Morning Musings From Art Cashin - And The Only Mention So Far Of The Brewing Middle East Conflict

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Tue, 03/02/2010 - 10:35 | 250899 Going Down
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Brewing Middle East Conflict? Relax.

 

The stage is now set for a meaningful multilateral dialogue on Iran's nuclear program that may result in a mutually acceptable deal that would represent a modified version of the initial "fuel swap" agreement unveiled last October.

 

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LC03Ak02.html

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 10:56 | 250909 trav7777
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The time for this was right after 9/11.

Iran offered up the nuclear program and the Hezbollah in exchange for normalized relations and Busch told them to get fucked.  Now we are hyperextended in two godawfully expensive wars of nation building and going through a huge recession.

I don't see Iran giving an inch; why should they?  They already have the pipeline transit deals to China and are forming resource partnerships.  Sanctions will go nowhere and a wider war by Israel is a non-starter.  The jews were so squabbly after the non-win in Lebanon last time and calling for heads - their army isn't what it was when it fought in the 6-day and Yom Kippur conflicts against other armies.

Too much knowledge has been gleaned regarding asymmetric warfare and attrition for any conventional force to get anywhere without "offending" the international community (iow Europe) at the bloodshed.  Iran has rearmed its proxies in Lebanon and if Israel chooses to go the war route, they will not fare better this time than last.

Certainly, they have the armament and force structure to level places, but that is simply politically unpalatable at this juncture.  We did nothing about PRK, Iran sees this as jawboning and they are correct.  They will receive patronage from China in the UN and there is no practical way to destroy their capability without seriously jeopardizing any stability in the region.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 11:26 | 250943 macfly
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Very much as I see it too, we are checkmated. Honestly, even if Iran gets the bomb, the Persian people are far more level headed and sensible than the quick to flare Pakistani's next door, and they've had it for years, and we're all still here. I see more fear than reason in all this posturing against Iran, they would never be a first strike nation, and quite honestly I don't think we will ever see a first strike kind of war. We'll see a lot more war, but it will just be loads of messing around chasing ghosts in the poppy fields, emptying our coffers to fill Haliburton and the Carlyle Group's purses.

 

However it might get tricky when China starts placing it's army in the middle east to protect its resource partners, but I'm not sure that'll happen anytime soon.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 11:49 | 250973 Anonymous
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Agreed, Pakistan is a far scarier country than Iran.

The real conflict is with Russia and China over Middle East oil and gas reserves, not Iran. Iran is actually a natural ally as they have more to fear from their large neighbors than the US in the long term.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 11:27 | 250944 Anonymous
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So what we just wait for them to go nuclear and plead to the eunuch Europeans for more paperwork and meaningless talk? Iran and its counterparts only respect force and the whining about Bush and the toothless sanction talk will only buy them more time.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 12:17 | 251025 Anonymous
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If my country had over 100,000 invading forces plus another 100,000 mercenaries occupying the countries directly to my east and my west, I'd want a nuke also.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 13:26 | 251140 AnonymousMonetarist
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Off-topic, well maybe loosely connected to Art's sunspottin'...

Thus the ancient notion of a “harmony of the spheres” and especially the fundamental ideas of Johannes Kepler have been confirmed for the first time, and this in a manner that can principally be verified by everyone.

http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2010/03/hand-up-mans-back-those-...


Tue, 03/02/2010 - 14:38 | 251253 colonial
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Assuming some of what has been advanced above is accurate, it leads to a few questions.  The first is not whether the US is willing to allow Iran to become nuclear but whether Israel is so inclined. 

The second seems to be rooted in the belief that a potentially rogue nuclear nation (the example above is Pakistan,) would be unable to initiate an attack. 

Regarding Israel, even a casual observer would be foolish to under-estimate Israel's reaction to a nuclear Iran. 

But the second point, allowing countries to have nucs believing they will not use them, seems naive.  At some point, there is just too much nuclear material available in places removed from the world's eye.  Even the threat that a nuclear Iran might allow some its bounty to be used to build a dirty bomb should send a chilling message.   

That said, you have to give Iran some credit.  They used their energy to greatly advance their strategic position in the world.  Now there are two choices, eliminate the threat, (which is more difficult every day,) or deal with a new nuclear power in the world's most volatile region. 

 

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 15:43 | 251364 AnonymousMonetarist
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The answer is V.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 19:02 | 251660 Anonymous
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looking at the Israeli Stock exchange which reached today the 1200 level(up 100% from last year) and -3% from all time high ...we can conlude that there will be no war in middle east ....there is no fear at all - this market is insane....no war premium....

Fri, 04/16/2010 - 10:09 | 303810 Tom123456
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