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Mutual Fund Monday Phenomenon Ends As Monday Close Is Mirror Image Of Friday
Just as Friday saw a massive ramp in the last 30 minutes of trading, so Monday saw a mirror image of Friday's half an hour action, once volume picked up in ES toward the end of the day. And with that the most ridiculous statistical phenomenon in recent history, better known as the Mutual Fund Monday ramp, is now over. This is bad for algos as yet another reliable correlation ends with a bang.
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I love it. Anytime the longs get roasted it's enjoyable and to see manipulation Monday's finally end, oh the joy......
Would someone be so kind as to enlighten me on what ESMO is? Thank you.
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&source=hp&q=ESM0&aq=f&aqi=g1g-s1g1g-s1g3g-m...
Even Bob Pisani couldn't believe it.
However, according to him, "this is NOT unusual in a BULL market"
Ah, gotta love the perma-BS-bulls.
But I guess last fridays ramp up of 150 pts in the last 10 minutes of trading is also NOT unusual in a BEAR market.
+1
duplicate
That is priceless. We have those all the time in a bear market. Bears are known for their explosive action. There's no predicting it--everything's nice and calm and all of sudden, ker blewee...they just blow up. 150 pts... 250 pts... 300... LOL. Love it~
Friday/Monday funnies aside, Europe is collapsing IMO and the rush is on—to safe money. In high tax Italy, tax evasion has become a national sport, more popular than soccer. This is where corruption in politics and central banking leads—to the end of the bankers’ rainbow—a pot of pastrami.
Deleted.
He also made a comment about how it didn't mean much since the volume was low. I kid you not.
lol ya heard that
I am sort of waiting for the most epic collapse....tomorrow? Gold and silver expire, so....
Could the markets lose their shirts and gold maintain? Could gold go to the moon in this scenario? I feel like I am running through the scenarios, and for each one gold comes out on top by a mile.....
And what is the logic in killing all the "other" currentseas, only to have the doelarr stand? Where is the logic in that? The doelarr is just as weak as the Euro, just as weak if not more so! And up until now I was thinking that today was boring.
BP is certainly accelerating the race to the bottom - now the top kill is pushed to Wednesday.
In a world war, you need at least one country (e.g. Switzerland) to remain neutral so that everybody has someplace to run to. In global currency wars, you need at least one currency that will perform the same function. For now, however temporary it might prove to be, that looks like the US dollar.
A couple of years back, Richard Russell suggested that there was a "synthetic short" in the dollar, due to the fact that most of the world's debt was denominated in USD, and debtors would have to scramble for dollars to pay back what they owed. (This is essentially the Prechterite deflation scenario.) But once that debt is repaid or defaulted on, the dollar will be seen as "just as weak as the Euro," and in decreasing demand. At that point, everyone will be looking for another Switzerland to run to, the Fed will be operating the printing presses at hyper-warp speed, and (imho) gold will be seen as the last safe place to hide.
We agree on that last part.
In the case of a war, how the hell will the currencies be used? In my mind I think that they will be so manipulated, it would be hard to get the war off the ground! I see epic failure occurring soon, and this for everybody from the politicos to the average working man. I do not know how they can get out of this predicament this time. They have used all leverage.
NOOOOOO... HOW CAN THIS BE! Can it be true? The days of artificial run ups on Monday have come to an end? *sob*
In other news, there were rumors that the PPT left work an hour earlier than expected today...
Yep, it was 10 mondays up in a row..All good things must come to an end..
This number 10 is beginning to infuriate me.
+10
+10
ahahaha! damn you ;)
You can say that 10 more times.
Of course they did...the bosses are in China.
That, and over at SEC Headquarters they were premiering a new Animal Porn Bloopers, and tapping a keg o Heinie.
Euro/USD correlation during the last 30 minutes @ 100%. Chicken or egg?
"I Need a Hero".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPyrTNXxh5E
That was done using nvidia cuda technology. I can tell by seeing alot of shitty particle effects before in my time.
I watched EUR/JPY which usually gives a hint of the direction of equity markets, but the real sell-off took place in SPX before the pair dropped.
Interesting phenomena today though. Volume on a decent down day was fairly meager. Is this a sign of a reversal? Or at the very least just some churning at this S&P level for a while? I suspect we will learn quite a bit over the next few days.
Uhhh, the volume on up days has been less than meager for about 10-12 months. One down day on basically average volume and this is the sign of a reversal??? 150 up days on 25-50% below average volume is perfectly healthy, but one down day on average volume is noteworthy?
Yes, you are correct. My point is on bigger down days like today, have been accompanied by pretty strong volume. Today was not. We haven't seen that. It'll be interesting to see price action with volume as the week progresses.
Volume is unreliable. I use the "If I was a complete bastard what would I do?" indicator.
Works everytime!
I'm workin' on that theory too. Today even bears thought the market was gonna bounce higher. So what did the bastards do?
Tuesday should be a blow out down, with the Korean "war" thing, on top of everything else. Therefore, tomorrow we gap down, drop til everybody assumes defensive positions, then shoot up to 1100? (Using the bastard theory.)
seems like more guys share same view...bastards just took stop losses on ES...market going higher now
Man you and I both have no idea what is going on. Give me them emerald colored glasses, I need to feel good about something.
Harry, DJ 10,066.6, what you think? They fuckin' with you yet? Probably not....buy aple? Apple is in a bauble.
Harry! This whole thing is set to blow! Mang, where is my mind..........
PS, I did not junk you today, as I think no one has any idea what is going on. But give me them glasses!
I closed out all my longs last week as posted when we dipped below 1110. I went long SDS but sold Friday morning. I'm in cash waiting to see what happens as the week progresses. The lack of volume today on a big down day is interesting. We really haven't seen that. Usually we get much larger volume going down.
I really thought we'd head up over the next couple of days to test the 200 dma. At that point, I wanted to short again. Another down day tomorrow and that test could be a long ways off.
Shoot me now. Went all cash Fri, too.
Ah Harry, ok lets see here....
We broke the moving average last friday, and today probably killed it. Look man, I thought inflation was going to continue to put equities higher, but then they went and did the whole Euro crisis thing. And how could they forgot to mention the dollar crisis? Crisis Harry, motha truckin' crisis! Harry, buy fuckin' gold mang!!! Buy gold and silver and stop trading for the sake of what is good!!!!
Henry, faaauuck, you know what I just realized? Aaple has mirrored SLW...wtf? What does that say Hank?! PPT is using the money they make shorting silver, and they are buying aaple. Apple is in a bauble harry. a mofrukin bauble!!!!
PMs to completely decouple from the market in 5....4......3.....
The market "attempted" to rally for the first FOUR HOURS of the day, thus the low overall volume. Not until the latter half of the day did the selling take over.
Oh, and I don't believe for one second that you are short. It was just a few days...DAYS...ago that you arrogantly belittled anyone who was bearish.
Never belittled anyone on this forum at any time. And I made it quite clear while I was enthusiastically long that if we saw a 10% correction, I would sell and go short. That's exactly what I did. It's all documented here as it happened.
Although you've made (or supported) some outrageous theses on the bull side, I agree, you've been respectful of others and never belittling in your comments.
My two cents - we're oversold here, regardless of how far this will ultimately fall. I think the best proxy right now is mid-2007, although a number of analysts (technical and fundamental) are extraordinarly bearish right now, even given the short-term over-sold. But I think we get at least a week of sideways consolidation and/or rally, and that will be the key to deciding what to do over the summer (assuming a willingness to trade any market any way, regardless of fundamentals). Right now I'm around 75% long junior golds, and around 25% short commercial real-estate, after closing my S&P put positions Friday morning.
Do well Harry. Do well.
You've developed quite the following, Harry. Although I don't know that torches and pitchfork denizens would be what I want following me.
:-)
BTW, there is a bit of overhang from the type of action that we saw on expiration Friday (ie the ramp up) that takes a couple of days to settle out although the action in the last hour of trading is a bit unsettling.
Perhaps someone with some massive firepower is sending a message?
I would be very careful this summer and fall ... the credit markets are in the process of freezing up again. And if the credit markets get cold, the equities take a beating.
I wonder if that guy who made 20k last Friday betting on the last 15 mins of the market also lost $20k today by doing the same thing? In other words, you always hear about the wins - but never the losses.
Let's face it - that guy was just spinning the roulette wheel. A game of chance, and that's not how capital markets are supposd to be run.
Sez who!
LOL Anyone in the market right now who thinks they AREN'T just spinning the roulette wheel is beyond delusional. Don't know what would possess a man to BRAG about $20K in casino loot, but hey, at least they realize it's pointless to bring a kata to a UFC fight.
Could this be a result of the Whit and Victoria Day holidays? Many of Ben's Canadian and Euro co-conspirators were likely taking the day off.
Word. Lower volume accounts for many players at the desks in Toronto and EU being off.
My thoughts exactly. What a farce! The same “Pavlovian Entity” that rammed the market up on Fri at close– floated it all day, to suck in as many longs as possible, and then rip out from under them in equal and opposite fashion.
Third leg of the "W" in full force. See you all with smiles at DOW 5k over next few months.
I would be very careful. If you accept as i do that this is a command market and not a free market it is in the interests of the commanders to bust gold lower than wale shit for a time.
Larry Summers wrote "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard" in 1985, advocating gold suppression. Gold suppression was discussed during Volcker's reign as Fed chairman. Apparently, it has been in the government's interest to bust gold for decades. At this point it is standard operating procedure and no cause for alarm.
It's been in their interest to suppress gold since at least 1913.
The drips at CNBS went through the whole day without mentioning gold. Gold was up $20 all day.
Even that commodities skank didn't mention gold even once. Unreal how they could ignore that big green number all fucking day.
You don't sing happy birthday at a funeral.
Maybe a little early, but quote of the day so far!
Depends on for whom the bell is tolling...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McHyLKw5mHc
Probably Maria Bartiromo was there, saying,"shut up, dont mention about the gold, it is the last thing you should mention in such a bad market ":)
Cancel: Mutual Fund Monday.
Insert: Mutual Fund Redmption Monday
Crap on.......crap off.
As all the perma bears here know, it was manipulated up on Friday but it was fair game on Monday. That's what you guys believe right?
correct. It was manipulated up to hit some key OpEx targets on Friday. Today all eyes were on the 1500 sequential up mondays. When it was clear that was not happening today, all algos positoined for what will be a long week-long down trend.
Fart-
I can't speak for everyone, but I believe the case for a bear market is stronger than the case for a bull market. And the evidence overwhelmingly supports that.
But let's assume for a moment that someone makes a logical and reasonable bull argument....
I wouldn't give a fuck. This market has become utterly impossible to trust, whether it goes up or down. I don't want to trade it; I don't want to own it; I want nothing to do with it. For me, the various bull/bear arguments have been overshawdowed by lack of trust.
And I think that many of the so-called "perma-bears" feel the same way.
+1
+1
Who knows *what* was manipulated. Guessing what is and is not genuine market action is not the right way to allocate capital, and that's the problem. Therefore I am bearish on the whole friggin' deal.
I don't think it was 30 min, more like 10 and total capitulation at the end. PPT should f. stop sleeping @ work...LOL.
p.s. No, we believe a daily 3std/10min is the new historic normal.
Redemptions accelerating I am guess. When does the next phony "R" word announcement come ? As if we ever exited the last "R" !!
Melt-up Monday is on Tuesday this week.
Bet it's not.
Looks like some slow bleed as "de-risking" spreads. Equities will probably keep on their way down until commentators on CNBC finally notice that last year's porkulus rally is over.
Not that the futures have been a good indication the past 2 trading days...but there is no melt-up monday this week. Ill bet it'll occur next week;)
The Euro is going down! BS, why not have you increased the FX? What the hell are these guys doing? I thought we wanted a weak dollar to increase exports? Now wait, with our major import being the dollar....no I am still confused.
What the hell is BS doing???
This is the end...my only friend, the end. Barry really is not that good at reading tella prompters, I do not care what you say. Too bad he does not have Bill and Dubya's photographic memory. Too bad Barry is a nitwhit. Yes he is.
With a telapromter...."Look left and read....snap head right, and read...look left...read...look right...read...."
Without telepromter:
"Uhhh, I think uh, uhhhh.....uh."
Anybody hear about how he read the Irish PMs speach on St. Patties day? The telapromter scrolled back to the top, and Barry did not notice. He read off of it too! Dude is dumb, flat out stupid. And his wife ain't any brighter!
Michelle had her Quayle moment last week when a child asked if her own mother would be deported. That cold hearted wench Michelle said yes. Michelle, who also says "uhh" all the friggin time, is also ignorant and stupid. Summers...stupid. Geithner...stupid. Bernanke? Stupid! Rahm...very stupid.
Ok, yeah scull and bones blah blah blah. Who cares? FINE. Most important, the ideologues running the government are blithering idiots!
Michelle's Potato" moment:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/20100521/ts_ynews/ynews_ts2186
Obama from the school of not....reading.....good:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBXiIBPTh9E
Now for the ZH moment of, "Why hath thou junketh me?"
Yeah I know, the system is going to the ground, and here I am telling you what you knew all along. The system is run by cold hearted and dimwitted sorts, colluding together to form some catastrophe that no one can escape. The worst part? They had no end objective except for destruction. They played CalvinBall with our economy.
Fair enough, junking me, for my rant will not change anything quickly enough to save or sinking ship. Yeah, we should have started cutting back on fossil fuels 20 odd years ago. We should have restored the constitution....when...1859? When did we lose that "piece of paper"? Damn it dubya no one cares what you think. No Jeb Bush/Palin for President. No re-election rhetoric from Barry. No, this SOB has sunk. Do you have a lifeboat?
Good luck everyone, and I mean that.
lennon, i didn't junk you babe. now you know how it feels. i have stopped posting.
had to comment on you my man, though.
but, you talk more than a woman†
Being Junked is usually bad, unless it isn't.
Stopped posting? Don't do it!
Post Vbabe! Post with a dagger!
Prolific yes, more than a woman? hahaha...ok...fair enough.
And whoever junked you is trolling....they do that, I do not know why.
Mr. Hendrix is correct.
Don't pay any attention to the trolls, stalkers, etc..
They are basically harmless although annoying, but remember if you don't get annoyed, they get frustrated and more brazen in their tantrums which can be quite entertaining or boring. Ignore them, they are just a cost of doin' business on the internet.
Just keep on keepin' on velo.
I didn't junk ya, for what it's worth. The fact that our present system is being run by idiots is quite self-apparent at this point.
All negative comments about BHO are racist. Without a race card this guy has not use at all. Barrack Hussein Obama has used at least 3 different SSN during his stay in the USA. Other than fraud, why would you need more than one?
Hmm. Loaded up SQQQs early & took 1/4 off at the close. One of the better timed trades I've made in a long time. Given the action, I think I'll keep the short beta on for a day or two.
MANIPULATION! oh wait...
As soon as one nearly perfect correlation evaporates another takes its place. The DXY today was a trip....
Well everything appears to be falling somewhat into place.
· Wall Street has hardly been able to fool the world into giving them their trust one last time
· Democrats incumbents are being routed
· The big banks are still postponing their losses as the anticipated housing recovery is nowhere in sight and held back inventory will hit the markets along with fresh foreclosures as unemployment benefits end.
· The dollar is rising along with gold much to the Ben’s dismay
· Anger at Wall Street has only increased and not subsided
· The President has all but guaranteed himself of a defeat in 2012 with the slow motion reaction to BP and now is roughly 3 points away from an all time low approval rating.
· Ron Paul is near neck in neck in a recent straw poll and the only way they can discredit him because his message is entirely to rational and unwavering is by painting him as a racist
· Rates have been 0% for 18 months
· Recent Rasmussen poll has 72% believing Congress has no conception of how to handle the economy.
· QE is over (temporarily)
· Tax credit is over
· Banks shot themselves in the foot by causing flash crash to prevent Fed audit and are now being investigated for potentially being the cause (Big surprise for us here at ZH).
· Administration was being bullied by White House press corp when asked they oppose Glass-Steagall
· The President pretends he is against bailouts yet burns the midnight oil on the phone to Merkel, Trichet & Sarkozy in order to force their hand.
· Gold & precious metals are presenting a good case once again for being the only reliable sound money.
· Banks are losing a large portion of their overdraft fee revenues and are now completely reliant on trading revenue that are contingent upon short squeezes and Federal welfare
· States are nearing bankruptcy
· Goldman, J.P Morgan & Moody’s are all under investigation
· Goldman will all but be blacklisted from European nations
· The Federal Reserve has been resorting to financial blackmail to prevent audits and financial regulation and the politicians are becoming aware that a vote for banks will land them on their arse out of office.
Well here we are in 2010 and the stimulus has not reversed job loss and the “we inherited this” rhetoric should begin to pick up once again whilst we send our jobs overseas and continue to allow immigration to claim the jobs Americans supposedly “do not want”. Well I beg to differ because this weekend I passed a Best Buy in Manhattan which had a few positions available for floor reps and I kid you not when I say the line was 120+ deep and these people were dressed as if they were auditioning for The Apprentice.
+1.
The view from here in London is pretty much identical, with a weaker currency. (No I am not sat in Chiswick).
I suspect the view from Tokyo is worse, with an unstoppably strengthening currency.
What the hell is "ES"? Somebody...
The ES futures market is based upon the S&P (Standard & Poors) 500 stock index, which is one of the stock indexes of the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) in the US. The S&P 500 index is calculated using the prices of 500 large capitalization US companies. The ES futures market is traded on the Globex electronic trading system, 24 hours per day from 5:00 PM Central Time on Sunday night to 4:30 PM Central Time on Friday night. The ES futures market has a daily trading volume of approximately 1100000 contracts, and a daily price range of approximately 13 points (52 ticks).
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