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My Lunch With the CIA
Lunch with the Central Intelligence Agency is always interesting, although five gorillas built like brick shithouses staring at me intently didn’t help my digestion.
Obama’s pick of Leon Panetta as the agency’s new director was controversial because he didn’t come from an intelligence background- upsetting the career spooks at Langley to no end. But the President thought a resume that included 16 years as the Democratic congressman from Monterey, California, and stints as Clinton’s Chief of Staff and OMB Director, was good enough. So when Panetta passed through town on his way home to heavenly Carmel Valley for the holidays, I thought I’d pull a few strings in Washington to catch a private briefing.
The long term outlook for supplies of food, natural resources, and energy is becoming so severe that the CIA is now viewing it as a national security threat. Some one third of emerging market urban populations are poor, or about 1.5 billion souls, and when they get hungry, angry, and politically or religiously inspired, Americans have to worry. This will be music to the ears of the hedge funds that have been stampeding into food, commodities, and energy since March. It is also welcome news to George Soros, who has quietly bought up enough agricultural land in Argentina to create his own medium sized country.
Panetta then went on to say that the current monstrous levels of borrowing by the Federal government abroad is also a security issue, especially if foreigners decide to turn the spigot off and put us on a crash diet. I was flabbergasted, not because this is true, but that it is finally understood at the top levels of the administration and is of interest to the intelligence agencies. Toss another hunk of red meat to my legions of carnivorous traders in the TBT, the leveraged ETF that profits from falling Treasury bond prices!
Job one is to defeat Al Qaida, and the agency has had success in taking out several terrorist leaders in the tribal areas of Pakistan with satellite directed predator drones. The CIA could well win the war in Afghanistan covertly, as they did the last war there in the eighties, with their stinger missiles supplied to the Taliban for use against the Russians. The next goal is to prevent Al Qaida from retreating to other failed states like Yemen and Somalia. The Agency is also basking in the glow of its discovery of a second uranium processing plant in Iran, sparking international outrage, and finally bringing Europeans to our side with sanctions against Iran.
Cyber warfare is a huge new battlefront. Some 100 countries now have this capability, and they have stolen over $50 billion worth of intellectual property from the US in the past year. As much as I tried to pin Panetta down on who the culprits were, he wouldn’t name names, but indirectly hinted that the main hacker-in-chief was China. This comes on the heels of General Wesley Clark’s admission that the Chinese cleaned out the web connected mainframes at both the Pentagon and the State Department in 2007. The Bush administration kept the greatest security breach in US history secret to duck a hit in the opinion polls.
I thought Panetta was incredibly frank, telling me as much as he could without those gorillas having to kill me afterwards. I have long been envious of the massive budget that the CIA deploys to research the same global markets that I have for most of my life, believed to amount to $70 billion, but even those figures are top secret. If I could only manage their pension fund with their information with a 2%/20% deal! I might even skip the management fee and go for just the bonus. The possibilities boggle the mind!
Panetta’s final piece of advice: don’t even think about making a cell phone call in Pakistan. I immediately deleted the high risk numbers from my cell phone address book.
I have been pounding the table with these guys for four decades to focus more on the resource issue, but they only seemed interested in missiles, planes, tanks, subs, and satellites. What a long strange trip it’s been. Better take another look at the Market Vectors agricultural ETF (DBA), their agribusiness ETF (MOO), as well as my favorite ag stocks, Monsanto (MON), Mosaic (MOS), Potash (POT), and Agrium (AGU). Accidents are about to happen in their favor.
For more iconoclastic and out of consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com. And don’t forget the secret knock before entering!
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In fairness he does admit to being mad.
+1. This is the same guy that said he met with general petraeus in a post on july 14 on his site. Even if he did meet with him, he had nothing of substance to say in that post but more or less did it just to assure his readers that he is important and has the inside track. I used to read this guy until I found out he's full of shit (loves telling you about his good calls, but interesting enough has never made a bad one...). ZH it might be a good idea to get this crap off your site.
Don't pull him till next week. He's sitting down with Elvis and Amelia Earhart.
+100
That's exactly what went through my mind as I was reading this.
+1. Making 101.
What's up with the 5-star rating. Who they hell is gobbling up this garbage?
Oh Dear. You mean... We agree on something, for a change?
Heck, I know. I hope my jests were never too sharp. This site would get old if we all agreed, no?
another premature Armageddon-monger chit-chatting with a head snake
It's not quite so sinister. No mouthpiece needed. Panetta is an f-bomb dropping regular Joe who has been a pleasant surprise to the Intelligence Community, especially after the last few DCIA disappointments. Hayden was a military type, which is anathema to the cowboy types at CIA who survive by questioning everything and having contempt for authority.
Panetta is bright, focused and aggressive. Expect a more competent and relevant agency to emerge from his tenure.
it takes 10 calories
of hydro carbon energy
to produce and move to market...
ever 1 calorie of food we eat ...
Yup. For example I have 2 hens in the backyard that eat vegetable peelings and lay sometimes two eggs a day.
I get good compost from the pen, too.
This project didn't even require life style sacrifices, just the willingness to collect vegetable peelings instead of running them down the disposal. It can be done easily. People just have to get their heads out of their asses.
Next: Hammering out cement to get back to the dirt. But I own a jackhammer...
cougar
yup, go long garden.
"The CIA could well win the war in Afghanistan covertly, as they did
the last war there in the eighties, with their stinger missiles supplied
to the Taliban for use against the Russians. "
In an interesting article loaded with dry humor, this struck me
as particularly funny. Who's side are they on? The Opium Trade?
"Who's side are they on? The Opium Trade?"
Yes! Or more accurately both sides. Or even better, as many sides as they feel will further their goals.
Drugs and the CIA is a major third rail in Washington, DC. Don't touch it if you wish to remain in DC. Or more accurately, if you wish to remain.......
a lot of that heroin, goes to russia, and iran. how long, until china, has an addiction problem?
If you want to know the game read up on the Opium Wars and Boxer Rebellion. Turns out that China had a MASSIVE trade surplus and was taking all the worlds silver until the Brits started smuggling in opium and that wiped them out. So after really dicking them over before I wonder what the West will do this time to get ride of that trade imbalance?
+100 and the more the overground economy crashes, the more the underground economy becomes the game. Now what percentage of the world opium does that country supply and what happened to the opium production after we invaded....?
There was a headline in the Onion shortly after the inauguration, something along the lines of:
"CIA Awkwardly Briefs Obama on Creation of Crack Cocaine"
shit, that's funny
http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/cia_awkwardly_debriefs
Marla, given the nature of your first premium content post, matched with the childhood stories you shared recently about Bill Colby, I'd love to hear your take on this.
Ha ha, funny. (gulp) Of course, it's just satire, right? (gulp, gulp) I mean, the CIA doesn't do that kind of stuff, right? God, I think I'm going to be sick.
I once tried to show a friend some information on the CIA and drug running. After explaining to her what I was giving her, she refused to take it from me. Outright would not take it from my hand nor pick it up when I placed it on the table. She acted like it had the Ebola virus on it.
I gently asked her why she wouldn't even look at it. After some hemming and hawing, she admitted that it was very possibly true. She then said the most remarkable thing to me.
"I could never live in a world like that so it must not be true."
Shaping the minds of America, one citizen at a time. Since she didn't want it to be true, it must not be true.
Amazing.
This reminds me of one of the most psychologically unique areas of criminal law that I prosecuted - child molestation within the family. Most of the rules go out the door. Although the family is the victim, it has an incredibly hard time coming to grips with reality. As a result, it not only believes but then assists the perpetrator, working to block any efforts to prosecute the true criminal and doing everything to attack the credibilty of the young accuser, further damaging the raped child.
I am gratefull for having practiced criminal law for a significant period of time because it was like having a living history book, teaching me that human beings, in a position of power, have an unlimited potential to do absolutely horrendous things to other human beings.
that's a very profound statement DJ. you may have found the core of everything that's being discussed on this website.
Glad you're on the front lines here, DJ. What an appropriate avatar, considering your profession.
Good post.
I would also say that oil is what we ultimately eat. Without the energy and chemical by-products obtained from oil, modern agriculture, with its historically fantastic crop yields that have contributed to the recent parabolic growth in global population , would cease to exist. So far, no wind turbine or solar panel will plow a field, kill the weeds, harvest a crop, and transport the food to market like petroleum does.
As goes oil, so too goes Agriculture.
Although I do believe John Deere is developing a combine for Ed Begly Jr. that runs solely on the power of his inflated sense of self righteousness.
That's it?
"The long term outlook for supplies of food, natural resources, and energy is becoming so severe that the CIA is now viewing it as a national security threat."
If you're being told this now, they've been involved for at least 10 years. The CIA doesn't disclose breaking news publicly.
"Panetta then went on to say that the current monstrous levels of borrowing by the Federal government abroad is also a security issue, especially if foreigners decide to turn the spigot off and put us on a crash diet."
This means anyone (foreign or domestic) who isn't willing to continue (or start) purchasing USA government debit is an enemy of the state. This is a warning, not a statement.
"I thought Panetta was incredibly frank, telling me as much as he could without those gorillas having to kill me afterwards."
Sir, I don't know who your connections are or why the CIA would be talking to you (no insult intended in the least for I like to read your missives) but you're being used as a mouthpiece. The CIA doesn't talk to the public unless it's for psychological warfare purposes, often to move the public's perception in one direction or another. But I do appreciate your article. It's always nice to hear fresh CIA propaganda straight from the mouth of the beast.
Ah CD, I love your posts. You took the words right out of my mouth. "Now viewing it?" We all know that energy / national security thing goes back a number of decades. The only difference now I suppose is that our strategies have backfired so badly, that the security crisis has merely ballooned. That said, I have to admit that the current administration has taken the handoff and continued to make us believe that "terrorism" is still the number one concern. And it is...for the countries we're invading. Also think the debt threat is two-fold, to both warn us and prepare us for a wild ride.......
"....current administration has taken the handoff and continued to make us believe that "terrorism" is still the number one concern."
There must always be the unknown and unseen boogie man lurking in the minds of the American public. How else are you going to justify to a nation with 25% of the world's GDP spending 50% of the world's military budget?
Putting aside all notions of the morality of empire building or maintenance for the moment, people simply will not agree to this amount of expenditure unless they can be convinced it's needed. The only way to do so is to narrow their perception of reality through fear mongering.
Well, if we must, I guess it's OK.
It's Orwell's World ... in 3D
"you're being used as a mouthpiece. The CIA doesn't talk to the public unless it's for psychological warfare purposes"
Yes! Obviously, come on, the guy writes a newsletter...now, I gotta go & un-tap my phones.....
I caught your humor.
Unfortunately it's not obvious to many people. You would be surprised how many people still believe the CIA is used strictly for foreign intelligence gathering and that if you've doing nothing wrong, "they" have no reason to mess with you. Ah, to be young (or old) and naive (or stupid).
BTW, forget the phone. Take a look at your computer (of course) cell phone (some models can be accessed even when they're turned off) TV (newer models contain wireless communication to talk to other wireless devices as well as data streaming) and refrigerator. Yes, I said refrigerator. The newest high end models contain computers, flat screens (with TV) cameras and wireless communication.
It's not paranoia if they really are out to get you. :>))
Guess I'm old, naive and stupid. That's better than paranoid, however. No medication required.
Really, sometimes I wonder why we bother; the average American is such a clown, raised on mindless TV and cheap pulp novels. Do you also believe in wizards and mutant superheroes?
"Really, sometimes I wonder why we bother....."
So that is you Panetta?
I used to have dinner with someone who was in counterintelligence after WWII. He told me repeatedly: 'Don't mess with the Fed. You have no idea who you're dealing with'. And that was before computers an cell phones.
It's not quite so sinister. No mouthpiece needed. Panetta is an f-bomb dropping regular Joe who has been a pleasant surprise to the Intelligence Community, especially after the last few DCIA disappointments. Hayden was a military type, which is anathema to the cowboy types at CIA who survive by questioning everything and having contempt for authority.
Panetta is bright, focused and aggressive. Expect a better Agency to emerge from his tenure.
Panetta, is that you? :>)
Please describe what you mean by a "better" agency.
Panetta: "Improving the effective rate of bloodshed is job #1!"
There is little point in describing anything, as most people have already made up their minds about what the Agency does. Tell a lie often enough, as you know, and it becomes truth.
The reality of the Agency might surprise you, might disappoint you, or might make you happy. I have a sneaking suspicion, however, that you are a believer in myths, so you will continue to believe whatever fits your world view.
Hey, your guyses favorite word is 'actionable'. So why don't you give us some actionable info. I mean, that would be killer. Otherwise, don't post.
Your answer is down right disingenuous. Blaming me for you not answering the question is a classic. My so called ignorance and rigid world view, my inability to recognize "truth" or expand my understanding, makes me unworthy or incapable of learning the truth. So you won't tell me the truth.
Brilliant!
Impressive access, thanks for sharing although this won't be news to Soros I think he has the inside track.
I saw an interesting video today that stated cash for clunkers was a Chinese idea and that they wanted steel scrap for further debt purchases.
There is also a rumor that the Sheiks require a portion of gold for their oil.
It would appear other countries are requiring assets instead of just paper. We are the world's bread basket and IP capital, so we could always export that to countries that will be challenged for food or intellectual property. Remember Clinton providing missile technology to China (IP)?
With the right plant genes (Monsanto GMO) and HAARP activity, wars will not be necessary in a world of total weather and therefore food control where you control the supply of food. You could therefore starve out a population or add nanotechnology to the food to do some interesting things.
Yesterdays puff piece on the future outlook of the markets/economy might indicate that the MHFT could be compromised - I am not sure if we should use double think like with Goldman Sachs.
Did LP state his opinions on ZeroHedge, I am sure it is making waves (perhaps even to the point of destabilizing markets) and might garner a bit more attention than MHFT.com. The piece that Project Mayhem just wrote on a hit team would garner attention from the bad PR. I hope you told him exposing corruption will help stabilize the markets in the long term as the only way to build confidence is to ensure transparency and structural stability?
Would like his thoughts on carbon credit trading exchanges and our ability to dominate that as well as his perspective on the inflation/deflation argument as one of the most significant elements of the rise and fall of empires are economic (and they would therefore be very involved). That is why former CIA heads have run exchanges.
"The CIA could well win the war in Afghanistan covertly, as they did the last war there in the eighties". Yes, let's do that again! We'll just fund and train the Taliban to defeat the bumbling superpower that's propping up a puppet government and... wait a minute, what's different this time?
I used to wonder why America's enemies aren't supplying the Taliban with surface to air missiles. We would be in dire straits if that were the case. But then I realized, why would they do that, when they can just watch us bleed ourselves dry for years to come? The Taliban's ragtag army is tying up tens of thousands of US troops and billions of dollars in their strategically located country.
Agreed.
We are the Russians in Afghanistan now, and we won't win anything. These politicial idiots will leave us in there while we bleed ourselves white. Meanwhile, the terrorists are in dozens of other countries from Africa to South America, laughing at us.
As I've argued here before, I don't think it's an apt analogy. The Soviets would have steamrolled the Afghanis if it weren't for massive funding and arming from the world's only other superpower. While the Taliban may now receive some support from other state actors, primarily Pakistan, that's not the same thing. There is no country on earth presently capable of sending the funds that would be analogous to what the U.S. provided to the mujahadeen. Those that might come close are all, to one degree or another, allies of the U.S. that would not sacrifice such a huge chunk of their economy to torpedo an ally. Don't get me wrong -- I'm sure Russia and China would be glad to see us fail there. But absent a scenario like the Cold War, there's no reason for them to expend massive amounts of resources to see it through.
The Russian approach in Afghanistan was the same as in Chechnya: massive scorched-earth attacks, reduce cities to rubble, kill anything that moves. Whether that ultimately succeeds or just creates an implacable, patient core of resistence is still being tested in Chechnya. American citizens would never be able to stomach this kind of tactic regardless of the stakes, and frankly I hope this never changes. Even if it means we will never "defeat terrorism" which it wouldn't accomplish anyway.
Well, chips in guided missiles follow Moore's law. The chip inside Sony's PS3 game console is a supercomputer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSJtqGmDI3c
This is the reason asymmetric warfare favors those who can handle the terrain and have human intelligence networks, those cannot be replicated and the high-tech systems can be neutralized at low cost. Case in point: Hezbollah vs Israel in Southern Lebanon.
It seems like your assuming the outcome would have been good for Russia without CIA intervention..hell they still might be bogged down if we hadnt of given the afghans stingers...we sped up the inevitable,we didnt change the outcome.
High Oil, especially from the mid-east, would jam relations with Europe based on their energy demand. ..though, given the current weather here in Europe, distribution could well be a bit spannered anyway