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Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach: "A Rude Awakening"
The Vice Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia destroys any last germinating green shoots.
"Green shoots are a very simplistic way to look at the world." Why is it no surprise that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke came up with it.
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"Green shoots"? Oh man, I've had it wrong this whole time! You know how you hear something wrong and you think that's the right way until someone tells you all like "Dude, that is NOT how you say it!"
All this time, I thought it was "green shits".
[head desk]
cougar
/faceslap
"Every body knows the dice are loaded"
"Every body knows the game is fixed"
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,,1560+chart,00.html?symb=YM&month=U&...
Ok, if I hear one more Green Shoots joke/pun, including but not limited to:
Green Sharts, Green Shits, Brown Shoots, Black Shoots, Poop Shoots or Crispy Shoots,
I'm going to pinch a loaf and name it Ben Bernanke.
"High frequency dart throwers" awesome.
I have loved this man for so long, you can always depend on the truth out of his mouth.
He won't be around long at MS. They will cut him loose and replace with someone on par this Abby Cohen from GS in terms of bullish outlook.
He's been there a long time and always disputing 'conventional wisdom'. He's one of their biggest and best assets.
That's correct...he is an asset to MS - "when Roach speaks, people listen." He's a great voice of reason.
It wouldn't surprise me if MS took the contrarian approach and tried to be the "anti-GS". They may just be big enough and have enough pull to wake up the echos, and ultimately be the commercial voice needed to bring this to the forefront.
he is also promoting "borrowing and spending" in america. He together nouriel roubini, peter morici, paul gruman, meredith whitney, believe that we can continue keeping Status Quo for another 5 years by borrowing money from china, japan, etc to buy their products. Only peter schiff recomends that we have produce out of this depression which makes solid sense. I don't know where are those people, so-called dr. economist, get their phd from. yet, media gives them lots of coverage and credit.
he's like the redneck ranter except in a suit.
"ain't no green F#ckin' shoots!!"
Tyler, your recent posts are decidedly deflationary.
And? You're not one of those hyper-inflationists are you?
Please do the math.
you can have deflation and price appreciation at the same time, just in different assets. we have deflation here in terms of housing and asset values (natural consequence of credit deflation). we have inflation here in inflated commodities and equities. goes to show that the fed can't stop credit deflation by printing money.
Err you cannot have house price deflation and asset price deflation and equity price inflation. That is what equity is. Unless your term "asset prices" relates to 2nd hand Ford Mustangs. What do you think an equity is?
Commodities are going through a leveraged trade against dollar weakness. Once the horders stop and realise theres no pent up demand in the economy that particular bubble bursts. Commodities are being used as a proxy store of value. We are swimming in oil. Theres no need to build new residential or commerical real estate because we are swimming in that. The primary trend will reassert itself once the performance chasing mutual fund monkeys and too big to fail institutions take a chill pill. And then the pendulum swings viciously.
You just contradicted yourself.
I expect a currency crash which will result in a very large reduction in the purchasing power of USD. I expect a chunk of this to happen initially in a step-wise fashion, over a period of hours, and then to continue slowly over a period of years.
I believe this because I have done the math; that is, the math related to tax receipts and "mandatory" expenditures for the U.S. dot gov. We are already borrowing just to maintain mandatory expenditures (tax receipts line has already crossed under mandatory expenditures line), and if there is no pickup in economic activity we will need to keep increasing borrowing forever. This of course does not work.
What do you think will happen? Congressional austerity budget? Or maybe a successful reflation? Do you understand how laughable those notions are?
"Take the blue pill, not the red pill" - Barack Obama
seriously, he just said that at his press conference
lol
LOL ! So he just wants us to be deluded fly in the ointment, as usual.
Very appropriate, since he wants to create an alternate reality for all US Citizens. Things are how the Administration says they are... ignore reality... now, we're going to need your body to power our new power plants. Enjoy the matrix.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNLp0GRPJt4
Wow!, finally an IB Guy who tells it like he sees it. Who let him out of the cage? I guess the Asians will not put up with the Bull Shit we are presented with.
Glad to see something credible.
He's always been a voice of reason and has been around awhile, but you won't find BO looking for advice from good people like Roach. Instead, BO looks to the wisdom of Satan's right hand man - Larry Summers (who apparently has silenced the Volcker prop-up in the corner of the room).
BO is the ultimate leader to the new world order which is a GROUPTHINKTHINKTANK for the financial-government complex that now runs all policy for both political parties and all elected officials minus a few good people in the House of Representatives.
Respectful journalists asking questions i actually care about, letting the guest finish his thoughts, this is CNBC ?
Do they purposefully dumb down CNBC America for their ADD, Adderall addicted American viewers? Or perhaps the fault lies in the dumbed down pseudo journalists that seem to staff CNBC in the USA?
"Do they purposefully dumb down CNBC America for their ADD, Adderall addicted American viewers? Or perhaps the fault lies in the dumbed down pseudo journalists that seem to staff CNBC in the USA?"
You can't have one without the other.
wallstreet cronies on CNBC USA.
I like Worldwide Exchange, though, and when Squakbox starts, what a very disappointing tv moment.
This TV only shows CNBC *World*, Sports, and Fight Club on AMC (no more Arrested Development on HDNet it seems). When the Squawking starts, it's time to hit the shower and go to work.
It's like having the remedial class bullies kick the class doors in and start breaking the science projects and tearing up the notebooks of the smart kids in school. Starting at six, CNBC is run by thugs. Exception to Cashin and Faber and Rick in Chicago.
CNBC World (and unfettered high definition channels) alone justify jumping through some hoops to get Dish Network or Directv here in Canada. CRTC be damned.
The CNBC domestic feed has been almost wholly unwatchable for over a year now... well, unwatchable in the sense that when I start swearing at the commentators, I need a "time out".
business as usual, HFT's, PPT, the works. ah well, plus ca change c'est le meme chose.
lmao....whatever his other merits or demerits may be he certainly called crap on crap in this video....he had no patience for the little boy mentality that sees "green shoots" in sporadic encouraging data when there is an avalanche of mud and snow hanging overhead and the fat lady has only cleared her voice.
tyler, if you're getting DMCAs anyway, could you consider moving the videos somewhere else? the CNBC player doesn't work for me.
Negative Negative Negative. What's up with all the reality? I can not believe the producer didn't go to commercial break. Shame on CNBC for allowing such an honest, accurate opinion. Doesn't he have anything to sell?
It's late in the night or early in the day when the aholes in NJ have retired to their incestuous life with the gangbanging banksters.
marla should be spinning tonight. zero "intelligence" was holding their breath till being mentioned on cnbc. allow project mayhem to begin correctly!
where the hell is the capcha?
Disabled to allow CNBC replies.
It's there. You just only have to do it once.
Helena Bohem definitely is although kind of detached.
Yes, please do.
I laughed out loud a number of times listening to all the complaints (sorry folks) --besides, just that little bit of irritation is probably a good thing for one's neurons.
Agrotera, ADD girl.
What is "project mayhem"?
And how can I sign up?
PS: I miss CAPCHA...
There were some kids "performing" Project Mayhem at a starbucks that got busted. We live in the matrix, not the real world.
Watch "Fight Club."
i say good riddance to capcha
i've seen all the negative i care to
It served its purpose - to remind all commentators that while adding two negative numbers still results in a negative number, multiplying them results in a positive number. And now we understand how the banks reported profits this year.
double high five for that truism Gilgamesh!
off topic a bit, but those phucks bb&t, state street, and usb just bought back their TARP warrants at what appears to be a pretty shitty deal for the us taxpayer. surprise, surprise. i feel like that wall st pro guy in the video.
geithner is an absolute joke
For ten lousy bucks a "shark" is killed on the mean streets of downtown Miami - http://www4.wsvn.com/news/articles/local/MI126520/
correct link (not for the faint of heart) http://video.ap.org/?f=1138934&pid=9pwPgMbwEHhv1SGuKmzVQSJM6oA1wTT3
burn em down, at leats someone tells it like it is.
nice change to the logo ZI
obviously a rip-off of Starbucks "zero brand" strategy
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/22/globalisation-local-...
"zero brand" I like that
Watch Bernanke get his ass kicked. Go Grayson!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0NYBTkE1yQ&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eblack...
This post is off topic, but I have read many comments here concerning those that rant endlessly on the blogs and never get out of the basement to do anything.
Please consider participating in a march on Washington, DC this September -
www.912dc.org
It's worth everything for our voices to be heard. They may label it a "tea party" but maybe it will morph into something else.
The first rule...
I know, it won't be broken again.
CNBC vid isn't workin.. Only for me?
Never mind. Workin
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_...
Nearly 500,000 novice Chinese investors open trading accounts in under a week, enticed by soaring Shanghai stocks
And in totally unrelated news, some big Chinese company (forgot the name when I saw it) tonight named Goldman as their IPO bookrunner.
Boy, the way all these things are coming together - I smell absolutely no sign of a top or bubble. Let's see, what was the name of that Chinese company that sells frozen hybrid sheep semen? That seems like a can't lose investment!
marla should have spun tonight based on ur breakthrough. have u ever heard a death rattle?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EHSI#chart5:symbol=^hsi;range=1y;compare=^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
china
This dude is MS's version of Rosenberg. Old and wise and shipped off soon. He's definately not on the same page as everyone else. He should really get with the game.
Okay, one more time: he has been around awhile, he hasn't been on the same page for quite some time, he is the game and nobody is shipping him off soon
If Green Shoots does he aim?
"Unfortunate, but predictable pains coming down the road" ~Amen. And that comes from a Banker. Wtf?
Btw... Love the new graphic
would have loved to listen to the rest of his comments on Japan ,, discussing that later.
mr. roach has been speaking this truth, for a very longtime..i think he invented the term unbalanced economy's ot i cannot believe anyone watches tv anymore...
At the risk of being hypocritical, I wish more folks posting under 'Anonymous' would get a name. One can tell that some Anonymous posters repeat, and among those who do, many have good points to make. Unfortunately, separating the wheat from the chaff is not easy when hundreds post under the same Anonymous handle. Something is lost when this occurs.
I, too, prefer anonymity right now, as some personal details will emerge. I am a retired WS trader who took his winnings and moved on for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that I lack a sufficient level of greed to believe too much is never enough. I also left because, truth be known, the vast majority of IB'ers and hedge fund types are assholes with little redeeming social value, as full of themselves as a Third World dictator, and not pleasant to be around. We only have one life, after all, so why spend it with them. I now run a charity of which I am the largest donor. Go figure.
While I have been away for a while, the markets and the game still interest me and I regularly play. The last year has riled me in ways that are doing their best to lessen my life span. Why? Because the same arrogant assholes who have always been convinced that the sun only rises when they give it permission, and who brought all of this madness upon us all, are being rewarded for the mess of their creation in ways that even exceed the obscene compensation they were awarded in the past. All the fuck-ups kept their jobs and ill-gotten gains, save for Jimmy Cayne, and all are reaping the rewards of their gross incompetence courtesy of the American taxpayer. They are being rewarded for fucking up, which carries an obvious bad lesson.
What a deal! They are blackjack players willing to draw to a twenty, knowing that if they bust the dealer takes the chips from the player next to them, and if they get lucky and draw the ace, the reward is all theirs. Not a single large bank holding company has the slightest incentive to do anything except bet the ranch on every hand, and with the possible exception of Morgan Stanley, every one of them is doing it. Other than empty words from the Empty Suit in Chief, not one damn thing has been done to immunize the system from the likes of BAC and GS and JPM, etc.
And who pays? We all know that answer. We have created a slew of spoiled brats, and we are continuing to give in to their every self-centered whim. They do not pay; we do. This is our fault.
The unruling class should become the unruly class, but it won't.
Fuckheads Geithner and Bernanke and Summers, and that deer-in-the-headlights Obama, are perpetuating a madness that cannot end in anything less than abject disaster. More debt for debt, more consolidation of risk, and no risk is too much risk have led us to the brink of ruin. If I thought I was not alone, if I thought the unruling would become the unruly, I would stand and fight; instead I will find a place to hide out from the destruction that will most surely come in our not so distant future.
Blogs like ZH get the word out, but it is to a self-selected few, preaching to the choir as it were. The MSM are fools, allowed to think they are insiders, despite earning salaries a hundredth of what their "sources" make, and are the butt of jokes among those on the street they cover. If a one of them had the slightest bit of sense or pride, they might become journalists instead of everyone's clown. Heck, some of them even look like clowns. Oh, I forget, the CNBC stock dolls were hired for their hard-hitting insights. Frankly, they are not even attractive, but such is the mediocrity we have all embraced: entertainment news.
See you on the other side.
Make up a new pen name for yourself, so you can be anonymous but not anonymous...
You could be Big Daddy who said, "What's that smell in this room? Didn't you notice it, Brick? Didn't you notice the powerful and obnoxious odor of mendacity in this room? ...There ain't nothin' more powerful than the odor of mendacity...you can smell it, it smells like death."
from "Cat on a Hot Tin Roof" by Tennessee Williams.
"This is a very visible manifestation of excess liquidity that monetary authorities have poured into the system."
That's the best one-liner of the year! So this rally is a manifestation of excess liquidity -- ANOTHER BUBBLE!
Congratulations, Mr. Bernanke! You're the proud parent of a bouncy baby -- er, 800 lb. -- BUBBLE!
i used to read Roach yrs ago on the MS-GEF site, he predicted a lot of what has happened and why and he was waaayy early. i believe he is a populist and a good guy.