Must Watch Kyle Bass Interview: "I Don't Know How I Can Be Long Stocks"

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Tue, 08/17/2010 - 13:27 | 526356 taraxias
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We need a Leo vs. Kyle debate. Now THAT would be something......PMSL

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 14:31 | 526531 Alexandre Stavisky
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Global contraction due to debt saturation mandates long-term contraction.  Demographic change will pressure pensions and insurance.  Since contraction suggests losses on principal instead of actuarial expected growth, capital will decline in purchasing value.  Business model for finance, insurance, real estate, gov't will be long term decline....unless revolution (the abrubt repricing of liberty which is the inevitable outcome of all these events) change the structure of society.  Don't fear financial restructuring (an absolute must) so much as coup d'etat restructure.  Some say we've already passed through its first stage.

Organic investment of savings in equities and bonds will eventually terminate.  Hedge funds and prime movers have too much of a view of small traders actions.  They are plucking them in a rigged game.  No fundamentals back investment moves any more.  For instance, why now, when the supply of US treasuries is at an unbelievable high, and indeed, exceeds all the surpluses of creditor nations and their constituencies, are bonds pricing at lowest yield in a half generation?

Stealth money printing and central global bank collusion.  Purchasing power is evaporating.  TPTB will try to mask the effect by preserving nominal figures on promised entitlements but they can only do so by dilution. 

As expressed before, the global reserve currency has exceeded all possibilities within its parameters of the time continuum and all the resource and labour inputs.  It has moved from an asset backed collateralized instrument (past works), to a debt backed claim upon futurative tax receipts garnered from production (present and future), to exceeding in interest demands the carrying capacity of the globe's population.  Henceforth its debt issuance is merely open printing obscured by promissory notes and IOUs with no potential of ever being repaid.

All of the former 20 years' trappings of wealth shall become an albatross upon every marriner's neck.  Bondage will be any consumptive possession as its will spawn class warfare and varying degrees of state confiscation to feed the usury monster.

Someone invoked a powerful milieu who worships some demon.  It has been conjectured that perhaps this is the ancient Molech, an ammonite deity.  If so, usury would be the superlative means by which to sacrifice one's children, casting their future claim on any abundance of life upon an altar for fiery consumption.  It will exterminate them root and stock.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 16:12 | 526830 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Alexandre,

You nailed it...demographics. Easily ignored short term....unless you are near the time period when the demographic shift is occurring...which we seem to be.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 17:48 | 527065 cat2
cat2's picture

Weren't bond holders wiped out in the Great Depression?

Wed, 08/18/2010 - 02:17 | 527675 ED
ED's picture

Could somebody flesh out what Kyle was about the say at the end of the first part when he said this is a secular change?

Wed, 08/18/2010 - 08:38 | 527851 DavidC
DavidC's picture

ED,
A simplistic reply, but basically we've had a 50 to 60 year bull market with concomitant growth of credit (and, thus, debt). In the cycle it's been growth. We're now entering the part of the (grand? Super?) cycle where this debt is going to paid down and we'll be in a state of contraction.

Ben, Timmy et al either don't see it, don't acknowledge it or are trying to stop it.

King Canute (Cnut), apparently, when he supposedly tried to hold the waves back, was NOT trying to show that he COULD, he was trying to show his (fawning) courtiers that he COULDN'T and there were powers greater than he, the King.

DavidC

Sat, 08/21/2010 - 13:39 | 534897 sureseam
sureseam's picture

Good points well made.

Mostly when folk refer to Canute on the web, they are 180 degrees wrong.  So it is a delight to encounter someone who gets what the wise man was about - thank you.

Bernanke and Geithner are tinkering at the edges but have less chance of stopping the oncoming depression than they do of stopping the next hurricance rolling over Gulf of Mexico.

Sat, 08/21/2010 - 14:24 | 534942 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

hey, im finally am seeing and getting how wise teacher's, teach. thanks, davidC.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 16:55 | 526943 G. Marx
G. Marx's picture

 

+++

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 21:43 | 527425 illyia
illyia's picture

Again, this can be simplified, albeit with ugly rigor:

First we eat our children

Then we eat each other

Then we eat ourselves

...

Wed, 08/18/2010 - 11:24 | 528162 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

well, damn it you can dream, can't you. set your sights on something, doesn't really matter in your mind. sorry, i stole your coin collection.

Wed, 08/18/2010 - 11:55 | 528255 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Good morning Kathy, nope, coin collection still here...must've hit the wrong house.

Wed, 08/18/2010 - 11:09 | 528136 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

i guess i went to bed tooooo early late night. well, i am a morning person anyway bitchez.

Wed, 08/18/2010 - 01:55 | 527665 Thomas
Thomas's picture

That was the spookiest ten minutes of doom that I've ever watched (and thanks for the easy math problem!)

Wed, 08/18/2010 - 20:27 | 529378 jpk
jpk's picture

Agree, thanks for posting that video.  It was fantastic.  Kyle Bass is my new hero.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 16:59 | 526756 akak
akak's picture

We need a Leo vs. Kyle debate. Now THAT would be something......

There simply would not and could not be any such debate, as Mr. Bass would wipe the floor with Leo within the first two minutes, as Leo invariably resorted to his usual methods and fell back on the only tactics the fervent, desperate and intellectually bankrupt establishment defender can fall back on: bluster, obfuscation, appeals to authority and ad hominen attacks.  We've seen it all endlessly already. 

For those pathetically blinkered and morally withered souls such as Leo, whose minds are closed and whose thoughts cannot escape the narrow limits set for them by the power elite, no amount of evidence or argument, no matter how compelling, is going to sway them from their hysterical support for the political and financial status-quo from which they derive their livelihoods, their values and their very self-identities.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 20:04 | 527287 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

So sad to see someone obsess so much over me.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 21:45 | 527308 akak
akak's picture

"Leo", if you honestly believe that I give you any more thought than the minimum necessary to respond to your sad and amoral pro-establishment blather and kneejerk defenses of systemic financial corruption, then you are even more egotistical and deluded than I gave you credit for.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 20:18 | 527318 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

haha - yes i agree with all this EXCEPT that China Solars will stay strong and provide modest gains amist the chaos..  lol

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 22:23 | 527480 merehuman
merehuman's picture

"Buy the dip Leo" you brought this on yourself.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 22:23 | 527481 merehuman
merehuman's picture

"Buy the dip Leo" you brought this on yourself.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 22:34 | 527500 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

"Buy the dip Leo"

bet she is pretty cheap this time of night, oh i mean her P/E.

Wed, 08/18/2010 - 00:14 | 527596 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Thank you. Third time is the charm. Needed the laugh

Wed, 08/18/2010 - 07:17 | 527783 BoeingSpaceliner797
BoeingSpaceliner797's picture

"Buy the dip Leo."  Leo is purchasing himself?

Wed, 08/18/2010 - 20:31 | 529382 akak
akak's picture

What is the current market value for "Leo the dip"?

I'm guessing that is one market that has NEVER seen a bubble!

Wed, 08/18/2010 - 21:24 | 529455 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

takes one to know one.

but leo the dip, it started out, buy the dip.

oh the dip market, H U G E , not sure if much value.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 23:53 | 527570 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

So... you wanna see the wings of a butterfly being pulled off?

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 13:26 | 526358 perchprism
perchprism's picture

Jubilee, bitchez!!

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 13:28 | 526366 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

Israel has 3 days to hit Iran nuke site. That's good news. I'll buy some too.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 13:45 | 526374 Pamela Anderson
Pamela Anderson's picture

Kyle Bass, Meredith Whitney, John "Mr. FX" Taylor, Daniel Niles..... what a group of hot souls!!!!

Talking business.... I hope AUD/USD goes back to $92-$93 range to short the shit again out of this friend

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 13:34 | 526378 SayTabserb
SayTabserb's picture

Ty,

 

Day after day, nobody says it better.  Keep punching.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 13:36 | 526384 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Not bad CNBC, not bad.  It's nice when someone has the time to explain and defend their position in an interview.  Beats the pants off those ridiculous hydra-boxes.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 15:46 | 526768 akak
akak's picture

It's nice when someone has the time to explain and defend their position in an interview.  Beats the pants off those ridiculous hydra-boxes.

Where's a Herakles when you really need one?

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 13:36 | 526387 Übermensch
Übermensch's picture

We don't have free markets anymore; only manipulations.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 13:38 | 526391 Segestan
Segestan's picture

Nice insight.. but clearly the topic was scripted. The dollar crowd controlling the news in a positive dollar spin. the commentator is a Moron-prick.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 14:23 | 526513 GreenTrader
GreenTrader's picture

Oh, please.  Scripted my ass.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 16:57 | 526951 bonddude
bonddude's picture

+ 10

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 17:58 | 527085 Rainman
Rainman's picture

The discussion points are scripted, of course. Bass' comment about not being able to find a reason to go long equities was not scripted.

Immelt call to Faber after the show: " What da fux a mattah wit you...?? I thought I told you no more bears. This guy's worse than that Whitney chick."

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 20:47 | 527354 Segestan
Segestan's picture

I believe that. Not saying the quest wasn't honest.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 21:32 | 527406 Dburn
Dburn's picture

+1 for the

 

"

What da fux a mattah wit you...?? I thought I told you no more bears. This guy's worse than that Whitney chick.">

 

I think one key moment is when he asked if they had loaded the Charts that he had sent them and there was nothing but crickets.

 

Not that he needed them, but for the word challenged, pictures are always useful. If MSFT spun off PowerPoint software as a Company  and held on to enough of it to put it's earnings on it's financials, they would be considered a growth company again.

 

Yes MSFT's main earnings were , well terrific as usual but the reason the stock is up 47% is PowerPoint Inc's top of the line came in 131% over expectations." "Yeah but Charlie were talking 281 Million dollars here."

"Yeah, so? They're back!"

 

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 13:39 | 526394 GoldmanSux
GoldmanSux's picture

"When you kick your problems down the road, how many times have they gotten better?"

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 13:42 | 526400 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

+100

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 15:00 | 526627 Windemup
Windemup's picture

Sometimes, if I ignore my problems, they go away.

Tue, 08/17/2010 - 16:00 | 526803 Cojones
Cojones's picture

Like when you piss your pants and it's a nice wam day?

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