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Must Read Observations On The Great Vega Short – Volatility, Tail Risk, And Sleeping Elephants
Submitted by Christopher Cole of Artemis Capital
The Great Vega Short – Volatility, Tail Risk, And Sleeping Elephants (pdf)
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I have always heard Ben has a short straddle, but I never in my wildest fantasies imagined it was that short!
Sacrilege Posted on the AZ thing earlier today but it was taken down
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/idea-equality-force-charges
here is a cache of the post
http://cc.bingj.com/cache.aspx?q=e%2c+&d=412532872831&mkt=en-UK&setlang=...
Thanks Sal...wondered where it got off to.
I am denied access on the zerohedge link, and bingj won't open either. Do tell, what was taken down? Thanks.
Some central banker is shorter than others
and it all works until it doesn't.
this is gonna be one helluva crash.
sold out all my longs today. i'm done until there is a serious correction, no little 50 pts to placate the peasants and try to herd them in,
nope, i want down a couple thousand points, than i'll come back.
bye Ben. thanx
FnA Tyler,
Thanks. I looked at the first chart and had a freakin' seizure.
I said it earlier today, but it requires repeating....WFT is going on around here?
Good grief [and by that I mean seizures sure suck]
that sucks, you mean if i buy the put from the fed and i win, i loose cuz they not gonna pay me, im gonna call the sec and tell them.
I'm not letting Bernanke put anything to me naked.
lmao, in a way he already has, to all of us peons
That tears it....I'm out on break. Obviously, I am exhausted from trying to carry the short seller's flag alone for the entire freakin' world. I cannot read this shit [implied "again"].
Dog....please post a reply here...wtf is this article about? Thanks Dog.
Cdad [shaking a martini]
Last Bear capitulates... A top must be near.
Not yet. I'm still WAY short, the damn fool I am!
VIX June calls around 30?
For those of you who care who Artemis Capital is there IARD/CRD Number is 149212.
IF you want to see what i am seeing on forex:
http://midasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com/2011/01/forex-trading-trading-...
only 14 trillion debt, wake me up when it gets to a quadrillion
So what? Bernanke has said in public he is never going to let the stock market go down. So far so good.
The FED could get a Margin Call from the American People. They need tons of Money to keep the Market up but where does it stop?
Time to give them a Margin Call they have been to reckless with Americans Money.
Shame the taxpayers haven't worked out the margin call aspect yet. Who will tell them ?
Bernanke also said that, too.
Outstanding
Good article.
The Establishment and Mainstream Media is losing control of the PEOPLE and as a result vehemently ATTACKING ALTERNATIVE NEWS. Suddenly, anyone that does not agree with the Socialist policies of the Obama Administration is an ENEMY OF THE STATE!
Watch the video “The Establishment is Losing Control” at (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JIDs7Luwxg).
Anonymous-
“We do not have much time left before the FREEDOM of Americans is robbed by our leaders, the Internet Censored, Guns confiscated and the PEOPLE jailed for speaking truth!”
I might like to move to the state of euphoria, it can't be as broke as CA
thank you, Mr. Cole, for your insightful comments.
(and Zero Hedge for disseminating his analysis).
This article combined with the knowledge that POMO is implemented by a 26 yr old who has not left school yet has left me with a sense of wonderment. I rarely write long comments but this will be an exception. I have for years now been following this drawn out saga of financial collapse and mal-investment. As much as I have learned here and elsewhere the most repeated concept seems to be that this major events are always much more slow in coming than one might expect. I was certain for instance that the fall of 2007 should have played out like fall of 2008 did. I literally watched every tick of every market for a sign that the rest of the world realized how off the rails the economy really was. This scenario has been repeated more times than I care to admit. I like so many others can't time the markets. This simple observation is what lies at the heart of my fascination with the next collapse in all asset classes. It is going to come, the math is simply inescapable. The collapse will come and the tells that we will see are not nearly as esoteric as the author of this article would have us believe. For instance there was a moment in August 2007 where Jim Cramer might have done the only honest thing in his whole life. The sheer terror he expressed on national TV could not have been more clear about the severity of the situation. Later that fall when talk of a "Super SIV" to toss all the drecky mortgages was announced and abandoned it became even more clear that prudent investors should get out of the market. With these types of obvious signs it should be easier than one might think to predict the next leg down within 6-12 months. That is a long time to sit out but the downside is fighting 50% rallies that plagued the Dow in the 1930s and the Nikkei since 1990. So what are these tells? I am not sure but they will wreak of desperation; things like opening the SPR to lower oil prices or declaring tax holidays. Basically a series of last ditch efforts to restart the growth engine. A bit like in a horror movie scene the main characters will turn the key over and over trying to make the car start and drive to safety, each successive attempt will hammer home the futility and irrationality of turning a sharply cut piece of metal in specific manner to escape certain death. A manner akin to a shaman sacrificing a child in the depths of a solar eclipse to make the sun return. The actions are meaningless and the result is predetermined.
HB / You counter with some very good observations in response to Chris' report on VOL. I think many of us in the fund community (honest, realisitc ones) are surprised at the length of time this counter rally has taken the markets, without any major retracement or retest of certain lows. However, as I remind many of our younger managers, BE PATIENT. Manage your risk well, and do not over leverage. Our system is badly, badly broken. Hang in there.
I will get to know more new information. Even the website layouts and the designs impress me a lot.
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