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Morning Gold Fix: August 16
Commentary courtesy of www.fmxconnect.com
Gold booked a small gain on
Friday, rising $2.10 from its opening price of $1212.80 per 100 troy
ounces to $1214.90. After trading higher electronically over the
weekend, gold is kicking the week off with a bang, with the October
contract pushing as high as $1228.80 all ready, an increase of more than
$7 on the day.
Monday Morning Comment
Deflation
talk has the markets spooked during these last couple weeks. Since
Bullard's comments (preparing the ground for QE2) and Bernanke's
promises to combat deflation through treasury purchases, even the CNBC
talking heads are discussing it. Editor's Contrarian note: Probably
time to consider unwinding your bond longs if T.V.'s equivalent of your
shoe shine boy is telling you deflation is coming.
In
deflation, Gold should be the tallest pygmy. Even If it drops 40% in a
deflationary depression, it will still stand tall among the financial
wreckage that is defaulted debt and worthless equity. But, if the Fed
succeeds in combating this event (preemptively or after the fact),
Hyperinflation becomes a high risk and we know what that portends for
fiat currency.
"Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise. Seek what they sought."
~Matsuo Basho
During
the U.S. Great Depression, there was a high demand for Dollars as
thelast refuge for safety. "WHY were Dollars so valuable during the
Great Depression?" is what you have to ask yourself before you go
plowing any more of your money into long-dated bonds or the DX. Our own
analysis sees a lack of counterparty risk and scarcity as the two
reasons Dollars were coveted back then. Hardly an original idea, but
relevant when you compare today’s greenback with depression era dollars.
No Counterparty Risk- Dollars were backed by
Gold then, now they are backed by GDP. Some would even say that Fiat
money is debt... so there goes the counterpartyrisk argument. Meanwhile,
physical Gold has no counterparty risk.
Scarcity-
there are plenty of dollars out there in the mattresses of foreign
governments and scared people. Fractional reserve banking is not the
issue it was during the 1930s, especially in an age of e-money. The Fed
is also printing in advance of a deflationary debacle, it is not playing
catch-up this time. So, scarcity is not a reason to buy dollars now.
Inflation remains in check thus far due to a lack of monetary velocity,
not a lack of money supply. Gold is scarcer than Dollars with an annual
growth rate of only 1.7% . This time Fractional Reserve Bullion Banking might be a catalyst for more scarcity motivated Gold buying.
Risk: Short People, Long Things
If
depression economics kicks in again, you will see a flight to assets
with little to no counterparty risk... this time the Dollar doesn't have
the monopoly on safety. Gold will compete with it, just like it did
when the Europeans ran for cover during the Greek debacle. Finally, if
you are long dollars looking at Deflation coming prior to Inflation
does,we think you are most likely right. But Hyperinflation is a
function of money velocity, not just money supply. And money velocity
can turn on a dime if the public loses faith in its government.If a
quick increase in velocity occurs, you will have to be a market timer
extraordinaire to not get caught long fiat currency when the devaluation
panic hits. You'll be right until you are wrong, with very little time
to reverse when the rubber-band snaps.
Why we're Long Gold on a relative value basis:
We're
regression traders trading M3, not Gold. And M3 will revert to the
mean, but only after a volatile pendulum correction in the other
direction. We believe the reasons for buying dollars during the Great
Depression were: scarcity and lack of counterparty risk. These qualities
reside this time in Gold, not the Dollar, and therefore limit downside
in a deflationary depression.
What we are worried about:
Market timing- timing exit of a Gold market where 1 Trillion dollars can corner it (or crush it) is a recipe for an exit liquidity problem.
Gov't intervention-
special taxes, stepping in and forcing liquidation on the Comex during a
rally under the guise of special circuit breakers (see the Hunt
Brothers), and generally managing the market until the cycle turns can
cap the upside. And do not give me the London Bullion story of how that
would fail. Governments can remain irrational longer than you can remain
solvent, to paraphrase.
What we've done about it:
We
hope to avoid these pitfalls by not being market timers and by
diversifying assets to mitigate political and sovereign risk without
diversifying ideas. Gold, U.S bonds under 5 years, Real Estate in
underleveraged countries, and financial companies that will benefit from
rising bid/ask spreads on the yield curve without all the balance sheet
baggage. Rolling maturing bonds into Tips, and Gold and BRIC Bonds.
Bonds: Illusion of Safety
All this talk about Bonds being a flight to Safety is a little
erroneous we think.They are safer than many things right now. But we
feel more and more that U.S Bonds are a flight to liquidity, not safety.
Many buyers are "parking" their money there in the hopes that the next
wash out in stocks or any other risky asset will give them the ability
to sell the bonds and buy into the risk asset classes again. Hot money
needs liquidity on demand, and U.S. Bonds seem to offer that. Look for
bonds and the DX to go down simultaneously if the deflationary trend is
reversing. If that happens, look for more liquidity gaps to begin
appearing in previously liquid markets, a la the flash crash.
Black Swans and Fat Tails
We
prefer to call them Fat Tails and have used that phrase long before
recent fascination with semi-aquatic foul came to the fore. Although we
admit Taleb is much sexier and smarter at this stuff. Buying wings in
hedge of a Black Swan event is a valid approach, but it seems to be
morphing into a dogmatic philosophy. Black Swan event probabilities are
not the same as Fat Tail valuations. At some point it just might be
better to buy skew call spreads and put spreads when the leptokurtosis
gets too fat. We're seeing that in commodity options everywhere as
people are buying speculative insurance and driving down 5 delta option
Gamma/ Theta relationships to silly levels on the curve. In short, there
are lots of longs in the Fat Tail portion of the Gold curve.
Dear Gold Bugs
It’s
a trade, not a religion. What happens when someone can synthesize gold
atoms? Or aliens land on earth that eat dollars and crap Gold? Those
are pitch-black swans for sure, but stuff we think about. Try to "know
what you do not know" is our hedge. It's just a trade, one whose time
has come, but a trade nonetheless. Make money, take profits, and find
the next trade. Try not to expect PMs to go up during a depression, and
you might be pleasantly surprised.
Good Luck.
-Elizabeth Thawne
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So go long (physical), and short the S&P. What am I missing here?
+1 I figured that out in April, thanks to ZH.
Dear gold bugs,
Keep adding to the stash by making money in the game.
"What happens when someone can synthesize gold atoms?"
This is serious analysis?
How about the alien, will it will be called a fat tailed black goose?
Yes, someone doesn't understand basic physics. Besides, it is now possible to do so, but unimaginably expensive, and so the use of the ability is restricted to synthesizing exotic stuff, not stuff you can (still) buy for fiat. Even then, can't the author imagine other things that would be more valuable and synthesized instead?
The major gold black swan risk I see is massive global population reduction or cessation of international trade.
If you understand peak oil you understand technological black swans are much less likely than the above.
"What happens when someone can synthesize gold atoms?"
This is serious analysis?
Beware Rumpelstiltskin!
>>Or aliens land on earth that eat dollars and crap Gold?
you mean china i guess!
Bulls calling for -40%...sounds like a religion to me....Jim Jones style.
I agree with your verbage that in deflationary depression gold would be tallest pygmy, it will still be a pygmy (compared to cash). All markets tend to screw both sides of trade before making uber move - and we will have deflation for some (undetermined) length of time before there is enough govt action to create currency reform. Hence - cash then gold not gold then cash.
And really, its past time to think in financial terms at all. This is end of acquisitor/accumulator stage of history for most...
Still waiting for that deflation to take gas back down to $1 per gallon like it was in 1999. Man, the good old days!
I agree with your verbage that in deflationary depression gold would be tallest pygmy, it will still be a pygmy (compared to cash).
Me thinks you are confused..............
We are not talking 1930's DOLARS (Fiat), we are talking ass wipe USD's.
Explain how 2010-2012 worthless USD's, will be ranked above PM's in another GREATEST OF ALL DEPRESSIONS?.
you will have to pry my gold from my cold dead hands. unless of course i get paid enough to buy that 18000 sq ft getaway in the hamptons.
i'm still waiting for someone to explain this scenario for me.
So gold goes to what ...$10,000 or $50,000 an ounce? Ok that's a possibility IMHO.
Now how much is the hamptons mansion that used to be $10,000,000? In this hyperinflationary world it's now only $5,000,000 and you can trade in your 100 ounces of physical at $50,000 an ounce for it?
makes no sense to me...more likely the mansion is now $50,000,000
You're assuming a fixed 1:1 ratio in dollar/gold valuation. Not probable.
Think outside the dollar box.
During the Weimar hyperinflation, real estate prices failed to keep up with average prices (they were the asset that appreciated the SLOWEST), whereas gold and silver far exceeded the average price gain (they rose the FASTEST of any asset class, even outpacing food). Well into hyperinflation, and ounce of gold might be 100 Trillion dollars, but your formerly $10,000,000 Hamptons mansion is now worth only 10 quadrillion dollars, meaning Gold has increased 100billion-fold, while your home has increased only a millionfold.
Indeed, for much of that hyperinflation, real estate didn't get any more expensive nominally, sometimes even falling. Only when it entered the panic mode did the prices jump up. It is not unreasonable to expect to be able to buy a nice big mansion with 100 oz of physical gold. It's not out of the question to be able to buy it with ten (just highly unlikely, and if it occurred, would likely be an overshoot phenomenon, ie a blow off top in gold).
VW,
I am still waiting for the scenario where ANYONE in their right minds, thinks the Gestapo we will have if it comes to this, is going to let you keep A wedding Band of Gold, much less 16ozs, or 5-20 pounds?.
Dream ON. Serfs will be the order of the day.
Better pray like hell Gold gets no where close to those numbers..........the more valuable, the less chance we get to keep ANY.
i think you are absolutely correct.
I was speaking completely hypothetically. I think gold can go much higher, but hell, i dunno, maybe a double form here? A triple would be the high end, IMHO.
and who knows if it dips before that...I think it will, which is why i sit on the sidelines before buying any meaningful amount.
Here is someone who craps gold:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-O3napwtDGo
A reasonable argument until the smarty pants swipe at God's Gifts, aka, us gold bugs. Gold and silver are top dogs on my family altar. Anyone know where I can get sandalwood joss sticks at bulk prices?
The Fed should be allowed to "Invest future GDP money" in the market. What I mean is this:
Every time the Fed pumps money in the system, it goes to the deficit.
But if they where allowed to invest future GDP money in the markets that ammount would only need to be put to the deficit once the set date is reached, and by then they can sell the products with: a profit, a loss.
If profit: if is taken from the deficit
If loss: it goes to the deficit.
And as stocks are pretty low, they got a 90% chance of making a profit.
Whenever the experation date of the investment is reached, the money created to do the investment becomes real money. So in order to do this without a risk, they need to elimenate the investment.
I think it could work and that I should be Fed chairman :)
ME ME ME ME ME ME!!! AND I WILL TAKE OVER THE WORLD! WHOEHAHAHAHAHA!
Now, it is NOT 1930s either here in America or in the ROW:
"America is not an industrial superpower any more. It is practically uncapable of retooling itself for a big war"
Umm, nuance there ol buddy. Here's another way it isn't 1930: While we may not be ready to do a "big war" a la 1930's, we are very very ready for a short, I mean thirty minutes short, war that would be 10x more destructive than WWII and WWI combined. All those boomers out there, patrolling deep under the seas, with their very accurate MIRVed missiles, mean no old school "big war". The long drawn out pain in Japan, which occured during the Pax Nuclearis (to coin a phrase for those who lose it when they read "Pax Americana"), well, it occured in a different context of military technologies.
A properly orchestrated false-flag event could change these variables.
That may be true but it may also change them in the wrong way. People are easily misled, misinformed, connived by the MSM and TPTB these days.
It's a trade, not a religion. I like that.
But it misses the bigger point of holding PM's. All the words (wealth, money, medium of exchange, unit of productve exchange).... matter not in the end.
If Gold is analogous to the Sun and Silver to the moon and can be seen as such, magic begins to unfold.
Gold price is going to get really choppy in the coming months. Why? The sun is waking up again (http://www.spaceweather.com/).... signal enough. There are more hidden meanings in that simple analogy, by the way. Interesting stuff.
Long silver, watching AU like a hawk.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
In a deflationary environment Gold will rise because our creditors will dump dollars. Why?
Because deflation would make our unpayback-able debt ever more onerous thus leading to an explicit default.
If you believe the dollar will rise in a deflationary environment then you just joined the King Of Chumps Club.
Shirley, pay the man!
+100
DarkMath,
<Because deflation would make our unpayback-able debt ever more onerous thus leading to an explicit default.> An excellent observation. US$ is baked by GDP. A deflation with will disseminate GDP destroying the US$ fiat-currency foundation.
Darkmath, I read another post somewhere else on ZH where the author made the point that the US and Japan are unique in having their entire (US) and almost entire (Japan) debt denominated in their own currency.
In that case, the only explicit default is unto itself, ne? Confused me, because it means the debt itself is not really defaultable as long paper is available, presses run, or even more ludicrous, if you can keep pushing Zero's on your keyboard. Vale of currency be damned.
Either through deviousness, accident or cunning, the US has made sure it has a secret chair when the music stops.
Still won't end well, but this game is definitely extendable, unless other fat tails and black swans like War, pestilence or general acts of force majure dictate otherwise.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
@darkmath
If gold goes up in both inflation or deflation, is there any scenario where gold might possibly fall? Or is it just up, no matter what?
Define "fall". Do you mean that gold ceases to become a store of wealth?
The answer is no as far as I can see. Does it become "worth" fewer dollars?
Of course, in many circumstances.
Defining terms is critical in the answering of your question.
One has to get outside the dollar box in critical thinking about gold.
Gold does poorly in times of low, but steady inflation, as well as during times of zero inflation. It is during those times that the fiat money system most resembles a gold standard, and as such, gold is not required, and falls in value. This was the case from the mid 80's-2000, and again briefly in 2008.
I was watching a replayed Bloomberg report and the commentator said we were in a Deppression. It was her discription of the economy at this point ...it's the first time I've heard the "D" word used so effortlessly
During The Great Depression when the world was defaulting on its debt, people accumulated U.S. Dollars - which created a shortage due to hoarding. Why? Because there was NOT an ample supply of physical gold and the U.S. Dollar was GOLD-BACKED and was THE SAME AS HOLDING GOLD !!!
Get it, Lizzy ?????
Do you know the REST of the World did not call, nor consider it The GREAT DEPRESSION?.
Just US................because of the same friggin policies that are being used NOW, FDR did the same thing........the same.
Gold is set to rise in this economic environment. We won't simply have deflation like in the 1930s where Hoover and Mellon followed "Market Fundamentalist" precepts and let deflation run its course. Assets deflated as well as prices and incomes. That's not the environment we're facing today. We have the opposite style of fully interventionist Fed and Treasury not only in the US but in all developed nations. And that leads to an unpredictable, complex, sometimes opaque economic environment. Massive debt, monetization, zombie banks, misallocation of bailout funds to the non-productive economy, massive offshore dollar holdings all contribute to exceptional uncertainty. This is the climate where gold shines as all else goes darker and darker.
We won't simply have deflation like in the 1930s where Hoover and Mellon followed "Market Fundamentalist" precepts and let deflation run its course.
But that isn't what happened. Hoover initiated stimulus programs to combat the perceived threat of deflation, he just didn't ratchet them up as high as FDR did.
But it was Hoover's use of artificial stimulus for the first time in US history that exacerbated the problems in the troubled economy (a credit bubble had burst) and turned recession into depression. FDR's policies lead to an even greater downside with the economy bottoming out in 1937.
Only in 1947, after the government economic stimulus and wartime spending were ended did the economy begin to rise at a high enough rate to eventually regain the 1929 market high. This 1929 high was finally reached in the middle of the 1950s.
Oh my goodness!! Even Glenn beck is discussing The Hindenburg Omen this morning!
Oh the humanity!
Dare we predict that some day, Tyler Durden will wear his(/her?) crown with a furrowed brow?
Turd,
Beck may be liked,or not so much, but he's at least been talking about what WAS coming for at least 3 years.
And more often than not he's been correct.......regardless of what a lot here think.
I will take what he's pushing over the MSM ANY day........at keast he's trying to warn people, not selling BS, when he knows it BS.
Schiff, Celente, all said the same shit about them..............and still argue w/ them.
Who's ass is the blackest now?.
Beck called Ron Paul supporters "terrorists." The man is a dick.
Glenn Beck is the single most pathetic idiot in television history, and that includes characters like Alf and Erkle and Gomer Pyle.
Any enthusiastic supporter of Beck is a level-10 moron, deeply anaesthetized in the wing-nut ether.
Unusual financial times for sure - pure deflation you want cash. Pure inflation, you want PMs. Hmm.. well, if certainly seems like deflation is coming on, but if I were a betting man, I'd say the fed is gonna wade in pretty hard with the next financial crises. Gold certainly seems to have been happy with market down days recently.
There are two diverging spheres of "economics" - local and global/main street and wall street, yada yada. On the ground here in California, in my up scale suburban neighborhood; the neighbors are renting extra bedrooms out to college students (I am doing the same.), the folks down the block just moved their mother back into their home from the unaffordable nursing home. The family behind me is pitching a tent in their back yard to take the kids of their brother while he leaves home looking for work in Texas. Meanwhile, most of these households now have one wage earner and some of the unemployed over 50 are looking at NEVER having a decent paying job again. The garage sales are more numerous and the goods more valuable - yet NOBODY has the physical money to buy anything. I wandered over to my unemployed 30 year veteran mechanical engineer and asked why he's selling his piano. Answer: "Ammo." When I realized I didn't have enough money in my account to even offer to buy his piano at 10% its cost I asked myself what useless thing I could sell quickly to stockpile (anything).
Meanwhile on Wall Street, Grand Cayman, and Abu Dhabi its another billion here, a trillion there. QE this, Fed intervention that.
Somewhere Congress cuts Food Stamps.
Truth is poignant and a strange read sometimes in these times of high weirdness.
Sounds terrible. Why don't neighbours get together, start a street/community eBay page and become gold sellers? I'm sure someone on the street already is.
I think a global trade in "used" items is set to explode, especially with shipping costs down (for now).
Community action is the need of the hour.
For example, if someone in the US was selling a few used electric planes, hobby kit/set, I'd buy it. Move old stuff around so less has to be produced.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Done. It's called Craigslist.
One can judge the progress of the depression by the wide price range being asked for used goods, esp. durables & big toys. Some folks 'get it' and are accepting first/best bid. But many folks still do not 'get it' and are still asking 50-90% of cost for used goods. Ebay has become a near-exclusive community of people who do not 'get it'... no-reserve auctions are now rare & most eBay listings are 'buy it now'-type transactions where the price is wildly out-of-line with the actual market demand.
The idea that something frivolous is 'collectible' and thus demands a premium price is now merely a symptom of denial.
sounds like a perfect description of deflation to me
despite all the printing of money, no one has any. Everyone wants to sell physical (take note you koolaid drinkers) goods to be able to buy necessities, driving physical prices ever lower.
as long as people expect prices of real estate and other real goods to fall, no one will buy and they certainly won't borrow to buy, nor would banks lend to them if they wanted to.
despite all the printing of money, no one has any. Everyone wants to sell physical (take note you koolaid drinkers) goods to be able to buy necessities, driving physical prices ever lower.
Gold 1223.30 +7.90
Looks like somebody has money and is buying physical today.
That price does not necessarily reflect physical buying. I'm not sure that physical purchases are really reflected in that price much at all.
Well that would explain the divergence between spot and physical especially in situations like late 2008.
bank,
yep, someone's gotta pay for all those MAJOR leuge vacations the folks is takin Bi Weely...............
Sure as hell a funny place to cut though...............
Their paychecks should be #1.
Gold and silver as money would be very good for the normal people but not
for politicians and bankers.We would have mild deflation then but that
is ok because of technoligy advancing will be the driving force.Will be more
easy to save up for something like a house instead of lending till you are all
broke.Think all the money the banks soak up now could be used much more
productifly and people shoud have real jobs.Goldbugs all know the feeling
of freedom and fin safty when owning gold and silver.We goldbugs have the
gold and will spend it when we the time is right for ourselfs but at a higher value
(no not price)We will clean up their ballance sheet 15oz gold/one big house.Dow /gold.
0.5/1.Seen a lot of people go broke with trading stocks or buying houses on credit,seen nobody
going broke from buying PM.This bull market in gold is far from over you nasty little paperbugs.
The banks already have a lot of cash?! on their ballancesheet from QE1 then they will
drop the market and the demand QE2,3,4.......With all that money they will try to soak
up all our pensions,houses,labor etc.I'm not American but in Europe it's the same game.
PM is a good way to protect yourself from this looting going on.Just love your constitution.
We the people......
The beast needs trillions of $ a year to be kept alive .The same amount of $ every year
from witch all of US was build.It doesn't make sense anymore if I keep adding the nummers
and then I buy some gold or silver knowing I'm doing the right thing.Starve the beast!!
Silver,
Bro, this PARTY is over the minute the Chinese,and Japanese, start dumpng dollars, and TBills/Bonds.
The day after we lose the Reserve status the dollar will drop to 20.
Weimar Jr.
Silver,
Bro, this PARTY is over the minute the Chinese,and Japanese, start dumpng dollars, and TBills/Bonds.
The day after we lose the Reserve status the dollar will drop to 20.
Weimar Jr.
Tons of gold imported into UAE discovered to be fake
http://www.emirates247.com/markets/gold/tons-of-gold-imports-turn-to-dus...
Just a foretaste...
Wooops!
http://www.emirates247.com/markets/gold/tons-of-gold-imports-turn-to-dust-on-arrival-2010-08-15-1.279082
UAE Imports Five Tons of Fake Gold
what??!! greedy gold fanatics trying to get something for nothing??!! Impossible!!
That which is not valuable is not counterfeited.
See how much sense a person can make when he thinks about a subject for at least three seconds before posting and leaning on the ! key?
in all seriousness, it brings up a good point.
In Mad Max land when your psychotic, gay, musclebuilder neighbours are trying to shoot you to steal your gas, how would you know real gold from the fake stuff?
With enough fake gold around, people will lose faith in it faster than the greenback.
hard to fake a pineapple though, or a sack of potatos.
I think I'd rather be long those.
wonder how many people holding 'physical' are really holding fakes?
There are plenty of ways to field test the authenticity of gold, especially a coin. Large bars are much more vulnerable to counterfeit. A good reason not to own any!
there must be, i'm sure the romans did it. But how ? have a link to a good description? I'm sure a lot of zh'rs would benefit.
so all of you have done these tests on all your holdings?
And your internet personas are so perfectly firewalled that "TPTB" 'don't know who you are?
Measure the diameter and thickness of the known bullion coin, then weigh it. If the specs don't match, it ain't gold. A little acid can be used to determine whether a piece of jewelry is gold and an experienced eye can tell how many k the item is by the amount of fizz from the acid.
There are lots of options, easiest way is to get a multi-aspect physical measurement device like this: http://www.fisch.co.za/home.htm
But that can be combined with a variety of other tests that can be performed everywhere; you can carry a magnet, a small gram scale, calipers to measure thickness, strong magnifying glass, and a portable reference guide to physical dimensions of common bullion coins, or even an acid test kit. That's all if you don't want to just bite 'em like they did in the old days.
But counterfeit concerns is why I prefer 1 oz American Eagles; small enough to make them difficult to drill & fill, widely recognized so as to make it a challenge to counterfeit without someone noticing, with well known dimensions.
how'd they do it in the old days? I recall from my studies waaaay back when that people used to devalue coins by 'clipping' them, but don't recall how they tested veracity.
Weight i suppose? Doubt they had standard sizes then.
bet they had a lot of counterfeits back then...and more now.
bet they had a lot of counterfeits back then...and more now.
If you want to convince us that this is true, please cite historic examples of shop keepers who so feared counterfeit coinage that they refused to take gold and silver in exchange for goods.
If you can't find the citations then the "problem" must exist solely in your mind.
hmmm yeah....no fake coins on ebay, or in your local coin shop...
Weight, jingle, magnetism, diffuse reflectivity, even biting or poking to measure malleability. Part of the reason why gold works so well as currency is that it has a number of rare physical properties that are relatively easy to test.
thanks, nice to see someone actually answering my questions.
Clipping was evident in silver coinage. This is easily overcome through use of reeding (think of the side of a quarter). Further, modern mints make perfectly round coins, so it is easy to detect clipping.
Also, gold coinage was never debased--but the Romans shut themselves out of the gold market by importing huge amounts of goods from India in exchange for gold--they never produced enough things for export to balance their trade, and gold disappeared from the Empire. Sound familiar?
You are better off wondering about the counterfeit status of your $100 bills than the genuine metal content of a gold coin.
that si what im saying. read the article
yeah there are a few points that i think are bang on.
I myself am trying to time it perfectly, and realize i could get it badly wrong.
I'm hoping being Canadian MIGHT provide me with some benefit (like less of an all out collapse of confidence in the currency)
The only USD I hold are ones I use for daytrading, which is still a substantial amount. But I can quickly switch to loonies or gold if i wish.
I was wondering why you have come across as such a passive-aggressive, pompous yet ignorant poster here. Then I finally read that you are a resident of Canadia. Question answered.
I have seen many a counterfeit bill in my time, still have a few laying around as reminders.
I said nothing about paper money. I'm saying food, cigarettes etc have been used in the past as money, and in the doomster scenario make much more sense than dubious gold coins.
even if YOU think they are real, the guy with the food might not think so. I wouldn't accept them.
even if YOU think they are real, the guy with the food might not think so. I wouldn't accept them.
If. You gotta love pronouncements based on "if."
Maybe the guy with the goods you want to buy will think your food and cigarettes are tainted. A person can make a reasonably accurate assessment about whether a coin is gold or silver with the right tools and know how. But if a person eats poisoned food he has gotten in trade he and his family might die.
If.
If.
If.
well this is all hypothetical isn't it?
or are my starving neighbours gonna ambush me when i get home today?
dammit, and i just loaded up from the supercenter!
well this is all hypothetical isn't it?
Not in the least. The physical properties of gold are not speculative.
Exchange of gold for goods in a hyperinflationary scenario is not hypothetical. These guys were able to do it, and with gold DUST, which is real tough to verify, save that it is heavy for the grain size: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM
Gold is not to buy the small things like bread,currently 1/10oz gold coin for
about 100 breads.Silver is suitable for small purchases.Gold will be used for
new capital formation;to expensive for the most common people.First buy
your silver than to further concentrate your value buy some gold.
Pretty staunch capping effort again today at the old Dec 2009 high of 1224. The fucking Evil Empire sure is predictable. The attached below is 100% accurate.
http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/August1610Gold.pdf
Resources like the one you mentioned here will be very useful for me! I like to share it with all my friends and hope they will definitely like it.
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