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Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach See Increasingly More Frequent And More Dire Crises Coming Up

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene earlier, pointing out the most troubling statistic about recent market activity, which has to do with both the frequency and amplitude of catastrophes: "The crises are coming with greater frequency. Over the last 25 years we have had an average of one crisis every 3 years. The gap this time is 18 months. The scale is bigger. This is a much more serious problem in the eurozone than the Asian financial crisis." So intercrisis half-life continues to decline as the severity jumps exponentially. In other words, in nine months we will need a combined Fed-ECB-BOE-PBoC-BOJ effort for about $10 trillion just to calm the markets. 4.5 months after that, $100 trillion more... And so forth. Enjoy.

 

 

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Mon, 05/10/2010 - 12:36 | 341445 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Now with more Dire!

At least we haven't gotten to perilous yet.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 12:40 | 341455 Hughe Crapper
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Fucked as can be. Where's my commode. I need a private moment here.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:19 | 341561 Cognitive Dissonance
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Hughe Crapper

Thank you for picking up on the "commode" reference in my Sunday article. I was wondering if anyone would. Seems fitting someone with the "Hughe Crapper" ID would be the one.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/call-%E2%80%93-fictional-look-25-minute-market-crash

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:18 | 341729 Hughe Crapper
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Yep, even more suitable if you consider that its worth around $30k and has legs. Finding it is a whole other issue. John Thain's office must be small, I reckon.

 

My pleasure.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:58 | 341662 Miles Kendig
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Use the privy, water is in short supply.  Oh, here is a Bloomie's catalog for ya..

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 12:43 | 341459 ghostpirate
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how in the hell did Fisher make it?  i swear he has the personality of a dead person.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 20:15 | 342448 VegasBD
VegasBD's picture

Fisher always makes the last second game winning three pointers...

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 12:57 | 341494 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

This just went over the average American's head.  They are too stupid to realize this is what is happening.  Even the most educated American's are missing this one, so you can surely realize how ingorant the masses out there are collectively.  When the sheeple, let people like Bernanke and Geithner do what they want at will, then I guess they deserve the fleecing they have been and will further be getting.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:05 | 341524 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

The sheeple are buying non-hybrid seeds.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:06 | 341527 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

+1000
Sheeple actually do believe that something good will come out of all these bailouts and are a key driver in the insane rally to 1200+

Also not a lot of buzz on ZH about BP/Iceland ash ??

On the other hand did the cockRoach make mention of the BP spill & the Icelandic plumes ? I thinks those will be major game changers as year goes ahead. Europe airline tourism season most likely a major bust this year. Tourism/Fishing in LA, MS, AL, FL probably busted for God knows how many years. Was on NPR this morning and it seems effects of Exxon spill in Alaska are still there in a lot of areas. Herring population has not recovered even after 20 years. Wonder whats in store for the South ?

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:59 | 341666 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

I'm down here in New Orleans and here's how it looks to me. Most of the gulf coast beaches, wetlands and fisheries wiped out for the foreseeable future after being coated with crude oil, and if a hurricane hits, everything inland covered with a similar oily coating. Other than that, I don't anticipate any problems.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:05 | 341691 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Our Gulf Coast friends seem to be permantly stuck on shit fairy overload.

But LOL for the gallows humor.

Other than the fact that the wife left me while taking the money and leaving the bills, the dog bit me and the house burned down, every thing's fine. Thanks for asking.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:18 | 341728 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

Exactly why the gov't continues to get away with it. <20% of the masses understand what is happening. And of that 20%, probably 3/4 are complicit with what is going on because they are making money off of it. It's the rest of us 5% that "get it", don't like it, and read Zero Hedge.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:44 | 341824 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

DD, you got it right. I try to tell my coworkers about what's going on but they don't want to hear it. I get, " Here comes the doom and gloom." When I try to elaborate they try to act like there is nothing you can do about it. I say that's fine, just don't come knocking on my door when you're starving because you didn't listen. They just don't believe it can happen here. They got a small taste in '08 whengas went to $5 a gallon, just wait until it hit's $8 or $9 a gallon. They'll be shittin' their pants. Just bought some more silver, hoping JPM can push gold some more. Oh please, please, please. 

CAPTCHA's are getting awful easy TD, believe me lack of volume is not a problem.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 17:03 | 342079 hbjork1
hbjork1's picture

Donnie..:

My read of the history of the country is that there has been significant distrust of government at various times in the past.  After the start of the last significant depression, we had Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennedy as presidents, all of whom (IMO) were made serious in their outlook by either physical struggle (Roosevelt) or the inpact of WWII.  The leadership of the Congress was also made serious by the era. They were accorded a legacy because the took their jobs working for the greater good, very seriously.  

The US, with an intact industrial plant was exporting to the world.  Inflation was present but not excessive until the Arabs decided they wanted a fair price for their oil. 

The times have gotten more comfortable with obesity as a national problem, not hunger.  And we all have more time to catch up on the news via TV and the Internet, nearly obsolescing  the slower newspapers that dominated communication of the earlier time.

There have been conspirecy theory groups for a long time.  At the start of my professional life, it was the John Burch Society.  It went away.  If the administration gets too wackey on this subject, with the other stresses that will be occuring, we will have a new set of Congresspersons and perhaps a new President. 

I have now lived long enough to see things go back and fourth a couple of times.

 

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 12:57 | 341495 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

 The waves become more frequent and violent as the leverage has increased and the root causes are not addressed. This means that when this bubble bursts it will be the most severe we have ever seen because no amount of printing will reflate the economy but surely they will attempt it and that is the real danger.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:41 | 341619 Mako
Mako's picture

+1

As you get closer to the end game the waves will get more violent.  

You can throw anything you want into the black hole but the black hole will suck it all up and not even give it a second thought.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:01 | 341677 Psquared
Psquared's picture

If that doesn't work look out. The next step will be a war somewhere. a NK vs SK event seems to be setting up as they have gotten about everything they can out of the Middle East. China is too big and unpredictable.

A war would arouse patriotism and sympathy and forestall any effort at real reform in the US. We might even see a Nuke or two before it is over with.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 15:49 | 341985 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

A mortal lock.  China/US, probably in Iran.  Frickin' lock.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 12:59 | 341501 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

The old addage that you can't see the problems when you're on the inside certainly applies in this case. The Fed seems so set at solving the problem du jour that they fail to see the forest for the trees.

We solve nothing by lurching from crisis to crisis saddling tax payers with the bills.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:00 | 341504 Goods
Goods's picture

Novelty here we come... Terrence Mckenna must be smiling in his grave.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:02 | 341513 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

Kinda like a 1991 Caravan before all the wheels fall off on the freeway.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:04 | 341520 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

when u c 1 roach...

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:06 | 341523 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

EURUSD CRACKS 1.28 and plunging. Gold above $1200 again.

Welcome to the shittiest bailout in History.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:14 | 341716 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

GG - We know that the half life of a rolling Ponzi rollover is less than 16 hours.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:10 | 341539 Won_Over
Won_Over's picture

 Moore's Law for global financial system, using a reverse Robin Hood system. Where is Robin Hood when you need him....

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:15 | 341554 KidDynamite
KidDynamite's picture

we get more crises because we're not solving any of them! we're just pushing them off into a big pile in the future... and then "rolling" that day of reckoning!

 

Ponzi!

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:23 | 341570 Traianus Augustus
Traianus Augustus's picture

+1000

Exactly.  Same crisis, different unintended consequence from extend and pretend!!!!

Proof is in the fact that the pasty is always the same. 

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:21 | 341565 JackTheOffer
JackTheOffer's picture

Three years... then a year and a half... ok, if the trend continues, the next "surprise" is less than 9 months away.

http://preaprez.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/rosemary1.jpg

The question being, will even a mother still love it?

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:06 | 341689 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Is that a picture of Mia stumbling across Woody's photos of Soon-Yi?

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:31 | 341596 CookieMonster
CookieMonster's picture

Ho hum. Each crises is just one more step on the firmly set path towards "one-world governance". That is not my term for it, came out of the mouth of one of the German bankers last year during the Climate Change talks. It is all planned.

Once everything is finally kaput and control realized, Debit/ RFID implantations will then be scheduled and rations of soylent green made available to each participant. Would you like that computer chip in your forehead or hand?.....

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:02 | 341680 Critical Path
Critical Path's picture

Surely the masses would not tolerate anything being planted inside them...

 

wait a sec... does the forehead option come with blue tooth so I can stream my 1000 megs of itunes to my empty cranial cavity?

Or, at least tell me the hand option provides for instant credit/debit purchases, frequent flyer miles, etc. with a wave of the hand past the scanner on my 8th flat screen purchase at Best Buy.

 

Hot damn, on second thought!

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:13 | 341715 CookieMonster
CookieMonster's picture

LOL! Thanks for that response, I needed the laugh!

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:41 | 341815 GIANTKILR
GIANTKILR's picture

This has to be the reason why so many "leaders" are making such stupid decisions. Purposly destroy the world economic system so you can bring about the NWO.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:41 | 341621 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

mmm....I wanna give Betty some babies.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:44 | 341628 thewhigs
thewhigs's picture

Fisher is a TOTAL clown IMHO....I was reading an old financial magazine in an office about some of his picks back 2008.....talk about having some of the worst picks....C was among one of them...IIRC, everyone of his picks went down the toilet and have never recovered to his price points..

 

 

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:46 | 341637 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

Flutter is a self-feeding and potentially destructive vibration where aerodynamic forces on an object couple with a structure's natural mode of vibration to produce rapid periodic motion. Flutter can occur in any object within a strong fluid flow, under the conditions that a positive feedback occurs between the structure's natural vibration and the aerodynamic forces. That is, that the vibrational movement of the object increases an aerodynamic load which in turn drives the object to move further. If the energy during the period of aerodynamic excitation is larger than the natural damping of the system, the level of vibration will increase, resulting in self-exciting oscillation. The vibration levels can thus build up and are only limited when the aerodynamic or mechanical damping of the object match the energy input, this often results in large amplitudes and can lead to rapid failure. Because of this, structures exposed to aerodynamic forces - including wings, aerofoils, but also chimneys and bridges - are designed carefully within known parameters to avoid flutter. It is however not always a destructive force; recent progress has been made in small scale (table top) wind generators for underserved communities in developing countries, designed specifically to take advantage of this effect.[1][2]

In complex structures where both the aerodynamics and the mechanical properties of the structure are not fully understood flutter can only be discounted through detailed testing. Even changing the mass distribution of an aircraft or the stiffness of one component can induce flutter in an apparently unrelated aerodynamic component. At its mildest this can appear as a "buzz" in the aircraft structure, but at its most violent it can develop uncontrollably with great speed and cause serious damage to or the destruction of the aircraft.[3]

In some cases, automatic control systems have been demonstrated to help prevent or limit flutter related structural vibration.

Flutter can also occur on structures other than aircraft. One famous example of flutter phenomena is the collapse of the original Tacoma Narrows Bridge.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:50 | 341646 akenathon
akenathon's picture

Now the time is just right for UK + US + JAPAN to declare BK

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:01 | 341676 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

I know I was being polite.  Heck, I mighta gotta bet from someone willing to take the other side of my estimate for another T within the month. 

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:06 | 341690 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

We have a situation where the finest minds out there are waving red flags, and the people, the same people who ignored the subprime red flags, are once again oblivious to the final result.

When the big shit storm hits, people like Bernanke and Geithner really should get jail time. What will happen though is they will simply vanish.

Why is it so difficult to fathom the idea of converting some of this huge pile of debt into equity?

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:10 | 341707 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

WB7

Our indoctrination and brain washing is so extensive and complete that once we finally get past our own conditioned denial, a denial that is enabled and encouraged by the thieves, we are then so ashamed and disgusted with ourselves that we don't wish to relive it again by dragging these bastards to the bar.

This is why we should return to the gallows without trial. To save us from ourselves. I know that's not fair or just but neither is what's going on.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:12 | 341710 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Why spend my tax dollars housing these criminals. Convict them of treason then hang them from those flag poles on 85 Broad.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 20:08 | 342434 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Hey WillyBanz7

I like that swap- Debt for "Equity" idea.  2 issues tho...

1. Assets minus Liabs ought to be greater than zero ??

2. What part of the Motherland shall we give China ??

Just asking...

 

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 16:51 | 342058 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

was surprised to see consumer debt spike up in last report ? wonder if ZH did any post-mortem on that ? or are sheeple completely bought off on this recovery and willing to bet every dime (and more borrowed) on it ?

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