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Morning Gold Fix: July 27
Commentary courtesy of www.fmxconnect.com
Gold Option Expiration
Expect absolutely nothing to happen today, with the possible exception of a counter trend move higher due to residual pull from the August 1200 strike. That said, lots of interest in the 1150 put already today.
Where to from here? The stock market is in love with itself now. Many cite the lack of volume as a reason to fade the rally, and we are inclined to agree with them. The Flash Crash has done much to scare away any retail money thinking of sticking its toe back in. But yet the stock market continues to rally.
Banks with unlimited access to ZIRP money and nothing else to do except pump the very equities they are selling to their clients have successfully sold themselves on the strength of this market. It’s a liquidity / credit driven market, not a fundamental one. These type of rallies are unfun.
At some point the Fed’s ability to keep real interest rates at zero will force the weaker hand and smaller balance sheet public to capitulate and go all in on stocks again, just as it forces fund managers to chase returns. Then we will get higher volume rallies. That will be the distribution move. Then I feel stocks and bonds will crap out. When I don’t know. In the mean time. Long bonds, gold stocks, gold bullion, MLPs, LATAM real estate.
The sheeple will be left holding the bag once again. For that time, Gold will be depressed in price as the risk-on crowd has its way.
If we are entering the QE2 pricing zone, then do not expect gold to explode higher. Expect it to keep pace with the dollar’s devaluation / inflation rate. And right now those are muted in the market. If you are a buyer, buy weakness, not strength. We are still in liquidation mode.
-Elizabeth Thawne
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Looks like the market want's gold under $1,180 until experation. Would this be considered a "buy the dip" opportunity?
Gold is down because of Europe. The rally in Gold since February was the result of FEAR in Europe.... they were buying gold while the EUR was going down. Before February weak dollar meant Gold up, after February the relationship was inverted... strong dollar (weak EUR) = Gold up.... just check this chart of EUR/USD vs GLD for the last year... as soon as FEAR abates in EU then GLD goes down...
If EUR/USD goes to 1.35 GLD will go back to 110... today I was thinking that even if the EUR stays here but European banks stocks go up or stay stable it will be enough to keep putting pressure on Gold.
http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/2825/compareo.jpg
**cough, cough*** it's technicals, and the natural cycle of the markets ***cough, cough**
If you check the chart you can't deny that Gold went up because of fear in EU... look at the correlation between GLD and EUR/USD for the last 6 months?? what natural cycle?? what technicals?? Are you being sarcastic???
I thought it was the magic unicorn that sh*ts skittles having a bowel obstruction.
Hey Bravo, good to see you back.
Wish I had waited until today rather than buying my 2 oz yesterday, but "asi es la vida".
I think you now have a proper avatar. Well done, some of the others made you look less credible.
You should know I check out VXX every day at stockcharts.com...
3 days for a break-x event. July 30th. Up? Down?
The event will decide.
The dull days of flapping sails in the irons will be behind us soon.
A different kind of irons await!
;-)
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Amazing how shitty news, allows them to drag this down...............am I surprised?
Nope, the stats read without FURTHER STIMULUS(GV'T), expect NO more gains.
Gold Bitchez!
Silver puking all over itself...
Consumer confidence lowest since Feb. Let's see if there is any rationality left in the market.
Lower, lower, lower! I'd like to buy more on sale, please.
That's the trap. It will go lower maybe even 1120 but you won't be able to buy any.
I bought 2 oz yesterday, same premium of $70 as I have been paying lately at the coin shop. Dealer told me no signs (yet) of premium over spot going up.
They are really knocking out the calls. This will take care of COMEX delivery problems.
all this doesn't fix the problem in silver. they are still sitting on delivery notes from March.
Then they are relieving some pressure.
The total number of silver contracts served upon already this month total 2281 or 11.4 million oz of silver. The total number of silver contracts left to be served and are standing for silver (and cannot be bribed )equals 173 notices or 870,000 oz
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2010-01-01T00%3A00%3A...
Looks like silver is going to stay in deeply troubled territory for a bit longer. It's getting ludicruous at this point.
Thanks for the link. Found this interesting:
"In other physical news, the ECB announced a net sale of 123 million euros worth of gold. There was one central bank who bought and one who sold. . The total tonnage is gold equates to 4.1 tonnes. Yesterday, the GLD announced a reduction of .3 tonnes of gold. The destination of that gold was no doubt the bank of England. If it went someplace else, you can bet criminal proceedings will commence here as this gold belongs to the Bank of England who swapped its gold for cash by the GLD folk. The swap can and will be unwound with the wishes of the B.of E."
GLD has yet another expiry Thursday. Its third expiry this month! Yet SLV only expires when stocks expire. Don't know why.
all this doesn't fix the problem in silver. they are still sitting on delivery notes from March.
unwashed,
Nope, and it really will create MORE problems.......
Folks will buy more, as the price drops.........
Just like Physical Gold................when the Bitch rolls over, it's going to be a bloodbath.
Obooster,said not to expect the jobs situation to get back to close to normal until 2016!!!!!!!!!!!!.
6yrs, of more 400k+ per mo job losses?.
Their will be Chaos.Not to mention QE 4,5,6..............
The Reserve status is going to the toilet..and when it does, LOOK out.
USA new rating, B-.
when the Bitch rolls over. <-- Super well said.
As the price drops I will buy, buy, buy.
+ a lousy $1170!
judge: the delivery issues are interesting. would you elaborate on how this takes care of them? thanks.
Hardly any silver calls expiring in the money. I've been hearing about delivery problems, especially in silver since the Andrew McGuire whistle blower, silver-rigging scandal broke and pressured the silver market up.
http://news.coinupdate.com/comex-silver-inventories-continue-to-decline-...
you have to start reading harvey organ's blog. there are a lot more than "problems" with delivery now. there are guys making a mint "leasing" them the silver to make the delivery, and then using the cash to buy silver for september.
smoking is pouring out the windows of the comex silver floor.......
today's action is pathetic....shows exactly what we've come to, and what our markets are today --- banana republic specials.
U S Mint,is giving out excuses again about shortages of Gold & Silver blanks......
Well, I'll be................weren't they supposed to SUPPLY ALL that the American Public requested?.
Maybe now they will, since they can get it less expensively.
Good buying opportunity.
Yes. Bought more gold and silver today. Will buy more on further weakness.
We may not get many more opportunities to buy PMs this cheap again.
they want gold under 1180 for the expiry. harvey organ notes that it is odd that they are letting the puts expire in the money. the number this time is 1183...
he suspects bankers are now buying for their own accounts.
they know what's coming as well as we do.
Then they've done a grand job.
magnificent, fraudulent move in silver today! Sure, they have NO silver to back up their shorts, but...who cares? Not the CTFC...
glorious buying opportunity there.
Silver keeps bouncing off the $17.50 range...I agree good buying point.
I see another opportunity to buy a little more today. I am holding back a lot of powder however, I am still convinced prices have to get knocked down further to give tptb an opportunity to cover up their games. I am satisfied to wait them out, and fully expect a lifetime opportunity of profits ahead in PM's. This was bolstered by the recent announcement that 1099's will be issued for sales exceeding $600. You see the guv wants a pound of flesh from that avenue as well.
That's $600.00 for those IN the bidness..........
You ( individulally) only get a 1099, WHEN you sell.Not when you buy....(that why the Dealers are bitching(tons of paperwork).
Dos, my Dealer told me that this $600 / 1099 stuff will likely die. The paperwork burden is extremely high. He sounded pretty sure...
Do,
Yep, some Senators have gotten involved, and hopefully it will.
Otherwise we will be losing a lot of Dealers, esp small one's......
On your $70.00 oz. Prem, that's a lot..............but, I am sure you have your reasons for paying extra.
Anonymity!
note that they are also making a serious move to destroy the gold shares....
announcement of QE2 must be right around the corner, or some false flag op.
note that they are also making a serious move to destroy the gold shares....
announcement of QE2 must be right around the corner, or some false flag op.
Something very smelly taking place.Bad shit imminent ......................
actually, all this action today shows is just how desperate Larry Summers and crew are now.
you have a market in a fake rally
you have gold/silver being manipulated down
you have bonds. well, why anyone would buy a bond now at these rates of return, completely beyond me, tho i understand "households" are buying them by the truckload
we are heading into a firestorm.
actually, all this action today shows is just how desperate Larry Summers and crew are now.
you have a market in a fake rally
you have gold/silver being manipulated down
you have bonds. well, why anyone would buy a bond now at these rates of return, completely beyond me, tho i understand "households" are buying them by the truckload
we are heading into a firestorm.
"residual pull from the 1200 strike"? what a joke. You just don't get it... the locals are long the 1150 strike and the BBs are going to make them sweat it... and force them to cover it. How many times does it take everyone to see... the BBs will drop the market onto their short strike in the hours preceding expiry ... that way they make money AND put locals out of business... (then they can widen the b/a spread)
"General Jim's" Countdown.
Gold must now rise by $4.39 per day to reach his oft-discussed $1,650 by January 11, 2011.
The CIGA Suicide Hotline must be ablaze today.
"But Jim you promised!!!"
Same thing every day. Boring robot.
I agree, problem is, he wants the hate. You don't go to that kind of trouble up there unless you want the hate.
He/she is indeed a robot ---- and getting as bad as Johnny Cowardo.
Proud to junk your shit once again, Robot, and consign it to the memory hole where it belongs.
my first junk for robo
nothing to do with his sentiment re: gold, given that dry commentary is his general MO. (still love the wildebeasts)
all to do with the lately repeated large pics and antagonistic posture - at least lend your usual creativity (curves) to your eye-poking...
i've enjoyed much better from you, mr robo.
Those were my sentiments as well --- my growing antipathy toward RT has nothing to do with opinions on gold, and everything to do with his/her increasingly Leo-esque antagonism, the flaming of others, and the puerile and extraneous photos.
I almost asked if Leo was using Robo's identity as a sock puppet or something...I have never junked Robo before either. Hating on gold and trying to show folks they are wrong is okay. The attitude up there, that is something else.
Hey Robo, get jilted lately? Not getting enough physical?
Still love wildebeasts and and his artful eye though.
I rarely junk, and did not today.
Great seeing you MsCreant and akak on the threads again!
Anybody know what happened to Chumbawamba? After all:
He was Chumbawamba.
My bet is Chumba is among us. Cog Dis said he will not be back, a little while back, when someone else asked. I do not know the story. I misses me Chumba, too. )-;
http://www.facebook.com/people/Chumba-Wamba/1186595388
U2 funny.
good job Robot, scare them gold bug bitches, gold is going to 200 by th fall.
Oh yeah, gold will fall below half of its production costs.
Have you taken your medication today?
The post above yours is a troll of a troll, and is being sarcastic to try to emulate some of the gold "bears."
The name, Nadler, is a name that gold bugs all accuse gold bears of being, because he's supposedly bearish on gold or something. In other words, every time somebody says gold is going down, they are accused of working in the vast conspiracy of gold shorts for Mr. Nadler.
In other words, the post agrees with you.
With that said, I'd like to point out that I've never seen a gold bear on this site say that gold is going to 200. None are that unrealistic.
I have seen many posts with the price of gold going to 25000, and 54000.
In fact, I'd be willing to bet that the Nadler fellow is a man who used to post here named akak, who once made a prediction for 25000 dollar gold. He was fond of accusing others of being this Nadler fellow.
trust me, akak is not Jon Nadler.
It is vile and loathesome to even have my name mentioned in the same sentence as that of the lying, hate-filled, irrrational disinformation agent and defender of the corrupt status-quo whose initials are JN.
But thanks for standing up for me, EG --- and good to see you around! Wish I could say the same for the troll to whom you responded, Nadler's brother in spirit.
Note how our new JonNadler did not even go and snatch the real Nadler's picture over at kitco.
That may be because they felt that having a bag over the head, symbolizing being both blind and deaf, is SO much more appropriate in representing the true nature of Jon Nadler than a mere physical likeness!
But of course "our" Nadler here is just posting in jest, and is not a real troll at all.
good to see you too. when the time comes, think of me when you hurl that 100 oz brick at baghdad bob's head.
100 oz? Are you kidding? Nothing less than a 400 ouncer is worthy of being hurled at the head of Kitco's "Great Deceiver" himself! Although with my bad shoulder, I will have to be pretty close to him to heave such a heavy object with any likelihood of making contact. Being in such close proximity to pure evil will be difficult and highly unpleasant.
If you believe gold prodcution costs then you believe enron accounting.
Hey NADS,
Please,please, be correct!!!!!!!!................we could be so lucky with the NUKES coming at us.
HA ha ha, Nadler, you're finally trolling with your own name, HA HA, is this mean Jonny is on his way out?
It won't happen like that. Announcement of new and improved QE 2.0: 10% jump. Announcement of bailouts of individual states: 10% jump. Announcement of bailouts of the pentagon, SS, Medicare/Medicaid... ad infinitum.
The root issue here is the deficit.
But hey, keep thinking that deficits don't matter.
QE2 is already imminent. The fed is going to stop paying interest on all the excess reserves it holds. That excess interest is QE2. Whrere will it go? Treasuries? Gold? It won't be sitting at the Fed a 0% interest.
QE 2.0 is already in play............the PRESS just has not been made aware of it.
Dick Cheney said that deficits don't matter !!!! But he did say the Iraqnam war would pay for itself too !!!!!!!!
The "outrage" over RT's post shows that
1. Everybody here gets way too emotional over trading. People should worry more about being right than being emotional, because being right is the only thing that matters trading. Have a sense of humor. We can all disagree that gold is going to 54000 or whatever without crying every time we disagree.
2. Posters on ZeroHedge will generally junk the person who is right the most, because that person's investment ideas are typically right, which goes against the collective opinion of posters.
I've frankly never seen people get so upset over somebody claiming to be right about something. The ironic part is that the flamers often accuse other people of being flamers and trolls, when they're the people calling names due to differences in opinion.
I'm still waiting on $1220....
Did it ever cross your ADD-afflicted mind that for some, perhaps many, here, holding gold is NOT about trading at all? I dare say many more holders of gold use it as a means of savings that is essentially outside of the current corrupt and tottering Ponzi financial system. And that is exactly why governments and the power elite hate it so much.
Now, the question as to why YOU hate it so much would be fascinating to delve into.
I dare say many more holders of gold use it as a means of savings that is essentially outside of the current corrupt and tottering Ponzi financial system. And that is exactly why governments and the power elite hate it so much.
Your point is well taken. I have never sold a gold or silver coin period. I have traded some graded MS-65 for bullion coins in late 2008, but never sold for greenbacks. There is a sense of security knowing I have a substantial savings off the grid.
I view gold as the ultimate FU to the financial matrix that has enveloped the world. Gold protects us from the abuses of government and the illegitimate federal reserve system. There are times throughout history gold has restored financial security to those who chose to hold it. JB may trade it and other instruments as well. I truly wish him and others well. It is not what I do, but that is a personal choice. With that being said I don't see $25K to $50K prices per ounce, but I wouldn't complain if I did.
living & akak.
Absolutely correct about holding gold as the best protection of wealth.
Bravo did once acknowledge to me that having my 6% (soon to be 7%) in gold was no problem.
living, I do not foresee the real high fofoa-like prices, but, like you, would be very pleased if we get to 50k. As long as America still functions.
Remember, Bravo likes to have fun! Looks like akak and DosZap like to have fun too. Hell, I like to have fun too!
Let a thousand Robos grow!
DoChen, I will admit that I am skeptical as well of FOFOA's $55,000 gold, despite having read many of his arguments supporting that thesis. I think that his theory amounts to yet another "this time it's different!" argument, which does not automatically rule it out (as this time it truly IS different, if only in that the entire world is using purely fiat currency for the first time in history), but as they say, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and the evidence, at least in my eyes, for his "Freegold" scenario is still rather lacking.
This Time is Different.
That book by Reinhart and Rogoff is really good, but not an easy read.
Every single time we have one of these financial crises, ugly things happen afterwards. Every time.
...
I once thought fofoa was an extremist, and I always like reading the extremists viewpoints (ideas...).
I do not think of him as an extremist now! He, more than anyone, got me to buy more gold and faster.
I'm still trying to more fully understand freegold, for some reason (perhaps because it is counter-intuitive).
DoChen,
I have committed a lot more than 6 or 7% of my liquid assets into gold. Personal choice and also appreciation in gold price has resulted in this decision. It is and has been the right choice for me.
I see prices rising in gold and silver against all other asset classes. I am not sure and am saddened to think, what America will be in a few short years.
living,
I have NO PROBLEM with having a lot more than 7% in gold. I will likely up the %-age I keep in PMs as money trickles in.
I completely agree with your view on what America will likely become.
Saddened as well, but maybe I am also affected by a friend recently dying. A great man, many will miss him.
My condolences for sure. Puts it all in perspective doesn't it. Just remember grief can sometimes make you see things more clearly.
Best to you!
Thank you for your kind words living.
All those who fade this move with different excuses: what's keeping you from going to your bank, borrowing as much as you can, and investing it in physical gold? Your debts would be "worthless fiat", your assets pure gold. Go to the bank NOW. Just make sure you can meet the interest payments.
Looking for a better deal? There isn't. After all, hyperinflation is just around the corner, or at least that's what they say.
A large chunk of my assets is in physical gold. I look forward to adding to my position. However, what I don't like is the constant gold-bug whining about "unfair" market, manipulation, etc. There's absolutely no shortage of gold bullion for small investors. Buying futures and taking delivery works too, for the bigger guys out there.
Jim Sinclair will take a haircut, and that was long overdue. When the gold bug desperation reaches its climax, it is time to buy.
Please excuse an ignorant question, but did something in particular happen to cause both gold & silver to fall off the table at 9AM today?
Yeah, Comex opened.
So simple, so true.
When Crimex attacks....
MD HUD foreclosures are way up. There were about 40 listed per week in late summer 2008. They soared to an all-time high of 266 homes two weeks ago, but were around the 200 mark for many months prior. Last Friday beat the all-time high by one, 267 homes.
Gold is down on good housing news today.
The Judge,
Yeah,WUNNNNNNNNERFUL news!!!................up to 330k, from 300k,
WOW....I am impressed.
Plus the caveat added, that it will stop here, and go down, or be static, unless MORE QE is applied to the sector.
Anyone who thinks the drop in PM's drop was caused by this news, is on crack.
I was being sarcastic.
Thanks all. I am a long-term holder of physical silver, not a trader, and I shouldn't even be looking at day to day prices. But sometimes my curiosity gets the better of me when I see things like that. I will return to my slumbers now, check it again in a year or two...
oh my fucking god was i wrong today.... i should have paid more attention to the early put bids this morning than to the 1200 strike Open interest.
my straddles are intrinsic and what profit i could have had, i cut disastrously short. Se la Vie
Its simple really:
Everyone expects the market to dump on expiry. The public thinks its clever and buys "cheap" naked puts the day before/day of expiry. The BBs sell them the puts as a vol. trade and then drill the market right to strike...(or just above). Public flirts with glory (so they'll come back next month) but stops just shy of payout and they go out worthless. BBs walk with the dough, locals get killed trying to get short the 1150s with minutes to go.
Last time I bought any bulk silver was when the crimex knocked down March deliveries under 15 USD in february hit!!!! Haven't regretted the physical acquirement and wouldn't if we'd get under 17! Thing is there's no more silver to be had physically in quantity or all exercised options would have been full filled! Silver crimex is doomed and the bank run there has already happened!! It's just not public knowledge!! !http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/ 76 contracts is 380,000 oz of silver worth 6.8 million dollars. It is almost impossible for owners of these contracts, having deposited 6.8 million dollars
on July 1.2010 to abandon their claim. They were thus paid off handsomely to remove their bid for physical silver. The total number of silver contracts served upon already this month total 2281 or 11.4 million oz of silver. The total number of silver contracts left to be served and are standing for silver (and cannot be bribed )equals 173 notices or 870,000 oz The total number of silver oz standing for physical on this delivery month of July equals 11.4 + .87 million oz + .2 million oz= 12.47 million oz. A total of 1.0 million oz of silver have been paid in cash and probably these guys have bought future Sept contracts with their bonus dollar gains. That's a lot of nuts and sep future cash pay off for silver delivery chances are nill!! It's gone!!Comex will vaporize, blah blah. Ask Harvey if silver goes to $500 what will the dollar buy.
I note the absence of the more enthusiastic pumpers. They get excited when gold goes up 100, and the bears taunt when it goes down 100. Both are wrong. Gold doesn't go up and down at all, the silly paper dollar does.
Gold cannot double or triple in value, or have its value halved. The value of gold never changes. Only its price changes, measured second by second in fiat money. Stop confusing price with value. Stop confusing the dollar with money. Why do you think no one can ever put an accurate price 'target' on gold? Your measuring stick is broken.
Gold prices the dollar, the dollar doesn't price gold.
Now you know why goldbugs don't win the nobel prize for economics very often.
bwhahahahahaha! A digital paper ponzi thin air promise leg to stand on!! Not digitally worth the paper it's not printed on!! Historically when confidence is lost the public panics to the lowest common denominator of real money!! That would be gold/silver numbskull; not paper; not digital illusion! Now either you're part of the paper ponzi lie/digital lie or just an economics drooling vegetable!!
I agree.
Also, as fofoa said: "It's all about the ounces". Meaning the more ounces you have the better.
I'm seeing more "fofoa", becoming a meme...
fofoa.blogspot.com
No I don't,why?
This is not correct. The dollar is up in value while gold is up in value. The dollar would have had to lost 80% of its value over the last ten years to make gold's rise over the same time legitimate by your standards.
People need to understand that gold is just a commodity like everything else, whose trading sentiments can be expressed quantitatively with technical analysis.
The truth is that the technicals have been somewhat bad for gold since at least the November high, and have showed all the classic signs of topping (like triple divergences in MACD and STO)
I've never changed my tune on it, except that I believe it just may go to test 1220 again before the real tank happens. It has to be getting a bit oversold here in the near term, but today's action shows that the pain surely isn't finished.
You didn't understand anything I said. You are fixed in your own TA belief system. Reality will be a shock.
Do you EVER get embarrassed by parading your ignorance here?
I will believe your laughable assertion that "gold is just another commodity" when central banks start stockpiling cotton, rice, lumber and manganese as official reserves. Until then, common sense, the world's central banks, and 5000 years of history prove you wrong.
I will believe your laughable assertion that "gold is just another commodity" when central banks start stockpiling cotton, rice, lumber and manganese as official reserves.
Why do you believe something will happen in the future based on the actions of some asian central banks in the past decade? They bought gold as an easily storeable non-perishable commodity to hedge against dollar inflation, not because it has mystical qualities. And when they decide to stop buying, as they show some signs of doing, you'll be gold bug-gered.
Was that comment supposed to be some kind of joke?
I care not a whit (well, very little anyway) what any asian central banks have been doing over the last decade --- although it is not just some asian central banks that hold gold, nor have they been doing so over only the last decade. It is more the 5000-6000 year history of gold as money, and as the last refuge of capital under increasingly corrupt and confiscatory financial regimes, that buoy my confidence in holding it over the false and ever-illusory paper promises of sociopaths pretending to be leaders.
Really, learn a little history at least before making such blinkered and ignorant statements!
Do you have 5000-6000 years time to wait for gold to reach the ivory tower in asset heaven? No? 1000 years? 120 years? 40 years? I may have 40 years, but by that time I'm too old to enjoy anything gold could buy me. I better invest my fiat in drugs & whores now. More bang for the buck, as they say.
Then you'd be quite happy to hold your gold even if you knew it was about to revert to its 2002 value. Would you hell - you'd sell it as fast as you could (which wouldn't be fast enough I would bet.)
So by holding on to it you're just betting that Quantitive Easing will push up the price of gold as a hedge against inflation. That's perfectly reasonable, but don't spout this mumbo jumbo about 5,000 year old currencies.
I am sorry to hear that you consider history to be irrelevant, and nothing more than "mumbo jumbo", but in your arrogant ignorance, you mirror the typical American disdain for history, and thus, knowledge and wisdom.
And I must have missed the memo from God that gold is going to revert to its 2002 value. And if you believe that it is, then you must also believe that all the failings and corruption of the present financial and monetary systems have been solved and fixed, and that the dollar is going to magically begin appreciating in value. Do unicorns and leprechauns come with that scenario too?
You may pretend to ignore history, but the march of history will most assuredly thereby not ignore you.
You called me an American. Now I'm offended.
Look at the gold graph. Sometimes it goes up. Sometimers it goes down. That's fact, not Indiana Jones crazy talk. The fact that it's gone up a lot doesn't mean it won't go down. In fact it guarantees it.
Not that you're wrong about the dollar mind you.
No, I pointedly did not call you an American --- I merely stated that your views of history mirror those of most Americans, who have a disdain and ignorance of history that I have always found breathtakingly naive and dangerous (and yes, I am an American myself).
My implication in everything above was not that gold is destined to move steadily and relentless upward in price and/or value --- that is a strawman argument that I have never heard made by anyone, here or elsewhere. I merely suggested that until such time as the widespread corruption, unsustainability and fraud are excised from our finacial and monetary systems, the price of gold will inevitably be on an upward-sloping trend. That is not to imply that the value of gold will experience a corresponding increase, however.
My implication ...was not that gold is destined to move steadily and relentless upward in price ... I merely suggested that....the price of gold will inevitably be on an upward-sloping trend.
Glad you clarified that one 8-)
Seriously I think you're right about everything except the idea people will keep buying gold no matter how crowded the market gets. It looks overdue for a correction to me.
"The dollar would have had to lost 80% of its value over the last ten years to make gold's rise over the same time legitimate".....
It did loose 80% of its value....relative to gold as you pointed out. So did most other currencies, relative to gold, but not relative to one another.
QED
Ergo, the affliction of all fiat medium of exchange's store of value role failing to meet any reasonable standard.
I mostly agree with almost all that you've just said.
Gold IS just a commodity. So are FRNs. And mortgages.
As far as the rise in POG since 2000, that is just supply and demand working, as gold production peaked in 2000.
I don't know why people get so worked up over the truth
Bravo, a good friend of mine (just died yesterday, much to my great lament) always told me that the gold charts were the hardest for him to read.
He was GOOD at technical analysis, but could never make any sense out of the gold charts.
When I get done here, I will go take a quick look at VXX...
Spot on ITG.
Vale vs. Price is the key.
And we are currently living in schizo-price land.
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/07/24/value-vs-price/
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
what happens when gold enters bubblemania? Or, when the world realizes there isn't that much physical to satisfy true needs?
Oh, there's enough physical to satisfy true "needs." The question is whether there's enough to satisfy "wants."
"Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not any man's greed."
Attributed to Gandhi.
Another one:
"It is better to be violent, if there is violence in our hearts, than to put on the cloak of non-violence to cover impotence. Violence is any day preferable to impotence. There is hope for a violent man to become non-violent. There is no such hope for the impotent."
That is not correct gold can and does drop in value. It can also rise in value. You can't measure value of *any* good directly, only its exchange ratio with other goods. It doesn't matter whether the good is a consumption good, capital good, or monetary good. All you can measure is exchange ratios, and there's no one universal "fixed" thing against which all other things can be "objectively" measured. You can measure the value of gold in dollars, euros, yen, McDonald's cheeseburgers, or hour of a Wal-Mart cashier's labor. Gold's value goes up when people want more of it as compared to other economic goods, and it goes down when people want less of it.
Subjective theory of value, bitchez.
Those kilo bars give me extra pleasure on a day like this.
didn't elizabeth say, "expect absolutely nothing to happen today?"
even by 9:01 AM something absolutely did i would say, no matter where gold and silver end the day.
she must be discounting all manipulations in her daily fixes. though i enjoy reading them, she is often way off base. blind to the elephant in the room i guess.
+
yes i said that. adnd i was extremely wrong. as stated above. no defense. it cost me money as well. i rarely make calls on market direction, only what to do If the market does something and why it did it. i expected options expiry to give a brief respite in the sell off and then to crap out tomorrow after the the 1200s went off the board. but i was way off. i am long the 1200 straddle today, and as a result hedged my gamma very early, so it hurt me for real.
as for elephants, perhaps.
nobody's perfect. Please keep your reports coming though, your insights are always interesting.
sorry to hear you got smacked down today - i think a lot of people did.
didn't know it was you posting as fmxconnect, elizabeth. i do visit your website most every weekday. i just think that anyone tracking gold or silver nowadays has to be doing it with the PTB's interests in mind first and foremost. everything else is secondary at best.
If that's a quiet day in gold, god save you from busy days.
Gold is subject to the same technicals as any other market-traded instrument. Nothing goes up in a straight line forever.
It's been my argument all along, since 100 dollars ago in the price of gold.
When gold is up ten dollars for thirty days in a row nobody cries manipulation. When it's down twenty, or forty, it's all due to the "vast conspiracy".
Nothing goes in a straight line forever and sentiments change...
The drops and rises seem to occur in straight lines.... more often than not
Lol, look behind the curtain. The more your technical analysis works, the more manipulated the market!
We expect the price of gold to increase - as there are more & more fiats chasing less and less physical! That this doesn't continue to happen is all the proof we need!
BTW, what did you do with all the old Johnny Bravo(s)? They been sent to mine coal?
crimex will make silver physical deliveries Sep,, if illusion becomes truth and crimex goons can run round the noose they themselves created and find a corner to shit silver bricks to crimex delivery specs!! Treason season for cftc rat basturds!! Truth is self evident and the silver crimex is gone!! No doubt as the sun follows night the rats scurry at dawn!!
Is that a plunge or what: gold at ~1162 - what, from here?
Well,...
Lets wait and see.
ed: LOL - corrected price.
Mining earniings season kicks of with NEM this week. I'm guessing most of them will have an average of at least 1200 an ounce. go figure where the value investors are
Considering today's price action in Gold, all I can say is:
THANK YOU JPM!
you're short too, Gordy? I suppose, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em!
"Say it ain't so Joe!"
I suspect GG is just happy to buy at this level... just checked outside and the sky is not falling as we speak, so I must be right!
SRV,
Last I remember GG, said go 100% GOLD, and he guaranteed you would be a very happy person...........
There is no way the USD lives..........( if your holding them when it loses Reserve status,,,,,,,woe unto you.)
Don't worry, I'm with GG... except I like good mining stocks (outside the US)... I just couldn't believe GG would short gold, and it turns out I was right (see below).
No, just happy for the discount for the physical [metal].
Bought yesterday (OK, bad timing), but I will buy more soon. Physical.
Yes. Thank you Gentle Ben.
There's this strange idea out there that PMbugs somehow should have their tail between their legs when they are knocked down in price.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
I knew I woke up with some morning wood for a reason today.
I'm consumed with an overwhelming feeling of thankfulness to our benefactors at JPM for giving me even more time to stock up.
when the house of cards comes down...better have gold and silver...and its coming down...name one good economic report since this last rally started..what june home sales were up 23%..from the all time low number they were..it was the worst june on record..and yet..the market got hard...the viagra is about to wear off. and yes the corporations are making money..so were the freakin concentration camps..the corporations are not reflective of the REAL economy....Pitty the fools without gold and silver....has always been the same outcome...will be the same this time..imbeciles like Johhny Bravo will be out looking for road kill as their dollars will buy nothing..
Let's see! Only down 13.5% since your buddy's Sprott tout 2 months ago.
And up 25% over the last 12 months. Next.
Absolutely nothing happened today. http://www.dallasgop.org/uploads/0000/0140/nothing_to_see_here.jpg
I've found some interesting corrolations in the gold market and eur/chf. Compare the eur/chf monthly chart with the gold/usd chart. Look at March-May 2008, august-october 2008 and June-July 2009.
The euro always seems to go up against the franc in a corrolated manner to gold going down against the dollar. My suspicion is that the SNB is liquidating gold to slurp up euros.
These aren't long-term trends -- obviously,gold recovers and blasts upward again, while the franc keeps getting smothered. But the big moves seem to corrolate during the timeframe of the move.
aaron,
SNB gots no Gold,( they dumped it a while back) at least not enough left to make a dent.
The futures postions say 1160 ... so 1160 it must be ... for today.
So far, so good.
You can run the paper ponzi; digital circle of mark to fantasy illusion all the live long day as long as the goons may perpetuate a lie!! There is no monetary store of value in paper period when excesses beyond all excesses; beyond all exageration becomes incomprehensible by sane people!! This paper ponzi; digital electronic lie has run it's course as the truth will be self evident in exposing all false premise by the rat basturd goon governments dialing for profits!!