Morgan Stanley Launches Fed Frontrunning Toolbox, Asks What The End Of QE2 Will Look Like For Rates

Tyler Durden's picture




 
0
Your rating: None
 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sun, 03/06/2011 - 13:07 | 1023604 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

You already know my opinion about this. QE3 is already underway. This time Oil Exporters step in and buy US Ponzi products with fiatcons given to them by oil thirsty pigs.

This cannot last. There is no equilibrium anymore. Or should I say disequilibrium has become obvious.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 13:25 | 1023642 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

There is always equilibrium , your timescale is just off. Wait.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 13:26 | 1023644 Orly
Orly's picture

Important Fed Board members are coming out strongly against any further QEasing.

I think it's a done deal.  Once everyone figures it out, get long USDJPY and USDCHF.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 13:29 | 1023652 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Even that odious fat smug little fuck Meyers was of the opinion QE3 wasnt needed. Although i'd sooner trust Bernie Madoff than any former fed member. Especially that prick.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 14:55 | 1023847 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

You shouldn't hold back. Say what you mean.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 19:51 | 1024544 strannick
strannick's picture

Im still trying to parse your meaning from your opaque euphemisistic diplomat-speak 

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 18:55 | 1024428 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

That is an interesting opinion in the context of trading price, Orly. Tnx for putting out there to read.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 13:36 | 1023668 Clampit
Clampit's picture

My biggest question about QE2: how will we know it's ended? Sure there will be some announcement, probably followed by updating of metrics, but given the current power structure I don't see anywhere close to enough accountability and audibility to take the data seriously.

My prediction? The "end" of QE2 magically turns out to be no big deal, and certainly won't precipitate any selloff.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 21:41 | 1024830 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

When the Fed Audit is made public, right after Hell freezes over.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 13:46 | 1023693 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

They will never stop QE.  They might stop telling the public about it.  But the Fed will continue buying Treasuries.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 14:05 | 1023729 saltine
saltine's picture

If QE ends, US interest rates increase. Then US equities and residential real estate tank. Precious metals correct significantly.

For the life of me, I can't see that happening 15 months before the US elections.

I had dinner last night with a guy who is an analyst for a US based international firm that invests pension and similar funds in large commercial real estate ventures. His firm has accepted as fact that QE is ending.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 14:09 | 1023741 dcb
dcb's picture

I DON'T BUY THIS AT ALL!!!

take away the fed induced liquidity and asset prices drop, near term inflation elevated, long bond yields drop in value.

look at interest rates in Japn,

The net effect of Qe has been to raise interst rates, now lower them and multiple ZH articles have pointed out that the whole rationale for Qe is flawed based on this fact.

 

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 17:59 | 1024317 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Stop disturbing the herd.

Afterall the overtly obvious always works in calling the markets. Frightening about 100,000 -5 the other side vs this.

Can toss in never ending cheap ass capacity from the Chinese.

 

Where is that all inclusive chart of QE and everything known to man?

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 14:33 | 1023787 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

The end of QE. Let's see, commodities tank 50%, DX surges to 90, yields on treasuries head for zero. All good from the Fed's perspective. The cost? Hedgies and pension funds get kicked in the balls and their portfolios are 30% off the highs. Win-win!

Bernanke is a hero again, gasoline is $1.75 a gallon, 30-year mortgages are 4%. He bought Obama another two years, maybe even a reelection. Extend, pretend.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 15:12 | 1023879 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Given the current ramp job in equities, 30% down will still leave the SPX around 1000, a far cry above the day of the devil two years ago.

Maybe we'll see Tupper on CNBC again telling everyone to go short!

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 15:28 | 1023912 Orly
Orly's picture

That's exactly what I have been thinking.  The Bernank's actual target was 1050, so they can overshoot to make the market appear to be cratering when it is actually well beyond where they need it to be.

I told you these guys were really, really bright.  No one believed.

Believe it now?

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 15:46 | 1023963 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Yep.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 15:44 | 1023961 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Rogerwilco nails it.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 16:09 | 1024046 DR
DR's picture

Yea, everyone is waiting to move some of their "risk on" gains into treasuries after QE2. This will put a damper on yields rising too much.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 17:34 | 1024270 malikai
malikai's picture

So what happens to budget deficits then? Uness everyone goes mad on a treasury binge rates are due to soar. How will that look politically during an election cycle? What about the guaranteed recession that will then be blamed on Obama?

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 14:39 | 1023811 jimcg
jimcg's picture

My guess is that clients paid by the word, graphs were additional.

J

 

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 16:07 | 1024039 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Sweet...huge correction in equities AND precious metals means I can finally close my short positions, double down on gold and silver and have plenty of cash left over for the coming hyper-inflationary event....

That event will be congress taking over the printing presses from the Fed.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 17:21 | 1024244 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

They have been QEing all along. The only difference now is that it is blatant QEing.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 18:42 | 1024407 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

a "collapse in equities" is a beginning not an end to a crisis.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 19:53 | 1024550 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Long term charts are worthless. It's real TIME.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 20:39 | 1024696 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

"All good from the fed's perspective" ???

are you Sheening?

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 00:58 | 1025315 JGambolputty
JGambolputty's picture

Bernanke, et al, 2004: "[I]t is crucial that the

central bank’s promises to maintain some part of its quantitative easing as the economy recovers be perceived as credible by the public."

QE2 will be followed by a roll-over period, just as QE1 was.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 20:35 | 1028027 lsjcma
lsjcma's picture

To wear the mermaid wedding dresses could be called the dream of every woman. I think whoever you are, to get married with the man your love is a holy thing. And we all firmly believe that marriage will not kill your love, on the contrary, wedding dress is just the beginning. So the bridesmaid Dresses chooses the wedding dresses carefully. Naturally, they want to become the most beautiful bridesmaid dresses and the unique sheath wedding dresses. The dresses in our online column wedding dresses store are their best choices.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!