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Morning Gold Fix: December 9
From Goldessential
Gold holdings in the thirteen continuously by Goldessential.com monitored gold-backed exchange-traded vehicles were seen dropping 3.14 tonnes on Wednesday, December 8th, weighed down by ongoing long liquidations, causing a drop in gold prices below the $1,400 an ounce mark.
Four vehicles reported net outflows. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) said holdings on behalf of investors slipped 2.43 tonnes or 0.19 pct. Three by ETF Securities marketed gold ETF’s/ETC’s also reported outflows, namely the ETFS Metal Securities Physical Gold (PHAU) trust (-0.65 tonnes), the Gold Bullion Securities ETC (GBS) (-0.04 tonnes) and the ETFS Metal Securities Physical Gold Australia trust (-0.01 tonnes).
None of the monitored vehicles reported fresh inflows on Wednesday.
Total holdings - thereby excluding the infrequently updated ZKB Physical Gold trust and Credit Suisse’s ETF II on gold - stood at 1,911.88 tonnes.
COMEX benchmark gold futures for February delivery – GCG11 – were seen hit by a second day of selling on Wednesday, hitting as low as $1,372.10 an ounce.
On Thursday, prices had recovered to $1,384.40 an ounce during overnight electronic trading on the back of increased risk aversion in equity markets and sound physical demand originating from Asia, but a softer EURUSD countered the upside.
Matthias Detremmerie, founder of Goldessential said that “Technically, the dip in prices has hit our first waypoint on Wednesday, and has nicely bounced off a three week old uptrend line. However, a failure to regain past $1,400 still opens for charts to deteriorate further, targeting $1,352 as next target, with gold continuing to feel heavy”. Detremmerie added that “fresh strength in the U.S. greenback could also limit recovery”.
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At one time people thought gold would fail at 800, then it was 1000, also at 1200 and 1300, but now that the Bernwanker has perfectly articulated his love affair with disaster (see Steve Forbes article in prior ZH link) we can fully expect that 1400 will be superceded by 1500, 1600, 1800, 2000, 2500, 3000, 5000 and whatever other number will eventually lead to the middle class being voted off Consumption Island.
in my humble opinion the number might be between 50,000 to 100,000...then it will be fixed. this will be the rosy scenerio...the alternative is Zimbabwe.
Could be, and the way I am looking at this is it has to do with whatever level most thoroughly destroys the consumption mentality in the USA and pushes us back into being a producing nation. That or they lose total control and our "nation-state" existance is endangered.
BTW gold at one time was $16,500 per ounce (US Continental currency) and there have been 4 "National Banks" (ie - banks that were chartered by Congress to be the central bank of the USA) prior to 1900 that failed.
Detremmerie added that “fresh strength in the U.S. greenback could also limit recovery”.
On the other hand, accelerating loss of confidence in the entire Euro and US fiat regimes could result in a $100 up day at any time.
Four vehicles reported net outflows<<<<<
what exactly does this mean? That the holders of shares requested their physical gold and silver? I think not. So the paper chasers went somewhere else to play. Yawn! Who cares. These "vehicles" don't have the physical to back up their shares anyway. Is there any question about this from what we have seen? Again, I think not. Besides we are overdue for a healthy corretion anyway. Buy on the dips!!! BUY BUY BUY!!!!
Anytime I begin to question where the price of PM's are headed, I take a deep breath and look at the historical charts.
Fiat continually devalues. Buy the dips.
bang dae gold
Outflows from EFT's show that the holders of that garbage are beginning to wake up and now know they had better get into physical while they can. This is news only to the stupid.
Those who are late to gold party may think a drop in gold from $1,400 to $ 1,300 is a dip. For the mass majority of physical holders, a dip does not begin until the price hits $900.
Buy physical gold, silver and oil stocks; you will be glad you did. The fourth quarter of 2014 is only 48 months away.
I think the dip is over...
I expect a sell off in hard assets, just to shake the tree
Short term--swings up and down, getting wilder as we move through 2011.
Medium term--bullish.
Long term--BULLISH.
There seems to be no doubt that in the short term, the reluctance or refusal of most people to make the leap into gold and silver remains a barrier. Maybe it is simple ignorance. Maybe it is a permanent mental framework that cannot see its way to buying gold. In any case, the fact that most people are on the sidelines leaves the markets open to manipulation by the big boys. And in the short term, they are able to force swings either way. If you are in PM for the long haul, you can either ignore the short term altogether, or you can play it to try to find profit opportunities along the way to much higher prices in the long term.
Same with the medium term, but by the end of 2011 (still medium term), gold should be at $1700+ and silver at $38+. 2011 and 2012 are transition/transformational years. This medium term period is when many people will wake up and dive into PMs. This will begin to impact the big manipulators. It will be harder for them to scam the system for quick profits.
Long term--the Euro Zone and the U.S. are on final legs. 2011 and 2012 will see the shift from last gasps of life and hope to acceptance of the terminal nature of our disease. So, sometime in 2012 PMs will go off the chart--gold to $5000+ and silver to $50+. People will want some form of real wealth as the dollar and Euro collapse. They will want to be able to have something to use to buy essentials. All of this will accelerate the collapse.
So, buy the dips and hold on. Physical, eventually (sometime in 2011 is the prudent time to shift solely to physical, but risk-takers can play with paper, probably, into early 2012) will be the only way to go. Right now, the short term picture allows speculators to make profits using paper, especially AGQ and UGL.
But, it's gonna get ugly, and probably sooner and more suddenly, than most people think.
Read Simon Black (The Sovereign Man) to begin considering your options.
If you plan to ride out the collapse in the U.S., get some good farmland with a solid house that is fully functional off the grid. Read the back-to-basics books by the likes of John Seymour, start practicing some back-to-basics skills like gardening, tree-cutting, livestock handling, and hunting, dressing, and cooking game. Take your physical gold and silver (get alot of "junk" silver), your diesel 4WD, your tools, your guns, your ammo, your fuel, and your food, and get to your farm (you need large woods or adjacent woods, a good, reliable water source, and good fields of fire). Good luck.
Funny within a minute or two of this article posting, gold popped about $6. I would expect a thrash again at $1400.
"a failure to regain past $1,400 still opens for charts to deteriorate further, targeting $1,352 as next target"
Ooh, since it fell past an arbitrary point, it might fall further to some other arbitrary point. What a load of nonsense. It might just as well go up to some arbitrary point.
"gold continuing to feel heavy"
Avoiding the physical silliness in this statement, do they think I want advice that could just as well have come from the Psychic Friends Network?
Just basing and will crush shorts. The dynamic is not the relative relationship between the US$ and other fiat currencies, a mote point. The dynamic is funny money vs real stuff (stuff = whatever is tangible, material wealth).
Wow! I'm impressed. Some individuals/institutions sold paper gold. Let me guess; they ran to invest in the ten year T?
Good luck with that one.
The buy and hold strategy that has worked best for the past ten years is holding physical PMs.
When gold/PM futures are nearing backwardation twelve months out then we have a sign. A sign that people are moving to physical and that the exchanges trading paper are meaningless.
Here is a good simple explanation....
"Let's Get Physical"
http://dailyreckoning.com/investors-to-silver-lets-get-physical/
"Gold for 1-month and 3-months forward has been mainly in backwardation for more than one year. Even more exceptional is that gold 6-months forward has been in backwardation since November 5th. To show how rare this event is, I checked the LBMA database, which goes back to 1989. There is not one instance of 6-month forward gold being in backwardation, which confirms my own experience. I’ve been trading the precious metals since the 1970s, and I can’t recall any time before this year when 6-months forward gold was in backwardation. The current and continuing backwardation is truly incredible.
12-month forward gold is also approaching backwardation. These downtrends make clear that the demand for physical gold is intensifying.
The picture is even starker in silver. Silver 6-months forward has been continuously in backwardation since June 2nd and mainly in backwardation for more than one year."
"Some skeptics may argue that there is no backwardation apparent from COMEX settlement prices. Aside from the fact that COMEX recently changed the method to determine settlement prices from a market-driven basis to instead allow a manual override, which now makes backwardation on the posted COMEX settlement prices virtually impossible, one has to first recognize that COMEX is first and foremost a market for paper-gold and paper-silver.
Therefore, a piece of paper can promise virtually anything, without regard to the underlying reality of how physical metal is actually trading. In other words, COMEX shows March futures in contango, when they should in reality be in backwardation. Thus, if you are buying March silver or April gold futures, you are overpaying. This overpayment is no doubt going into the pockets of those banks that are perennially short and use their size to control the paper market. They can, after all, always conjure up whatever paper they want out of thin air, which of course they cannot do with physical metal."
THINK PHYSICAL
Let's see what happens when the Chinese ETFs enter the market. No doubt they have plenty of benjamins and an appetite for Gold. Its apparent the Chinese have lost all faith in the Dollar based on their recent actions and official statements.
The opportunity is huge for those who can take off their stinking myopic lenses for a moment.
When does a consummate trader transcend his nominal horse blinders?
QE is as permanent as the odor I leave after a visit to the bathroom (yes, I eat a lot of garlic and carne asada).
For beelzebub's sake, if you have to trade to keep your nominal-bound-self satisfied, then keep a livable PHYS position and forget about it in your floor boards. After which, motor it out to the paper casino, smile, and have some fun while you revel in your real vs nominal hedge.