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Morning Gold Fix: September 23
From FMX Connect
The Competitive Devaluation Cometh
- Japan- BOJ wants a weaker yen to stimulate exports
- Europe- Wants a weaker Euro to stave off sovereign defaults and keep German Exports going.
- USA – needs a weaker Dollar to punish those not spending and to reanimate the dead horse that is consumer spending among other things
Fiat Currencies are circling the drain boys and girls. How else can you explain Stocks, Bonds, and Gold going up while the dollar craps the bed? You cannot fight the fed. Just position yourself for the pop in the liquidity bubble. Perhaps a minor bout of Hyper-Inflation would cure this. Anyway, we are rolling some Gold profits into Grains now.
Options/Technical Report
All signs continue to point to higher based on the Bollinger Band break out last week as alerted to here. For now we remain long and are trailing stops higher on residual gamma. Despite the big ranges, the option activity has been orderly.
Gold now exudes all the qualities of the stock market. Volatility decreases in a rally, and increases in a sell off. This is because a major part of the business is now in GLD and GLD players are usually long stock and doing covered writes against their positions. Hence orderly call selling in the markets, even though producers are not hedging like they used to. The financialization of gold is now in full force and the option flow is the “tell”. The blue line below is yesterday, the yellow the prior day volatilities.
From here an aggressive move increases in probability. We are hoping higher, all indications point to a blow off spike. One thing makes us cautious. Bullion dealers are beginning to buy puts and put spreads in the rally, suggesting washout, while those hedge funds that are long calls sold aggressively yesterday. So we are sticking to the B-Bands lightly long until a settlement under the top band or a an intraday pierce of last week’s settlement. For Market Prices Click Here
-Elizabeth Thawne
Bloomberg (Reported 9/23/2010)
“Gold, trading near a record in London, may climb on concerns over the strength of the U.S. economic rebound and rising inflows into exchange-traded products. Silver pared gains after advancing to a 30-month high.
Global holdings of gold by ETPs rose to a record yesterday, according to Bloomberg data from 10 providers. Reports today may show that existing home sales in the U.S. climbed in August to the second-lowest level on record, indicating housing remains depressed a year after the economic recovery began, while jobless claims held at a two-month low.” Gold May Advance on U.S. Economy Concern, Exchange-Traded Product Demand
NS Futures (Reported 9/23/2010)
“While the gold market could have been undermined by news that a major gold producer (Gold Fields) was planning to expand its gold production, the gold market hasn’t exactly given the supply side of the equation that much credence. Similar news that Indian gold production in the April through July timeframe rose modestly is probably of little importance to thw gold trade, as the ebb and flow of investment demand has somewhat dominated the marketplace.
While equity markets in Asia were mixed overnight, stock markets in Europe are generally weaker this morning. U.S. stock indices have trading moderately lower during the early Thursday trade.” Daily Metals Commentary
Reuters (Reported 9/23/2010)
“Gold held near record highs on Thursday, eyeing a breach of $1,300 an ounce, while silver flirted with 30-year peaks as the threat of currency devaluation lifted interest in the metals as a safe store of value.
Spot gold was bid at $1,291.85 an ounce at 0939 GMT, against $1,289.60 late in New York on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 60 cents to $1,292.70.” Gold Holds Near Record High on Currency Fears
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Rolling precious metals into grains? Swapping my watch for a loaf of bread? Well you can't eat a watch now, can you?
but how will you know when it's lunchtime without the watch?
My COW.TO has done very well lately.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=COW.TO+Interactive#chart1:symbol=cow.to;range=3m;indicator=volume+macd;charttype=line;crosshair=cross;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Can't print a watch either. And it does swap. I took a bit of PM profits yesterday, ACH right into my checking account and off to Sams Club again with my FRNs.
"Anyway, we are rolling some Gold profits into Grains now."
why not keep both.
see RJA
My eye is on silver.
I measure all my stocks in the price of silver, not the price of the dollar. Stock:Silver ratio.
i agree, but also look at PGMs (SWC)
a PM pullback is almost guaranteed - last night cramer was hyping gold and the fast $ guys just discover PM equities.
good grief - do we have to hear anything from buffet?
Currency Devaluation "helping you settle your debts... cheaper..."
In a currency collapse you never have to pay them.
For The Win, Bitchez!
"Japan- BOJ wants a weaker yen to stimulate exports"
USD/JPY pullback to daily breakout levels... FAIL Bitchez!
But it's hard to pay your mortgage when your electricity bill went from $200/mo to $1000/mo and it's costing $50 a day to drive to and from work...
And you just got that generous 1.5% raise...after all, any raise in tough economic times is good...right?
Currency devaluation = settle your debts by default. :)
very thankful for the insights this site offers. I'm new and learning, but, I can certainly appreciate the posts (and comments) here!
With that flag waving, you are most welcome here friend.
Bob
+1
Sure...always room for another soldier from the Koch Industries army!
Of course it helps if you think you are acting for yourself rather than being manipulated by TPTB.
Fly that flag, be proud, but whatever you do...don't follow the money.
Vergelt's Gott, Bubba!
Danke, ebenfalls!
New, and already the best at kissing ass!
1 Kudo for you my friend!!
Sure about this? Or just envy it wasn't yours!?
Dip buyers coming in at -$5 :|
I liked some previous poster's suggestion of buying GLD puts as a hedge. In the event Gold does down, you're covered. In the event paper Gold goes down, you're covered.
I forget who suggested it, but I thought it was clever.
so some junior AngloIrish bondholders may "not be made whole".
Gold Never Defaults
Am Short, Staying Short, Getting Even More Short! My 3Rd Killing This Year! Then, lean back and watch Dem's Distruction + USA Distruction! Too Bad Folks, I am an immigrant and love this place but it's going down and I simply can't watch it, DAMN!
Are you saying you are short gold?
Everything Bubba, Everything! Constellation has it that gold might be good in an inflationary environment, but not for long there too, first and foremost I am convinced of Deflation before Inflation, ergo...short all that crap..e.g. Tyler.."you can't eat it"! As all markets are manipulated so is gold too, and crowded, as far my infected eyes can see, will it eventually go to the moon, sure but it will come back too, like the Apollo Mission! Good Trading!
It is impossible to be short "everything" since what is the other side of the trade? Food/guns/ammo?
Hyperinflation has already occurred. We still have yet to feel the effects, but it has already happened. Also Hyperinflation is the same as Hyperdeflation. They are the same.
FOFOA has a good series on hyperinflation/deflation:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post.html
Part 2
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-2.html
Part 3
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-3.html
"Anyway, we are rolling some Gold profits into Grains now."
Ethanol margins are getting hammered and the futures are very fat compared to cash...I would be awful careful of grains up to sep 30 stocks report. Agood break will be a good buy
Where's Beeks? Where in the hell is Beeks!!??
Gold and silver are upping too slowly. If we have something like what copper did in 2005-2006, I guess JPM will have to ask for a bailout or file for Chapter 11, which will become a great amusement to the ZHers.
Gold and silver are upping too slowly.
It'll speed up.
All you gotta do is sit around and wait for some government somewhere to do something stupid and expensive. It's really too easy.
I'm still waiting for the fire trucks to show up at the Comex.
We can't deliver the gold because it burned up!
Thanks Tyler. I agree on the gold, and the chart almost looks too perfect.
I'm holding gold and silver until I see a clear Double-Flush Event. There's been no proper Courtesy Flash Flush Sign from Uncle Ben, so if he looks like he's going to go rogue and light a match, duck and cover.
The gist of this article seems US centric. I do not believe the gains in PMs have come primarily from US buyers. I believe that buyers in Mid East, SE Asia, India, Russia, etc, are having more impact than US sales/purchases.
Just my two cents...
Your 2 cents are now worth $1294. Few American investors realize that the Asians will front-run the PM markets. 5000 years of DNA that gold is the only true wealth. The biggest push will come gradually from the Chinese who are seeking a new world currency; gold will definitely be in the basket of goods supporting it.
currency are going wild, the dotcoms of the day.
Gold savings accounts have actually been a feature with large Malaysian banks for several years now, so a state rolling out their own gold coins is not that much of a stretch.
Just to offer some perspective for who might not know this background.
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