This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Morning Gold Fix: July 20, 2010
Commentary courtesy of www.fmxconnect.com
Yesterday’s activity was correctly predicted by the option market. Puts finished the day Friday quite bid on the short end, and that spilled over into Monday. Most put buying these days on Comex is a proxy for GLD put buying interest as the ETF has bigger volumes than the future market. This alone should be cause for systemic risk alarm bells. Another example of a derivative trading more than the underlying it tracks. But I digress.
Put interest in the short end indicated a selloff was imminent, and a 10 dollar drop did happen yesterday, after a 3 dollar higher call. This despite dollar weakness. Also worth noting wee hedge fund liquidations of back month option risk. the speculative buyers of Dec 2011 calls are beginning to throw in the towel via selling of volatility. Perhaps the Mayan calendar was wrong and the end of the world won’t happen for another 10 years?
We read yesterday an interesting piece by Byron Wien we thought worth sharing. In it he “interviews the ‘smartest man’ on earth”. He makes some reasonable points on Europe, the U.S. , deflation and potential inflation. He also describes his version of a sounder money, something to replace the Dollar as reserve currency. “The new currency would be a basket consisting of dollars, renmibi, gold the euro and yen.” Full article here. Alas, he also reasonably states that it will most likely not happen. I disagree, as the IMF has been laying the groundwork for this for some time. Or as James G Rickards says “Preparing the field.”
August gold was down 3.6 to $1178.3 per 100 troy ounces as of 7:20 AM EST, this morning. The September U.S. dollar index was up .505 to 83.210. October platinum was down 14.8 to $1498.3 per 50 troy ounces. Silver was down 2.8 cents to 17.515.
-Elizabeth Thawne
»
- 5342 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
steam is pouring from the windows of the Comex. silver deliveries are a disaster.....gold isn't far behind.
You have to wonder where Jamie is going to come up with actual bullion to meet the demand. From what I see now, the efforts are becoming counterproductive...the more JPM bashes the price down, the more people flee to the hard stuff......AND TAKE IT HOME.
Hi unwashedmass;
I hope you are right, but to repeat my view from an earlier thread, I think that the manipulators will allow the price to overshoot some nominal price that they can defend, then slam it hard back down to that price. They will want to encourage a view that this is a risky investment, that casualties abound, that it is a bubble, that you can lose, and thereby cow the public into steering clear.
Then within a year, they'll have to do it all over again, at a higher level.
max...that works until you don't have participants in the paper game...and you're out of bullion to meet the demand from those departing the paper game. which is where we are now. the withdrawals, particularly in silver, from the Comex have been nothing short of wondrous in the past couple of weeks. They don't have the goods any more......
consequently, this massive shakedown to try and wrench some silver back ...but...not really working as they are creating a huge buying opportunity -- not in paper -- but in bullion for the masses, the very people they are screwing so royally out the front door.....
and when the little people buy, it don't come back. FOR YEARS. the game is in danger of ending........
not only do I hope that you are right, but that would be very bullish for gold; silver price being the 'long lever' on the gold price & all that. :-)
Teddy boy, no need to hide behind the moniker "unwashedmass"... We are all friends here.
don't know who Teddy is,but ain't me.
I think he means Ted Butler, but I never thought so.
What about Nadler? Isn't everybody who's anti-gold some guy named Nadler?
Oh, and we're all the same poster too. Only one person on the earth disagrees with gold bugs. All posts against gold are done by one guy named Nadler, who is paid by the shadowy hand behind the curtain to dump gold prices so that "they" can get gold cheaper.
Is this story right?
Do you even read any of these posts or do you just show up to attack the commenters? And more importantly, why do you do this? Do you get some thrill defending the crooks like JPM in this continuing criminal enterprise at the Comex?
steam is pouring from the windows of the Comex. silver deliveries are a disaster.
We can only hope this is true. If so, the end is here.
guys...visit your local coin shops. they have gold, but...the peasants -- who haven't been left with much by the banks -- are draining silver thru these shops now. they aren't quiet as stupid as Ben believes they are ... or needs them to be.
you read this peasant's mind. on my way!
guys...visit your local coin shops. they have gold, but...the peasants -- who haven't been left with much by the banks -- are draining silver thru these shops now. they aren't quite as stupid as Ben believes they are ... or needs them to be.
and while everyone discounts the "little guys" aka peasants....its a death of a thousand cuts......constant drain of bullion from the markets that won't come back....FOR YEARS.
++
I did, and what I found was the same old thing I have been seeing for the last 3 years.
People that had fallen on bad luck, selling everything from junk coins, to silverware. I asked the dealer if this was common, "For every person like you that is buying there is 100 selling".
Bubble my ass.
We also discussed the impending 1099 disaster, he said he was considering closing up shop.
According to Harvey Organ who tracks the daily inventory movements on Comex, 74.4 tonnes of Gold stood for delivery last month. Based on the documented movements into and out of Dealers Inventory (Which is how Comex requires deliveries to be accounted for) virtually none of this metal has been delivered as yet.
It seems to be the same story as for Silver - buyers are having to wait a loooooong time for their metal. One has to ask why?
If you also consider the ongoing withdrawal of literally millions of ounces of silver from the Customer Inventory at Comex (ie silver that the owners are simply storing in Comex warehouses) we have all the appearances of a real physical supply crunch coming, coupled with officially documented evidence that third parties (No doubt aware of this) are rapidly removing their metal from Comex, presumably in case it is used against their will for meeting deliveries or is simply caught up in the fallout of a Comex default.
Something is up for sure in the paper metal markets. Maybe the Bullion banks can fix it, or maybe there are no more tricks left in the bag. The Achilles' heel of the paper metal ponzi scheme is, and always has been, lack of availability of physical metal. It is strongly suspected that the big Bullion Banks have been bailed out of Gold delivery issues on several previous occasions by borrowing from Central Bank reserves. With silver, however, there are no CB stockpiles to draw on. If a buyer wants delivery, the Comex sellers need to find the metal in the open market somewhere. Furthermore, buyers of Silver often need the actual metal for industrial purposes, so settlement in cash is not an option.
At some point, we know not the day nor the hour, this scheme will collapse. I believe the Silver market will be trigger that will detonate the whole sorry mess. Like the Madoff scenario, there will be no warning; the game will continue right up until the moment it collapses.
+++
silver deliveries a disaster? 1,883 contracts month-to-date, same pace as March and May.
PM wholesalers have plentiful stocks of silver - just call them and ask.
Maybe there will be a run on stocks, but it isn't going on right now.
Plenty of silver you say? Where are all the 1000 oz bars? They used to hundreds of them at APMex and Tulving. Now gone, out of stock. Northwest Territory's claims it takes 6-8 weeks to deliver, if they can get them.
Plenty...not any more.
call the wholesalers - MTB in New York, CNT in Boston, or Amark in LA. Tulving and NWTM are retail dealers. The wholesalers have plenty of silver and premiums remain very low.
If anyone believes otherwise, let's see some links to hard data.
You claim plenty, you prove it.
How about a link that it's out of stock?
Or did you hear that from a site called "silverline.com" or "1-2-3 silver.com"
LOL
Eh? APMEX has 6 of them, in stock and ready to ship, on their website. I dunno if they have more, but they certainly aren't out of stock. Less than they usually have on there, perhaps.
I see Royal Canadian bars, 900-975. That's it. They used to have plenty of 1000 oz bars.
http://www.apmex.com/Category/518/Silver_Bars_Secondary_Market__New.aspx
Contracts are not deliveries. Silver bars delivered to a buyer's vault is delivery, and it is not happening. As unwashedmass alluded to above with only 8 days remaining in the official July delivery window, virtually none of the 738 outstanding contracts (representing 3.7M oz) have been physically delivered. If Comex warehouses really are stuffed full of silver ready for delivery, they seem to be peculiarly reluctant to put it in an armored car and send it to the people who now own it.
prove me wrong, show me the data! Talk and hearesay from industry fear mongers is not evidence. Show me a link to that report that shows that such silver delivery request isn't being filled and such delays have never happened before and I will change my mind.
Your mind is your own, and you may do with it what you please. I do not seek to change it, because frankly I can't be bothered.
The data I refer to is freely available from the Comex Delivery Reports and Metal Depository Statistics reports provided by the CME group. They are the 'Industry Fear Mongers', as you put it, that operate the Comex exchange. As it happens I also believe that they are an unreliable source of information, but doubtless for different reasons than you.
From these reports you can see the number of contracts standing and the quantity of metal leaving the Comex inventory. Draw your own conclusions from that.
that is part of the problem - everybody wants to appeal to emotion and hearsay to push their bullish views on gold and silver yet always fail to back it up with verifiable information. I am familiar with all those reports you mentioned, and they do not support the case for any run on physical stocks whatsoever. I thought that maybe I was misinterpreting something, but now I know that people just want to believe what they want to believe, facts be damned.
That said, I mean no disrespect to anybody's views, I was just looking for a good, honest debate.
Fair enough then. In the interests of removing emotion and considering only the facts, can you point me to the report that shows the 2.3M oz of Gold from the last notice cycle being delivered, i.e. removed from Dealer Inventory? I can't find it.
he can't point you to it, cause it isn't there. so now he will disappear for a day or two.
the interesting thing here is....it seems that the big players -- other than JPM -- are getting as sick of JPM's muscling as we are.......
what the gang at the CTFC feared so much >>> trading in the metals will move beyond the US (read Comex, read our control) is now happening.....
he can't point you to it, cause it isn't there. so now he will disappear for a day or two.
the interesting thing here is....it seems that the big players -- other than JPM -- are getting as sick of JPM's muscling as we are.......
what the gang at the CTFC feared so much >>> trading in the metals will move beyond the US (read Comex, read our control) is now happening.....
I don't see that information. But I also don't understand completely how things flow through the CME reports and what the timing of such deliveries have occurred in the past. Like I said before, perhaps I am missing or misinterpreting something.
If someone would care to educate me with links to the data, it would be appreciated.
Here, let's go with this, Brian. From Harvey Organ:
I would like to go straight to the gold and silver inventory and notices and reveal some startling events.Silver Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory 25,315oz Withdrawals from customer Inventory explained Deposits to the dealer Inventory N/A Deposits to the customer Inventory *202,253 oz No of oz served ZERO oz No of oz to be served 743 3.7 million oz Gold Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory N/A Withdrawals from customer Inventory 193 oz Deposits to the dealer Inventory 5000 oz Deposits to the customer Inventory n/a oz No of oz served 49 4900 oz No of oz to be served xxxxxoz COMEX Warehouse Stocks July 19, 2010 Ok lets start. In silver please note that there was a withdrawal of 25,315 oz from the dealer inventory. The CFTC has given an explanation on the second deposit from the customer inventory of *202,253oz In reality, supposedly there was a deposit of 1.1 million oz into the customer inventory and then a withdrawal from the customer of approx. 900,000 oz of silver leaving a net deposit of 202,253 oz separately there was a withdrawal from the dealer inventory of 25,315 oz Even more shocking was the revelation that ZERO contracts were served upon in the silver comex. At this late stage in the silver delivery month this is totally unheard of. And to boot, the number of contracts left to be served increased in number to 743 or 3.7 million oz from 3.5 million oz. Anybody that buys silver comex for the july month must pluck all his money down. He no longer is allowed 10% down. It is the entire amount. So if you see the number of oz to be served rises you can bet the farm that they are standing for delivery and they are jumping queque (correct spelling anyone on queque?). The total number of oz of silver standing so far remains at 1869 or 9.3 million oz. The total number of oz standing for this delivery month of July is 9.3million + 3.7 million + .2 million = 13.2 million oz, a gain of 200,000 oz of silver. As I have repeated many times there is a lot of smoke and fire at the silver comex. Let us go to gold; a very tiny gold deposit for 5000 oz in the dealer inventory and a very tiny 193 withdrawal from the customer. Strangely in this non delivery month of July for gold we are seeing a lot of activity with respect to notices. Today we got 49 notices or 4900 oz of gold. The total number of oz already served equals 743 or 74300 oz of gold or 2.31 tonnes of gold. I want to emphasize that we are getting lots of activity on the options exercised late in the month rather that earlier. This shows scarcity of gold metal. Also we are witnessing very little gold into the comex vaults to satisfy the 2.3 million oz of gold standing at the end of June. Now the 64 million dollar question: what on earth was the 1.1 million deposit and .900 million of withdrawal. My bet: some customer demanded his leased silver back and immediately removed it from the vault.( maybe if he did not get his silver back, he was calling in the FBI)..just a hunch.
Thanks Turd. This is very helpful.
As to whether or not this is quality information, I cannot attest. However, here's his blog:
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
This is interesting, too.
http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/metalmark...
Ed Steer posts the info daily in his email.
Here is a link to subscribe:
http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/gsdOptIn.php
Here is his latest post:
http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayGsd.php
You mean...... people should back their views with fundamental or technical analysis instead of raw speculation based on stories from gold salesmen?
Blasphemy.
I'd prefer to talk about what happens when you can't tell the difference between Zimbabwe and the United States, because they're the exact same country and all...
Hi Brian,
I dunno who is junking you, asking for evidence is eminently reasonable.
I have my experience which is statistically irrelevant, but anecdotally interesting. It relates not to the Comex, but the supply of physical silver at the UK mint (the Royal Mint).
Their new 2010 silver bullion coin retails at £22.50 which is circa a 100% mark-up on the metal price. It is not a numismatic 'proof' coin, just bog-standard bullion. I know that the Mint only get a few hundred orders a week, because order numbers are sequential; you make a few orders over time & you can work it out. These are low volumes, and even then, PMs are only part of the product range. Their high premiums, and low volume of orders, suggest that they don't sell much.
Two weeks ago I ordered two silver 1 ounce Britannias and they arrived promptly. HOWEVER, back in Q1, I ordered a single standard silver Britannia, soon after the new coin was launched, and they had great difficulty in supplying it. They failed to supply it in their three week target. They wrote to me twice thereafter, offering me the option to cancel my order (!). After about five weeks, my singular silver coin arrived.
So, I cannot comment on their current supplies, but my experience was that they have intermittent supply problems, on a commodity on which they enjoy a massive retail mark up. The physical silver market appears to have been problematic for some time. They are a national mint; supply dynamics ought not be a problem for them!
jlee
from what i understand though the comex has always leased the necessary silver when needed from the large silver owners who are holding their stash at the comex for whatever their reasons. to date they have been able to make good on any and all physical deliveries in this way. unless and until this fail-safe can be removed from their bag of tricks it is all still just a pie in the sky scenario.
plus i still think the rules will get changed by the fed or cb's if it gets to that point. but maybe we'll get the opportunity to see.
They have certainly been trying this approach recently and have secured somewhat over 1m oz in leases from customers.
Interestingly the most recent inventory numbers show that one or more customer deposited 1.1M oz (Almost certainly a lease) but there was also a 0.9Moz transaction in the other direction. One might speculate, based on this, that the 900K oz was a customer who had previously agreed to lease their metal to the Comex changing their mind and then immediately removing it from their warehouse.
Maybe the old magic leasing solution is wearing off, as the risk of not actually getting the metal back when the lease expires increases and customers decline to take that risk.
well, if that "speculation" is actually occuring - i suppose that could signal the initial stages of a default. but wouldn't the holder of the silver then just be enticed with even higher and higher interest paybacks on their leased silver to the point they just would not refuse?
even a ridiculously high interest on the leased silver is preferable to a default. at some point that easy money is hard to pass up for the silver owners.
I don't know...if I had a million oz of real silver a collapse of the Comex price supression scheme would make a whole lot richer overnight.
If one knew that they could just get the silver from somewhere else then yes, one would probably take the large incentive the Bullion Banks are no doubt offering for leased metal. If, on the other hand, one felt they have no other option and refusing to lease the silver would break Comex, that would be a much more profitable option.
agreed. but then who's to say that large stash of silver would even be there for them to take delivery on if it's not there in the first place?
maybe they would think the safer play would be to take the interest payment on the lease and then request future delivery of their silver in smaller amounts as a means of getting out whole.
i would think that not only is the "old magic" wearing off, but now there is a substantial fear of "rule changes" and confiscation ( i put nothing past JPM, and the power of the lock they have over the regulators and our government. we are now a banana republic, and anyone who trusts the government will protect them and the free market is an utter fool.)
++
I would also add if you don't believe fiat currency will hold value and fear it's collapse, then you want your silver.
Many would agree with the Comex window steaming. Max Keiser recently talked to Ben Davies of Hinde Capital about the BIS gold swaps and the 100 to 1 paper to gold position on top of record silver contract short positions.
http://maxkeiser.com/2010/07/20/kr61-keiser-report-markets-finance-gold/
Gold looks headed lower for a few weeks with equities and other commodities.
karma,....big if in this one. big if. Jamie needs 3.7 million ounces of silver to meet demand deliveries. He's got eight days.........and there silver isn't there ...what's left at the comex is enough to meet demand, but...but....the owners aren't interested in selling (eligible).... or if they are, not at JPM's designated price, (registered)....
so, while JPM believes it rules the metals world with an iron fist, they may find out differently in the next several days.....guns to the head don't work with folks with enough to hold on thru JPM's manipulations.......
and a year from now, sitting thru another dollar of downside will seem completely irrelevant given the price.
I've been hearing for years about how any day now the Comex would not be able to deliver gold or silver. That is, people who bought futures contracts for actual physical delivery would not get their metal because the market manipulators who sold the contracts didn't have the metal to sell. Maybe so. But I won't hold my breath. FWIW I'm all about the shiny stuff.
CNBC, who was previously permabull on gold, has changed its stance and said that 1265 was likely the top.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38314447
It makes me rethink my bearish stance altogether when I agree with CNBC...
CNBC is nothing more than a propaganda outfit. when a rise was inevitable, they laid back and enjoyed it.....i mean, they have to maintain some credibility....
thing is, from 400 to 1100, they were outright bears, spewing the JPM doctrine and neglecting any reporting of anything going on at the Comex....
a few guests who mentioned anything about it were "disappeared"
1100-1266, they tried to herd the sheep in -- and started running "sell your gold commercials".....and played a "sub-theme" of "is gold in a bubble"
now, with the windows of the Comex steaming, JPM on the ropes for delivery, they spew that the top is in, and everyone should get out.
be more cynical, it helps. also 30 years in financial media and news helps discern the strategies....and anyone who thinks there isn't one...and that "CNBC just reports the news" is naive beyond all reason.
I don't think that you understood my post. I KNOW that CNBC is full of it, which is why it surprised me that they were bearish on the metal.
Still, they could very well be right this time. I mean, they agree with me. There's no better way to be consistently right. LOL
Anyone know if this is real? And why?
http://cryptome.org/0001/wikileaks-zero.htm
Subject: WikiLeaks support, etc.
Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2010 17:07:13 -0500
*** BEGIN PGP DECRYPTED/VERIFIED MESSAGE ***
Dear Cryptome:
We at Zero Hedge have watched with interest (and some horror) the Wikievents of the last several weeks. Of particular notice to us recently has been the complete inability (or unwillingness) of Wikileaks to release any new material not related to the self-promotion of its ubiquitous figurehead "Julian Assange." Despite a massive budget, it would seem more than an order of magnitude larger than ours, the Wikileaks enterprise seems totally unable to do more than tweet pleas for patience while sending Mr. Assange to, e.g., Brussels to debate freedom of expression. Where are the millions of documents leakers risked to liberate? This is quite sad for us to see, as we were some of the earliest and most enthusiastic supporters of Wikileaks, as individuals as well as under the umbrella of "Zero Hedge."
We currently run and maintain our own servers for Zero Hedge and see in excess of 500,000 hits per day on normal days, with spikes to nearly a million if something interesting is going on. We've recently upgraded our infrastructure (multi-homed in some of the same jurisdictions Wikileaks uses, as it happens) to deal with our own growth. Consequently, we have quite a bit of spare capacity and bandwidth right now, as well as sufficient financial means to secure same for the foreseeable future. We are long time Cryptome readers, and fairly crypto and INFOSEC savvy (we even have an early member or two from the original cypherpunks list among our senior staff, though none connected with Wikileaks). We manage sensitive sources on a nearly daily basis.
We fight any number of frivolous takedown and legal challenges from well resourced institutions (investment banks, hedge funds, etc.) monthly. As individuals and an organization, we seek to avoid, rather than ravenously pursue, press of any kind. (We get enough headaches from the media without even trying, thank you very much). Moreover, while we are focused on finance, we are philosophically aligned with the ORIGINAL premise and mission of Wikileaks: The liberation of raw data. Our "manifesto" might give you an idea of the sorts of goals that drive us:
http://www.zerohedge.com/about
We have no doubt that directly contacting Mr. Assange would serve no real purpose, as it would seem control of even an inactive Wikileaks is something Assange would never willingly relinquish. Nor, given the allegations about the personal use of donor funds, would we be willing to associate ourselves with Mr. Assange until a full accounting were made. We seriously doubt this will ever come to pass. The figures currently claimed by the organization as needed funds are FAR in excess of what is even plausibly required for such a firm- given our experience running what is now a "Top 100" Technorati site (and consistently Top 1 or Top 2 in the Business category) for the last 18 months.
Unfortunately, it seems impossible to contact Wikileaks directly without passing an Assange filter first, so we have not bothered to offer our help directly to Wikileaks. We would, however, be quite interested in hearing from other members of the organization how we could help return Wikileaks to its roots. At the moment we aren't sure what form that might take. Clearing house for data? Secure submission node? Research and analysis? Managing sources and source material? Whatever the case, it is a huge pity to watch the continued squandering of Wikileaks, both as a concept and an execution. Perhaps, given your apparent status as an interim contact point for the Wikileaks rank-and-file, this note might be helpful.
Please feel free to post this material as you see fit under the header "An Open Letter to Wikileaks Insiders."
"Marla Singer"
co-founder
Zero Hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com
marla[at]zerohedge.com
PGP Key:
You know, the couple of times I've talked to Marla and Tyler has shown me that they are nothing but class people all the way.
While I sometimes do not like some of the people that post here's behavior, the people who own this site are classy all the way. I should donate sometime.
You've never donated? If so, you should be ashamed.
It "sounds" like Marla with her bad-ass toned down. And it would fit. But since ZH hasn't mentioned it one way or another I would be cautious assuming it's real until confirmed.
The peek into the future , or is it the present ?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=idCFV0KF4uo
Great article on the "smartest man" on earth, especially the comments on affordability of the military, healthcare, social welfare, retirements, of the US. But who is this mystery man ?
So when GLD crashes enough to cause delivery requests and COMEX can't satisfy, what then? the tail can only wag the dog so far
laughing out loud. You think you can request gold delivery from GLD?????? Hello?
When the Keebler elves stop trading me rainbow chips deluxe for green cheese I got when I flew my unicorn to the moon, what then?
I guess the point I make is that goldbugs arguments all rely on unlikely events happening...
"When the dollar collapses and we use the dinar as reserve currency"
"When you can't tell the difference between America and Zimbabwe..."
"When there's armageddon in the streets, and we have to hide from roaming bands of mad max thieves...."
the day that the peasantry starts actually asking from GLD to come thru on what i believe they put in their prospectus, is the day this entire fraud is exposed worldwide....
good luck with your "gold" investment in GLD.
the day that the peasantry starts actually asking from GLD to come thru on what i believe they put in their prospectus, is the day this entire fraud is exposed worldwide....
good luck with your "gold" investment in GLD.
you can take delivery from GLD - but I believe the perspectus states it must be made in 100,000 share increments (ie if you don't have 100k shares, you're not getting anything)
Good luck with your "investment" in physical gold...
JB you've been cutting and pasting that one for years. And you've been wrong.
Actually, only since 1220 in the gold price last November or December or whenever that was.
And I've been totally right.
Sorry I forgot that you were born yesterday, my argument is invalid.
If the DXY breaks 85 I'll change my tune. Honest.
Johnny,
The people here aren't investing in gold for the short term. They aren't even investing in gold. They are buying it as a hedge and store of wealth.
So your point about 'being right' doesn't mean anything here because you don't understand what gold is and why people here buy it.
Go try CNBC and Seeking Alpha if you want support for your argument.
Those of you looking for pyhsical delivery squeezes in GC/SI need to know that PAPER is deliverable against PAPER on the Crimex....
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/New-COMEX-Rule-complicates-Precious-Metal-ETFs-25752-3-1.html
that is not entirely true - GLD is deliverable only with consent of the buyer. If the buyer demands physical, then he must get physical. This is based on my own interpretation of the rule book, if anybody read that and determined otherwise, please let me know.
...oh, and you need to possess your GLD in blocks of 100,000 units, and meet other 'special' criteria if you want delivery.
GLD/SLV: a couple of the best weapons available for shooting yourself in the foot.
Now shorting them if you can see spot slipping; well that's your ticket to 'free' gold.
Great link 2Bear.
Regards
you need to take delivery of an amount in excess off 100k shares/units
Good luck getting any physical in Canada as well!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/christie-blatchford/an-unki...
Did the dollar hit 82 and bounce off of it yet? That's the target I had for the symmetrical triangle. Unfortunately, I've been lazy in following the chart lately...
Take a look at some other folks work -- it's good exercise for the brain:
Gold
Gold
Gold
Yes..., just like it did at 84.
I don't read every thread, and I have a theory I've not seen discussed before, though I'd not be surprised either if its been well covered before.
The manipulator in chief is deemed to be JPM, acting as 'da Boyz' for the Fed and other deep pocketed CB's. Maybe we'd be surprised at who the other clients are.
The story starts with physical. I was struck by a story during the recent Euro crisis, describing how South African refineries were receiving unprecedented orders from their German wholesale customers that stretched their Krugerrand production process into highest gear, and how a silly game in the NY Comex, that has very little to do with physical supply, and not a party in this transaction, was determining the price of this and other sizeable physical trades.
Now skip to Jim Sinclair, who quoting the example of deGaulle in a KWN interview last year, said that the China put would ultimately burn the shorts at the comex, that these traders cannot fight governments. I think that view is now out of date, as I will explain.
Now skip to Cheeky Bastard, on a recent thread here, who argued (probably correctly) that under current dynamics, the price of PMs has got fuck all to do with the puny money involved in physical Retail demand. We also know from the relatively puny comex delivery stats, that the customers are unlikely to be sovereign governments dropping by, asking for the goods.
We can deduce that as avid buyers, that the Russians, Chinese, Indians etc, want to buy big but without pushing up the price. We know that the comex can be successfully used to frustrate price discovery and keep the price LOW. Is it not therefore logical, the JPM's clients are just as likely to be the Chinese, Russians, Indians, and every CB in the world, contriving to keep the price low, while they gorge on whatever foreign stocks / production they have access to, at the prices they helped to rig?
The Chinese et al under this argument will never burn the comex shorts, they ARE the comex shorts.
The upshot is, we may have to wait a long time for the price suppression to crack; there are endlessly deep pockets funding it. If it ends, we could then have gold and silver prices to the moon in a day. But the trigger will not be lack of funds to cover shorts; it will be something else, but dunno when or what.
This therefore might turn out to be a much longer game than we thought, and we'll have the pleasure of Johnny Bravo to keep us company throughout the wait!
Please somebody explain why the above theory doesn't compute, I don't want to be right on this one.
Good Day All,
I'm a first time poster and several month lurker. I have a question for the PM folks, if you please. A while back, I read someone's post about how to tell if a gold coin is the real deal. This can be done by balancing the coin on a finger and gently tapping it with another coin. The sound should ring true. I tried this with my gold eagles. They sound wonderful. I tried this with my silver eagles and noticed that the sound was not very true, and worse yet, very short lived. The gold coins rang for several seconds at the same pitch, where the silver rang for only a second or two. I repeated the test with a 1921 Morgan silver dollar. The coin rang much more like the gold eagle though of a different pitch and slightly shorter duration. My question is: Am I correct in being suspicious of my Silver Eagles? I would appreciate any advice/thoughts that can be given. Thanks!
I am a relatively new poster too. I think the readership of threads at ZH move on with 24 hrs. I can understand why; ZH by itself can generate 10 threads a day, if you leave them open then within 3 days you have 30 open tabs just from ZH alone (and growing).
Ref to your question, I have the same coins and the same experience. I procure in the UK. I think that your coins are fine. Here was my question on the same topic, from a few days ago.
quote>>
Hi thesapein,
I share your confusion regarding what a silver coin should sound like when dropped or struck. Not least, because I have a variety of silver coins, and no two types sound the same.
I have UK Britannias, a maple, eagles, buffaloes, philharmonics, NWT's and sunshine states.
I tend to balance them on a knuckle, and strike them with something metallic. The Britannias are worlds apart (but they are alloyed with copper), there is a distinct note that resonates for a very long time, like a tuning fork. NONE of the other coins do this. Of these others, no two groups sound exactly the same, and some sound distinctly different to each other. An abrupt 'dink' is all that most of them give. Even the 0.9999 Maple, gives only a dink.
Given that most of these types of coin have a similar silver content, or are pure silver, the difference in sound suggests either that some are counterfeit (I personally doubt it) or that the form and design of the coin has some effect on the sound properties. I am not finding any consistency.
I'm not heavily invested in silver for these reasons of uncertainty; I no more than dabble. I do trust Britannias, but the premiums are rather high. I know that Johnny Bravo gets excited about premiums, but they are also recouped when a coin is sold on. A reasonable premium is an expected part of the coin's market value. It can be a higher percentage for silver, because silver is cheap. If Ebay is a barometer for market value, then the higher premium for Britannias for example, can be recouped in entirety when sold on.
Ideally there would be a Youtube video that clearly demonstrates what different types of silver coin should sound like. It would help to put uncertainties to bed, uncertainties that deter many potential purchasers and purchases. I would have hoped that coin dealers would have realised this and actioned this already; any coind dealers out there please take note.
On the other hand, if this is already available & somebody has the link, then please share it.
<<<unquote
And I forgot to mention, though my gold eagle sounds like yours, my gold Buffalo has not those musical qualities. The gold eagle has copper in it, the buffalo is .999 purity.
The most musical coins I have are the UK silver Brittannia, and the Gold eagle. The common factor is copper. The 0.999 coins I have, whether silver or gold, do not resonate well.
Thanks Max! What a relief to hear of your experience.
What part of the UK are you in? Back in '95-97, I lived in Berkshire at RAF Welford (near Newbury). What a beautiful part of the country. I miss the summers. Winter were a bit too much for me. I'm currently living in the Marshall Islands. This climate is much more my style. That said, I miss the UK. I love the history and the ancient places.
London.
and speaking of history, we are in the foothills of history in the making; I think the profile of a typical goldbug is the view that momentous change is coming.
Just to finish on the silver coin issue, I have a variety of silver coins bought from several sources at different times over a 2 year period. The eagles all sound the same, the .999 block-category all sound similar, there is consistency in the 'strike and listen' test in coins of similar category.
You can probably google the spec, but your old silver coins probably had a copper component. If so, that would explain the resonant note when struck.
Adding a little copper to silver does not actually add any colour to the coin (if Britannias are anything to go by). Does make gold a bit more bronze coloured though. Copper was always added to coins to strengthen them, both for gold and silver. It made sense when they were circulating coins, and the tradition persists in for example, the production of British coins, even though they are no longer circulated.
Bye for now.
Thanks, again! London is an impressive city. I don't think I could live there but I do enjoy visiting.
The copper explaination makes perfect sense to me. I'm guessing that's what gives my 22k gold jewelry its color. I compared it to my .999 au coins just for giggles. I don't know what I was expecting to see, lol. Just playing with my toys. My 22 year old daughter got a kick out watching me. I felt like a kid again. Wow, new toys!
:)