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More Posturing Or Actual Threat? Iran Warns It Will Deliver A "Punch" To Stun The West On February 11
While Iran is second in posturing only to North Korea, adding a geopolitical threat to an already simmering liquidity fire is certainly never a good thing to a market engrossed by yet another short squeeze. The Telegraph reports that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has said that the country was set to deliver a "punch" that will stun world powers during this week's 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution.
"The Iranian nation, with its unity and God's grace, will punch the
arrogance (Western powers) on the 22nd of Bahman (February 11) in a way
that will leave them stunned," Khamenei, who is also Iran's
commander-in-chief, told a gathering of air force personnel.
The
country's top cleric was marking the occasion when Iran's air force
gave its support to revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a
key event which led to the toppling of the US-backed shah on February
11, 1979.
His comments came as Iran said it would begin to produce higher
enriched uranium from Tuesday, in defiance of Western powers trying to
ensure the country's nuclear drive is peaceful.
This year's
anniversary is expected to become a flashpoint between security forces
and supporters of opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi
Karroubi, who charge that the June re-election of President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad was rigged.
In the meantime quant programs continue to lap up any and all shares, with the only catalyst being Trichet's flight itinerary, which despite numerous claims to the contrary, has been assumed to indicate that moral hazard is now truly global and various rolling bailouts are set to start. We wish SkyNet the best of luck in their ongoing attemt to subjugate "efficient" capital markets on 0 nanosecond latency responses to the first letter of various thesis affirming headlines (now easily "readable" by machines).
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Wild Guess
Iran prices its oil in gold.
That or some other bombshell.
I agree.. or atleast some basket value of PMs
at least we know some people don't mean it to be an actual physical punch. the way i'm reading some of these headlines makes me laugh.
it's a metaphor people!
i thought they did already ... doesn't everybody ...
The real thing. I read about it in TIME magazine. Time has an amazing way of forcasting the future. The war will begin in March.
Patrick
The Queen likes to gloat early
I doubt it would take that long. If Iran sends missiles on Thursday, the US will most likely flatten the joint entirely.
Is it a Falcon Punch?
i'm thinking donkey punch
He better not punch too hard. Obama's looking for a bail due to plunging approval polls. He could be dusting off W's "smoking gun" playbook any day now.
Sadly, +10
BO would love a reason right now. Not that Iran is bluffing, but BO WILL call down.
Good Point. Especially since the current administration has begun to adopt Cheney's anti-terror policies.
http://online.wsj.com/articl/SB10001424052748704022804575042112185849380...
I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
No, no!
Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!
Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss
*Hic*...mmmmore....punch......pleeeeeease.....must.....keep.....party.....going.....
I lol'd, thank you!
Where the hell is Project Mayhem?? I would have thought he would have been all over this story.
Come to think of it, he hasn't posted in anything in awhile.
Undercover in Tehran
Looks like there is no more Project Mayhem... hasn't posted in weeks.
On a long enough timeline...
European Vacation
I will say I have seen more police/military prescence here in the Manhattan subways the past month on a level not seen ever. I noticed a similar jump in December prior to the airline attempt. There is evidently chatter
TY for the intel! My first thought is that of the days before 9/11, when FEMA was setting up for a "standard exercise" in NYC....in Manhatten....at the financial center....
the 'punch' is that they are going to squash the 3 million plus protesters expected to turn out
quality of reporting from Iran is always hyperbolic
no, they don't have nukes
Posturing
"People in the West forget that Iran continues to have the plutonium that the US delivered to Iran in the late 1960s for this reactor in Tehran that is under IAEA safeguards. Iran's record, which shows it has not misused this ... is under appreciated," the Tehran expert said.
Indeed, Tehran has been in possession of weapons-capable resources for many years without any report of diversion to weapons purposes, so why is there concern now? The answer may lie less with Iran's nuclear intentions but with a US desire for power projection in the Middle East and Persian Gulf.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LB09Ak01.html
Well, the opposition is set to erupt on thu, no more mercy. They're tired of it. Coincidentally, Bahman means avalanche
Speculation about what, if anything, Iran will announce during its Festival Day says nothing whatever about Iran, and only discloses the perspective of the persons posting such speculation.
As Iran has stated over and over and over and over, again, its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. Accordingly, it is here speculated that Iran's announcement will be one that will further the ideal of world peace and world cooperation.
For those who may have taken a look at the content of Iran's pronouncements, it seems fairly clear that they consistently speak out for peace and cooperation and for an end to Western hegemony, arrogance and dominance.
Do posters agree?
I think you can find the Iranians saying whatever you want them to say by selective quotation.
Want them to be terrorist war mongers? There are plenty of quotes for that. Want them to be peaceful misunderstood Persians? Plenty of quotes for that too (only if you omit the prior set of quotes.)
This isn't unique to Iran, although their warmongering quotes are far off the deep end somewhere just shy of North Korea.
Certainly, Iran could be even more violent than it is, but it's not exactly Sweden.
is there an app for that?
Ah, the voice of moderation. Thank you for your comment. It has been several centuries since Iran attacked another country, so they may not be that far removed from being like Sweden.
Also, here's the quote that apparently gave rise to the translation using the word "punch." Mind you, "telling blow" can, in fact, give rise to the appearance of a threat. I admit that:
'Iran will deliver telling blow to global powers on Feb. 11'
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says the nation will deliver a harsh blow to the "global arrogance" on this year's anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.
"The Islamic Revolution opened a window to liberty for the human race, which was trapped in the dead ends of materialism," Ahmadinejad said during a cabinet meeting on Sunday.
"If the Islamic Revolution had not occurred, liberalism and Marxism would have crushed all human dignity in their power-seeking and money-grubbing claws. Nothing would have remained of human and spiritual principles," he added.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=117545§ionid=351020101
However, when the headline is read in conjunction with the actual quote, it seems to me that the overall statement references a clash of ideas or of ideologies. Thus, the issue is one of dialectics, rather than war mongering as I see it.
Others may disagree, of course.
"Others may disagree" ...and they do. You are really grasping at straws. Obviously it's an ideological clash, but equally obvious is that Iran would support their power base with whatever means they can muster. More importantly, however, they have a revolt seething, Obama is losing his grip, and Isreal would love to lob a few missle's at Iran. It's a win-win-win for the power brokers - let the games begin.
You seem to be an admirer of Iran. I am simply someone trying to see what it really is, without the fog and deception of the press and politics.
Perhaps Iran isn't developing nuclear weapons; I don't know. Maybe it's not quite the aggressor that it has been portrayed to be. Certainly, it is in a rough neighborhood. But there are some highly distasteful things that today's Iran certainly is. A place where relatively mild dissent is crushed violently, with organized and officially endorsed raping of some of the protestors. A place where teenage boys are executed for alleged homosexual actions. A place where unruly girls are occasionally executed for disrupting the conservative social view. A place where, despite the country having a Jewish population (well tolerated from what I understand), the leader of the nation vows to destroy Israel, and claims the Holocaust never happened.
I do not wish to tar Iran with false accusations, but neither do I wish to ignore its demonstrable crimes.
Ahmadinejad never said 'Destroy Isreal'.
He said 'Destroy the ZIONISTS'.
Big difference.
He talked about wiping Israel from the map, Juan Cole and similar imbeciles protestations to the contrary.
Quit being a useful idiot for a totalitarian nutjob like Ahmadinejad.
"He talked about wiping Israel from the map,"
he never said that. that was the interpretation that the western media gave to discredit him.
look up his speech on utube.
Don't be a punk--he said they'd wipe Israel off the map. Off the map, get it?
Yeah sure, Iran hasn't attacked anyone.
Except through its Hezbollah proxy, of course, in Lebanon, Israel, and South America.
Has Iran ever invaded another country? With the exception of the war with Iraq, where they most likely crossed into Iraq, have they ever launched an invasion??? Anywhere?
Contrast to Israel or the US .... either directly or indirectly ( contras etc )
Sure, calling for the total destruction of Israel is very peaceful, on the part of Iran.
Sure, calling for the total destruction of Israel is very peaceful, on the part of Iran.
Perhpas Israel should launch yet another pre-emptive strike..
You know, nothing quiets loud mouth like a 500 lb bomb.
In other news, has anyone finally found out who shorted airlines stock in the days leading up to 9/11? Or is that topic still verboten?
Background: http://khordaad88.com/?p=1097#more-1097 . There's going to be major domestic unrest in Iran on the 11th, which probably helps to explain why the regime chose to stage an international provocation on that day.
Here's what I guess might happen, in rough order of increasing drama and decreasing likelihood:
Some kind of announcement about the amount of uranium reprocessed.
An ICBM test launch.
A nuclear test.
Some foreign terror incident or military adventure.
Iran? No Master, all Bates.
Yeah, they need somebody like me to get them on track.
Why, if the gold bitchez crowd had listened to me, they wouldn't be down on their investments.
Now it's time for Iran to get some MB advice to right their erroneous ways.
Au @ $1076. Starting DCAvging in at $400.
Down???
I'm hoping they have their *own* plans for a nuclear reactor.
Only one punch will satisfy. They must set off
their cut&paste AQ Kahn Syrian North Korean
newkyouler bomb. Some scientists better hope
it goes off and doesn't fizzle - if it doesn't
then some scientists will have a very bad day.
It will need to leave an unquestioned seismic
signature otherwise it will be considered yet
another photo-shopped missile launch.
The punch of the detonation will be to lay bare
the Israeli threat, to lay bare the threats of
the west, and to reveal to the other middle
eastern powers their dire position.
It will be crunch time for the soccer moms, both
male and female.
I agree with you...
"Iran does have nuclear weapons. Of course, these are non-strategic nuclear weapons. I mean these are not ICBMs with a range of more than 5,500 kilometers and more. But as a military man, I see no danger of aggression against Russia by Iran. As for the danger of Iran's attack on the United States, the danger is zero."
-- General Yuri Baluyevsky, May 2002
Have you seen the escalation in the Persian Gulf over the last few weeks? Let's get real here.
Yawn...just play the markets. Long or short, only price pays.
With the price of oil dropping it makes sense for the powers that be in the Mideast to start wagging the dog a bit. At least that's how I'm positioned. It's like Apple threatening to cut off the supply of iPhones. Horrors.
This was also posted on Clusterstock. I'll paraphrase a couple of really good comments I saw:
1. Iran disband it's theocracy and calls for free and fair democratic elections
2. Iran announces that 25% of its oil output will go to China for the next 20 years in exchange for their $2T reserves. Iran becomes Americas largest creditor.
Either of these would sure stun the West.
or a nuke in space
You must mean 250% right?
Thats just bad math.
man i hope he sends a secret service guy who punches obama in the nuts
Obama doesn't have any balls. How could anyone punch them?
The last time I was stunned by a punch was in 1972, at a party, when someone put LSD into the mix. I sure hope these idiots are not going to the Daytona 500 party this weekend.
I mean, that is what they mean by a punch that will stun the world powers isn't it?
LOL. I bet that was a fun night. Did you at least know that it was there once you started tripping?
Obama doesn't have nuts. Michele does.
Ohhh the waiting! The secrecy! What could it be?
http://lh3.ggpht.com/_dlkAw43cLC0/SSiMKSfZ1nI/AAAAAAAABBA/kRtH2nDiZPc/s8...
yawn.
maybe they will give us some punch...as in fruit punch.
Market just reversed to the upside. Did someone just buy all the SPYs again lol
They also announced a uranium negotiation/deal (sort of) with Brazil which was promptly denied by Brazilian authorities. The denial wasn't very convincing though.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100203-719352.html?mod=WSJ_latesth...
Llehman had tons of yellow cake uranium on it's balance sheet when it imploded. LOL
maybe this is why the large hadron collider will be going on half power. damage control.
Maybe they're gonna buy California?
Lady GaGa in a Burka?
Don't think so....
How would you be able to tell?
OK, bad example.
Playboy bunnies in Burka's, that I could tell....
This is the same country that had its hands full fighting the mighty Iraqi army (pre-daisy cutters). Be afraid. Be very afraid. GMAFB.
I predict the opening of a line of Iranian thrift superstores to compete with Walmart and satisfy our passion for quality goods at low, low prices. That will be a punch the West will not soon forget.
Iran is thinking of Hawaiian Punch. Great drink but way too many calories.
Admuhjiminabadad going to convert to Judaism, marry Fran Drescher, raise orthodontist jewish children..
Let's accept the brilliance of Desert Storm, the economy was in collapse, Bush was fighting with Democrats, and his own party. There was no way he could have pushed through a fiscal stimulus package, so he created a man made disaster, fiscal stimulus by executive decree. The stock market went from 6000 to 14000 in a few years. I mean that was f**king brilliant. Now Iran is an even bigger plum because reparations and consolidation of power will a lot easier. Iran has nuclear energy, (and don't worry our flyboys won't touch those plants one bit) which means all that oil heads out to the west. With US boots on the ground in Afghanistan, and in Iraq, Gen Betrayus only has to give the word, and the biggest pincer movement in history will lay waste to the remnants of the Persian Empire. HC is on aboard, she was singing a duet with McCain, 'bomb, bomb, bomb Iran'.Afterwards she gets Geithners job (as a reward for keeping the populist anger down to mere rhetoric, and not action, and a future seat on the board at GS ( because they will be shorting Iran all the way to the bank). There's nothing like a fit of populist anger to distract the American press away from your policy failures.
I have always wondered what kept Bush from going through with it? Maybe he decided to leave something for the next guy.
And if you're short the market when the bombs fall, baby you don't want to be.
ok, but Magog had the doelar...BO does not. If he tries for a war the Doe will get smashed in the headlights of an M1 Abrahms. However, I would not put anything ahead of the military industrial comlex. Those guys are the biggest idiots around...you too CIA!
Own bullion either way.
Never without the plug for the gold bitchez!
No matter what happens, buy gold until you're out of money.
Buy housing too!
I seem to remember reading a military blog some time ago where a strategist envisioned a American armoured thrust into Iran from Iraq and it getting bogged down somewhere near the Caspian because of long supply lines and limited reserves.Iran is a big country with rough terrain and land forces that are trained to fight a asymmetric war.The shock of fighting againist motivated aggressive fighters may be too much for soldiers who believed that their army was invincible such as what happened to the Isrealis in lebenon a few years ago.Remember these guys have been watching how western forces have fought battles since 1991 and they will not play to their enemys strength the way Saddam did in 1990 ,they have their own agenda.
People have to understand that the US military may have a technological advantage but the mass of the Armed forces have been seriously degraded since the end of the cold war.
It has no reserves to fight multiple front battles since the above scenario would invite the Chinese and their North Korean allies to engage in battle on both the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan.
The US navy would have to take up most of the slack as the bulk of the land forces would already be committed.The anti -submarine component of the navy has been run down rapidly since it has been reconfigured to fight expeditionary war against inferior opponents and even a few Russian hunter killers and Chinese diesel subs in inshore waters would do serious damage.
America has nearly always fought wars where its supply was secure and has been piss poor without massive resupply - its tooth to tail ratio is very unbalanced so when you cut into its tail it will not function.
The fundamental strategic mistake of deploying all of its land forces would have been made. Any chess player would be wary of committing all of his pawns as it would force his queen and rooks into the battle and once the Queen is deployed you can kiss goodbye to any future civilisation for a long long time.
In short America needs the draft in order to win wars without the use of a few supers as that would leave the Genie out of the bottle and he won't want to go back in.
Ok, but now lets re fight the war without a single US soldier moving an inch.
Day One first four hours : Cruise Missiles and Predators eliminate the radar (which is two levesl down from the most advanced Russian radar destroyed in Syria two years ago)
Day One second two hours: Cruise missiles destroy all known oil and gas terminals, pielines, tank farms and fields
Day One: 6Am Announcement by Sunni Saudi that they will raise output by Irans total for two years. Kuwait follows.
Day One 8Am: Cruise Missiles and B52's take out electricity and bridges into Tehran and eliminate all docks on the Straights of Hormuz
Day One: 830Am: Iraq announces it will allow even more investments by Oil Companies. CEO's line up to fly to Baghdad
Day One 9Am: Russia protests
Day One 9:30AM: China protests
Day One: 10 Am: Israeli airforce mops up targeting the corporate holdings of the IRGC
Day One: 10:30Am: Obama announces he will be glad to talk to a "representative cross section of Iranian leaders who were not already in the government"
Day One 12PM: Obama indicates that based on a conference call with Iranian leaders prepared to give new "Hope" to Iran he will ask Congress to announce a new Marshall Plan for Iran
Day One 2PM: CEO of Exxon and Chevron announce $100B contract to modernize Iran's oil industry
Day One 2:30PM: Obama nominated for second Nobel Prize
Day One 2:45 Dollar and Treasuries auctions explode as all known money flocks to the winner
Day One 3PM: ZH all pissed off because gold did not break $1500
Day Two: Flights from Los Angeles to Zurich overbooked as "Persians" head back to Tehran
My point in that fantasy above is that our military is not stupid and supply realities is one of the first things they will design around. the accuracy and power of the airforce in the decade since you last saw it in 2002 and the two decades since Gulf War 1
Iran is surrounded by airbases in Turkey, Afghan, Diego Garcia, Saudi, Jordan, Eygpt, Pakistan, several Stans, Kuwait and aircraft carriers and throughout Iraq.
They are not in a good place and they do not have a good set of cards to play.
Yes there will be terroristic blowback from them down the road...but the weight and the size of the damage and likely regime change is like 80 to 1.
Why would we ever take land in Iran to win? Win does not mean the flag in Tehran..it means the economic destruction of the IRGC (of which Ama Dinner Jacket is the nominal CEO passing out the vig)
Anyway...just another way to look at what may happen. Neither of us knows and it being war...it will not be as planned
True enough neither of us know and as you said a plan does not often survive contact with the enemy.
If I was a betting man I would still bet that USA would win a conflict - but not my money on US paper
What I was trying to drive at is there seems a certain overconfidence within certain western military circles that opponents will play a predictable game where technology is the most vital component - the concept of mass seems to have gone from western military thought.
China will play to its strengths until it has bridged the technology gap and may also try to neutralise your advantage through simple but effective means that we may not be aware of.
Consider the tactics of Hezbollah forces in 2006 - they adapted to their foes strengths and exploited its weakness - the first American gulf war was a shock to other militaries around the world and the acceptance of inherent weakness can be trans formative to the doctrine of armed forces - look no further then the conflict in Western Europe during 1940 where the wehrmacht had a numerical inferiority but adjusted their war plan accordingly
Good points Dork of Cork.
I do think the shock of GWI was significant to other nations but they cannot catch up and their spending relative to ours had remained stable since that time.
One way both of our points can be merged into one "doctrine" (if you will) is through the idea that our technology pushes us into only having that advantage in really more all out conflicts...where massive air firepower brought against the economic infrastructure of an enemy is justified and proportional....and brings us closer to equally matched when we are on the ground and far from having a good supply line.
In sum, we are getting better at winning big all out firefights and others are creeping closer to even odds in small low intensity or contained firefights.
Anyway...lets hope we have less of each kind and that one side benefit of global economic constraints is everyone retracting their horns for awhile
First, for anyone who does not know, the mullahs are just as bad as achmadeemajawd. The "Green" revolution would have brought havoc to the country. Those bastards sent children to fight the Iraq war. They are murderers. Not that achmadeemajawd is much better, he does think he talks to God. Reminds me of the time W. said he talked to God....
Anywho, I bet it is a bluff. However, if they do have something up their sleeve (like nude photos of Michelle and Bernanke) then look for a massive retaliation. Like a war, or a bank holiday.
This is my bet; bank holiday Feb 12th...friday would be the most optimal day for one anyway.
Bye Bye Solar Doelarr!
Iran will release a "Lost" final season spoiler video on YouTube.
hopefully he will take out Goldman sachs
It's the bomb people! Iran has nukes.
well lets hope its aimed right at wall street
I've got it! He's got Barky's real birth certificate!
As between and amongst the predictions thus far posted, the birth certificate one is the odds on favorite! :-)
Nah, I'm going with the release of Star Wars Episode VII.
+1
I hear Amadinerjacket got lamb kabobs included in the new reserve currency basket. Ka-Pow.
Remember, this guy thinks he's the 12th imam...I don't think there's actually going to be much of anything happen or be said. Whatever happens is going to be more like the introduction of the Segway....
That whole region is led by fools who suffer from serious delusions of grandeur; they threaten and threaten but never really back it up. The only ones who actually deliver pain on any sort of scale are smart enough to sit quietly until the trigger is pulled. Then they start yapping and nothing further comes of it.
This is hot air; on Friday everybody will be saying "that was it?" Some punch...
+1 on the intro of the Segway. I have a feeling that event will actually seem fairly significant compared to the Iranian announcement.
My guess is it will have to do with energy. Few rumors going around that the Chinese or Indians (or both) have come up with something nifty and the US ain't gettin' none. Given we just sold a few billion worth of arms to the Taiwanese, I'm guessing China is looking at Iran as a proxy to give us the big middle finger.
Or it could just be one in a series of 'mistranslations' in the anglo media. After all most of our reporters and 'sources' never went to the school for kids who can't read farsi good...
How Do You Say "Punch" In Chinese?
“Just like two people rowing a boat, if the United States first throws the strokes into chaos, then so must we.” Luo said Beijing could “attack by oblique means and stealthy feints” “For example, we could sanction them using economic means, such as dumping some U.S. government bonds,” Luo said.
http://ransquawk.com/articles/40362
I'll guess
long range missle test into English Channel
or
some sort of spilling the beans on TPTB
I hope it's the latter. Probably be neither.
Or nuke the commie b'stards (the USA of course.... which communist country do you think I meant?)
This is a HORRIBLE translation of the original Persian. The phrase, interpreted as "punch arrogance," is very nuanced in the original and means no such thing. The proper translation is "We are prepared to send the inhabitants of western nations flowers using our Molnar class-action proceeds from 1-800-FLOWERS.COM."
Ah, I thank you... and since the 'real' translation got into the market, it surged because they had misinterpreted the words, they send their thank you.
I don't want my kids to go to war. I figure that's where we are headed and it brings tears to my eyes. War solves so many problems for the folks in power. Think about it, the draft would solve the unemployment problem of the 18 - 29 year olds. With them off to boot-camp the jobs that come about because of the war goes to the unemployed boomers.
ETC.
ETC.
It's all bull -- xhit. Iran does not threaten us or anyone else. WE HAVE ALL THE BULLETS!!!! AND WE HAVE THE BIGGEST BULLET OF THEM ALL -- NUKES But, a country, in order to survive, needs war - it part of our F'in DNA.
J.B. Books
Nothing more useless than an unloaded gun, except maybe a loaded gun you won't use.
Our empty-suit Pretendident wouldn't authorize nukes even if the mushroom clouds obscured the remnants of NYC....he'd be on the phone apologizing.
The Krazy Kids over in the desert, now that's another matter...
Enriching uranium to "weapons grade" is one thing but "weaponizing" it beyond that is a completely different matter. They are years away from "weaponizing".
LSD---I think the poster hit the nail on the head---that's what Ahnamenajad (who cares on the spelling..I spell like he speaks!) has been on virtually every time he appears in the press.
Well, posters, it's now Thursday, so let's at least take a look at what Iran could have meant by the "punch" interpretation.
On Iran's press tv website, there are the following stories:
Iran rejects US offer over medical isotopes
EU echoes US threats of sanctions against Iran
'Iran develops system to distract missiles'
Millions of Iranians mark victory of Islamic Revolution
Ahmadinejad unveils electric Samand
And, to be sure, there was also this:
Ahmadinejad says Israel inching toward annihilation
However, there was also this:
Iran's inflation rate falls to 12.2 percent
The UK Telegraph which I think was the source of the "punch" article is referring to the announcement of delivery of 20% enriched uranium as the big "punch."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/7213109/Iran-Mahmoud-Ahmadinejad-defies-world-over-uranium-enrichment.html
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