This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Morning Gold Fix: July 8, 2010

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Commentary courtesy of www.fmxconnect.com

On Wednesday, gold opened at $1194.0 per 100 troy ounces and wavered around 1200 before settling just below at 1198.9, marking another new 6 week low. However a boost in confidence has seen a rise in this mornings prices, with gold now holding above 1200.

Yesterdays’ activity was constructive, even if measured in dead cat bounce terms. Gold opened very weakly and chopped around gradually working its way up to 1198. Big buying came in and pushed the market through 1200 relatively easily however after Comex closed and the DX weakened. It might be safe to say, that the Euro crisis premium is out of the market now, considering the inverted dollar relationship seems to be reasserting itself. But we will see. Translation: gold would then be priced like a commodity, not an alternative to fiat again.

If this is true, expect smaller ranges, false breakouts and choppy prices. Also if it is true, then we will see the market begin to price in QE2. How that affects Gold is anyone’s guess. My own would be to go long Oil and short Gold until some other Euro based headline gets traction.

Bullion Dealers and the Comex/OTC Arb

Let’s get right to it.

Bullion dealers provide liquidity for clients seeking to add or subtract risk from their own portfolios. They operate as brokers, advisors, and counterparties to their clients at various times during dealings. For our example today, we are focusing on the counterparty aspect of a dealer/ client relationship.

1. A miner calls his bullion banker to do a trade to lock in some cash flows and hedge flat price risk on his production 1 year from now.

2. The Dealer makes him a market based on many things, but for our purposes, let’s just say he makes a flat market at true value of the gold price. This will be a profitless trade in a 100% efficient marketplace for price. His price is for physical gold priced forward 1 year. Call it August 2011

3. The miner enters into a contract agreeing to sell him the metal at the agreed on price in Aug 2010, or the contract is cash settled at that time, depending on the terms they work out.  For our example, we will assume the trade will be physically settled. The 2 entities use ISDAs to settle the capital requirements. Essentially, the Dealer’s firm clears the trade bilaterally, OTC.

4. The Dealer has unhedged price risk.  He has several major choices if he wishes to remain as market neutral as possible.

a. Call another OTC Dealer and sell to that dealer what was sold to him (August2011). In effect doubling counterparty credit risk and removing flat price risk.

b. Call another OTC Dealer and sell a Spot contract to him. In effect doing the same as in “a” but adding the extra wrinkle of term risk (spot to Aug 2011)

c. Hedge the Aug 2011 forward risk on Comex using the Aug2011 future. The effect is creating a forward to future basis trade. Common in currency arbs as well as cash versus futures arb in equities.

d. Hedge the Aug 2011 forward risk on Comex front month futures. This is the risk of “c”  above with the added dimension of term risk being layered on.

Tomorrow: What factors influence the Bullion Dealer’s choice in making his hedging decision.; or weighing  Execution, Counterparty, and Exit Risk

August gold was up 2.1 to $1201.0 per 100 troy ounces as of 7:16 AM EST, this morning. The September U.S. dollar index was up .042 to 84.080. October platinum was up 6.1 to $1532.5 per 50 troy ounces. Silver was up 6.0 cents to 18.060.

-Elizabeth Thawne

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:00 | Link to Comment CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

Hello? Is there any body in there ...?      ... just nod if you can hear me.

 

Is anyone looking at the chart as compared to yesterday?  Even the Kitco Chart shows almost a perfect overlap on the drop today.   Almost a perfectly timed trace.   If I was a conspiracy theorist I would say that this is a message -- like "watch this beeach!"

 

Co-ink-a-dink?  I don't think so.  more like ... deliberate shorting while central banks are moving tons of the yellow stuff.  

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Central-banks'-gold-with-BIS-29758-3-1.html

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:25 | Link to Comment FranSix
FranSix's picture

The only piece of paper out there that is fixed to the price of gold are gold leases.  And when the price is fixed to the lease, what happens?  They get sold.  So where does this occur? London.  Closes 11am - 11:30 am EDT.  And when do these sales have their greatest effect?  When the discount rate is rising.  Otherwise they would bounce off.

Now, if central banks were buying back their own gold leases much like a QE programme of buying your own treasuries, in order to keep lease rates negative, that would be manipulation.  Or, if the amount of gold being leased out is actually 100X smaller than the amount of leases, then that too is manipulation, but you would call that overleveraged.  So you can say that perhaps the bullion banks, which were affected exactly the same way as other banks and stopped borrowing, left it up to central banks to buy up the leases.  A QE regime to prop up the bullion banks would cause no small level of consternation amongst the investing crowd that taxpayer money is being used to buy gold leases.

I would say at this point that there is a much greater likelihood that interest rates will change on bullion leases than there would be on treasuries.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 23:09 | Link to Comment TheJudge2012
TheJudge2012's picture

Question: How does the COMEX get its gold? Could they be filling up? They've had a ton of calls in the money over the last several months.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Gold to 50 bajillion trillion, bitchez!

Wen da you ess becomes Zimbabwe, or Weimar Germany, canned hamz!

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 12:53 | Link to Comment boeing747
boeing747's picture

Buy commodities when dollar is still 'strong', somebodies must short them and buy them in volumes right now.

A question: why Barrick Gold (ABX)  lost huge money while Gold price hits all time high? Anyone has answer? Maybe ABX was shorting the very product it produced but physical market gone the other direction.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 11:20 | Link to Comment herry
herry's picture

Really this is a great post from an expert and thank you very much for sharing this valuable information with us................. windows vps | cheap vps | forex vps | cheap hosting

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!