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If the mkt is going to confound the maximum number of people, a more likely scenario would be up in Sept., down post election.
This is all bull-sh*t. Please give some reasons before predicting market will do this or that.
I wonder if MHFT is related to Jonny Bravo. Or is perhaps his idol.
Did you forget your YCS tout.....
As a great trader told me 30 years ago, "those that tell don't know, and those that know, don't tell" Unless, of course you're paying 2 and 20 for the privledge. If MHFT were any good, he'd at least be charging a subscription for his wisdom, not pimping other sites to get his name out there.
Look there is no uncertainty regarding elections the expectations are GOP takes house and senate stays DEM. The uncertainty you speak of is what maybe brining some optimism to mkt BEFORE elections.
With the expiration of the upper end of the tax cuts, will there be equity selling at the end of the year due to this???? If Obamamamamama had let them all expire I would have expected an end of year ROUT to stock.
Holy crap! This smackdown on MHFT is really quite remarkable! Good thing his opinions are offered free, right? (This bout of distemper is launched by fried shorts, I suspect...)
# for years that a GDP growth rate of 2% justifies.
forgot to add: also 20+% under/un emplyment , and +1.5 trln $ budget deficit..
it will end in 2 years
What is an appropriate p/e for the market in a system that is headed for collapse sometime between tomorrow and 6 months?
why 6 months?
So MHFT, you say you "focused" on 15 separate investments, all of which rang the register huge? Uh, sure, whatever, and I caught a 1000 lb. blue marlin with a worm on a string. By the way, while enumerating all the awesome trades you've made this year, you somehow forgot to mention TBT.
sounds like conventional wisdom to me
Sounds good though.
What do you expect? - we've got another labour lefty government to piss all the money away and hand out other peoples cash to the lazy and themselves
Be careful of the AUD.
AUSTRALIA'S national debt is threatening to crash through the $1 trillion mark for the first time.
republicans=rally, democrats = selloff...
"Not a day goes by when I don’t fall down on my knees and thank the heavens that I avoided equities for much of this year" - SPX -1% YTD. You missed some big losses alright.
I think earnings reports and guidance will disappoint. Seen that with INTC, TXN, etc. Might be priced into some stocks, but not others. I betting on a break below Dow 10k next week. S&P 1040 seems to be the line in the sand. A break below on a 2-3% down day (on bad news) will quickly send us to 1010. PPT won't want a 3-digit S&P, but ultimately that will happen too.
Yes the y-o-y comparisons will be increasingly harder to beat as we have moved beyond the former extreme range.
Ummmm....how come I didn't have to do a triple negative math calculus eqution with an answer requiring three blocks and only being provided with two before being posted? You must have tired of having to zap me in red over and over when I gave you a distorted and then irritable answer. Love it! Ask me something more pertinent like how to shoe a horse or tell a griz from a black bear print. But leave the 1 plus -77 squared questions to those in that kind of know. When the world begins to fall apart those with the math IQ's will be beating a path to the door of those of us who know how to survive in the true sense of the wor(l)d.
Now, now, don't take it personally...Unless you are of course, a ROBOT.
This is afterall, a financially oriented site and math is kinda important. At least, I am pretty sure it is still important.
Today's market action in the mid-day may have been the most sluggish I've seen to date- slower than the half day before Christmas. I was watching GS, FCX, SPY along with DNDN and BUCY. SPY showed a constant stream of (reluctant) activity but each of the others had pauses in action....no buyers, no sellers...just d-e-a-d. The lack of participation was almost eerie. A new and disturbing game in town. Trade the first hour or two and then get out. You'll become a caffeine addict trying to stay awake to catch a tradeable move later in the trade day. Short this sucker for now.
With the exodus of retail from equities ("dumb money"), even while I am otherwise very bearish, a strong leg higher following the election along the lines of the article would not surprise me.
With volume being what it is, the last days of the market will be 2 guys standing on the front steps of the Exchange swapping bid/offer tickets. The algos will be shut down to save electricity. Stocks will surge to 30,000 and CNBC will be ordering new hats.
RockyRacoon - you get a +100 for that one, really gave me a good laugh on this miserably boring day.
Thanks for that.
As a puddle forms under Erin Burnet's chair.
Hah! What a vision you create!
Bet she's heavy in S/M...
Take off the mask Leo, your are not fooling anybody with the Sybil act.
Anyone who listens to MHFT is an idiot. This guy, if he has been following his own recommendantions, is broke. He is definitely down at least 40% on his TBT call, on which he's been pounding the table for the better part of a year. My favorite is his January 13, 2010 post "Why the Big Trade of 2010 Will Be a 30 Year Treasury Short (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-big-trade-2010-will-be-30-year-trea...)." He says he is a "worshipper of the TBT" and that "$60 looks like a chip shot for the first half" and that longer term "this ETF could hit $200." This awesome trade would have lost your ass, as the TBT has gone from $50.37 at the time of his post, to $35.48 on June 30th (great call on the "chip shot" to $60!) to $33.14 at present. Fucking dumbass, he clearly doesn't even understand the inherent decay in a long-hold leveraged short ETF.
He also resorts to plagiarism when he has nothing better to do (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here%E2%80%99s-next-hedge-fund-target), which he wrote as if it was his own idea just a couple days after Steve Eisman presented his short thesis on this industry at the Value Investor Conference.
MHFT is a complete waste of space and not fit for Zero Hedge.
That sure was a poorly timed call. I think now is the time for TBT/PST if anyone wants to have a crack. I think the PPT will belt equities up into the election, bond yields are low enough for Bernanke to keep his woody and allow some movement to the upside in the 7s10s30. Plenty of breathing space here, and last QE saw yields rise.
So, if MHFT is not yet broke, now is the time to make this trade in my opinion. BTW, I was hard long 7s10 since April, made good coin. Now, the hat is on backwards....
"inherent decay in a long-hold leveraged"
"inherent decay in a long-hold leveraged"
I look at the long 3X ETFs held for 2009 and they look pretty solid.
I don't see much inherent going on there other than daily compounding. Sequence matters. Persistent trending matters. They work exactly how you would expect.
I have had the exact same experience with those short ETFs. I would appear to have come through reasonably intact with this position, for what it's worth.
But there is a change in the wind and I am at a loss. Trade trend on technicals? Who the hell knows.
+10 MHFT has got alot of nerve spewing this crap with his major miss or whatever the hell you want to call it with TBT.
By the way, MHFT can take his "iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis" and shove it strait up his mad ass.
Should be "off-his-rocker, iconoclastic and out-of-his-fucking-mind analysis." Yeah, that's more like it.
This guy really brings the quality of this site down with awful recommendations that he later denies or conveniently forgets about. I'm also tired of his fantasy lunches at posh CA hotels with people who aren't worth a damn even if it were all real.
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