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More On That Broken 7 Month "First Day Of The Month" Winning Streak
Today's market sell off was notable not only because it was the biggest single day percentage drop since November, but because it snapped the nearly unbreakable series of positive "first day of the month" returns. The biggest loser: the thousands of momo traders who go all in the last day of the month hoping to recreate the pattern. Alas, the pattern now longer exists, and today was the biggest outlier since June of 2010. That said, since the beginning of 2010, the bulk of the market's returns are still confined to the "first day" performance as nearly 15% of cumulative returns since 2010 are of that kind, and the rest is a meager 3%. It may be time for a major algo regime change.
Chart summarizing this courtesy of John Lohman
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FIRST (of the month)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpBP9dALcWw
So cash them checks and come on....
Serves them right! momentum traders have no principles.
Principles in trading? You gotta be kidding.
Trade the data, not your religious beliefs.
Stocks are only going higher.
MethMan Likes GEN. Methman connot be wrong as he drives a Ferrari. You better get some Enron! Ooops, I mean Mirant, Ooops, I mean GenOn.
Smelly Snails also liked AIG - That POS is not only getting monkey hammered, it's getting ape raped. Anyone who listened to Smelly is down 40% in two months.
LOL!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khwjD-KVQ_Q&playnext=1&list=PL3F5ABC49FC9...
the white man's welfare didn't come through today.
True dat, Buckaroo....
Did anyone else notice the POMO today? Only $1.9 billion purchased, with a submitted to accepted of ~ 4. Someone seriously needs to print up more cash for the PDs! The boys are hurting.
whats a principle..?
A principle is that thing rammed up your a$$ by whatever institution you're still dumb enough to beleive in.
Wake up, wake up, wake up it's the 1st of the month
To get up, get up, get up so cash your checks and get up
[Krayzie]
Hey my nigga we havin' a wonderful day and I won't fuck with me. Why?
'Cause it's the 1st of the month and now we smokin', chokin', rollin' blunts
And sippin' on 40 ounces thuggin' come come we got the blessed rum
From jumpin' all nights we high
Hit up the block to where? East 99
I get with my nigga to get me some yayo
Double up nigga what you need?
We got weed to get P.O.Ded
Fiend for the green leaves
Give it up it's the foe sure you better lay low
Cause the po-po creep when they roll slow
If you can't get away better toss that yayo
Keep your bankroll
Yeah we havin' a celebration, I love to stay high
And you better believe when it's time to grind
I'm down for mine crime after crime
Fin to creep to the pad cause mom's got grub on the grill
If we got the food, you know it's the 1st of the month
and my nigga we chills foe real
[Chorus 4x]
[Bizzy]
Wake up and I see that my sister is already dressed
She said "I'm gonna run and go get my stamps
Watch and make sure no one snatches my check" nigga that's the mailman
Sort through the mail and put it up in-a me pocket
So I be hittin' the 99 to get me a dub
Foe forty bucks but ain't nobody ride that rita
Hop on the 10 to the click
Ready to get 'em up with-a me thugs
And to cash that dum
I gotta get paid play player holla holla
Saint Claire got much to offer
Whether it be weed on 93
Or off on the glock glock for some dollars, so
Get a bag of dope and a quarter roll, oh
Most all of my niggas got the same, and we gonna roll it all up to smoke
Hittin' that reefer hydro, you know the cut, so fuck them po-po
Toss all that yayo, and we're gonna say no
Runnin' through the alley and into the melee
Up on the second the sundown
Those run from January,November,December remember the 1st of the month
[Chorus 4x]
[Wish]
It's the 1st of the month
Gotta grind gotta get mine
In the hood that I claim
I slang on that double 9-9
Gotta find them dubs
Gonna get a forty, can a thug get love?
What's up?
Try to stand on my corner
Nigga you'z a gonna Saint Claire niggas don't like that
And sellin' them dummies makin' that money come back nigga get pap pap
From the 1st to the 15th niggas smoke plenty weed
But I gotta save gotta come up
Put my rocks on the cut
When I get high nigga blaze that blunt, huh
Time to roll to the pad
Count up my profits and add it to the stash
Gotta watch my back see for niggas that's tryin' to rob me, fool
But never no shorts no losses
Dumpin' keepin' this niggas up off me see
Gotta search the whole block
Spend a couple of bills
Thugs smoke a lot of weed on the 1st
[Chorus 2x]
[Layzie (Krayzie)]
Wakin' up feelin' buzzed off up early mornin' stretchin'
I'm yawnin' lightweight bent chugga lugga take a fifth to the dome
Instead I kick it with my trues
But it's the 1st so I'm getting my hustle on
Hop on the phone, calling up Krayzie Bone
Wanna know did you O.G check come? (She put me down)
I'm a hop on the bus with Biz (Yo Brother let's get drunk)
And I'm coming with blunt after blunt
Of this skunk
Nigga T just put me down
Oh God how I love when the 1st come around
Now I'm feelin' black and mild, headed cross town
'Cause niggas the 1st to get celebrated
Rushin' to the block cause I wanna get faded
Lookin' all wild cause I'm getting me hair braided
We heavy off into this game
True to the 1st just call me that pro slang
Them nickels and dimes and 20's and 50's
The 1st be the day for the dopeman
Slangin' that cocaine fool, and I'm working late tonight
And all them fiends be lovin' them thugs
'Cause I got them rocks for them pipes
Come come with them ease
I gotta get paid on the 1st, gotta blaze up my spliff
Get live with the Bone Thugs, Poetic Hustlers in the graveyard shift
On the 1st
Slangin' rocks aint much different then slangin' paper.
any chance of a 1 liner next time?
+1 liner
After-hours right now is telling; still digging out new LODs, and on hefty volume. I haven't seen this A/H action in a long time.
Any standouts?
I'm riding apple and priceline train down.
Good for you; I'm back in cash. I'm just watching the SPY, have paid very little attention to individual stocks this past year.
Just dipping my toes in here.
SH seems like a no-brainer hold at the moment.
All them inverse ETF's kept kickin' after hours.
kicks or is that bubbly corks popping :)
With correlations > .85, why bother? 'cept for the >90 P/E guys. - Ned
That article in the WSJ this morning was kind of like Walt Frazier saying.... "and Carmelo has hit 44 free throws in a row..."
BRICK!!!!
WSJ article.... http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748703749504576172862754957434-lMyQjAxMTAxMDIwODEyNDgyWj.html
Too true. I anxiously hope ZH will let me know what name they use for QE 3 so I don't have to wait for Bloomberg and WSJ to let me know a year after it's relevant. It was easy to get out of the long position right at the beginning. The teflon twenty told the tale.
Cnbc was harping too much this morning about the first day of the month thing. Not a good sign. They also harped too much on cotton and wheat right before they fell. I am hoping they will be a good contrary indicator for oil. They arent nervous yet about oil like they were foodstuffs and cotton.
Bloomberg was only a little nervous. So WTI at 110 by end of week?
My crystal balz quit telling me the future three months ago. Now I just rub them cuz it feels good.
Seems like it with our Nobel peace winner at the helm.
Some uco with trailing stops during the days? I dunno.
"So WTI at 110 by end of week?"
We never ask. Advice given directly to you on a website is usually folly.
http://www.zerohedge.com/node/11120
Read carefully and certain truths will be revealed about market trends. Patience. With patience and your understanding of the topics you will no longer have to ask.
Know your Tyler's. There have been many since 01/2009. Some more bankable than others.
"buy on the rumor, sell on the fact." don't mess with...Texas Toast i guess. More to the point "this war brought to you by...." Obviously "this has been telegraphed for months" if not since election day 2010. Now it's "time to ride the tiger." Anyone who says they know where THIS is going...doesn't. Up 'till now however...
I will just BTFD.
Which one?
I demand an[sic] Congressional investigation!
Was that a dump wti or bad print? 453 EST
You can't make this shit up:
"Stop saving. Instead, spend the money on cruises and other indulgences until you retire. Do this, her calculations showed, and you'll end up with 70 percent more income in retirement than someone who saves like crazy for the rest of his or her career...Why, yes, there IS a catch: You have to work until age 70."
http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/112212/stop-saving-so-...
LMAo ++++++++
Look into the writers resume and affiliations. She belongs to the "full retard" club.....both definitions.
I knew as soon as I read that yesterday that the 1st of the month was going to be a severly down day in the S&Ps
/made good money today!
As far as other first days go, he was not before a panel to get a raise on the debt ceiling and needing to pull a political stunt.
Let us see if indeed he is great and powerful as he thinks he is.... "See what will happen if you do not listen to me!".
Now, can he get the 10 lbs of crap back into the 5 lb sack......
Regarding momo traders: stop this insanity at once. Momentum traders trade, get ready, based on momentum. Momentum to the downside means they are short.
Will longs have a panic day?
That's the key question. Today's sell volume was up but no panic yet. However there are some early cracks: oil stocks sold off. That's a "sell everything" tell. Chips extended their selloff. Not encouraging.
The oil surprised me also, but I'm more excited about tomorrow morning than I have been for a long time. We'll see if they nip this in the bud.
Well everything has been boner up for seven months. No support under this market. Shorts aren't there to cover.
What we do see is that the market will retreat with any run up near or over 100 on wti.
Longer oil stays up the more margin damage and employment damage it will do.
I do not believe that we can support these oil and gas prices.
BUY GM::
http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/2011/03/buy-gm.html
seriously are you buying GM ?
..its been a good shell to keep the Unions membership and pensions topped up but apart from that, like being a car company, it's a close to the grave as Govt healthcare
Ten year treasuries hit the trend line. That is the reason for the sell off.
http://i1237.photobucket.com/albums/ff468/Bgriff42/Untitled.jpg?t=129901...
More likely Mr. Market sniffed a QE3 backaway...lots of political heat coming the Bernank's way today.
Pretty convenient timing wouldn't you say? The Bernank has been saying the Fed's going to pull out for a while now. There were some big players waiting for this moment. I'm thinking of shorting silver at 35.
http://i1237.photobucket.com/albums/ff468/Bgriff42/DollarIndexTrendLine....
http://i1237.photobucket.com/albums/ff468/Bgriff42/30YearTreasuryTrendLi...
The pattern will resume next month. It just had the misfortune of being the same day The Bernanke testified to Congress. Market tanks everytime he testifies before Congress. Thats a pattern too. Will go short the day before his next congressional appearance.
Good point, wonder how the volume on this outlier compares w/ the other months. That would be telling that the Bernank testimony did factor in here.
Open question <--
In your best analogy, are the markets are going into:
I must be pregnant because I'm missing my periods <--
Fuck the momos
They've been mindlessly driving up shit stocks for half a year now.
...hysterectomy...
More like oral in a dark room and, ooops I forgot to tell you I'm on my period?
Suck it up fucktard and get the job done!
You forgot miscarriage!
we should possible keep the following in the front of our minds as opposed to the back...
Remarks from Gartmann:
COMMENTS ON THE
CAPITAL MARKETS
KEEP THIS IN THE BACK OF YOUR
MINDS: We read, always with great interest, the
work sent to us by our friend on the other side of the
James River here in southern, Virginia, Paul Macrae
Montgomery, which he so kindly sends to us on Sunday
evenings. This week several things more than caught
our eyes, they captured our attention and have held it
hostage.
Firstly, Paul notes that "insider selling" in US equities
has become rampant. He notes for example that Insider
Buyer was twice that of insider selling back in the spring
of ’09. In retrospect that was a rather prescient time to
be an aggressive buyer of stocks… obviously. Normally,
insiders are net sellers of equities, for they oft times buy
via options granted to them, but then must sell on the
opening market. The former is seemingly hidden from
the public’s view; the latter is quite obviously public
knowledge. Thus it is not at all unusual to see Insider
selling 2-2.5 times as much as insider buying. That is, in
fact, the normal state of things. Two weeks ago,
however, insider selling literally swamped insider buying.
The ratio moved to a stunning 10.5:1, and as Paul said
“This was the most lopsided Sell-to-Buy ratio in over a
decade.” Last week, that ratio ramped up again to 8:1,
which is again historically extreme. Again, as Paul noted,
We are not certain how much weight to give these data,
but we are pretty certain that they imply nothing good for
the stock market.
Statements such as that are to be paid heed.
However, of even greater interest was Paul’s reminder
that the moon shall be inordinately close to the earth.
The average distance between the earth and the moon
is 384,400 kilometres. The closest in recent history… the
perihelion… that the moon has come to the earth is
363,100 kilometres; the farthest… its apehelion… is
406,700 kilometres. This month the moon shall move to
only 356,500 kilometres and as such the moon’s
gravitational effect upon the earth shall be, by definition,
larger and therefore greater than it has been at any point
in recent history. Perhaps this shall mean nothing.
Perhaps the moon’s perihelion this time shall pass with
nothing of consequence happening. Perihelions have
passed before with nothing of consequence, but we
would be wise to be prepared for something untoward
happening. Greater than normal tides; worse than
normal volcanic activity and perhaps even more frequent
or large earthquakes can and very well may develop.
We would be charlatans to predict that any of these shall
happen, but we would be remiss in not making note of
these events.
Question for the Wanniski crowd:
What did the Bernanke say ( or not say) that caused the downer day?
CW
Just remember to trade what you see and not what you think.....
I'm sticking to my call on Feb 22, that DOW topped @ 12,391 on Feb 18 2011 and thus signals the end of the rally.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com