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Must Read: Standard Chartered Issues The Definitive Report On Global Inflation And Its Miscontents

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Every now and then, Standard Chartered has a knack for coming up with that one report that is miles ahead of the competition and promptly becomes the definitive guidebook for the industry. Its most recent one: "Inflation: illusionary, inflammatory" is arguably one of the most detailed and comprehensive reports to come out from an institutional entity in a long time, dealing with the ever so sensitive topic of, you guessed it, inflation. And while it is guaranteed that the Fed will read neither this report, nor today's earlier announcement that food prices hit another all time high in January, we urge all readers to at least familiarize themselves with the contents herein. In addition to providing a case by case geographic atlas of which the next riskiest Tunisia-like countries are, the report includes a unifying thematic overview that explains not only why the global liquidity glut is long overdue to be pulled back, but what the next (and last) steps available to central bankers are before a wave of global unrest undoes 100 years of failed Federal Reserve policies. An absolute must read.

The key points in the report:

  • We see three broad themes over the coming months: (1) a burst of strong US growth near-term followed by renewed disappointment; (2) periodic waves of concern over European debt as austerity bites; and (3) rising inflation in emerging economies that threatens to bring sharp monetary tightening and socio-political instability.
  • Of these three themes, rising inflation in the emerging markets (EM) - especially countries in the Middle East and North Africa - complicated by political and demographic challenges, could risk inflaming socio-political tensions and destabilising growth.
  • Even in Asia, where fundamentals are strong and consumer price inflation should be contained below 2008 highs, the risk is that governments may act too late – or worse, mis-diagnose and make the situation worse. Among those running higher risks are Vietnam, China, South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines.

The report conviently lists the types of countries that will suffer the most:

  1. Economies with large food and energy components in their consumer price baskets, such as the Philippines, China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam
  2. Those that suffered less in the Great Recession or rebounded strongly afterwards, and therefore have small or even negative output gaps and little spare capacity to buffer growing demand. In addition to the five countries mentioned above, which all escaped recession during the crisis, Singapore and South Korea – both of which enjoyed quick and sharp recoveries – are high on the list.
  3. Countries whose central banks are slow or late to act – such as Indonesia and the Philippines, where policy rates are still at their post-crisis lows – are running an increasing risk of falling behind the curve, or at least of being perceived that way.
  4. Governments that focus on addressing the symptoms rather than the sources of their problems, or put emphasis on the wrong places.

Our advice: call your broker tomorrow, and load up on as much CDS as you can for each and every liquid name that conforms to these criteria.

And most notably, why non-core really is core, especially in Asia:

  • An obvious source of the recent acceleration in CPI inflation is higher food and energy prices, driven partly by  improving demand amid the global recovery and partly by supply disruptions due to poor weather. While the West treats food and energy prices as ‘non-core’ given their volatile nature and relatively small weightings in consumer baskets, for Asian consumers, a much larger 30-55% share of expenditure goes towards food and energy. Non-core inflation in the West is core inflation in Asia. It is therefore risky to focus too much on conventional ‘core’ inflation as the yardstick for policy action

In other words, when Bernanke is waving his hands in the air screaming "non-core" like a delirious imbecile, while Asia is burning, it really won't help anyone...

Full report.

 

 

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Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:48 | 933709 celticgold
celticgold's picture

the first with nuttin

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 00:56 | 933842 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Clever. (I think)

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 05:06 | 934012 Michael
Michael's picture

I just thank God the United States is virtually bankrupt at this point in time.

Otherwise, our government would be interfering in the Egyptian revolution in ways unimaginable.

Jazeera English: Live Stream

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 06:44 | 934062 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

God forbid our president should merely talk about freedom though, apropos of protestors in, say, Iran.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 07:50 | 934098 creviceCaress
creviceCaress's picture

 

yo michael....um...u.s. in egypt....er..

....uuhhh  theyre not  ?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:09 | 934464 rocker
rocker's picture

It's O.K. We can't go bankrupt. We have a printing machine.  Yup.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:11 | 934935 Michael
Michael's picture

I knew I could count on Chumbawamba. Good comments all.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:50 | 933714 Twindrives
Twindrives's picture

Benocide bitches.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 01:56 | 933926 gloomboomdoom
gloomboomdoom's picture

comments like this make me nervous. Where is Tim Geithner?

Why does it take a collapsing government in Egypt to see Hillary Clinton?

Why did Bill campaign against Rand Paul?

What is this about?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cX3y2jgK2kU

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 03:06 | 933987 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Where is Tim Geithner?

Right now?  Probably sleeping.  Or masturbating.  Or doing his taxes on TurboTax.

Why does it take a collapsing government in Egypt to see Hillary Clinton?

Because she's an obnoxious whore and nobody likes her and they try to roll her out only when absolutely necessary.  That being said, I submit she adds nothing to the equation, and in fact she detracts from the situation by being such a horrid cunt.  Her smugness alone adds points to the interest we pay on our national debt.  I'd punch her in the balls if I didn't think she'd enjoy it.

Why did Bill campaign against Rand Paul?

Because he's a stupid Democrat and Rand Paul was running against a Democrat.  If that is not obvious to you then you must be a teenager who does not really understand American politics.  Or some dumb foreigner.

What is this about?

That is a really good question.  Speaking of, why do you have so many of them?

Whatever, I hope I was of service to you.

I am Chumbawamba.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 07:49 | 934104 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

"Because she's an obnoxious whore and nobody likes her and they try to roll her out only when absolutely necessary.  That being said, I submit she adds nothing to the equation, and in fact she detracts from the situation by being such a horrid cunt.  Her smugness alone adds points to the interest we pay on our national debt.  I'd punch her in the balls if I didn't think she'd enjoy it."

TD ought to give you contributorship.  A front page by-line with daily analysis of current events.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:28 | 934548 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Yeah, I agree ;)

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 09:38 | 934314 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

excellent analysis

"horrid cunt"

cuts to the chase

nuff said

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 09:53 | 934396 Blankman
Blankman's picture

"I'd punch her in the balls if I didn't think she'd enjoy it."

 

Thanks Chumba.  That line livened up my morning!!!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 03:20 | 933998 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

cuz she dont like getting out much after coming under sniper fire at a sarejevo airport.

...

well, she was at an air port and there where snipers.

umm they where our own snipers, but never let facts get in the way of a good spin

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 05:56 | 934043 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Obama and Hillary slipping a Gerbil up Mubarak's ass. Mubarak is getting from the US what Mubarak gave to Egyptians. Hopefully the Egyptians will treat him in kind with the insertion of a camel.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 06:55 | 934068 4xaddict
4xaddict's picture

he's got his 76.4 tonnes of the shiney sweet stuff and no inclination to return. Mubarak isn't the one with the gerbil problems, it's his extended family/connections who didn't get out.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:52 | 933719 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I have not read this yet, but will now.

Slightly off topic for those repositing what might be too much faith, by miles, in ChairShitStain Bernanke -

The 100% confident Ben Bernanke and his amazing track record:


Bernanke speaking on October 27, 2005: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust - washingtonpost.com

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 01:05 | 933858 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

He had to say that. Any public official who made such a statement and followed through on it would have been blamed.for the bust to follow. Now that we have experienced this future fed chairmen will feel more free to.call out bubbles, except the current bubbles that are necessary to get the rebalance over with. Obviously he cant admit that either in public.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 01:37 | 933904 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I don't follow your logic.

He couldn't have said "I'm not sure," or that "It's my opinion that housing is frothy?"

He had to say that there was definitively no bubble in housing?

Why, again, do you suggest this?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 07:48 | 934101 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

from the article

 

But if Bernanke is confirmed as Fed chief, and if the housing market slows more than he expects, he would be unlikely to use the central bank's power over short-term interest rates to prop up falling housing prices for the sake of individual homeowners, according to comments he has made in numerous speeches and statements in academic papers.

 

HA HAHA HA

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:26 | 934145 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

I have not read this yet, but will now

 

 

How can you comment on anything if you have not read it???  What? just to jump in front of someone who has read it and does have something to say, just to post what you want ???

 

As for the article...commodity shortages be it because of scarcity or affordability leads to war...plain and simple and someone wants this to go around the world.  The one time bomb the articles doesn't mention is Packistan, which has all the problems and nuclear bombs too.

 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:58 | 933733 Muir
Muir's picture

Thank you.

 

Off to bed but it does seem like a worthwhile read from what I did read.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 00:08 | 933739 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Its getting late. I will read this tomorrow after my breakfast, Morning dump and POMO ritual. Goodnite

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 00:14 | 933765 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

The fast money team on Cnbc recommends Mens Wearhouse because the suits are almost all polyester there and not cotton. The desperation grows......

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 01:15 | 933870 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@ I think  I need ...

If Mens Wearhouse is the future of fashion, I almost don't care about "winning the future" (h/t Obama/Newt) anymore.  Seriously, the.ben.bernank has created a world where no body wins, not even the winners.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 07:51 | 934108 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

But they say you won't believe how good you'll look.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 06:40 | 934059 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Plastic clothes suck!

In addition, they are hot in summer and cold in winter.

...I suppose polyester leisure suits and disco is on the way back?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 06:58 | 934070 4xaddict
4xaddict's picture

CNBC are so %$#&ing stupid. Any half decent suit is made from wool.

As you say, w[hy]tf would anyone buy a polyester suit short of making an appearance before a judge.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 00:42 | 933817 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

GBP Halifax might be a slight mover. Here comes the ACB rinse wash. Oh wait it'sFriday risk off. And eur and gbp got hammered. Sorry

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 00:45 | 933822 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

I looked up Ben Shalom Bernanke on wilkipedia just now.

The silver bowl cut and neatly trimmed fuzziness, the steely gaze and benevolent air.

No wonder Wall St love him.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 06:21 | 934034 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

BigDuke6:  this IS Command Sp5 slewie:

hilary got back to me;  we're not goin surfin.

apparently, the pirates are ALREADY organized.  by china, via the european union, and certain insurance firms.  she did want to thank us for our shitheadness;  she had not been aware of the situ being organized b4 our inquiry.

she didn't know what USARV was.  i can personally assure you she will never have THAT question, again.

nice to recon a bit w/you, 6. thirty years+ is a heluva long time. make sure you use plenty of sunscreen and never lose the hat.  although you guys will always be a bunch of pussies to me, i just happened to be in the parrot's beak, drinkin and smokin with the local macv's, when you ladies went into cambooja, and fyi, i was VERY impressed that morning.  just serendipity, i guess...never seen anything like it!  one horizon to the other, nothin but hueys, cobras, loch's, skyhooks...the ground started shaking about 0430 and i thought the hooch was comin' down around my ears, if you copy.

good evening, sir! and that comes with a snappy salute from this em.

fly air america!

slewie out.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 07:08 | 934078 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Was up the Nong river, Slewie ma man.

Past the bridge at Dow-Long. Lotta smoke up there from the buds.

Gave me a rash and a powerful hunger. 

We'll get that surf - but blackhawk down is done.

i'll see you in Thailand!!

BD6

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 07:54 | 934109 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 

really?  i must be getting tired, or old, or both, but it was 40 years, 6.

i can imagine you were starved!  do you miss the jelly on yer morning toast?

ill bet the rash wasn't 1/2 as bad the the one you got in bangkok!

seeya on the funway!

CSp5 slewie.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:31 | 934152 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Rash slewie? its never gone... but gone crusty green... like Yoda's buttcrack now...

i hope everyone here took my advice not to go short AUD.  Long AUD and ride the commodity super cyclone.

The winds went by and the march into march continues.

i was crouching in the jungle... getting stronger... while the chinaman drinks Lagavulin scotch in his empty apartment block, smashing mirrors and getting weaker....

Stay frosty.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:01 | 934357 hangemhigh
hangemhigh's picture

TO:  slewie the pi-rat
on Fri, 02/04/2011 - 05:21
#934034

"apparently, the pirates are ALREADY organized.  by china, via the european union, and certain insurance firms."

 

slewie, is this reliable info??    if so, what can you say about your sources??  does the idf have a piece of the deal??

very bad sign if the pla/euro's have secured that surfing spot................. 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 00:49 | 933830 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

That beautiful BLU chart sould be converted in Green. Thanks for the art.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 00:50 | 933832 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Infinity was my thought.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 00:52 | 933834 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Look at that population age spread for Egypt (page 8).  Similar young people (unemployed males) trends to follow in Egypt's tumultuous footsteps.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 01:24 | 933883 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Good point. I got this shed that racoons populated. Hey I just let um do their thing. They leave me alone

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 01:26 | 933886 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

It really is the young Females you need to worry about. As cute as they are. ??????

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 00:59 | 933845 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

One man's core is another man's noncore. This is why we win the final round of beggar thy neighbor. We let them all win by default the last few rounds, but now the usa has decided to enter the game and shake off all those pesky parasites and their unofficial and official unfair pegs as well as their soft peg like "targets" these countries need to conduct an independent monetary policy that fits their circumstances and quit.copying the fed move for move because they dont have enough chips to play this next round. They will either conduct monetary policy befitting their.circumstances or they will go through a catastrophe and end up repegging anyway. Sure some people think it was great to get all this subsidy from the third world, but they all planned to revalue after they stole enough of our service and industrial base, and then charge us out the wazoo. No way should we let them complete their strategy. They need to compete fairly./p>

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 01:02 | 933854 KickIce
KickIce's picture

PMs flat with all the global unrest?  Can the banks game the system for another year?  Can we dodge a major political event with all the unrest in the ME?

US consumer is tapped out and the BDI illustrates this.

Big key for US is fuel costs, if they increase as expected consumer sentiment will tank.  Food obviously will be a concern for many.  How many more will be added to the government payroll?  Cloward-Pivan(sp) anybody?

Residential and commercial real estate.

One of these days somebody's going to flinch and the rules are going to change.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 01:02 | 933855 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

The 3 broad themes; Goldilocks........not too hot, not too cold, just about right. McKinsey

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:12 | 933921 gloomboomdoom
gloomboomdoom's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArGW17qNRwkf

^^^The squid is getting nervious! Audit the FED!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 05:58 | 934044 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

sweetheart, this intel is 17 mo. old, ok?

the squid is GS:  goldman sachs.

the FED is the Creature form Jeckyll Is.

read the article;  try the quiz, below, if you like.

and, yes, let's get the forensic accountants to check out what's under those 13 skirts.

ron's a gyno; trust him.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:09 | 933937 anonnn
anonnn's picture

OT Sybil Edmonds direct knowledge of"Kamkaze Pilots" pre-911; stunning 

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27406.htm   

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:45 | 933972 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Now THAT'S must read.

And someone junked you.  That is so awesome.  If I wasn't Mormon I'd just touch myself.

I am Chumbawamba.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 07:51 | 934107 creviceCaress
creviceCaress's picture

 

 

hey chumba, chu got the special underwear too?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:29 | 933960 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

This may be "must read" for you finance nerds but this is pretty banal stuff on my end, at least the parts that I read where I would know something to compare.  It's also pretty mainstream Keynesian type jibber jabber of central banks and IMF and oh what a bore.

Sorry.

I am Chumbawamba.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:20 | 934137 taraxias
taraxias's picture

best post on the entire thread

must read my ass

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 03:01 | 933981 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

No comment.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 03:07 | 933989 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

You just did.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 03:05 | 933986 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Ok Cnbc has resorted to kiet obumerman clips beating in Carl Rove. The Spelling is intended.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 03:06 | 933988 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Hey John Edwards is a human (comedian)

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 03:12 | 933992 What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

They seemed to rely heavily on their assumption that each and every nation will react perfectly to each situation.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 03:24 | 934001 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

yeah like protectionismm

USA USA USA say bye bye to sub $100 1tb HDD if you start making em at home

and smartphones lol try a can with 2 bits of string for networking

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 04:28 | 934014 dondonsurvelo
dondonsurvelo's picture

Gold at $1200 in 2012 is a bit of a stretch.  It means that everything is hunky dory with no inflation or deflation in 2012.  I am not sure how serious this piece really is.  Obviously the US will have taken care of the trillions in debt and interest rates on the bonds will be low enough that the US govt can pay the interest without asking the Fed to print more money.  I mean really, the debt will only be 70% of GDP in 2012 and that is public debt not gross debt.  You can't forget our buddies Frannie and Freddie.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 04:28 | 934015 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

 

Read entire report. Where's my test?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 06:56 | 934021 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i didn't read the entire report, but ignorance is one of my strong suits, so here we goooo!

1) a)what is standard chartered? b) whoregulates them?  punintendid~~~;)

2)  why can't vietnam feed itself, even if it does have high inflation?

3)   how can india feed itself?

4)   is  So. Korea in good shape or bad shape?

5)   do you think we are gonna let the philippines go in the crapper?

6)    tyler seems to think the US is exporting inflation. what is his argument?

7)    batmanke seems to hold a contary opinion.  what is his argument?

8)    which position do you prefer?  6)?  or 7)?

9)    singapore is mentioned. good shape or bad shape?

10)   according to the article, who is gonna make this better, and how are they gonna do it?

THE END

 

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 07:18 | 934083 CPL
CPL's picture

1) a)what is standard chartered? b) whoregulates them?  punintendid~~~;)

 

Themselves mainly.  Only time the public gets involved is by media source illustrating if the actions were contrary to the needs of of the bond/stock/bits of paper holders.

2)  why can't vietnam feed itself, even if it does have high inflation?

Too many people.  Not enough room to grow food.  You have a finite amount of space to grow food on proves farming land.  Then some dimwit enters into the scene and says "condos".  Suddenly growing more is a problem because people now occupy the space.  Human population is always overlooked, well, ignored really.

3)   how can india feed itself?

1.6 billion people in an area the size of Texas, limited water, limited space.

4)   is  So. Korea in good shape or bad shape?

See Vietnam

5)   do you think we are gonna let the philippines go in the crapper?

By "we", you mean the US?  Yeah, probably.  After a while the center does not hold.  With summer coming I doubt two million standing troops could aid in any meaningful way.  The empire is going to have to pick its battles carefully and which governments it chooses to prop up.

6)    tyler seems to think the US is exporting inflation. what is his argument?

We get expensive oil.  It takes 100 calories of energy (oil, coal, etc..) to make a single calorie of food.  As arable land shrinks along with output we enter into a cycle of less produce to sell and more mouths to feed world wide, including first world nations.  This rise in cost ends up being subsidized by people outside of the food producing nations.

Think about milk in general.  Milk should cost around $20 a gallon with all costs added in.  How do we lower the cost, pass it along to others.  sorry about the bold, hit a ctrl <something> and it's too early to figure out what i did.

 

7)    batmanke seems to hold a contary opinion.  what is his argument?

THe Bernake spouts whatever he needs to in order to get by in a single day

8)    which position do you prefer?  6)?  or 7)?

Neither...I am a fan of a smaller world population, but since the obvious solution isn't being presented, I'll wait for the eventual starvation of billions.

9)    singapore is mentioned. good shape or bad shape?

it's completely dependent on foreign food sources. for the size of its population.  If disruptions happened for around a month it would mean a lot of people would die.  In turn you might not get that new stick of ram or iPod for Xmas.

10)   according to the article, who is gonna make this better, and how are they gonna do it?

They aren't, the article is only fact dump.  As in, this is what we know and can project in numbers if things keep heading the direction it's going in.  So far the soothsayers in all these reports have come up short and have maintained some type of "we're human and we'll pull it off".  Basically, they are still being overly optimistic and assuming that the problem can be fixed with a hidden option, yet leave all options that are morally questionable off the table like culling the human herd.

Since the human herd is dumb, we gladdly ignore it, continue to fuck ourselves out of existence and shit in our own sandbox on a daily basis.  So we will pretend like science has the answer, but science has been very busy with the human resources on developing boner pills, hair cream, foot powder and new and improved gasoline that smells like bubble gum when we drive.  The development that needed to happen, needed to happen 30 years ago.

 

Now we just watch the clock.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:27 | 934146 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Thank you CPL, this is about the only intelligent comment in this thread so far.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 09:36 | 934297 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  A quibble, it is 10:1 for the energy food ratio....

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:49 | 934646 CPL
CPL's picture

That's just for oil inputs. Most of what we do to continue the cold chain also uses nuclear, coal, hydro.

Literally where ever we can obtain power from to keep goods from perishing.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:16 | 934956 prophet
prophet's picture

#3 - Not that it helps, but India is about four times the size of Texas. Mughal's ruled! 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 05:17 | 934025 DeltaFunctionToronto
DeltaFunctionToronto's picture

Tyler, tell the kids the truth.

We are so close to a revaluation and re-anchoring of currencies to a commodity base it is not funny.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 07:20 | 934086 CPL
CPL's picture

Powers that won't let that happen.  Too much wrapped up in IOU's with bonds and the like.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:50 | 934653 CPL
CPL's picture

True to some degree, but just because a plan is put forward doesn't neccessarily guarentee the outcome.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 05:36 | 934035 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Do not hack me. I'm on a g-5 refueled over the south pacific

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 05:43 | 934037 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Yes Brisbane bounde for the first stop. Ohh the bounce . Gotta love it. It will die off here. Celll phones don't work over the deep south pacific. G-5's do

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 05:46 | 934038 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Gotta take care of my mates in northern queensland.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 06:36 | 934057 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

give 'em our best, if you would YC.

if you could get a coupla cases of those great hats, it'd help pay for the trip, i'm pretty sure.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 06:58 | 934072 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

So those who didn't have a real crisis are fucked now?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 07:26 | 934090 CPL
CPL's picture

It's not really looking at the "reality", it's looking at trends.  I still think it'll be worse than these guys have published.  They are just looking at human capital and not pushing the envelope further to understand that chaos theory works well in this situation.  Guy "A" dies and doesn't go to work.  The Line manager in third world shit hole tells guy "B" that he's doing guy "A's" job.  Guy A and B work at a factory where they produce flu shots.  Guy B misses a bad batch, bad batch is sent.  Turns into dead k-8 kids being told they need their flu shot.

 

The system is complex enough that a single failure can/will develop into cascading failure will effect other parts of the machine/society.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 07:28 | 934092 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Will have to read this in detail later but that's what it says. It sounds counter-intuitive which means it's probably good speculation. :)

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:04 | 934123 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Cramer gave gold 2000 a big booyah
Goldman sachs says gold going up
Larry kudlow says gold going up
98 percent of zero hedge thinks gold is going up
Who is the marginal buyer the next two months?
Seriously...who? I am curious where the additional demand will come from. Seems like anybody who is anybody already has all the gold they want in their portfolios.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:21 | 934138 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

I hear there are a lot of guns and gold at the bottom of the ocean.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:54 | 934186 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

Those of us who trade oil

hjave understood for a decade or more what is happening and what is going to happen.

 

consequently, every time that we make a "windfall profit"

we skim off the top and use the proceeds to bvuy more gold.

And that happens pretty often these days.

No one ever has "enough" gold ...

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:14 | 934130 pat53
pat53's picture

yawn

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:26 | 934141 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

At this point, nothing is baked into any pie. The only thign you can count on is change.

Probably violent change at that. Shelves empty in a day. 20% or more price increases on essentials in a week.

iPads for a 100 bucks, so you can eat virtual potatoes.

Needs expensive wants cheap. 

Count on it.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/the-callousness-of-pornography/

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:32 | 934159 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Oh, I second that.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 09:17 | 934230 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Cause we're going to need more
than money and science
to see us through this world

David Gray

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:36 | 934581 Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

excellent speeches, filled with nice thoughts and half truths.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:27 | 935281 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

250,000 thousand jobs created a month and a gdp of 2.9% for the US in 2011. I would be very suprised with their optimistic forecast with housing getting worse.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:01 | 935441 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

BTFD!

 

It's all about commodities---oil, gold, platinum and food.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:05 | 935462 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

BTFD!

 

It's all about commodities---oil, gold, platinum and food.

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