Most Recent Batch Of Greek Bonds Already Trading At Post-Break Lows, Investors Underwater
Somehow we don't think that the evil hedge funds that were excluded from participating in Greece's most recent round of issuance are spending their nights weeping over this snub. The 6.25% bonds maturing in 2020, which priced at 98.942 are now trading at their lows of 98.36, with a corresponding yield of almost 6.5%, compared to the issuance yield of 6.35%. Due to the perception of yield "stickiness" in the eyes of investors, and as any new issuance will likely have to contend with the stigmata of resulting in underwater status within a few weeks of the break, we fully expect the next round cash coupon to be about 6.5%. Unfortunately, even as Greece does all it can to prevent over 10% of its GDP being paid out to foreign lenders in the form of bond interest, it will have no choice but to price the next bond issue in the mid 6% range, making its economic predicament increasingly more dire. And the worst thing is Greece is running out of both time and options, a ticking time bomb very much appreciated by savvy bond investors who can tell the underwriters during interest inquiry that anything below a 6.5% yield is a non-starter.