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More Bad News: Factory Orders And Pending Homes Sales Both Miss Big, Durable Goods Revised Lower
Pending home sales came in at -2.6%, on hope and faith of even a modest rebound to the tune of 3.9%. This of course came after last month's plummeting (and revised) -29.9%. Factory orders also dropped to -1.2%, versus expectation of -0.5%, after the prior -1.4% reading. Lastly, the trifecta of ongoing bad news was completed as the June durable goods number was revised from -1.0% to -1.2%. And that giant slurping noise you hear in the background is the printers at the Marriner Eccles building loading up with ink.
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"tipping point"
wow it only took the market 20 minutes to digest this information before it resumed the meltup
This definately fuels the meltup!
Since the start of May, investors have pulled $40.7 billion from domestic equity funds. That's 12 consecutive weeks of outflows, according to Investment Company Institute.
And yet, HeliBen is about to execute some token reverse repos this week. Is he in a dreamworld trying to look cool that he could lure is into believing he could do what he needs to to when ever he wants??? Get you're frekin head out of that pisshole you junky!
It's a serious mistake to assume that the public face of the Ponzi is dumb, stupid, senile or just plain crazy. First off, you're jousting with puppets, albeit very smart puppets. Second, they have an agenda that isn't publicly shared and only telegraphed to those they wish to receive it.
That doesn't mean we're helpless unless we mistake them for fools. Then we're the fools.
absolutely ...these are no fools ...these are very intelligent puppets..Obama, Rahm .Timmy, Biden,..etc..these people deserve oscars for the roles they r playing....and they are just reading the scripts which may have been written 2 decades back and reheased time after time
And what is the name of the film we are watching?
Mellonesque Liquidation.
Okay, I looked at that, and I can see your point. What are you doing to protect yourself, if you don't mind my asking?
Defintely can feel "foolish" as we continue to pay attention to this "theater" know as investing. It didn't feel like this before the oughts!! However, AYS the puppets have clearly shown their hand ('08) and continue to play an with a "stacked" deck.
Hey CD - do you think someone like BB is "in" on the game, like fully in whatever PTB plan there is, or is chosen because his world view is easily manipulated/conforms to the game plan? Like choosing someone that wrote a book on the Depression and even discussed what he would do in those circumstances? A serious question.
It seems it would be a more successful secret plan the fewer people who actually knew it? That way they are not "acting", but somewhat seriously were carrying on what they believed should be done. Of course, he can know that the banks are insolvent, but not necessarily the grand plan.
I wonder how many people really know the grand plan, or perhaps it is not that specific? Just a general framework passed on over time?
Thx...
It's so much easier using the weight of your opponent against him/her rather than meeting it head on. If I'm looking for someone to do my bidding, I'd find someone who's already convinced he/she needs to do exactly what I want done. Then all I need to do is throw a little meat in front of him/her and make sure to keep it coming.
Sometimes the easiest person to fool is the highly educated person who's already dismissed most conflicting data or information because it doesn't fit their world view. Some of the most narrow minded people I've ever met were also some the most highly educated. Most people don't realize that education is indoctrination into a world view. The more specialized that training/indoctrination, the more likely they are to narrow their world view to conform to the training.
I don't wish to make a blanket statement here. I'm talking about tendencies, not absolutes. However, I find from personal experience that nothing blinds a person more than being feed what they want to hear. It's amazing the lengths we will go to in order to justify what we wish to believe and denigrate or undermine that which we reject.
Regarding Ben, think of it as layers in an onion. Each layer has it's purpose and structure and while there is some cross over between layers, the layer 3 or 4 layers away has no idea what's going on over there. I suspect Ben is not one of the top dogs. But that doesn't mean he isn't close enough to hear the others breathing. Ever wonder why there are 33 degrees of Mason?
Sorry, I refuse to believe that Bernanke is some master manipulator who is orchestrating a well-timed plan to perfection. I think he is an arrogant academic who thought that his enormous intellect and his well-tuned models could masterfully guide the economy. When it hasn't worked out that way, he has no Plan B.
I'm not sure if you read my entire comment. The last paragraph says...
So I'm saying Ben is not a top dog. Thus he is also not a master manipulator.
CD, you strike two chords with me. First of all I have my Ph D and it is true that the high level of education is indoctrination. Currently, US universities are nothing more the indoctrination exercises into what I call counter culture communism. It is the ideas of the 1960's twisted as a weapon against the population that they were intended to liberate.
Second, I am a Freemason (3rd degree). When I joined all of these conspiracies were floating around about the Masons. Trust me, the only thing the Masons are these days are a bunch of senile, old farts in a dying lodge. They are harmless. If any 33rd degree or any other Mason is involved with a pact to dominate our society (I would not rule it out), it is not sourced from the lodge. This activity runs against the lodge's doctrine of freedom.
I made no reference to Mason controlling anything. Just that there are 33 degrees of Mason. Taken in context, that was a reference to the layers of the onion, also known as compartmentilization.
And while I appreciate your inside knowledge, the effect of compartmentalization is that the people lower down the rung don't know what's going on further up. All you should/could/would/might know is the 3rd degree, all the degrees lower than you and possibly one or two degrees above you with any degree of certainty.
No insult intended. Just explaining compartmentalization.
CD, I am not insulted at all. People make all sorts of weird accusations against the lodge that are strange. Some are based on a hint of truth, most are ridiculous kinda like the V-shaped recovery. For future reference, the 33rd degree is an honorary title.
The lodge works in this manner. The initial 3 degrees (Blue Lodge) present a candidate to all of the symbols and ideals the lodge represents without explaining any detail. Degrees 4-32 (York Rite or Scottish Rite) explain the details of the symbols and presents candidates with different theological prospectives from various religions around the world. The lower and upper portions of the lodge work independently of each other. I am not sure this fits too well into your idea of compartmentalization, but is similar in nature.
Again, not being insulting or stating as fact anything here. I'm speaking hypothetically, just as I was above. The original comment above was about Benny and the Feds (sounds like a jazz band) and the fact that the Fed is most likely manipulating the markets etc.
Along the same line, IF the Masons were a secret organization whose intent was to apply subtle but effective (political, social, economic, religious etc) manipulation for whatever purpose, wouldn't the vast majority of people inside the Masons also be indoctrinated into the same cover story the public is/was regarding what the Mason's were or weren't really doing?
True, higher education either indoctrinates or really demonstrates the inanity of the system.
It seems the US Free Masons are good old farts dying in lodges, some of them all around good and decent people. But elsewhere...can anyone here correct a rumor that's floated - most investment bankers in Shanghai/Singapore are Masons?
just askin, new here. i don't get the helicopter analogy with ben b. pretty sure it is simple. just can't picture it in my mind, well for a while now. also somthing i have been wanting to ask, what does the analogy of a tin foil hat, represent?
He said he'd drop buckos from a helicopter.
I always thought that the tin foil hat was referencing conspiracy theorists who thought they needed to wear tin foil hats so the government couldn't read their thoughts.
Yep, it was in response to some super-secret government satellite that could read your mind. The tinfoil hat was supposed to block it.
Bloomberg said this is a sign of factories "revving up".. Another analyst says it may take "a few more months" for the housing recovery.. Hmmm
Is unemployment benefits enough to buy a 200k house?.. Just wondering..
New orders down in June per the ISM ... so the factories revving must be in China.
No, but if you can get into one you can live in it for free.
Off Topic
Just read this article by convicted and now out on bail Conrad Black
It is worth reading (almost something that you might expect to read at infowars)
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/07/31/conrad-black-my-prison-ed...
I'll celebrate when yesterday's gap gets filled.
Same here. There are now two sizable gaps on the ES just sitting out there. Will the market just ignore them? 7/22 - 1063.75 and yesterday's 1100.25. The last time the market tried to ignore them it ended up getting sucked over the falls... We'll see how she does.
We'll see how she does...............???
The market is a FEMALE????!!!!!
The market is a BITCH!
+1150 bitchez
It's okay, though. Economists were expecting a 5% decrease, so the 2.6% decrease is unexpectedly better and the markets should be turning around shortly.
ZH is turning into such trash.
Clearly dis be a jobless, creditless, lawless, orderless, saleless, purchaseless, confidenceless, solventless, gdpless, demandless, recovery.
Wow, that's quite a take consider not one of those words appear in a one paragraph statement reaffirming what the readings were.
But, hey, why let the facts stand in your stupid ass way?
Run along child.....
Yes, becuase jobs are booming, house availability cannot meet demand, and factories are just producing so much stuff for us to spend all these great dollars on.
Thank you for exposing your idoicy on what is going on in the world. Please redirect yourself to http://cnbc.com, kthanksbie.
What kind of recovery do you see? To what mythology do you adhere?
How much did Ben pay you to come here? In other words - go blow yourself with the CNBC crowd.
So...fucking...what? We've already crossed into the nexxus. I'll bet my left nut that they'll push the market higher anyway. We're way past the point of no return now. The fed could give a fuck less about the fact that it's blatant. They've gone full-on in-your-face now.
DOW down 50...give me a fucking break. They close it up 100+ by the close.
We've crossed into a hair salon company? Wow, that is interesting considering the article had nothing to do with personal grooming.
And do you really follow the equity markets as if they provide confirmation of anything other than liquidity churn? Really? How juvenile.
Oh my god...a typo on a chat board. I'm so ashamed and humiliated. But, just to know that you took the time to douche it up by pointing out...well, that's has a soothing effect. Thanks Capt'n Douche Bag!
"that's has a soothing effect".... "that's has", what is wrong with you?
Your idiocy is expected. Your spelling and grammar mistakes are unacceptable. Clean it up.
I'll that do best boss! Me thinks too muchly that this chat board and thats' OK two. But; sumtime dooch baggy person try too look hard at these's things. So, fouR that's I must apolOgizes.
Oh, eat my hairy ass. Or, go fuck yourself. I'm perfectly comfortable extending either option to you. I suppose you could do both in tandem if you're feeling up to it. It's your decision. I'll let you decide your own level of fucktardedness.
You sound like an unemployed English teacher. Just sayin'.
Boilermaker,
I'll take that bet and raise you a right tit.
WHAT, but Bloomberg said existing home sales Probably rose in June. Maybe they should wait from now on instead of using probably, looks like, may etc etc. Anything to pump this POS market higher, glad I transferred all of my trading account money back into savings to buy gold on the dips, Screw them all.
This is all occuring with "official" 10% unemployment.
Prepare for the coming 15% and then 20% and shortly when the state jobs and city jobs go. You wanna see deflating prices? Imagine the kind of cash destruction that will occur when the money leaving those households contines downward for the next decade. The fact that almost nobody is expecting this because of the propoganda coming from administration should equate to some at first very confused, then scared and then angry citizens.
Take it to the bank that cable subsidies will be here within two years...anything and everything will be done to prevent civil unrest.
The only way out eventually will be a world war to occupy the unemployed and the eventual taking of other nations resources.
The raindrop walkers have been amassing the most advanced military in world history, installing small bases overseas, developing unprecedented intelligence networks and disrupted numbers of regions to prevent organization and leadership. Does anyone honestly think they have spent trillions on te greatest prom outfit in history and are simply not going to go to the dance?
They are fucking go allright, they have Super streched Hummer limo, the bar is stocked to the hilt and they have every intention of dancing all night long until not a soul is left on the dancefloor
John,
By and large I agree, except the war card has been played 3x in the past 20 years. How has that card been working for TPTB lately?
How has that card been working for TPTB lately?
Well, based on how they're doing and living I'd say it's working out pretty Goddamned well. No?
I'm not so sure that the war card has really been played. If it has, then we are totally screwed. If we've just been churning a bit, establishing bases and getting ready for what is coming next, then who knows. By the way... it's kind of weird for me to reference this as "we"... I stand very opposed to the industrial military complex... but I guess it's my industrial military complex. Time will tell.
If you think of the military industrial complex like you do teacher/police retirements, then it should make a lot more sense... just an inevitable expansion of the size of government... by and large, it was simply the accumulation of too much meat from taxpayers that was fed to the dogs that bark the loudest. It's had the added bonus of ensuring the ponzi lasts much longer than it would have otherwise.
The whole thing will get dumped... the spoils paid out in salaries, grants, and bonuses to those in the industry along the way... (and that's just the part we know about). No more war in our future... we will not need it as the world contracts and becomes more isolated. Aside from the fact there is no political will to implement it... (weren't we supposed to attack Iran a long time ago?).
The behemoth has run out of gas.
That is what I fear foto. At this stage of thievery from the masses and calls for avoidance of political partisanship and a movement back toward the fundamental core of the constitution which is free markets, sound money, less debt and a mild isolationist stance (returning our troops from overseas) and drastically cutting our military spending they are going to need an event that it so polarizing domestically and abroad with our allies that it will permit them to continue the profiteering, disrupt political trends, potential indictments if new leadership is in place in coming years, and allow the Federal Reserve to operate with impunity.
Think about this, There were more private military forces in Afghanistan in 2009 than U.S. military. The amount of money being expended over the past decade must yield them resources. Events we cannot even fathom would be necessary to lead to a global World War. The media is aligned against us on a dis-information scale that is unprecedented. They have come this far and they have no intention of failing.We are in the 4th quarter, 1:30 on the clock and let's hope John Elway does not have the ball.
The awesome part is that paying for all that shit put daddy into bankruptcy, which caused her to get pulled from the fancy private school and stuffed into the prison/public school system. Ostracized from her friends, she had no need to get any cum on her fancy prom dress... in fact, it was sold to help pay moving expenses.
It wasn't for a lack of effort that's for sure... but this thing implodes before they get the chance...
Triple post
double post
But the palazzo of cards is more vulnerable than it appears. They don't have the kind of political leadership and credibility that used to be possible like back during the 1930s. These are cynical times, back then it was idealism. Black Swans have reproduced.
Hmmm...according to our calculations here in the basement of the Fed, two pumps in the stock market should at least generate one pump in consumer spending. Plus we been jawboning QE sugar. We don't get it. Never used to fail.
Yeah but Bob Doll is on Bloomberg right now telling investors to expect 8% per annum this ocming decade.
i am not really happy with these flurry of bad news coming at such time.....i mean i was waiting for the text book finish to the H&S time symmetry pattern...and the cardinal climax was also coming this august 6th .....i thought the S&P would have a non stop rally to atleast 1140.....
Nothing is ever textbook, hopefully we will get our crash.
Bob Dollt.
I think I've got it - the economy works on basis of complex numbers. We'll set all imaginaty components to 10, because, hey, in Ben's imaginary world, all news are great.
Pending home sales: (-2.6, 10.0i)
Factory orders: (-1.2, 10.0i)
Durable goods: (-1.0, 10.0i)
So, multiplying these yield (ac-bd,bc+ad)
Home sales * factory orders =(-2.6, 10.0i) x (-1.2, 10.0i) = (96.9,-38i)
(above) * durable = (96.9,-38i) x (-1.0, 10.0i) = (283.1,1007i)
So, in other words, not only is the economy doing REALLY WELL at present time, but so is the imaginary, which would explain why the market goes ever higher.
Imagine - The Beatles - John Lennon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCX3ZNDZAwY
I was shocked to learn that the beatles were an MI-6 front.....and the qeeny Knighted them after they supposedly did a good job in the SOCIAL ENGINEERING of the society
I'm curious where you learned that the Beatles were a MI-6 front. Links? Books? Any info would be helpful.
just google it" beatles, illuminati agent MI-6"......
we all know now how sex , drugs , rock n Roll was used to control the society....while they were working hard at their AGENDAs
I would appreciate something a little more specific than "google it" which turns up all kinds of speculation.
I'm not saying you are incorrect or correct. But to make a statement that is very far from the consensus reality and then to respond to my question for more info with "google it" doesn't do much to substantiate your statement.
i would still say " Google it".....sadly theres no "Noble prize " winning book i can mention ....read whatever stuffs u can find on the net...it will broaden ur outlook ....but while reading those things just remember that a MASSIVE CONSPIRACY is being played out here and MEdia and other forms of mass social engineering like Rock Music , sex is being used against us
googled this. scary if true. could be true. at this point in life just about anything can be true, i guess. damn, broke my heart, almost. couldn't understand the Yoko Ono blame. they probably set up 2pac, jim morrison. sons of a bitchez.
Can we calculate the curl of these field vectors? It's useful to know how fast we're going down the drain.
This country has turned into a corrupt socialist shit-hole
Perfect head fake yesterday.
Geithner is already sending out warnings on uneployment
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hHxhJRHoKwS2Z-f8bLZW_...
- if he ran a company, that's a profit warning and his stock is 10% closer to zero. However the fair value of the SPX is now negative, which is the only justification for why it will now go up.
It is really unbelievable the level of unemployment given ARRA and other mini stimulus programs. There is a lot of money going out the door at Treasury and unemployment does not improve.
Something structually is very wrong.
So we had a government funded restocking cycle. and ......... and...... then what?
As we move into August, it is becoming very evident that our GDP growth is just stimulus. I really expected some private momentum, outside of equity markets, due to the massive government spending, and it looks as though there is none.
So readers of ZH will say "so what", "old news".
But, we must ask ourselves, what further government action, Administration or FED, will improve the economy? What will they do?
FED QE2 what plausible explaination and/or approach?
ADMIN Stimulus, what will it target?
Then we have Greenspan saying that equities are the economy (I am paraphrasing). But essentially that is what he said.
Imagine, equities the foundation of the economy. A tool to increase BHC profits. The preeminence of the financial support sector to our number one industry. Behold a US molded by the banking elite, fronted by political boobs. Sad really.
If we look for a moment at the possibility of equities manipulation, structually it does not address the underlying weakness in funding growth. So even the manipulated actions are hollow? Except of course for those who charge investment fees.
So the system can no longer absorb pork and confiscation of wealth. Is it perhaps the combined pressures of high costs and de-leveraging of debt.
If I may extrapolate in banking terms:
The US is unable to pay.
----------
I only see one further large kick the can, and that is a state bailout, of it many forms, primarily starting with Medicaid funding. But, with the states, unless costs are brought down, there will be no real growth.
Mark Beck
I understand the humanitarian aspects of it, but a Medicaid bailout has zero economic benefits. From a purely economic standpoint, it's money down the drain. It will do nothing to add jobs, put us on a path to economic growth, etc. In other words, the spiral downward will continue.
Debt saturation and diminishing returns. Throwing fake money at the economy will not help it. It will only hurt it more.
All these bad news are good for market. Because, market is focused on QE2.0. Let's see if they will be able to get QE2.0 without a schock like Lehman's collapse.
The Fed guys have become too transparent and simple. I know it will stun most ZH readers, but they still Really believe in a causal relationship between stock market indices and consumer spending. Greenspan has said as much candidly on several occasions since the crisis. Simply put, they believe that if the headlines number rise, that consumers will open their wallets. Not because of the tired old "wealth effect". That would take new highs. But because of the (false) perception of inflation and that if prices are on the rise one must spend today. That was a construct that worked after the '70s and early '80s at the time of the first downsizing of the productive American economy.
Stock prices do have an effect on spending; why would they not?
Banana Ben's strategy, learned from Bubbles Greenspan, is to print money, buy assets, in turn juicing stock prices, which give traders money to spend on bar tabs, restaurant meals, strippers, hookers, blow, cab rides, Hamptons' rentals, etc., and the recipients of that money buy crap at Wal Mart.
Hmmm well their theory must hinge on the certainly that stocks=spending but ignored the fact that retail investor has abandoned the markets therefore markets have nothing to do with spending at all. Oh well, nothing $5 trillion more fiat currency cant cure Im sure.
Good thing I sold my home last summer.
Lucky you, i know of quite a few people who can not sell their homes even at highly, HIGHLY, highly reduced prices. No buyers and virtualy no one even bothering looking for homes in general.
Just look at the S&P jump off the lows. The reality distortion field is operating at maximum efficiency.
Fucking pathetic...really. They're up to their assholes in this fraud now. It gets worse and worse and worse...
I wonder when we'll be told that they've corrupted the market but 'it was well intended'?
Yep, Fraud Street is behaving perfectly predictably today.
"Good" or "Less Bad" news == zoom up at open, stay there all day
"Bad" or "DOOM" news == gap down modestly at the open, melt-up all day, close flat or slightly up.
You noticed that too?
Three things to bet on before this is over: the dollar must fall, gold must rise, all other currencies are probably dead... (International trade needs liquidity)
No use in shorting this market anymore...
I submit that it's not the insult some people think it is to say that the economy is a confidence game. All transactions--and so all markets--are based upon confidence. While there's plenty of room for hard, verifiable data in any decision to buy or sell, confidence is always at the foundation. I won't buy what I don't believe; indeed, my purchase is the only measurable indicator of my confidence in both the seller and what he's selling.
A historically minor downturn risks "civil unrest." Riots and random violence. Look at Greece. A widespread and deep unraveling of confidence risks civil war. And if you think you're ready for that, you're so naive it falls somewhere between sociopathic cruelty and crushing stupidity. (Having your own food, electricity, and guns just makes you a target for the local warlords, BTW.) Most of us grasp, at some level at least, what's at stake in such an unraveling. Some of quite reasonably do not want to believe how bad things are or might be. After all, a prejudice against seriously world-disturbing shitstorms is both rational and wise. But of course, such wilfull blindness is little help in actually fixing the problems we face.
Western gov'ts are clearly trying to boost or at least bolster confidence. Perfectly intelligent move. But what have we seen in the way of correcting the imbalances that created this crisis of confidence in the first place? A complete collapse is still extremely unlikely, but a long tripping, agonizing stumble down the far slope of porsperity seems well within the offing at this point. Engines rarely explode, but if not maintained properly, they grind down and stop working.
Solid post. I would add that all the jawboning is the only thing they have to keep it afloat... it was uncertainty that caused the initial market panic, but it's also uncertainty that keeps it afloat. If their monetary playbook doesn't work in our situation, all they've got left is talk talk talk (and manipulate manipulate manipulate). We'll be steered towards austerity in 3, 2, 1.
"Western gov'ts are clearly trying to boost or at least bolster confidence."
No shit. But they're actions are all madison avenue bullshit. not only are their actions without substance, substance that would warrant confidence, but they are doing NOTHING NOTHING NOTHING NOTHING NOTHING to fix the underlying problems. NOTHING.
and as a result, confidence will ultimately be shattered and permanently
Many of us are confident..confident the elites are criminal sociopaths ,the politicians are bought,the news managed, the markets illusion..
How do you change confidence if your news media is obviously propaganda?
Ben has big problems, short of sending each tax payer a big check or repudiate our private debt...
like he did the multinational banks..I cannot guess.
Riddle me this: what size check could have been sent to each tax payer if the Tarp money was divided and just mailed to the US taxpayers??
would it have been the cure we needed?
the markets are a total joke
and basically every trader out there who isn't a complete knucklehead sees this as obvious
the only explanation that accounts for everything we see is that the god damned central bank(s) are controlling every tick
While this may prevent the markets from crashing, it guarantees that the global economy will die
ouch, this data might take a solid 12-15 pts off the DJIA
looks like it is cause to rally another 2%
fuck this
Why are you so pessimistic? It'll close up 100 or so.
It just went green anyway. Right on cue.
Interesting.
dont fret, focus on the second derivative (-29.9 to -2.6 etc) which is improving.
the ramp up has already started.....relax now and have a break
Geithner said everything is fine and "America is coming back". I believe him, I will now dissolve my username on ZeroHedge and subscribe to Tiny Tim's NY Times editorials.
Sorry guys, but he just has so much credibility.....
Tense Indian - Why the Beatles an MI6 front and not the Rolling Stones, Led Zepplin, Cream or any number of rock bands? Don't see it. sorry.
I still think that our leaders intentionally propagate several conspiracy theories just to have curious people follow them. What do they have to fear if these "experts" are chasing ghosts and fantasies. The only thing that is afraid are farting unicorns and leprechauns.
OT: I really hate it when economics texts "examine issues" with numerical examples instead of just working it out symbolically.
Vaguely related to the topic at hand: why use greek letters and greek letter names for financial concepts? Giving "variables" bad names is just as bad as using numerical examples. Though I guess if you at least name the things, you don't have to worry about this $1 being conceptually different than that $1.
There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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