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Morning Gold Fix: June 22, 2010
Commentary courtesy of www.fmxconnect.com
Gold washed out after a promising start on Monday, with the August future reaching an all-time high of $1266.5 per 100 troy ounces before an epic collapse. Gold fell about $35 to a low of $1231.6 before recovering slightly and closing at $1240.7, almost a 2 percent loss for the day. The selling has resumed in early morning and overnight trading as anxious investors take profits and question whether gold is overbought.
Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?
With all the news, rumors and factors that came out on the bullish side yesterday and last weekend it should be obvious to everyone why the market was lower; The Chinese have a time machine and knew what they were going to say before they did it. Then having positioned themselves before the event, they sold into the rally.
Fact is, despite China’s decoupling statement they elected to leave the USDCNY unchanged for the moment. The real culprit behind yesterday’s selloff is the poverty mentality of Gold longs. Gold bulls suffered through slow climbs backed with calamitous selloffs for years. The 13 year bear market in gold has scarred many people into thinking that the yellow metal cannot hold onto its rallies. Comex open interest hit all time highs yesterday, that must be bearish! Thus, the prophecy fulfills itself. “Gold is up how much? Better take our profits, we got lucky” is what hedge fund managers say whenever gold makes them any money whatsoever. This is where the expression A Bull market climbs a wall of worry comes from. So puke all you want ye of little faith, we’ll be there buying all the way down to zero!!
Contango watch: Gold’s contango has decreased each of the last 3 days despite net weaker bonds and a net lower market.
August gold was down 5 to $1235.7 per 100 troy ounces as of 8:10 AM EDT, this morning. The September U.S. dollar index was up .231 to 86.21. July platinum was down 9.8 to $1580.5 per 50 troy ounces. Silver was down 8.8 cents to 18.72.
-Elizabeth Thawne
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I am surprised that this is not from good ol' Nic, who seems to show up at exactly this time with comments about gold.
So let me keep this simple for some of these simple minds: IT IS OPTIONS EXPIRY, YOU FRIGGIN' MONTHLY MORONS!
Every damn month it is the SAME CRAP with NEVER a reference to Options Expiry.
So once again: IT IS OPTIONS EXPIRY, YOU FRIGGIN' MONTHLY MORONS!
edit - deleted
Indeed, expect more puking today and tomorrow, with a nice, unwanted spike on Thursday as those who have been timing options expiration to take possession wade it.
Gold only really declines on the COMEX. That means that these gold pullbacks are all fake. When the COMEX goes bust, I wouldn't be surprised if we got every bit of every single one of those NYMEX pullbacks back in terms of price.
It's a great time to own gold and silver.
agreed. everyone has to understand that there are NO regulators in the house. NONE. ZIPPO.
the CTFC is a textbook case of regulatory capture.
the bulk of the months calls are at 1230.....so, at the very least, we will end Thursday 1:30 at 1229.
there is also a cluster of calls at 1200, and if the bullion banks want to show the world just how completely and totally they control this market and how the peasantry is not going to be allowed to preserve the value of any of their assets no matter how hard they try, the bullion banks will take gold to 1199.
so, understand, forget your charts. There are NO regulators. NONE. Zippo.
The bullion banks expire most if not all calls worthless EVERY SINGLE MONTH BECAUSE THERE ARE NO REGULATORS.
This will happen this month. It happens every month.
BECAUSE THERE ARE NO REGULATORS
THEY HAVE FREE MONEY FROM BEN TO DO IT
AND THERE ARE NO POSITION LIMITS FOR THEM.
AND THERE ARE NO REGULATORS.
Yes, exactly, you buy on Thursday afternoon after the bond sales are complete.
You do not offer yourself as a sacrificial lamb in a market where the banks are free to steal as much as they can with absolutely NO, NONE, ZIPPO control or fear.
Where does one obtain the information re: volumn of calls at the various prices?
Unfortunately that always coincides with the joint monthly CTFC SEC tranny porn swaping days. So they always miss the corrupt manipulation of the markets. Too bad about that. Maybe if the had a Porn ETF they might actually do their job.
i know, i know....crates of evidence, attempted hits on whistleblowers, getting walked thru the manipulations.....but.....
THERE IS NO MANIPULATION, the CTFC says.
this market is so corrupt it is literally astonishing that anyone trades in it any more. Its incredible that anyone buys any gold or silver call at the Comex....or even a contract believing that they will get delivery.
Once a pattern is discovered, it gains strength by becoming part of the trader's sentiment and intuition. So, now, we're stuck with it.
While there is some truth to this commentary, the biggest reason why the precious metals prices dropped by sooo much yesterday was due to JPM (and da boyz!) piling on their short positions, as we approach Options Expiry.
It's just like clock-work, and JPM does it every month . . . so LoneStarHog is correct . . . it's options expiry, bitches!
And why aren't the longs piling on longs before expiry?
It's not just JPM anymore. How many traders here at ZH short silver as part of their timing of this expectation?
Damn! Look at the Open Interest and Bank Participation Report. The FEW bullion banks are going SHORT against ALL going LONG.
Douchinger was shooting his mouth off about gold/silver and my SECOND Id - also banned - gave him links to U.S. Government Reports which SHOWED the manipulation. Douchinger replied, "What reports?" The F**KING BASTARD would NOT acknowledge the reports.
Stop looking at the damn daily price and STUDY the PM Market...STUDY IT!!!!!
Are you crazy? No, really, are you?
I already know about the concentrated short position of the big commercials, but that wasn't my point, at all.
I was responding to this: "And why aren't the longs piling on longs before expiry?"
If you KNOW about the illegal concentrated short positions, WHY would you ask this?
So many times when the price of gold/silver goes down the MSM reports LONG LIQUIDATION, when the Open Interest went UP! Why? Because people were going LONG and the bullion banks were going SHORT against all comers. It was NOT long liquidation.
Does the reason matter? Everyone already has a sense of the pattern so it's become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Even if the "manipulators" stopped, day traders would still recreate the sell off.
Yep, it's been almost like clockwork every month. Gold declines the week of options expiry and then heads right back up the following week or so. It's been the surest bet for months on end, I've been able to buy physical bullion at close to the low of the dips every month.
Some people buy a bit every 2 weeks but with this pattern it's best to buy more once a month and cut down on shipping expenses, assuming you buy from places like APMEX.
13 year bear market? It's been a bull market in gold for a decade.
LoneStarHog has it 100% correct. It is option expiration. The morons on CNBC were pontificating that gold would go over $1300 this week because of the huge open interest at that number. That shows you how truly clueless they are.
This is the typical bullshit in gold. Whenever you see huge moves down, especially after being up for a period otime, it is simply a bear raid. The action we have seen since yesterday is typical gold: sell off at 1:30am, 6:30 am and when the CRIMEX opens.
The bullshit in the gold market never ends. I have been in gold since $400, and have finally learned to accept it. (Not really, but you get the drift).
+++++
The Coon hits it out of the park!
Yesterday's decline was as predictable as sunrise. Now, today is another story. The Evil Empire needs to take it lower but the market has now retaken 1240. Gonna be a very interesting 3 hours.
I'm beginning to refocus my anger (too strong a word?) from the named manipulators to the traders who reinforce this sell-off pattern by trading around it. The pattern won't go away until traders stop playing it.
They won't stop trading around it until they're served up nice, medium rare slabs of their own hind ends for doing so.
After Goldman's call yesterday for $1400 I would be selling GOLD here, and buy even more back later once the deflation cycle ends, because hyper-inflate Bernanke will send GOLD to 5k at that point. Deflation capitulation move is near, then we feel the real pain.
Goldman is working the game too. the more you can get in now for the slide the bigger the take this option expiry week.
Agreed with the anti-GS trade idea, jk, but I wouldn't give up just yet. As long as gold continues to make higher lows, I'm sticking with the trade.
I certainly wouldn't be playing that game, unless I was playing it with GLD, rather than gold. By the time the "deflation" cycle ends, thee won't be any physical gold available anywhere, just paper. Already, physical premiums are picking up, they're getting close to their 2008 levels, even with the record high gold price.
Does anybody have an opinion on this
"Will the Barrick dehedging help stabalise the upward trend in Physical and cause the paper markets to eventually implode? particularly if someone suddenly asks for delivery"
Regulatory capture = corruption
hello VFR...
this is why this particular option expiry is so critical. People are "suddenly" asking for delivery. Word is that the Comex has NOT completed deliveries for March, and now they are facing a potentially devastating avalanche of delivery requests for June.
that is why is it imperative that the calls be expired worthless.
unwashed,
Yep, if they take it back, buy the dip...............
COMEX cannot supply physical, they do not have it.
PERIOD...............there Fk'd, the more people who take possession, pushes them back into a corner.
This is what WE have to do, to KILL THIS MONSTER, take physical delivery.
Would the CTFC actually like to explain what it is they do, apart from running down whistle blowers.
I guess the PM manipulation has been so subtle they have never been able to detect it. Because surely if they did detect it they are bound to act on it.
If they did detect it and didn't act on it why wouldn't they? I cant understand why they wouldn't act on corrupt manipulation if they detected it, what possible reason could be there be for a regulatory body deliberately not prosecute the matter the exist to prosecute.
Is there a law to lock up regulators if the deliberately fail to prosecute illegal deeds they detect? Could the CTFC if they have been negligent suffer a class action of billions by out of pocket investors?
SUBTLE??????????????????????????????
Are you kidding?????????????????????????
Subtle as a baseball bat to balls.
twas sarcasm
The thing that is the most horrifying about all this is....
the short positions of the major banks are now so massive they are potentially destabilizing -- for the banks, and for the market, and the entire economy.
what happens when this blows up? and it will. It could take down some of the banks involved as at the CFTC hearings we found out that gold at the LBMA and Comex is leveraged about 100 to 1.....
its insane. its risky beyond all reckoning because one deep pocketed entity none too fond of the US could crater this entire mess in about ten minutes if they choose to.....
everyone involved in this should be frogmarched out the front of the Comex and tried......
Banks buy physical, sell paper gold. They'll close out the paper shorts when the economy tanks (which it will and they know when) and all assets get sold down. hence, they've built a big physical gold position and made a paper profit. Easy.
Aren't many of them around, :\
Can someone please provide me with a link to the 2010 options expiration calendar for gold?
I found this:
http://www.heritagewestfutures.com/downloads/futures-options-calendar.pdf
But I can't tell if the date for June is the 24th or the 28th.
It is down the page a bit.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
It's the 24th. Watch the springback after noon edt on Thurs. Here's the link you're looking for:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_product_calendar_op...
its the 24th, the 28th is the first day to submit your demand for delivery.
its should be a very interesting day at the Comex. very interesting.
Well if those big holders of physical gold want to incease its value by orders of magnitude they could buy significant amounts comex and then demand delivery. Now, if you know they don't have that much of it.....
Dind't Sorrus play the bank of England (GBP) into the grave?
Kina,
"Dind't Sorrus play the bank of England (GBP) into the grave?"
Yes, George Soro's did just that.
The name is Soros
Thanks unwashedmass. Ever since Barrick announced the dehedging I have been watching for a slow buildup of uncompleted deliveries. I think you are right and June could be critical, but it depends if many get bought off with cash x plus "bribe". As happened in March and last November I believe. Now Barrick are out of the picture what other miners are offering long hedges and evne then on unmined reserves. And how long will Physical deliveries be made to wait? Also I think shortages could be caused by unexpired leases by banks who can't now afford to take back delivery as the banks liquidity has been squeezed and they are leaving the gold where it is and are still having to pay the lease rate on that. Can you imagine owning gold but not been able to cash it in! Maybe thats why I read that gold can be counted on the balance sheets as part of asset values!?, but if the banks can't afford to take back delivery and deliver to the punter where is the gold going to come from. But still they can't get at it. There is definitely a compounded shortage of physical through the paper market which is enormous beyond comprehension. One big delivery demand is all it's going to take as the leased gold is no longer hedged. Does that make sense?
ah, kina, you would think that the gold contract holders would hold strong and demand delivery, but, every time the cartel pulls this crap -- monthly -- gold holders run like scared little girls......
its ridiculous....and you've got people like me who know the freight train's coming, so we get out of the way three days before. they have this market trained like circus dogs....
so, every month, the newbies get fleeced.....
like clockwork.
most of us own bullion and have taken delivery over the years....and aren't selling, so there is less and less for the cartel to manipulate that's why you don't see the price in the real world crater along with the Comex prices any more.
eventually, it will end, and given the state of the deliverys and inventories now, its coming soon.
but that won't stop them from trying to run the game this month. clearly they don't care much about the potentially destabilizing event.....they seem to be in it to run the game right until the implosion.
The gold contract holders may run like little girls, but I'd wager that the physical holders might, at the most, raise an eyebrow before returning their attention to the crossword puzzle they're working on, or whatever else they're doing.
Like you say, it seems like it will keep working, until one delivery month, it won't - in spectacular fashion.
Oh this seems bad now, having to endure these obvious bear raids while the Goldman goons at the CFTC surf for porn. And what makes it worse is this type of ridiculous commentary. But you'll feel much better when silver hits $300, and as for gold...
Just so, Jesse. Take a look at a 500 day chart and draw a few parallel lines on it. Hell, go take a look at Jesse's cup & handle formation. I'm buying it!
yes I agree I have been a buyer for 4 years now and it is so predictable quick burst up then slam down.
janet tavakolis wrote a great article on how to corner the gold market.I think I saved it from here, but here is the original link
http://www.tavakolistructuredfinance.com/Gold.pdf
+1
Platinum is going for broke this morning. If the wheels fall off the economy...ok wait, the wheels have fallen off....so if the economy implodes, but equities continue to track platinum (and gold and silver) and platinum continues to have moves like it had this morning, what happens? What happens to currentseas and bonds when we realise that almost no one can pay their debts? Whole Foods will pay their debts (until oil moves to the backside of production), but what about all the other companies/Nations? Basically, ask yourself what is going to happen to the currentseas, and then you will know what happens in the end. And yes, this is the end my friends.
Exactly, JimiJohn, the end is near. Which is why so many markets are being manipulated all at once. It used to be just the occasional manipulation in a specific market. Now it is everything! The desperate are acting desperately. Very close to the end, indeed.
Fantastic posts by true Gold Bitches! OK, here's the Options Expiry calendar link, straight from the those honest operators at COMEX:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_product_calendar_op...
It is hugely satisying to see how many of us really get it. While it can be frustrating and infurating to witness this level of theft and corruption, do not forget some facts that are on our side as this plays out:
1. As GATA has said for over 10 years, ongoing rising demand for physical PM will eventually overwhelm the ability of the Shorts to continue their racket of rigging the paper market
2. Bear in mind that few of us would own as much gold as we do if it traded at anything close to its true value lo these past 20+ years
3. Incredibly, we plebs are able to use extremely dodgy FRN's to actually buy GOLD & SILVER. Are you kidding me??? Just grab all you can while PM's remains low and FRN's can still buy anything
4. Miner investors can build positions with best of breed Large Producers, Juniors, and Explorers at low prices that reflect the rigged PM price. Again, we are buying at artificial discounts. Sucks in the short term, but the long term? Oh yeah.
5. While I totally agree that there are NO regulators, I expect at least 1 or 2 Class Action suits against JPM and HSBC are forthcoming. Discovery alone should be enough to mitigate or possibly even eliminate their scam.
That the clearly documented decade long naked shorting in the tiny Silver market alone can take place at all should tell you all you need to know. Gary Gensler? Eric Holder? Barry D'oh-bama? Nuff said.
This week I'm having my 80 year old mother buy 5 ounces of Gold with the proceeds of a sale of GE stock. I had her do this last week so we could be ready to buy the dip this week. I'll pull the trigger on Bulliondirect.com as soon as they short gold down to 1229. Why would I buy at 1265 when I can save Mom some coin courtesy of Gary, Jamie and Da Boyz?
Can someone try to explain a concept that I heard from M. K. on youtube (not trying to plug, if you watch the show you know who it is). M stated were are in a deflationary spiral, to prevent/reduce further price collapse the Fed is printing vast amounts of money, but to hide the effects of the mass printing O'Bama (he is black Irish you know) needs to spend the money on a massive project(s). M claims that the wars are for now, or at least in part, needed to hide the effects of vast money printing. There always reports about how the military and other fed agencies a litterally throwing money at every project in Iraq and Afghinstain with out a care about results. Can you hide the effects of massive money printing by dumping the money into a giant money hole like the wars?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnX-D4kkPOQ