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Motivational Speakers - Belgium Style
Six months after the general election, Belgium still has no new government. Flemish nationalist Bart De Wever, head of the country's largest party, wants to split Belgium into two states. In an interview that has caused a scandal in his country, he told SPIEGEL why the nation has "no future." SPIEGEL explains:
Belgium has sunk into political chaos. Following the parliamentary elections six months ago, all attempts to build a new government have failed. The country is divided into two camps that oppose each other, apparently irreconcilably: the socialists, who won the most votes in Wallonia, the French-speaking southern region of the country, and the nationalist conservatives in Flanders, the wealthier Dutch-speaking northern region.
The New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) obtained the most parliamentary seats in June's elections. Its leader Bart De Wever wants to split Belgium into two. In an interview with SPIEGEL that was published in German on Monday, De Wever described how Belgium is the "sick man" of Europe and has "no future in the long run." The interview caused a massive outcry throughout Belgium. De Wever himself said he regretted it if anybody felt insulted but confirmed the message of the interview. "I have my opinion and my analysis is accurate," he said. "There is nothing in the interview that is not true."
Thanks to our friend Cullen Thompson over at Bienville Capital Management for pointing out the underappreciated risks within the EU’s headquarters. Since our initial conversation over dinner in New York earlier this year, credit spreads on Belgium sovereign debt have quietly doubled. De Wever is certainly a unique Motivational Speaker. Which poses an interesting question . . . Cullen, have you considered the similarities in the images below?
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Does this mean we'll no longer have Belgian Waffles, only Wallonian and Flanderish Waffles?
As a (western) Canadian, I find the talk about Belgium's French-speaking socialists absolutely hilarious.
...and the more I hear about the issues the funnier it gets. Sudden Debt sounds like he could be from Alberta.
It really must be cultural.
I've never understood why Belgium is even a nation in the first place. Why isn't the French half just part of France, and the Flemish (i.e., Dutch) half a part of the Netherlands? It seems a strange and artificial construct. Just like Canada, which by all logic should just be a part of the USA ---- aside from those French troublemakers in Quebec, of course, and that welfare basket-case of Newfoundland, which could be given back to the British.
Belgium was briefly independent in the 1789-1790s after Austrian rule, its identity being that of the 'Catholic' part of the Low Countries. It quickly became part of France in the 1790s, but after Napoleon's defeat in 1815 it was all given away as a prize to the Netherlands, as the European powers did not want to let France get any bigger.
In the Belgian revolution of 1830 against Dutch rule, the Dutch-speaking Flemish sided with the French-speakers in the revolution, against the ruling Dutch-speakers, because at that time, the Protestant-Catholic cultural divide was more significant (the Dutch Calvinist Protestants versus the Belgian Roman Catholics), than the language issues.
Though the first King of Belgium who took the oath in 1831, Léopold I, was actually a German Lutheran Protestant, who however agreed to marry a French Catholic wife and let the children be Roman Catholic. But that is another story ... along with the story of Luxembourg, also established in current form as an eventually part of these events, with there remaining today a 'Luxembourg' province inside Belgium, as well as the separate EU country.
Belgians have been talking about breaking up during my entire lifetime, rather like Canada with its French-speaking Québécois about 20% of the French population, whose peoples also regularly talk about breaking up.
The current moment in Belgium is like Canada 1995 when the vote on breaking up Canada lost by 1%, in what some Canadians say was a rigged election in Québec ... but after that the 'break-up' talk in Canada went back to its normal low-burn.
Despite the mood of the moment, breaking up Belgium has too many complications, particularly regarding bi-lingual Brussels and the surrounding areas, and the complex intertwining of the economies. Many Dutch-speaking Belgians make their living in French-speaking areas, then take the (wonderful) Belgian trains here back home.
What we will most likely have is some re-structuring and re-organisation (again), more than a break-up of Belgium. Belgium does in fact have some of the character of Switzerland and early USA (pre-1861) where the regional-local identity is stronger than the national one. Plus we have a lot of firearms here (shhh ... we don't generally talk about it much.)
The EU doesn't want the break-up, as that would likely mean the French-speaking areas including Brussels integrating into France, thus leaving France the clear centre of the EU (it already has part of the EU apparatus in Strasburg). With Belgium as a metaphor for Europe, the EU will likely put its weight behind re-organisation and against a split.
The most vulnerable moment will be when and if the southern European countries start leaving the eurozone ... that could be a moment of chaos when things could really get wild, tho my guess is that this current 'we might break up the country' crisis will pass and fade, like it did with Québec and Canada.
Quality post
Maybe the problem is that Canadians actually just don't want to be a part of the USA...
Other than that, I am sure your logic is impeccable....
Perhaps not obviously, that post was intended largely tongue in cheeck.
There are also a lot of highly statist northeastern Americans who the rest of the USA doesn't want any part of. Would you northern neighbors be willing to adopt them, perhaps?
Don't hold back, man; tell us how you really feel.
I VOTED FOR THAT GUY!!
1. He doesn't take the compromise.
2. He does what the voters ask.
3. ALL OTHER POLITICAL PARTIES ARE SELL OUTS!!
And after 5 elections these last 3 years, I voted on every one of them and they all fucked up.
DE WEVER IS GOD!! He is one of the smartest people I know and has a mountain of integrity!
Seems Belgium has a demographics problem, just like a lot of European countries. Their fertility rate is 1.65. Replacement is 2.1. Not good. Plus, they have a) plenty of new immigrants, that b) procreate much faster than the Belgiums do.
This is a major mathematical issue because it is very difficult to change. It's also a major political issue if the immigrants are not assimilating.
Your thoughts?
What does the foreigners', especially non-Europeans', "assimilation" mean? Is it an euphemism for ethnically cleansing the indigenous Europeans with other earthly fauna, pretending that all subsets of humanity are fungible in European or Euro-derived countries and only such countries whereas other people deserve the dignity of continuing to remain what they are and who they'd wish to be should the option and consequences be laid out in earnest: that they, the natives, will, on the long-term, suffer loss of all political power and control over their destiny, minoritisation and then extinction?
Over time, either the "multiculturalism" lark will end and immigrants will be repatriated, or some or all European peoples will die out. I can only hope it happens before mutual mass murder is the only way to duke it out.
also check the math for France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Italy, not sure about Spain.
Everybody likes to have sex but foreigners tend to reproduce better, hence more kiddies growing up mostly in a poor environment, but much better off than their parents when they were kids. According to old traditions the parents hope that their children will support them when they're old, forgetting that the EU offers an elderly care system - hence the big bunny rate, which has severe demographical, social and economical implications.
A country can only accept a certain percentage of its population of immigrants per year into the country, else they will not integrate with the locals.
Will somebody please dare a percentage number?
0% would be a good guess, as non-European foreigners tend to be ontologically unassimilable without effecting an unwelcome long-term change in what European peoples are.
Why is "integration" supposed to be a worthwhile goal? For peoples losing their country under a Malthusian trap in terms of reproduction and government-sanctioned invasion, the only thing worse than "multiculturalism" which does not work is one that does.
But what about country´s future? Do you think it should split in two? And what most belgians think?
I'm not the expert in this case as I have no Belgium connections, but if i look at history there is only one country with four languages that has survived its inherent differences over many centuries, Switzerland. Why?
Direct democracy, it's NOT a republic!
People can actually vote on the individual topics and don't have to vote for the people that claim that they will vote in their favour which they will not. I agree its an imperfect system, taking years reaching a decision, but maybe it's this slowliness that outsmarts the quick fix.
+++ as in AAA
So let the socialists in the South pay for their socialism, and the conservatives in the North pay for their slightly less overreaching socialism. Everyone is happy then, right?
EXTRA:
- no more federal expenditures
- taxes on a regional basis (richer regions pay less, poorer pay more but can compensate with austerity)
- No more "waffle effect spending". This means: if they spend 1 euro in the north, they need to spend 1 euro in the south.
The number of unfinished roads to nowhere, bridges without roads, metro systems... that are build just to create work is NUTS!
- The French alway thought they where the ruling elite, but the flemish paid for it all. Now I say: BURN IN HELL YOU MOTHERFUCKERS!!
no where is my Xanax....
In reality, Belgium is most likely better off in two pieces, the French and Flemish halves. You can't mix productive Germanic people with nonproductive Franco peoples. Europe will just have to deal with the consequences.
Calling Sudden Debt!
Now that Belgium gets the stage at ZH, it would be nice for a comment or two from a real live Belgian!
He has replied that Belgium is indeed in a political mess and we Amerikans should be reasonably happy with what we have.
Until California or Illinois happen...
HELLO, CHOCOLAT OR A BEER ANYBODY?!?! :)
These last few years I've learned a lot from politics. After 3 years without a government I can only say this:
1. Employment is at a all time high here in Belgium. We have a real shortage in working people.
2. Everything still runs as it always did.
3. All salaries have gone up 4% this year and we'll all start 2011 with a 2,6% raise
4. The housing market actually rose 7% this year and never declined during the crisis!
It's like EVERY TIME A POLITICIAN ACTUALLY DOES ANYTHING, THINGS GET FUCKED UP!!
SO I SAY TO THE WORLD POLITICIANS:
STOP TRYING TO DO STUFF! YOU ONLY FUCK THINGS UP!
LET THINGS SOLVE THEMSELVES!
And people wonder why I pray for budget issues (here in US) to trigger a government shutdown. Hell, even just closing up the EPA for a few days would save the economy millions.