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Mubarak steps down while Canadian trade figures blow past estimates and US consumer confidence helps S&P rally to new highs
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***** "US consumer confidence helps S&P rally to new highs" *****
Tentative Outright Treasury Operation ScheduleAcross all operations in the schedule listed below, the Desk plans to purchase approximately $97 billion. This represents $80 billion in purchases of the announced $600 billion purchase program and $17 billion in purchases associated with principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS expected to be received between mid-February and mid-March.
Printer version Operation Date1 Settlement Date Operation Type2 MaturityRange Expected Purchase Size February 11, 2011 February 14, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/15/2016 – 01/31/2018 $6 – $8 billion February 14, 2011 February 15, 2011 Outright TIPS Purchase 04/15/2013 – 02/15/2040 $1 – $2 billion February 15, 2011 February 16, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 02/28/2015 – 08/15/2016 $5 – $7 billion February 16, 2011 February 17, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2021 – 11/15/2027 $1.5 – $2.5 billion February 17, 2011 February 18, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018 – 02/15/2021 $6 – $8 billion February 18, 2011 February 22, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/31/2013 – 02/15/2015 $5 – $7 billion February 22, 2011 February 23, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/31/2016 – 02/15/2018 $6 – $8 billion February 23, 2011 February 24, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/15/2028 – 02/15/2041 $1.5 – $2.5 billion February 24, 2011 February 25, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/31/2012 – 08/15/2013 $4 – $6 billion February 25, 2011 February 28, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018 – 02/15/2021 $6 – $8 billion February 28, 2011 March 1, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/31/2013 – 02/15/2015 $5 – $7 billion March 1, 2011 March 2, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/15/2028 – 02/15/2041 $1.5 – $2.5 billion March 2, 2011 March 3, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 03/31/2015 – 08/31/2016 $5 – $7 billion March 3, 2011 March 4, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018 – 02/15/2021 $6 – $8 billion March 4, 2011 March 7, 2011 Outright TIPS Purchase 04/15/2013 – 02/15/2041 $1 – $2 billion March 7, 2011 March 8, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 09/15/2013 – 02/28/2015 $5 – $7 billion March 8, 2011 March 9, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 09/30/2016 – 02/28/2018 $6 – $8 billion March 9, 2011 March 10, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 03/31/2015 – 08/31/2016 $5 – $7 billion
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
is it consumer confidence or Ben's Printing Press?
Stock Market 15K FTW!!! June here we come... God Bless QE3!!!
One thing I will give you is transparency and a willingness to stick to your guns... Kudos! for being an honorable / sporting man.
F e b r u a r y 1 4 , 2 0 1 1
| 7
Long /ZW | 690.00 | stop 675.30 | +27.54%
Long /ZC | 550.00 | stop 541.90 | +28.82%
Long /CT | 150.00 | stop 138.50 | +29.33%
Long OIH | 140.65 | stop 135.00 | +10.02%
Long MXIM | 25.02 | stop 24.45 | +6.47%
Short ACOR | 28.90 | stop 30.60 | +20.41%
Long ERJ | 30.10 | stop 28.90 | +12.62%
Long TDY | 45.05 | stop 44.85 | +12.21%
Long TITN | 21.30 | stop 20.45 | +25.12%
Short AUD/NOK | 5.850 | stop 5.915 | -30 pips
Long WBS | 21.05 | stop 20.05 | +11.14%
Long /ZR | 14.64 | stop 14.20 | +11.27%
Long NE | 37.65 | stop 36.50 | +3.35%
Long CAB | 23.40 | stop 22.75 | +17.52%
Long TSLA | 23.95 | stop 22.05 | -2.92%
Long /CL | 86.30 | stop 83.80 | -0.93%
Long UA | 57.55 | stop 51.55 | +21.30%
Long MEE | 55.55 | stop 51.00 | +13.57%
Long IAG | 19.55 | stop 18.50 | +4.09%
Long CRR | 114.33 | stop 105.00 | +5.99%
Long CNQ | 43.65 | stop 42.55 | +0.41%
Long MOO | 56.35 | stop 55.15 | +2.07%
Long SOHU | 80.04 | stop 73.00 | +11.04%
Long CF | 140.60 | stop 136.05 | +6.93%
Long SINA | 87.55 | stop 77.50 | +6.41%
Long BIDU | 118.30 | stop 113.00 | +9.54%
Long MSFT | 27.90 | stop 26.95 | -2.33%
Long TYO | 46.70 | stop 45.00 | +3.43%
Long AMRN | 8.85 | stop 7.65 | -7.68%
Long DECK | 79.92 | stop 77.00 | +7.67%
Long LULU | 75.15 | stop 71.45 | +12.19%
Long CMG | 240.67 | stop 232.40 | +11.66%
Short FCX | 56.05 | stop 57.80 | +4.51%
Long DNR | 21.60 | stop 20.10 | -1.06%
Long MAC | 49.01 | stop 47.65 | +0.73%
Long A | 44.34 | stop 40.00 | +1.53%
Long PCLN | 440.72 | stop 423.00 | +3.32%
Long WLL | 126.04 | stop 120.00 | -3.53%
Long AUDC | 7.98 | stop 6.95 | -3.13%
Long IMAX | 27.70 | stop 26.00 | -0.47%
Long TOL | 20.90 | stop 20.00 | +2.68%
Long VECO | 47.60 | stop 42.50 | +10.23%
Long CTSH | 76.83 | stop 72.50 | -1.73%
Short SCCO | 45.06 | stop 47.60 | +1.46%
Short WLT | 121.55 | stop 128.70 | +1.91%
Long LEN | 21.10 | stop 20.25 | -0.90%
Short AUD/SGD | 1.2905 | stop 1.2995 | +95 pips
Long URRE | 3.30 | stop 2.85 | -5.76%
Long UEC | 6.28 | stop 5.55 | -1.59%
Long USD/JPY | 83.00 | stop 81.75 | +20 pips
Long CAD/JPY | 83.55 | stop 82.50 | +80 pips
Long SGD/JPY | 64.95 | stop 64.30 | +5 pips
Short EUR/USD | 1.3605 | stop 1.3760 | +70 pips
Long USD/CHF | 0.9650 | stop 0.9540 | +70 pips
CLOSED
Short ECH | 73.40 | cover 70.61 | +3.80%
Long CNP | 15.85 | sell 16.21 | +2.27%
Long RELL | 12.80 | sell 12.95 | +1.17%
Long EDZ | 21.83 | sell 22.97 | +5.22%
Long UGL | 61.90 | sell 64.15 | +3.63%
Long SLW | 31.40 | sell 34.40 | +9.55%
Long CLF | 88.15 | sell 87.70 | -0.51%
Long CZI | 15.12 | sell 16.18 | +7.01%
Long SHZ | 6.85 | sell 6.78 | -1.02%
Short AUD/USD | 1.0155 | cover 0.9995 | +160 pips
NEW
Long MRCY | 18.70 | stop 17.75
Long GOOG | 618.05 | stop 595.00
Long BSQR | 10.60 | stop 9.35
Long PRGO | 72.76 | stop 71. 20
Long TTMI | 18.12 | stop 17.45
Short EUR/CAD | 1.3475 | stop 1.3580
Short AUD/CAD | 0.9925 | stop 1.0030
Long JBL | 21.60 | stop 21.00
Long CRUS | 23.77 | stop 23.10
Long JOBS | 57.00 | stop 55.00
Short GME | 20.22 | stop 21.25
Long MSB | 33.98 | stop 32.45
Short MMYT | 28.85 | stop 30.10
Long CHK | 30.65 | stop 28.50
Long NOG | 28.11 | stop 26.55
Long CTXS | 69.61 | 65.05
Long HAWK | 7.71 | stop 6.90
F e b r u a r y 1 4 , 2 0 1 1
| 8
Long SDS | 21.15 | stop 19.90
Short SPY | 133.10 | stop 136.00
Short QQQQ | 58.45 | stop 60.10
Trades
OPEN
Nauf has gone over to the Dark Side. Go ahead and predict the S&P will go up, but please don't give us reasons like a small beat in a consumer confidence index or Mubarek cashing his chips and calling it a night at the rigged games. Puh-leze.
Fed liquidity is just liquidity. Small beats by 0.1 in consumer confidence are what catalyze that liquidity to go into stocks. You have to look at the ample liquidity as the condition, not the catalyst.
What utter crap.
You were bearish when the market was melting up, you are now spewing bullish crap when we are at the door step of a major correction.
The funny thing is that you consider yourself an analyst. Amazing.
I've been bullish and long US equity from S&P 1040, in expectations of QE2.
I have no reservations about being long risk, despite Bernanke's policies being responsible for what has now become another yield-chasing moral hazard marketplace.
I don't think US stocks get any major correction til second half of this year.
Peanuts! Popcorn! Cotton-Candy!
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Table 1: Top 5 Quality Dividend Paying Companies (June 21, 2010)
Table 2: Top 5 Quality Dividend Paying Companies Updated (February 11, 2011)
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I like the Euro / for more upside than a flight to safety dollar... for the record. lets see who makes out better?
Rumours of the decline of the AUD have been going a while now and anyone who has shorted it has been burned.
The AUD correlates very well with chinese electricity consumption - cant show you the chart but its out there and maybe the author could?
China and the AUD will catch a cold and it will happen but i'm betting its longer than most people think.
But this is all crap compared to GOLD - whats gonna happen in the next coupla weeks?
Great Stuff Naufal. Respect to your trading style. Not trading with sentiment. Although selling yourself a bit out there, chasing the bernanke rally, like everybody else.
You predict a crash after FED starts rising, but what is your technical target for S&P 500 before the crash? You mention 2013 - 2014 as the time, but by the rate S&P 500 is ising, we will cross 1600. Also you are bearish on YEN, but I suspect, you will turn bullish, as soon as risk aversion strikes, if massive liquidity ever fails to buy the dip.
I agree with you on the doorway to high yields at around 4,40% on US 10Y, but what would be the impact of that on equities?
This shift to the JPY for the carry trade will help lift the dollar. I smell an 80 handle in our future. We have a huge net synthetic carry trade and dollar short position, even the gold and silver bugs are playing the short dollar carry trade game if they have any dollar debt at all!
Two vast and empty vaults of gold stand in the desert.
On the plaque these words are written,
"My name is Hosnimandias, king of thieves.
Look upon my works ye envious and despair!"