of planning, engineering diligence & risk management is morphing into everyone else's problem.  Now their gooberment is going to shelter TEPCO's execs and share holders by nationalizing them and preventing the injured from suing them.

just great...

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:32 | 1120824 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Deep Shah

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:32 | 1120825 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

bernanke just got wood:

"These costs will inevitably increase TEPCO's already high debt leverage and could result in substantial rate increases that its residential and industrial customers may not be able to tolerate over the near term. "

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:37 | 1120841 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Estimates just for the Chernobyl accident for Ukraine was $4,000,000,000 which according to the inflation calc. I used states that adjusted for inflation = $8,076,970,076

For what a what it's worth comparrison.

I think Fukushima will be far more expensive to clean up...anyone hear the reports of thousands of radioctive bodies so radiated they can't even be removed yet, or even buried?

no bueno

Of course TEPCO will be nationalized.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:40 | 1120849 max2205
max2205's picture

they should have waited till April when they could rate them Caa

Who actually pays these guys for such crap services

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:41 | 1120853 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Yet still IG.

Same as Lehman and Enron.....

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:51 | 1120891 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Good morning Lizzy,

We are all enron now.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:44 | 1120867 knukles
knukles's picture

LOL
Why even bother?

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:45 | 1120870 Reptil
Reptil's picture

Using the word "decommissioning" is preposterous. At least in the Dai ichi plant. (all 6 reactors and surrounding buildings) Given the contamination (that will continue to leak from the #1 core, and possible more) it'll be not possible to salvage anything there.

They'd be VERY lucky if they don't lose most of Northern Japan. Pray the weather remains offshore.

http://www.fairewinds.com/multimedia

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:51 | 1120895 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Net income for Tepco

2007   262 billion yen

2008   -177

2009   -113

2010   102

 

So 4 year total is barely positive, but all is good, still investment grade.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:55 | 1120918 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

Just an opinion, RIGHT????? I wish I could make millions voicing my opinions!

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:03 | 1120941 TaxEstate
TaxEstate's picture

Wow, they sure were on top of that one.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:25 | 1121023 johnnymustardseed
johnnymustardseed's picture

Hope they didn't spend a lot of time figuring that out

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 11:20 | 1121457 krispkritter
Thu, 03/31/2011 - 12:49 | 1121800 flrzero
flrzero's picture

As a recent TEPCO customer, it boggles the mind that these jokers aren't making money hand over fist. Our recent bill: 750 kWh total and the bill is JPY 18,000. They even issue two bills: one for the HVAC and one for the general electric service and each has something like JPY 2300 in basic service fee if I am deciphering the kanji correctly.

We have central heating with air source heat pump for winter heat. The house has gas for hot water heating. With these ridiculous electric rates it is rather surprising that they don't use gas heating. Well, the gas ain't cheap either.

I like having lights on in the house or I would happily not pay my bill in protest over the Fukushima situation.......

 

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