As Mortgage Rates Go Parabolic, Home Prices Will Soon Be Latest Shoe To Re-drop

Tyler Durden's picture

The negative convexity loop in mortgages is starting to see casualties left and right. The most recent read on the 30 Year Cash Fannie Mortgage rose by 11 bps overnight, and by a stunning 1% in the last month. At 4.703% the prevailing wholesale mortgage rate is back to the highest it has been since May 2010. And while some have speculated that this inflection in rates would have been sufficient to get Americans to jump on refinancing their mortgages, attempting to catch low rates while they can, the jump has been so powerful that to many the now incremental 10% loss in purchasing power does not make a purchase equitable any more. As a result, ceteris paribus, home prices will have to decline by about 10% to compensate for the pick up in rates in just the last month. And since the jump in rates on a duration adjusted basis is even more painful, there will be increase selling of comparable securities as managers look to shed a sudden surge in duration, leading to a further spike in yields, and so forth.

And in terms of retail mortgage rates, i.e., those that are available to the broader plebs, bankrate has just announced that its 30 Year fixed has spiked from 5% to 5.19% overnight - the highest since April 21. Next up: another home pricing crash.


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the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Lower prices are good for the cash on hand types.

Rogerwilco's picture

Or fools trying to catch falling knives. I see the government stepping in and paying the states to condemn and demolish vacant houses.

papaswamp's picture

That is what they are doing in Ireland.

dlmaniac's picture

That way government creates jobs to destruct.HOHO.

Reminds me back then when they argued for moving some Guantamela prisoners to an Illinois prison b/c it'd create jobs. No I didn't make it up.

viator's picture

It would be better to build new houses and have the demolition crews follow the

construction crews, ripping them down as fast as they get built. Pure Keynes.

DarkAgeAhead's picture

As covered here and elsewhere, why not?

Perfect example of how what we call GDP is a theft from future well-being for current profit among just a few.

Ecological suicide.

DarkAgeAhead's picture

Dead, literally disintegrating, decomposing shoots.

DarkAgeAhead's picture

Government's been demolishing homes for years under the claim of economic revitalization.

That's self-inflicted ecological suicide when you consider the numbers.

goldmiddelfinger's picture

So are silver dollars but they both make a crappy investment

ElvisDog's picture

I realize you are nothing but a stupid troll, but really. A silver dollar has been probably the best possible investment you could have had in 2010.

dumpster's picture

crappy is in the mind of the fellow with no dough to invest


4.50  to 29  on the way to 80 leaves your comments frozen in mush

Almost Solvent's picture

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wolfsonite's picture

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RockyRacoon's picture

You gotta use spaces between words to decode!

bankonzhongguo's picture

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dark pools of soros's picture

Honk if you like Boobs!



RockyRacoon's picture

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Ragnarok's picture
And Now Presenting: Amazing Satellite Images Of The Ghost Cities Of China

lance_manion's picture

These won't be empty for long.  These are the future residences where the American slaves they've been purchasing are going to live, spending the rest of their lives working for their new Sino-Masters.  Ni Hao!

Caviar Emptor's picture

All part of the plan...US Gov has already planned with China to outsource retirees and the elderly. China will accept them along with direct deposit of all Social Security and Medicare into China government coffers. In exchange they'll provide housing (ghost cities) and cheap labor from the Chinese country side (while receiving funds adjusted to US prices). 

It's a win-win!

cossack55's picture

Cool. I love Chinese food.  I hope I can drive one of those tricked-out golf carts like in The Villages.  When is my flight?  I'm also looking forward to my porn shoot and groping.

LeBalance's picture

They taste just like dog!

Soyrent Gleen.

(I would ask for a pardon for the uncalled for ethnic humor, but I won't.)


Almost Solvent's picture

Nothing more satisfying than a pasteurized, homogenized, chopped, extruded and formed rib byproduct with high fructose, err, corn sugar flavored sauce! 

downrodeo's picture

AHHH, oh no!! the 1 child policy has proven to be an unmitigated disaster!


Seriously though, that is creepy. It looks like a neutron bomb went of or something.

chinaguy's picture

1 child policy

I'm surprised no one has picked up on the implications of this yet.

It is going to SLAUGHTER Chinese real estate.

The Chinese middle class has bee putting saving in real estate. they all own more than one home. Come 2015 - 2020, the single child policy comes into its own and these now single kids need homes----ALL OF WHICH will be provided for them by their familes ---meaning come 2015 - 2020 the demand for real estate for the creation of new households will drop to about ZERO Xiao Xing - Xiao Xing

ibjamming's picture

They created their own "baby boomer" problem willingly...too many old, not enough young.

TWORIVER's picture

What else happened around April 21? Buhler? The market began a 20% drop.

SheepDog-One's picture

Theres radio ads here from mortgage companies yelling 'BUY NOW! Rates are going up so you gotsta get you one of these here houses NOW before YOUR chance is GONE, LOSER'!
Well, in effect anyway.
All wildly hillarious.

scatterbrains's picture

any loan flippers out there know, is this too much heat to handle ? Can we expect every good credit loan origination with a *rate lock* in the pipeline will get busted by the lender for what ever reason they can find ? "you forgot to cross your T on line 15 page 31 of your loan app. I'm afraid we're going to have to deny your loan."  but but we're suppose to close in 4 days..   sorry.

MachoMan's picture

I've never closed on a home that didn't have a locked rate...  maybe it helps to have a lawyer involved to relieve the possibility of crawfishing, but generally speaking the banks would be in breach of contract...  if push comes to shove, they capitulate... 

scatterbrains's picture

I'm mostly refering to the loan brokers that float to the top of "google compare rates" They work on razor thin margins, do all their work via fax and may be located 1000 miles away. I was told they try not to lock the rate because borrowers will bail quick if better rates come along. Consumer protection laws make it easy for the borrower to back out. I did a refi and dumped one for another when rates fell to 4.25  I held my breath hoping rates wouldnt back up thinking they would dump me just as quick.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Interesting timing of the rate spike considering the Alt-A and Option Only Arm resets we are wading through at this point and time -

papaswamp's picture

Most don't have the cash in hand and/or the credit rating to grab the below 5% rates. basically if they didn't refi already...they missed the boat.

Max Hunter's picture

Agreed. The bulk of buying and refi's have been pulled forward..  Could be a little more in the pipeline but next year should get pretty ugly..

buzzsaw99's picture

Little to nothing down FHA borrowers get a better rate than the 20% down crowd. Look it up. Your gubbermint hates you and your cash.

Vacca's picture

I hate when Latin rears it's ugly head.

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

bond market finally getting interesting

hellbilly's picture

Good thing Uncle Ben coming out with QE2

cocoablini's picture

That shoe dropped 3 years ago and right on our heads. And then there is this commercial real estate thing where people can walk even easier- and its a business decision not a life decision to dump your property

Caviar Emptor's picture

All part of the plan....let rates rise on the long end for 2 reasons: -stanch the hemorrhage of dollars to developing markets (hehe) by restoring a semblance of dollar credibility and keeping up appearances of 'growth-driven' rate rises and -keep housing in the cellar so it doesn't blow CPI into the stratosphere and explode the whole QE ZIRP program. Keeps inflation looking artificially low. Monetarists survive to live another day.