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More Diffusion Confusion: Chicago PMI Refutes Every Other Piece Of Negative September Economic Data

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The market surged a few minutes prior to 9:45am, as the Chicago PMI was prereleased to subscribers. The number came in far stronger than expectations printing at 60.4 vs. expectation 55.5, compared to a previous read of 56.7. Even so the employment index declined to 53.4 vs. Prev. 55.5, while the New Orders component surged to 61.4 vs. Prev. 55.0, even as all other regional Fed surveys saw a decline here. Lastly, the prices paid also declined to 55.0 vs. 57.2 previously. All in all, nothing makes sense anymore, as data conflict one day to the next, which means the HFTs are sitting pretty and today's upward churning feedback loop is about to be unleashed. At the end of the day, all this "economic data" stuff is for amateurs. Today's POMO is starting in 25 minutes. Strap in.

 

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Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:54 | 615290 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Contradicts Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing report

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:48 | 615388 b_thunder
b_thunder's picture

Contradicts Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing manufactured report

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:37 | 615561 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

+1 The pump is well-primed and now at full pressure release.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:55 | 615292 Fourth Horseman...
Fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse's picture

Chicago PMI has been more optimistic than other PMIs lately because it captures CAT and the auto makers.  CAT's exports are booming and the autos, especially GM, have been building inventory.  

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:01 | 615308 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture


From WSJ 2 days ago: 

Manufacturing activity slowed in the Midwestern U.S. during August, as automakers chose to stop building up inventories, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.

The Chicago Fed’s Midwest Manufacturing Index dropped 1.4% to a seasonally-adjusted level 79.9 in August, from a downwardly revised 1.9% in July. The July index stands at 81.0, down from the original estimate of 81.4.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:56 | 615293 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Gold dipping gold bugs. May be an entry point...

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:01 | 615309 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

silver

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:17 | 615333 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

  yep, down she goes...

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:48 | 615385 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Gold and silver don't seem to have pullbacks any more just fairly honest swap spreads.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:20 | 615335 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Be cautious Goldbugs! XAU needs to break $200... it is forming up to be a resistance point. (w/ $210 the top from 2008) Your point of entry may/could be lower. Not saying for sure, just a heads up to the peeps... er, bugs.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:50 | 615395 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

The currency markets are melting down. There's too much velocity to rely on that.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:56 | 615294 RichyRich
RichyRich's picture

just in case someone else needs the numbers prior to the official release:

 

http://www.kingbiz.com/default.asp?nav#axzz111LUORFx

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:57 | 615297 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Irrelevant, it's a plausible reason to jack this fucker to 11,000 DOW.

Period.  Over and out!

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:23 | 615341 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Amen brother. GDP, Unemployment, The deficit , the charts do not mean shit. This is all you need to know.. The Fed runs the show. They buy stocks. The market goes higher because of the machine. Thats it. Until the fed can't do this anymore, I'm keeping my Google shares until they hit 3,000/ Share.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:59 | 615301 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

The number caps the best September in 25,933 days.

Mazel Tov, Ben shalom.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:01 | 615306 Iceobar
Iceobar's picture

EOM, EOQ, time to put the mini skirts on.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:02 | 615310 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Ah yes.....the end of quarter SOAAAARs across the finish line. This is good for the quarterly bonus pool, no ?? 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:03 | 615312 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Yep, they are working again, them numbers, hehehe! Until they don't! In the mean time I will sell my XXV into the close, take home a nice profit, the 3rd this week and have a nice day! We all knew this is coming, let's bitch but...make some money too, eh!? We know the game and know how to get them, little by little! Good Trading Boys!

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:08 | 615317 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Milliwalki PMI down at 50 frm 56 - hahahhhhhaaa

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:11 | 615321 99er
99er's picture

Chart: ES and ZB

Gee...who's selling the Long Bond?

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/09/es-and-zb_30.html

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:11 | 615322 T Rex
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:16 | 615328 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

pmi_val = std::max<float>(pmi_actual,static_cast<float>rand());

std::cout << "stock were up in early trade " << ((pmi_val>pmi_actual)?"due to good pmi numbers":"despite surprising below expectation pmi figures") << endl;

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:43 | 615377 luster
luster's picture

Yuck!  C++ io.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:22 | 615338 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

Well, if this is as good as the PPT and HFT assumes then no QE2 is needed....meaning?

"Heads HFT win, tail you lose"

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:23 | 615343 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Could be some logic in this.  Ag is going up with the rest of commodities.  Where else can you put money to work?  That means, Deere, Case, Cargill, and the rest of the mob will make a few bucks.  Regional arbitrage might work, for a while. 

That said, Illinois is still broke, and like California, they don't have a clue how to get out of the mess.  When government spending finally tops out, look out below.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:27 | 615351 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

Notice how the good news comes out of Chicago....

 

I am just saying.......

 

Just wait til Emannuel is running the show there....

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:30 | 615356 Phat Stax
Phat Stax's picture

Markets top on good news, not bad.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:36 | 615370 nopat
nopat's picture

Did anyone even bother to read the fucking bridge notes at the end?  Not exactly the song and praise for a growing economy.  To wit: ultra-lean employment to the point it is a drag on operations, lean raw materials inventory, price deflation (although they hinted food prices are set to rise), and scheduled price increases starting Oct 1 pulling orders forward.  To me, this has all the trappings of a one-month pop-up, so how the fuck did the market pull this as optimistic under any microscope?  Am I missing something here?

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:35 | 615557 sumo
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:45 | 615379 merehuman
merehuman's picture

.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:50 | 615386 web bot
web bot's picture

Economic data and the markets don't make any sense because we have complete market dislocation due to government and large bank interferance.

We don't have a "new normal", we have a "dislocated normal".

You heard the term here first.

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:56 | 615402 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

I note that this number came out of Chicago. Expect downward revisions...

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:21 | 615499 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Wow ZH goes MSM as Whalen mentions post on CNBS as Trish rubs one out....

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:31 | 615540 macholatte
macholatte's picture

Hopium....

Sat, 10/09/2010 - 09:36 | 637565 senthil456
senthil456's picture

There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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