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My Briefing from the Joint Chiefs of Staff
I have always considered the US military to have one of the world’s greatest research organizations. The frustrating thing is that their “clients” only consist of the President and a handful of three and four star generals. So I leapt at the opportunity to have dinner with General James E. Cartwright, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Meeting the tip of the spear in person was fascinating. The four star Marine pilot is the second highest ranking officer in the US armed forces, and showed up in his drab green alpha suit, his naval aviator wings matching my own, and spit and polished shoes. As he spoke, I was ticking off the stock, ETF, and futures plays that would best capitalize on the long term trends he was outlining.
The cycle of warfare is now driven by Moore’s Law more than anything else (XLK), (CSCO), (GOOG). Peer nation states, like Russia, are no longer the main concern. Budgeting for military expenditures is a challenge in the midst of the worst economic environment since the Great Depression.
Historically, inertia has limited changes in defense budgets to 5%-10% a year, but last year defense secretary Robert Gates pulled off a 30% realignment, thanks to a major management shakeup. We can only afford to spend on winning current conflicts, not potential future wars. No more exercises in the Fulda Gap.
The war on terrorism will continue for at least 4-8 more years. US troops in Iraq will wind down to 35-50,000 by August to support a large State Department presence. Afghanistan is a long haul that will depend more on cooperation from neighboring Iran and Pakistan. “We’re not going to be able to kill our way or buy our way to success in Afghanistan,” said the general. However, a 30,000 man surge there over the next 18 months will bring an improvement on the ground situation.
Iran is a big concern, and the strategy there is to interfere with outside suppliers of nuclear technology in order to stretch out their weapons development until a regime change cancels the whole program.
Water (PHO), (CGW) is going to become a big defense issue, as the countries running out the fastest, like Pakistan and the Sahel, happen to be the least politically stable.
Cyber warfare is another weak point, as excellent protection of .mil sites cannot legally be extended to .gov and .com sites. We may have to lose a few institutions in an attack to get congress to change the law and accept the legal concept of “voluntarism.” General Cartwright said “Anyone in business will tell you that they’re losing intellectual capital on a daily basis.”
The START negotiations have become complicated by the fact that for demographic reasons, Russia will never be able to field a million man army again, so they need more tactical nukes to defend against the Chinese (FXI). The Russians are trying to cut the cost of defending against the US, so they can spend more on defense against a far larger force from China.
I left the dinner with dozens of more ideas percolating through my mind, which I will write about in future letters.
For more iconoclastic and out of consensus analysis, you can always visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com , where the conventional wisdom is mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, or listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.biz/ .
So what your saying is, the US MIL is still pursuing no win policies and tilting at middle eastern windmills for purposes of regional hegemony and 'because that little nation with a few hundred nukes of it's own told us to'. Sounds like SOP to me.
"meeting the tip of the spear in person was fascinating"...sounds somewhat freudian..hmmm.
Well, be this a legitimate recap or fantasy, it tells me is the US Mil hasn't learned much or internalized lessons from past failures (why start now...), is grossly underestimating the Russians, and has no chance at staying relevant once the inevitable series of worsening economic downturns come home to roost. A lot of their 'problems' are going to solve themselves really, but not in the way they'd like.
TV media coverage, since Vietnam has changed the way that wars are fought. We can (or won't) make Iran as sheet of glass or a new World Park complete with craters. we have developed precision missiles to target individuals in the street to leveling specific buildings etc..the reason.. not to incur collateral damage. Just look at the Israelis fight against Hamas a few years ago..they had to play nice in the sand box because the world was watching and they were worried about world opinion so they got their butts handed to them to a certain degree, stalemated. I believe they learned a valuable lesson there...war is hell and if you are going into it, you go to win. If you think they are waiting for a blessing from Prez O this time when their country is on the line because Iran develops a nuke while Obama fiddles away..I am willing to take on the all bettors that they strike first and deal with the whining and hand wringing at the UN and from the euroids later.
“We’re not going to be able to kill our way or buy our way to success in Afghanistan,” said the general. However, a 30,000 man surge there over the next 18 months will bring an improvement on the ground situation.
What did he mean by improvement? More dead Afghani’s. Did the general by chance share what the objective is in Afghanistan? That would interesting to know.
We may have to lose a few institutions in an attack to get congress to change the law and accept the legal concept of “voluntarism.”
Did the war criminal explain which of his troops would be executing these attacks?
Gotta stop that internet. The damn serfs can find information that is not sanitized.
Did you have to kiss his pinkie ring or lick his boots as the proper salutation?
I have it on good authority that Israel is prepared to strike at Iran's nuclear facilities with bunker buster bombs provided by the U.S. Air Force. Our agreement for their use is reguired and is being withheld by the Administration under the belief that regime change is imminent. Recall that the C.I.A. with the aid of British Intelligence overthrew the Iranian regime in 1952.
Well my inside sources have revealed that Lady Ga Ga is planning her penis reveal on Barbara Walters last ever post-Oscar interview show. Duct tape inventories will be hardest hit.
I can confirm that as well.
The more I read this nonsense, the more I believe that it's being put here on purpose by a plant.
So, madhedgefundtrader, you're a naval aviator too, eh? What color is the boat house at P-Cola?
Always fun to hear from the resident green (onion?) shoot.
Pretty far fetched, IMHO.
Cartwright pumps out PowerPoint bullets shoveled to him by staffers.
His forecasts are as meaningful as those of the guy on the next bar stool over.
"We're not going to be able to kill our way...to success in Afghanistan"
A general said this? Since when are we promoting idiots to flag rank? It would be trivially easy to kill our way to success in Afghanistan. Modern technology makes genocide a prosaic exercise. If we aren't going to kill our way to victory in Afghanistan, it isn't because we CAN'T, but because we WON'T. Big difference.
Indeed, if we followed our strategy in 2001and simply carpet bombed Taliban strongholds until nothing moved, it would be trivially easy to drive the Taliban back to a few caves in the mountains or maybe Waziristan. That apparently would be too simple and inexpensive for the military politicians in Washington. An old military saying "if you're in a fair fight, somebody screwed up" applies here.
OK, joke's up, in case it isn't clear to all - THESE ARE FICTITIOUS REPORTS OF IMAGINED INTERVIEWS.
There, does that help?
zh still lets this clown post here? credibility ++
I think the only reason to read these absurd postings is to have the satisfaction of being angry at this guy's banal and stupid ramblings. He's a relentless name dropper who never has anything insightful or original to say. Get him out of here, he's bringing down the quality of posts on the whole site.
madhedgefundtrader is mad as a hatter, as they say, and completely full of ridiculous statements, musings, imagined dinners, etc. He is so nutty I don't have a clue what to make of him, or what he says, other than to read it, and wonder how he got on ZH. Now, some of what he says is true, which simply proves the adage about a broken clock periodically indicating the correct time.
"The war on terrorism will continue for at least 4-8 more years" is about the most asinine statement I have read of late (and there's a ton of competition), and does a gross disservice to everyone, military, taxpayer, citizen and the like.
Rant (and future readings of this idiot's drivel) off.
>>Iran is a big concern, and the strategy there is to interfere with outside suppliers of nuclear technology in order to stretch out their weapons development until a regime change cancels the whole program.<<
That or someone turns part of Iran into a dense sheet of glass.
The 4-star Gen is so certain that a) regime change will happen, b) it will happen before Iran is capable of testing a nuke, c) the new regime will necessarily cancel the program, and d) other country/countries will also live (and die) by the "hope" of a), b) and c) happening?
Gimme a break.
"I have always considered the US military to have one of the world’s greatest research organizations."
So why do we always get it wrong? Vietnam, Iraq....
"Budgeting for military expenditures is a challenge...."
Duh.
"The war on terrorism will continue for at least 4-8 more years."
The "War on Terror" is "The Big Lie."
Shall I go on?
Our military hasn't won a war since WWII. All we do now is prolong conflicts and destroy wealth.
Not since World War II have we prioritized victory over collateral damage and other considerations.
The massive use of Allied air power on the scale of the raids on Dresden or Tokyo would have eliminated the ability of Afgan villagers to support the Taliban.
It is widely agreed the sheer violence of our Linebacker II campaign shocked the North Vietnamese; had we subjected Hanoi to mass B-52 raids a few years earlier, we might well have won that war.
That's because one man fighting for his liberty is more potent than a dozen hired guns.
Who's got more heart in a fight? The GI, expecting a GI bill for his efforts? Or the guy that's convinced that the GI is an occupying invader.
That's something that the politicians and generals don't get. Nor will they since they never have any skin in the game anyways.
Nothing frosts me more than these privileged jerks that put other people's sons into the meat grinder (for nefarious reasons) but won't toss their own son into squad level, front line combat.
Do as I say.. Not as I do.
@35pete
great comment. dick cheney once said that the dept of defence was not an employment agency. well he might not think so, but the vast majority of the people i served with, including myself treated as such. as far as the military goes, we spent a lot of time discussing how military life sucks, and how he couldn't wait to get out to start using the bribes, i mean benefits. i never heard anyone mention being the service to "protect our freedoms". but i will tell you this, i could write for another 15 minutes listing all of the colleges we would attend. it's funny i remember once being in the persian gulf, with chinese silkworm missiles locked onto us by iram, and the seriousness of the expressions on the faces of the people in my anti-missile department. it was like a slap in the face, we were reminded that we were in the military.
General Cartwright said “Anyone in business will tell you that they’re losing intellectual capital on a daily basis.”
Not quite sure what this means... is it something in the water cooler?
Wow. "Intellectual capital" is such a dehumanizing way of referring to "really smart human beings".
Ummm ... OK, if true, isn't this sort of a state secret? And if it is, why are you posting it on a public website?
Seems strange to me that you get the opportunity to meet with so many Very Important People who give you so many confidential secrets and don't mind that you post them everywhere.
And hasn't Iran already more or less admitted that they have everything they need to be a full-fledged nuclear state?
Exactly how and why do you get to meet with these heads of state, military, and intelligence organizations?
We discussed that very question the other day at lunch with Jimmy Hoffa and Elvis.
No one seems to know whether Hoffa is dead or not but he has been missing for about 36 years.
Bullshit. I just had a beer with John Belushi yesterday and he knew Elvis, and he swears up and down that he's DEAD.
I can't stand a bullshitter.
I was having a beer with John Belushi yesterday and he says that you're full of shit. He knew Elvis and personally swears that Elvis is dead.
Yawn. Next.