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Morning Gold Fix: June 15, 2010
Courtesy of by www.fmxconnect.com
Moody’s cut its rating for Greece to junk last night, and the Euro shrugged it off further stabilizing around 1.226 as of this writing (short squeeze coming?). Nothing like closing the barn door after the horse is gone, dead, buried, comes back as a zombie, and then gets killed again now is there Moody’s?
There has been so much written of late about gold, most of it sensationalist crap, which is a related in part to the difficulty for analysts to put a financial measurement on it. We like that. Because it makes it harder for the sell side investment banks to brand and own it as their recommendation. In some ways it is truly a populist product. Sure, launched ETFs are not unlike IPOs that have been branded by the banks that underwrite them. But we are increasingly seeing a diversification within the move to Gold. As the trend becomes more secular, the public is putting money into gold ETFs. Meanwhile, those with ETF holdings and the financial means are rolling their positions uphill to physical gold. Our own evidence is the increase in commission rates coin and bar dealers are charging on top of spot. It is increasing due to “demand”.
Among the more lucid research on gold we cite the recent conference call by UBS sell side. We will be posting and sharing this including charts soon. In the mean time, here are some excerpts:
UBS: Gold For Beginners (Partial Transcript)
“How should we think about gold?
This has to be one of the favorite questions of nearly every investor we encounter, and despite our lack of specialized knowledge and our relative focus on the emerging universe we very often get dragged off into speculative discussions on the nature of gold demand and what gold prices are "telling us".
With this in mind we felt it was high time to host a conference call on the topic, and last week we invited our true specialists, UBS global commodity research analyst Julien Garran and precious metals trading strategist Edel Tully, to give their views on the underlying nature of the market and their forecasts for pricing and volumes going forward.
Forget the fundamentals, for now.If we had to summarize the conclusions on gold in a single phrase - keeping in mind that this is a bit of an exaggeration, and one to which Julien and Edel might well take exception - we would say "forget about the fundamentals".
What do we mean? Well, one of the key messages from the discussion below is that more traditional supply and demand factors such as mine production and jewelry demand have clearly had only a very limited impact on price dynamics over the past half-decade. Instead, the biggest driver of demand has been investment-related purchases.
And when we talk about investment demand, there are two main drivers:
inflation and risk. I.e., gold does well when buyers are worried about inflation prospects, debt monetization and the debasement of national currencies, and also does well in an environment of heightened volatility and fear about the global economy.
What do we expect going forward? For the time being we expect the "fear trade" to continue to support gold prices - and over the medium term, ongoing monetization of the developed sovereign debt overhang also suggests that gold will outperform. The likely transition of global central banks from net sellers to net buyers is also a significant positive factor. And again, this despite relatively flat mine supply and falling "underlying" jewelry and technical demand.”
August gold was up 1.6 to $1226.1 per 100 troy ounces as of 8:09 AM EDT, this morning. The June U.S. dollar index was down .016 to 86.780. July platinum was down 5.9 to $1557.5 per 50 troy ounces. Silver was down 2.1 cents to 18.390.
-Elizabeth Thawne
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Fix, bitchez
premiums on gold bars and coins have gone down, not up, at least here in the U.S.
The public is using ETFs, not physical to invest in gold. Absent a scandal with the ETFs, I don't think that is going to change.
I'm still seein north of $50 above spot and usually a $35 B/A spread...gone down from where? They used to be 15 or 20 bucks
used to be about $60 over from the major online dealers for much of the past 2 years.
Agreed!
Absolutely agree, but when the scandal.... then the party begins.
troll of the day award, you decide
As suggested earlier, the EURUSD daily chart is giving bullish signals.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
The anti-gold sentiment has certainly grown in the MSM. The PTB are grasping at straws and hate losing their control; flailing out at every last bit of truth remaining before the house of cards tumbles.
Gold is still holding at record highs I guess that has escaped them. People don't trust central banks, governments and fiat currencies; that has escaped them. Anything honest escapes them.
MSM has joined the ranks of TBN (Trinity Broadcast Network).
They're selling the product called 'delusions,' as its known in some circles.
http://twentypercent.tv/2010/06/15/meltup-—-the-us-financial-crisis-part-2/
the peasantry has to be herded into the gold ETFs here in the States. as they are managed by the bullion banks, which manage the price on the Comex, it allows for greater control of the situation.
and it will allow the maximum theft from the peasants when the time comes.
which is as it should be because under no circumstances can the peasantry be allowed to safeguard their assets by investing in actual bullion. their assets belong to the major banks, the peasants just haven't figured this out yet.
All that I can say is, "F**K the peasants!".
I and many others have been attempting for the last DECADE to get the peasants to LISTEN. We have become SOCIAL OUTCASTS among family and friends.
For several years I and many others have been SCREAMING about ETFs. I wrote the FIRST missive about the situation and posted it on the old Financial Sense Online Forum, since NO site would publish it, INCLUDING GATA. It warned about just what the ETFs are and what will happen.
The peasants are TOO DAMN LAZY to research and learn about the PM Sector. Soooooooo...LET THEM ROT IN HADES WHEN IT ALL IMPLODES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I definitely feel your frustration and I have sheep in my my family too. But, they are coming around slowly. I've switched tactics, now when something in their World goes wrong, I start in with "told you so".
Also, I don't give anything (as far as gifts) that aren't silver. My two nephews and niece get graded Morgans for ever birthday, Xmas, and if they do very well in school.
My Mother gets fractional gold coins and sometimes gold jewelery.
It seems to be having a small effect. They just need to be re-educated! I will never give up on my immediate family!
Furthermore, if I have to take them in when the SHTF, they won't be totally broke!
Gifts do seem to work well. I gave my father an American Eagle and a few other silver coins for his last few Christmas/birthday presents from me. Imagine my surprise when he told me he was finally putting 10% of his sizable portfolio into silver, and 5% into gold.
There might be something to gift giving--maybe it makes people see that metals are truly precious when they get them as presents.
I harangued my dad until he finally put a good chunk into gold and a little bit of silver. Now I'm working on part 2, trying to get him to go all in, or at least with another sizable chunk. He worked too fucking hard within this fucked up system to see him lose it, so even though he resists, I keep working on him.
I think next time I bring it up I'll just play on his emotions like a drum and just beat him down until he goes and withdraws all his savings and takes it over to the gold dealer with me in tow to make sure he completes the deed.
I am Chumbawamba.
Seconded.
The herd did a good job policing itself as the shepherd prepared the slaughterhouse. I cried out back then, when we could still run. At the time, it was "f*ck the nonbeliever".
They made us crazy. And now we should be compassionate?
F*ck the peasants. Bring out Samson.
Be careful who you talk to about the pending disaster. Work friends and acquaintances won't listen to you now and will find you annoying, then forget you brought it up. Until hyperinflation hits, and then they'll definitely remember you have gold.
Be careful even telling family, because if they don't "get it" they might mention to their neighbors about their brother/son/cousin who has a stash of gold and tried to convince them to buy some.
It's like trying to get people to vote for free markets. They don't like them psychologically, it annoys them to have you question their beliefs, and it doesn't change the political landscape. Ludwig von Mises laid it all out for us and instead of a 75 foot high statue on Wall Street, he's barely mentioned (if at all) in Econ textbooks, let alone history books.
Cover your own ass and your immediate family's--and maybe friends that you'd trust with your life. And know that everyone you talk to will end up at your house asking to take food out of your kid's mouths. Keep it zipped, is my advice.
*****"There's only one way that two people can keep a secret, and that's if one of them is dead."--Winston Churchill
Physical Metals Real-time Trading System> https://www.bulliondirect.com/nucleo/
This is a unique system and has been gaining in popularity for several years. Other than the novice participants on eBay, this system gives a pretty good idea about the premiums or lack-there-of at any point-in-time.
The Nucleo system are people from all walks of life.
Thanks for the link. That is an interesting concept indeed.
I was watching "Pawn Stars" last night. Some guy brings in old railroad coins that were used by the RR companies to make the workers have to buy co. products and keep the workers indebted to them for life.
The Pawn guy said these relics were good to keep around so that we never forget how wrong it was. Excuse me, but the railroad now is the government and FRN's are now the worthless money used to keep us all indebted.
Long live gold!
I watched that and you are spot on! BTW, if I was that other guy who had that sunken treasure bar of gold, no way would I have sold it. He got ripped-off!
Nouriel Roubini this AM on prospects of double dip (video)
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/06/video-nouriel-roubini-speculates...
ETFs are an ingenious scam, that simultaneously allows
1. Fed Primary Dealer Banks such as JPM to divert gold demand away from physical into paper so JPM can maintain their Comex shorts
2. Allow JPM as a ETF GLD 'authorized particpant' to lay claim to the gold that GLD actually does have, while other smaller investors are left holding the bag, after basically buying 'authorized particpants' the physical that is available in GLD. Ingenious.
Yes, forget the fundamentals.
G Gordon Liddy, the shoeshine boy, and every out-of-work B actor who can't fake a good euro-accent has got it right on gold(!).
What, me worry? Tulip bulbs, anyone?
Well, at least you can eat tulip bulbs.
You can eat gold, too.
Goldschläger ftw!
You can't eat a promise to pay.
I am Chumbawamba.
The crooked crooks continue to defile the AU market with constant twaddle--continuing to beat the drum of US bonanza(more mope) in Afghanistan--didnt know we added a star on the flag for them??--gold short term lease rates are negative which means one thing--we will pay you to short gold--doesnt seem to be working but something to watch none the less. I smell the desparation.
For anyone who really cares to be objective, the market manipulation is clear.
The Fed orders their henchmen to buy the S&P and sell gold, thereby creating the illusion that all is well. If the market were allowed to trade on its own, gold would be skyrocketing and the S&P would be tanking. This cannot be allowed! The "system" would collapse almost overnight.
By having the Goon Squad manipulate the market, the Fed et al can continue to buy time.
But people seem to think that the Comex is the only gold market in the world.
What about the London market, the European markets, the Indian market, the Chinese & Asian markets? The bullion banks control all of those too?
They do. The Crimex is certainly the largest and most visible. Just as world equity markets follow the NYSE and Nasdaq, global gold markets follow the Crimex.
Additionally, any worldwide gold rally, which usually happens overnight in New York, is then mercilessly beaten back by the Goon Squad at 8:00 am EDT every morning. Anyone with a brain and eyes can see this.
Tyler:
Thank you for posting the gold fix. Nothing is more entertaining than the comments on a gold thread. By nothing, I mean NOTHING, not even porn.
Goldies are one insecure bunch. Not only do they love gold, they want you to love it too. They can't believe that anyone would forego the high carrying costs and high transaction costs of physical to speculate in paper gold. Gotta touch it, even if just for a minute, right? See, it really is like porn.
Anyway, just wanted to say thanks. Even though the comments aren’t nearly as useful as they used to be, they’re a lot more fun to read while waiting for my stop to trip.
-1...Jealous, much! Stop spending your money on porn and maybe you could afford 1/10 of an ounce of gold!
Oh, and btw, when your FRN's are no good and your on the corner saying "brother can you spare a dime"; the answer is HELL NO!
High carrying costs? Not if you put it in your own safe. Then if we assume a $50 premium for Bullion purchase over spot, and a $20 premium over spot for sale for bullion, then the buy/sell differential of $30 for a ~1200 item is a whole whopping 2.5% -- without any counter party risk!
People who talk about theft --don't tell anyone what you have. the random thief isn't going to spend hr's trying to break into your safe bolted to the floor!
Breaking into safe video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBhOjWHbD6M
a proper safe will cost between 10 and 20 grand...
You don't need to spend that much. Beware this video is from a safe company that wants to sell you their expensive safes. Note the safe wasn't bolted to the floor. Image how much harder it would have been to do what they did with it up-right!
Don't buy a cheap safe, but you don't need to spend a boat-load either. And a safe is useful for many things, and should truly last a lifetime. You do not need a safe the sizes they show on the video either (unless you are trying to store over $10M, in which case spending even $10,000 on a safe, as a one-time capital cost is no big deal.
Good points. I don't want folks to get a false sense of security though.
Even bolted down, one of these cheap safes could be opened quickly if the motivation was high enough...
There's size/strength variables. Big safes are not strong. Small safes are. You don't need a big ass stand up safe for gold. You can't do all those tricks those guys did on a small safe. The doors won't budge. You have to drill them though they are easier to take away to drill.
A good safe is only as strong as its lock.
I acquired a Cheney-esque (i.e. "man-sized") safe for the cost of hauling a while ago. The only problem with it was that it was locked and no one knew the combination. A friend of a friend just happened to be a locksmith, so one fine Sunday he came over and drilled out the combo lock and replaced it with a new one. Total time: less than an hour, with drilling out the lock taking less than half an hour (he could've probably done it in less than 10 minutes if we weren't bullshitting the entire time).
Just because you have a safe doesn't mean your stuff is protected. You still need good physical security of the location where the safe is and additional perimeter security. Just think of a safe as a device to slow down a thief.
The best security system is a combination of multiple elements. The most important element of all is secrecy: don't go blabbing across town to all your friends and family that you have a safe full of gold. In the worst of times you'll see the worst of people, and stuff that you would consider beyond the pale today will be normal fare then.
It's best to have multiple hiding places that are all secure to one extent or another. Never keep your entire stash in one place. Diversify to the extent possible. Have good locks on your doors. Have good locks on your gates and high fences. Get a good dog. Buy a gun. Don't forget the bullets.
I am Chumbawamba.
It wouldn't be THAT much harder. Double the time it takes to open it, even triple it: you're still under six minutes. And just because it's a sales job doesn't mean the result is exaggerated.
The safe they show in the video is a gun safe, made for long rifles and shotguns. Yes, you can also store your gold in there, but a safe with gold is better kept out of sight. An in-ground safe or something hidden in the wall behind a picture is much more appropriate.
I am Chumbawamba.
A good, small, floor safe, bolted to the floor in your closet will cost less than $600 installed. You need one of these anyways for your important papers. Gold will go in there easily. 99.9999% of random thieves aren't going to be able to get into a safe like this, and the 10-20 in the country with the ability to do so efficiently aren't going to be coming after little-old-you. Hell, even if you have a $100 safe from Wal-mart, so long as you bolt it to the floor, 99.99% of thieves aren't going to be able to get at it, as it requires a blow torch or other cutting tool. If you have guns in there, they run the risk of having ammo go off by cutting in with a torch. That's a bit too dangerous for the possibility of finding some gold. More likely, they will skip the safe if they can't cart it away, and instead just spend the time robbing another house.
For those of you with guns, you should have a gun safe already. A good one is $1000-1200 (though they go much higher), and can hold a LOT of gold in addition to your guns. As mentioned above, even a super cheap safe is enough to keep the vast majority of thieves out, though the cheap ones offer no fire or water protection, which you will want for storing anything other than metal.
I should add that I have had my house robbed before, but they never touched the safe, as it was bolted both to the wall behind it and to the floor. They would have needed a sherman tank to get it out, and there probably isn't a thief on the planet that goes into a house with a blowtorch unless they know they are after a safe.
If your house is carpeted, I recommend:
1. Peel carpet back in your biggest closet. Jackhammer a hole in the concrete big enough for a floor safe. Install floor safe and bolt it down, sunk into the concrete so it's almost flush with the floor when installed. Place concrete block over the safe with swivel D-ring installed. Flip carpet back.
2. Place cheap piece of shit safe from Wal-Mart on top of real safe, not bolted to anything (easily pick-up-able). Insert lead bars so cheap piece of shit safe from Wal-Mart is heavy as hell. Close door and spin the wheel.
3. If you're really interested in catching the bad guys afterwards, insert a cell phone inside the Wal-Mart safe. Charge it every weekend. After the robbery, notify cops of an easy bust if they contact Verizon to triangulate position of that phone when they force the door open at their burglar hideaway.
4. After you get the phone call that the cops have arrested the thieves, cackle like an evil genius while stroking your cat.
You're a total cock, but this did give me an idea: what type of ESN is sent along on a cell phone with no SIM (if it needs one) but that still has 911 (emergency) service? If the ESN of the phone is still transmitted during a 911 call, even when it does not have subscription service, then it would be possible to rig the phone so that when the safe is opened it is triggered to dial 911, putting the records in the hands of law enforcement. From there it's just a quick SQL query to find the needle in the haystack and bam.
Anyway, this is just nerd masturbation.
I am Chumbawamba.
You are both total cocks. Good luck getting a signal out of a safe, even with one side open. If I break open a safe and see a cell phone, its going under my boot...
I am honored to be mentioned in the same breath as Chumbawumba, even if he and I are 100% opposed on the Israeli thing. And just because you're smart enough to recognize the threat Hulk, most dumb ass thieves wouldn't. They'd hold it up and grunt "why'd he put a cellphone in a safe? That don't make no sense!"
JUNK! I posted earlier a link to a site that I use and have used for the last DECADE. I have made MOST of my purchases BELOW SPOT PRICE, due to the benefits of being allowed to POST A BID. People who got nervous and/or needed FRNs would DUMP their metals into my Bid.
I have made a few purchases at other sites, NEVER with the ridiculous premiums claimed in your JUNK!
But since virtually NO ONE bothers to READ these damn posts and merely posts JUNK out of TOTAL IGNORANCE...
The quoted snippet is not news, although the way it is written seems to indicate we are experiencing something unique. In reality, people are moving back to gold as fiat currencies fail, as has happened many times in the past. It is just new to this generation, which has not lived through a real gold currency age. (The gold 'exchange' standard was a facade to fool the public and steal wealth from other countries, and therefore is not indicative of gold as a usable currency).
In this case, the article is really talking about current demand vs long term demand. Current demand is equal to what people currently are seeking from the market. Note that because gold is not as 'industrial' as other commodities like silver and copper, most of mined reserves are still in existence. So regardless of what current demand is from a commodity or investment perspective, these factors do not pull the price far in either direction. They cannot, because this is not the primary factor in determing gold's 'price' relative to fiat currencies.
The reason gold has marched onward is because it is what a bond is reputed to be, but isn't. That is, a safe store of value. Gold doesn't lose value to inflation, such as a bond does, beause gold's true market value isn't fixed at some arbitrary face like a bond is. When you have runaway inflation, for which we are at the beginning stages now, the returns on bonds in yield terms don't equate with lost purchasing power from inflation rates.
Gold, OTOH, being the best currency as yet in our history, raises in value when fiat currencies are inflated. The 'fear' factor mentioned in the article is just another name for people moving away from fiat currency to the real one. History shows that gold is not a great 'investment' in that it does not provide a rate of return, but that it is a safe store of value, and as such, suffices as a good currency because value is held within the substance itself. No counterparty risk.
So, the large price spike is a result of fiat currencies flooding the market, and inflating the price of gold. The purchasing power of gold is the same as now as in 1903 terms. The 'price' is just a signal that we have more paper currency floating about. This is not an investment, just gold's tendency to reflect value in whatever current inflationary value fiat currency is at. This is gold's long term price emerging from the shadows.
Why is it happending so fast, and why wasn't the price of gold steadily rising to reflect long term demand? Price manipulation by banks that were net sellers. You see the largest spike in gold prices not when the public began buying after the Euro bailout, but when banks in China, Japan, India, and other nations reversed from net sellers (to keep the price down) to net buyers (which demanded the long term price up). Because central banks can purchase large quantities, they can affect the long term price, which is the largest component.
That is the stage we are in now. When the public begins to lose faith in the debts of nations first, and subsequently the currencies (because they are very closely related to each other), then the price of gold will begin it's final spike upward in terms of fiat currency values. This stage will probably run full steam in 5 - 10 years (depending on whose prediction you believe). When the Euro currency fails first, as it will because the dollar is the reserve currency in which all others are pyramided on top of each other, the price of gold will spike in those areas. This is why you see a street spot price of 1700 for gold in Greece, as recently reported on Zero Hedge from coinupdate.com. This is why, also from coinupdate.com, the inventories of European gold merchants has basically disappeared. Eventually, the debt (currency) crisis will spread, and prices will begin to pop in other regions. As more currencies fail, the world's population will begin to demand gold. Because we will have billions of people demanding it, instead of only a few million, THEN you will see the price of gold rise very quickly and beyond that of what a central bank can manipulate.
There will be arbitrage opportunities for investors during these stages. As European currencies fail, those that figure out how to sell from US and Asia to Europe (by keeping costs low) will make a quick profit in the difference not between an ounce of gold here and an ounce of gold there, but in the relative worth of fiat currencies. Again, because the US dollar is the reserve currency, US citizens will have the most chance of profiting from coming currency failures, at least until the US currency fails. At that time, gold is likely to resume it's place as the world reserve currency. Those that hold it will be able to buy stuff. Those that don't, will have to start earning it and be the new working classes.
This will come to pass, unless the international bankers can manage to foist SDRs upon the world community as a new reserve currency in a bid to enslave people to inflationary fiat currencies forever. The G20 is talking about this now, but there is resistence. Hopefully we revert to a gold standard and individual liberty and do not allow a global central bank with centralized control to emerge from the current crisis.
Very well written I might add. I think the idea of a world currency is high on the agenda of the elites as you point out. Their ability to seize or confiscate physical gold in our/your position drives the "anointed ones" absolutely crazy. They can't steal it by inflation and can't seize it electronically. Worst of all it is a report card exposing the fraud perpetrated by the oligarchy.
Thank you. I wanted to add another comment regarding the central bank buying of gold. They are getting most of it from the IMF, although China being a large producer is also buying local supply. I believe the IMF is doling out gold stocks to the regional central banks in an attempt to continue the manipulation of gold downward. While the gold spiked up as central banks purchased from the IMF, I believe in the short run, the scheme is to suppress the price as the regional central banks begin to sell their gold stocks again.
Or, if the central banks decide not to play the role of good little children to the IMF superbank, then you could see central banks holding their gold as collapse insurance. China, for example not being the reserve currency holder and also being a large gold producer, could just decide 'what the hell' and keep their reserves and not act to supress the price of gold. If they do so, it would be a courageous power play in the world of central banks. China could be positioning itself as the NEXT reserve currency nation when the G20 comes to the table in future negotiations.
In support of this, we also notice China buying all sorts of commodities and stocking them up in excess of what a normally rebouding economy would require. China could be positioning itself as a wealthy commodity nation when fiat currencies fail, in the case the IMF is not able to make SDRs the new reserve fiat currency.
China is hedging their bets. I also think the banking cabal in the US is in denial, and subservient to the Britain banks. Even though the US seems to be the puppetmaster, I believe the ultimate banking power currently resides in the UK and Europe. JP Morgan was a tool of the House of Rothschilds.
Even though the US seems to be the puppetmaster, I believe the ultimate banking power currently resides in the UK and Europe. JP Morgan was a tool of the House of Rothschilds.
We definitely agree thats for sure....
Thank you for your post, that was nicely done. Clear and concise.
I'm always amazed at the number of people who fail to understand that money in their bank is not their money. Since money is fungible it goes to the bottom line of the bank and is not earmarked as belonging to any one depositor. Money in a simple savings account is "invested" money, meaning that the depositor has lost ALL control of the money's fate. Stock, and bonds are "investements" as well, meaning no control. If you are fortunate enough to recover your money then you are the lucky one when TSHTF. The only way to control your own wealth is to put it in precious metals. The public education as it concerns banking is totally lacking.
If you want to know about gold, why listen to amateurs talk about it?
http://jsmineset.com
JIM SINCLAIR BITCHES!!
I am Chumbawamba.
goldsilver.com , also check out Michael's book
http://www.usagold.com/ , also check out his Michael Kosares' book
Coinupdate.com
Bullionbullscanada.com
Many good sites out there, put them all together and you have a nice read.
I like silver because I can buy it in half bags of Pre 1965 quarters and dimes and it has very low carrying and transactional costs and is very liquid. The 1/2 bags have other benefits which you might be able to guess.
Silver actually is a great investment. Global supplies are down to 4 months of demand. Stockpiles are at all time lows, and demand is very high. There isn't another single metal on the periodic chart that does all of the things that silver does, as well as it does.
At some point, the price of silver should hit triple digits or more. If an adequate substitute is not found before current and mineable stocks get really low, then the price could hit triple digits per ounce, in today's dollars.
The 'junk' coins are the best buy per ounce. I can get them at APMEX for 40 cents over spot on a $1000 face value bag. That's 2.1%, very good. The only drawback is to get to the pure metal, they have to be melted and there is a cost for that.
Good article from Joseph Heller:
TheForm.action='/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=11466';A Textbook Example Of Gold Price Manipulation
I think that is Patrick Heller. Joseph Heller wrote "Catch-22", though, which is somewhat related. :-)
Yup. My mistake. You got the Catch 22 right!
Silver rules