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More Pain Ahead

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From www.thetrader.se

We passed the Greek Vote. Great news, but is the future all bright now? The Greek quick fix, is just a short term solution, so the country can survive and pay interest on it’s debt, for some months to come. The Greek mess, both Economics and Politics, is not solved at all. The total lack of growth, and the monstrous debt of Greece, will ultimately force the country to default on it’s debt. Expect some lucrative bargains in this autumn’s fire sale.

With the SPX reaching our short term target, 1305/1310, we expect a pause in this 4 day rally we have seen. As thetrader argued last week, SPX to rally and Charts that Matter,  we had reached good support levels in the markets, and “had” to bounce, especially with the Dumb Money Indicator showing a too pessimistic bias in the market.

Don’t forget though, Greece is not our biggest problem…..

The chart below shows OECD calculations of what it would take governments to reduce gross debt to 60% of GDP by 2026. This is around the level considered healthy and is also the ratio set by the widely ignored Maastricht agreement, which is meant to govern debt in the European Union. It is not pretty.

Chart, The Economist

 

 

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Thu, 06/30/2011 - 14:48 | 1416393 delivered
delivered's picture

Here's all the

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 14:46 | 1416387 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

China will buy an island, level it, build an air base and thus check mate the US carrier force in the Med.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 14:31 | 1416341 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Gold an silver are my market watch indicators...Period

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 11:06 | 1415551 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

70% of all greeks work for the governement.

You cut into that number and unemployment goes up, purchasing power goes down, tax receipts go down...

 

Sure they'll cut some things. But to little to late.

Only if they fired 40% of their government staff and get them to work in the private sector would save them.

But in Greece, there simply isn't a industrial base.

Most of it's income comes from tourisme, who don't like to come there anymore because of the discussions. Go figure...

Greece is fucked. The more the banks can get out, the better for the banks and the worse it will be for future Greek generations.

 

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 14:28 | 1416333 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

so what's going on in France Furry?  I don't have all this free airplane money lying around if you know what i mean...

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 11:18 | 1415582 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Greece can not repay its debts today or tomorrow.  The can is being kicked down the road, and the can is getting bigger...

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 11:23 | 1415601 Sinestar
Sinestar's picture

Can they kick it down the road after it's grown big enough to break their foot?

I seem to remember some ancient Greek postulation about an immoveable object meeting an irresistable force?

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 11:05 | 1415546 alexwest
alexwest's picture

HOW TO SPOT A SUCKER

ITS WHO USING CHART FROM ECONOMIST where deficit data
dont include interest on debt..

how nice.. so no matter how much debt is ,, jsut pretend it doesnt exist.. so interest...

i have better proposition.. lets PRETEND THERE'S NO DEBT AT ALL ... WOULD it be a nice...

well what i'd expect from ECONOMIST that regularly publish junk called BigMac index

off you go
alx

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:40 | 1415480 shazbotz
shazbotz's picture

just wait a couple hours till the parliament finishes voting on what chapters of the EU deal to accept.

The riots will be back in full force

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:11 | 1415345 White.Star.Line
White.Star.Line's picture

I am wondering if they might settle for my left nut or a pinky finger for some credit card debt once austerity is proposed to my household.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:33 | 1415440 Sinestar
Sinestar's picture

No doubt. The obvious thing for Greece to do is default. That's the only way out. The criminal politicians and banksters only have theirselves to blame for the impending haircut.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:42 | 1415486 White.Star.Line
White.Star.Line's picture

The people cannot vote to default, only the politcians paid-for by the usury clan. They will continue to vote for austerity measures until they rot in their chairs.

Take a haircut? They would rather mow down the citizens than face that!

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:48 | 1415494 Sinestar
Sinestar's picture

Perhaps so. Sad, but true. Most economists think default is inevitable though.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:23 | 1415137 web bot
web bot's picture

Just keep buying Silver...

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