This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
My Vote
If you give money to candidates the amount and beneficiary are made
public. If you look me up you would see that I have contributed to
Democratic candidates on a regular basis for a long time. Not this year.
As a long time Dem, it is hard for me to describe my disappointment.
There is very little that I can look to over the past two years and say,
“They got this one right”. So this year I am going to vote with my feet. I think people like me are key to this election.
I live in Westchester county NY. This is the 19th Congressional
District. There is a lot on the ballot this year including a local plan
to raise taxes and create a “reserve fund.” I will most certainly be
voting against the latter. I have come to learn that “rainy day funds” get spent at the first sign of clouds.
The NY story is not so important. This is a Blue state and even with the
lousy governance the Empire State will remain blue. But I think the
Wednesday morning look will show that NY has gone decidedly in the
direction of purple.
For Governor we have Andrew Cuomo versus Carl Paladino. Cuomo will win
handily. Paladino is an upstate Pol who has no credentials to be
Governor. He has threatened news reporters with violence and made a
number of blunders. He said NY’s junior Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, “is Schumer’s “little girl”. That went over big. Carl’s only contributions so far has been is his slogan, “I’m mad too”.
Well I am mad and I am voting for Carl. Andrew Cuomo will be NY’s next
governor, but the mandate he thinks he will get will fall much shorter
than is expected.
Chuck Schumer and Gillibrand will be returned to the Senate. Chuck is an
ass but he is so connected that he can’t be beat. Gillibrand is running
against a no-name and will coat tail herself to another term in the
Senate. I'm voting for the opposition. The hell with the "ins".
My vote will likely decide the Congressional race where I live. The
incumbent, John Hall, was voted in (thanks in small part to me) in 2006
when the anti Bush sentiment was racing. He was re-elected in 2008. He
is a former rock star that is somewhat famous for his song, “Still the One”.
John has done an okay job as a junior congressman. He voted 98% of the
time with whatever Nancy Pelosi told him to. He also did a good job
helping veterans get the benefits that they deserve from the government.
He is running against Nan Hayworth. She is an eye doctor and has no
political experience. I will be a crossover voter for Ms. Hayworth. I
believe she is going to win. The polls disagree.
As you can see this is a tight race with a slight bias to Hall as a
result of his 52/43 advantage in Westchester County. Well I can tell you
that many of my neighbors are Mad too and I don’t think that
Hall will carry Westchester with the majority suggested. As a result Mr.
Hall will lose his seat. This district was considered “safe” for the
Democrats not so long ago. I think the loss by the Dems in NY’s19th is a
bell weather for how many congressional races will go. There will be a
surprising number of safe seats in the House that are going away to
other candidates.
At this point it is not surprise that Congress is going to go to the
Republicans. The NY congressional races are not going to swing the
outcome. It will just add to the majority that the Republicans will hold
after this election. I do think that folks like me who are predictable
Democrats that will vote against the party is going to be a very big
national phenomenon. Much bigger than is now being contemplated. While
the Senate may not fall to the Republicans, it is going to be much
closer than is now assumed.
So I am forecasting a blowout. There will be such a significant, I’m mad too outcome that I believe it could shake the tree and cause some leaves to fall.
This election is in large part about the economy. The will of the people
will be overwhelming evident that big changes are required. Some
probable outcomes:
-Obama care is dead. The entire legislation will be ripped apart.
-There will be no new significant stimulus measures voted on in the next twelve months.
-Tim Geithner will be replaced as Treasury Secretary. (A woman will be appointed as the replacement)
-The recommendations of the Fiscal Commission (due out 12/3) will have a greater chance of implementation.
-Social Security (the biggest expense) will be changed. Taxes will be
increased, benefits cut and the age for benefits will be raised. This
will happen in 2011. The cutbacks will be greater as a result of this
election. The social consequences could be very significant.
-The fate of the Bush tax cuts will be altered. This issue must be
addressed prior to 12/31 or taxes just go up. The “Voted Out”
legislators will still be the ones casting ballots on this critical
issue, but the public mindset will not be ignored. There are three
significant tax issues on the table. Tax breaks on those earning under
$250k and separately breaks for the over $250k set. This has been
decided long ago. The above will get hit, the below will get the tax
break extended. Nothing new.
But the wild card that will come on the table is AMT. If the exemption
is allowed to expire it will hit nearly every American family making
$100k. An estimated 20mm households will pay more as a result. If the
Dems were to hold congress AMT would be patched and rolled over for a
few more years. If the Dems lose the House but hold the Senate there
will be enough sentiment to patch over the problem a bit longer. But if
the Senate falls or the House is a biblical rout for the Dems (my
thinking) then AMT could become law for 2011.
-Fiscal conservatism will become a respected concept. Right or wrong
this will be the result if the pendulum of sentiment turns as violently
as anticipated. The likes of Paul Krugman (who having been calling for a
few trillion in additional deficit spending) will have been quieted.
-The election will mean an end to bailouts. Treasury recently sneaked by
a $35b bailout of the National Credit Union Association. That will not
happen again. The concept of TBTF will be tested. The safety net will
have been taken away by the election. The area of most concern to me is a
few of the Mortgage Insurers. Some have been beaten to the ground.
Foreclosure gate is another problem for these players. The MI companies
owe a boatload to the banks but they owe bazillions to Fannie Freddie
and FHA. A collapse of any MI company could start a chain reaction.
-The stock market likes a split government. The idea that, “Nothing will happen in D.C.”
has been market friendly in the past. To a significant extent this has
been priced in with the big run up in the past six weeks. At some point
the market will look at the future and say, “Where’s the growth?”
Without deficit spending/stimulus coupled with the higher taxes soon
to come the outlook for the economy has to be taken down a notch or two.
The prospect of long-term growth at sub 2% is not built into the
market.
-The dollar might benefit for a bit should the headline read: America Goes Conservative.
The exact opposite mentality exists in the FX market today, so the
election could be seen as a welcome change in direction. But a frozen
government that is faced with critical issues does not support the
dollar. At the end of the day this is about “Store of Wealth”. A broken government does little for sentiment.
-Bonds will be interesting. The slower GDP outlook that will follow the
election is supportive of the bond outlook. But bonds are not trading on
fundamentals any longer. They are trading on QE. Bernanke wants to buy a
few trillion, so prices are all geared around this.
Bernanke does not give a rat’s ass about the election. The Fed is
independent and pays no heed to what the people are saying they want for
the direction of our country. A dozen or so folks make these choices
with absolutely no consideration for popular sentiment. This election
might change that.
If the vote goes the way that I think it will the unlimited power of Ben
Bernanke will be checked. It will be done in the pages of our
newspapers from Wednesday on. But the real changes will take place on
January 11 when the new “ins” start to stretch their muscles. There is
something fundamentally wrong with a country that will send a very clear
message of conservatism and a Federal Reserve that is out of control
and printing $100b of phony money every month. Bernanke is going to be
called on the carpet to defend what he is doing with QE. It will happen
in Q1. Bernanke and his risky plans are in for a slap in the face. It
will tie his hands. The results of this are potentially very unfriendly
to the bond market.
»
- advertisements -
ugg boots london I saw something shocking uggs london on my way to work the other day. uggs new york While bundled in a long sleeved shirt, wool sweater and coat, with a Pashmina, hat and gloves,ugg boots london sale I saw a man with his bike a the bus stop in SANDALS. He wasn’t overly well dressed for cold weather, in jeans, t-shirt and open jacket. Now, having lived in Oregon for the past decade I have come to be aware of what “true Oregonians” consider winter attire. ugg boots london shop This primarily consists of the inbred belief that flip-flops are a necessity year round, and sweaters and umbrellas are for tourists. I do not uphold this belief.ugg boots sale london I love getting dressed up for winter, layering on leggings with my sweater dress and ugg boots new york, a sweater and a jacket, and a rotating army of scarves, hats and gloves.ugg boots london stockists I don’t enjoy being frozen, especially knowing how easy a situation that is to avoid. uggs new york sale So personally, buy ugg boots london I do not consider myself a “true Oregonian.” I like umbrellas, and only wear flip flops when it’s above 75 degrees.Based on the population of Oregon, ugg new york I’m probably in the minority. Although I have come to accept that these people are just immune to cold in a way I am not, uggs new york of sale I do still think they are crazy. I’m guessing that the good folks at UGG Australia caught wind of these people because look at what they have to offer: sandals with fleece!uggs new york on sale
I agree with you wholeheartedly. I can't help but scoff at the fools who say that people aren't "qualified" or "experienced" enough to hold a particular office.
I would gladly vote for the shift manager at my local gas station, the dude who helps empty garbage cans at our county transfer station, the chick who waited on my yesterday, HELL,, ANYBODY WHO CAN BALANCE A FREAKING CHECKBOOK AND LIVE ON A BUDGET.
Out of all the comments made, I do not recall seeing even one comment on getting the military situation (wars) off the table. Why is it our "WARS, which of course including the one on "terror", "drugs" are not mentioned. Only a Trillion $$ a year. A pittance I guess. Milestones
m, of Course you're right. Foolishly, I keep thinking that we might get some of the economy thing right. We have never gotten the war thing right.
Bruce, good for you and the many who are honest responsible people out here and there, who have to do what you will do. I am in the mold of many who were rabid lefties until I woke up and saw the world as it is. We stepped out of the Matrix. Oh I know there are those who say I stepped into another worse one....REALLY. I have a number of thoughts.
Ford took no bail outs.
Those that were responsible with their lives are bouncing back. Those who are dead beats stay that way. Those who keep finding out, less the blinders and rosey glasses and conspiracies etc, stay mired in a mess 90% of their own making. Stay disciplined, awake and active, innovative, and in the game like your life depended on it and life is good.
On your thoughts, I can debate you...the Commission is a hoax. We need a totally different tax policy, widening the tax base and changing the incentives to growth and investing. Drop the tax code over time, the income tax, and go for a flat tax; phase out and end the bzn. tax mess. Personal taxes broadened and flattened.
Dearest Leader has to be removed in 2012. PERIOD! His ideology is antiquated.
Curtail the FED immensely. We still need it, unfortunately. Make it a bastion of non-Keynesians!
Bruce, Stick to the markets and leave politics alone... Your reasoning is flawed in so many places that I don't have the time and the room to deal with them.
I used to be a Dem also but switched to Libertarian (I did that about 6 months after O got elected, I voted for him. The things that were important to me were getting the Constitution out of the trash basket and scotch taping it back together. Little things were important to me like habeus corpus. I wanted to see the rule of law restored. His comments about not wanting to look back were alarming because he was saying even if laws were broken, he was not even interested in invesstigating, contrary to his oath of office. It also became clear early that he was carrying water for Wall Street. I had no choice.) ...
So you're voting Dems out and voting for Repubs, like that will make a difference... As has been said in many posts on ZH, THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO... You're voting back in the party that was in power that got this whole thing started... We need change. The way to get that started is to VOTE OUT ALL OF THE INCUMBENTS... You know... those that voted for TARP even though their constituents were against it by 600/1...
Social Security Will NOT be changed... Even the dumbest pol knows that it is the "3rd rail" of politics, and with the boomers being a very large voting bloc, they will flame broil any pol who acturally goes down this road... It's one thing to rail against SS during a campaign, but it's different once you get elected.
Where was that concept when the Repubs enacted the Bush tax cuts for the top 1%. In case you missed that one, they were'nt paid for and significantly added to the deficit.
Go back and look at the TARP votes. What do you think is going to happen when BAC or Buffetts bank, Wells Fargo, goes to the hill with a tin cup looking for help because of the Fauxclosure putbacks.
Like I said, stick to the market analysis.
I vote for gold and silver instead of liar politicians.
Bruce, you are right on the money, this will be a blowout of historic proportions. I was reading an article about a recent election in left of leftwing Toronto, Canada where a Canuck version of a Tea Partier was elected mayor in a landslide that the pollsters had deemed a neck and neck race. Could that be a bellweather for what is going to happen tomorrow?
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/Examiner-Opinion-Zone/Ho...
Also:
What's your view on the toner cartridges?
What's your view on 2012?
Chuck Schumer should be arrested for treason. The mortage mess partly his fault.
You know what make me mad
Fiscal Commission
Why can't these J-brones who are all too happy to take their cushy pay, cushy donor contributions and cushy retirements actually do what we elect them to do - MAKE A F**KING DECISION ABOUT HOW TO SPEND MONEY RESPONSIBLY!?!?!?! I believe Congress has not sent up a budget yet - because they didn't want to vote on anything before the election. If it is not, it should be criminal but just another example of the political class checking out our purdy mouths.
I typically vote R (but never once voted for Arlen Specter), but they fail the ability to do anything beyond pure symbolism just as much.
I don't know if the Tea Party has been co-opted by the political class yet, but at least some of the discussion coming from their group shows they understand voter angst and the root cause.
I think I'm finally beginning to understand all the wailing in sad Mexican mariachi songs.
I like the picture at the end; most true thing I've seen in a while.
I'll believe your predictions when I see them. We're already seeing Republican leadership saying things like "We won't have enough votes to override a veto," with the implied message being, "We're not even going to try to de-fund Obamacare much less repeal it." You have also seen multiple cases where Republican leadership has backed away from supporting so called "nut case" Tea Party candidates because they would rather take the loss of a seat rather than lose control of the caucus. The Dems are no better with moves like that in FL to dump Meeks for Crist. And we always have the ever-present question of what the lame duck session will give us. Remember that for two months the Dems will be able to ram through the kitchen sink, and you recently heard Big O himself talking on the Daily Show about how anachronistic and undemocratic the filibuster rule in the Senate is, meaning that something is definitely afoot there.
And even if conservatives and republicans (not the party, rather people who actually believe in restoring the republic) were to win the next three elections and the White House, you still have a majority of self-interested federal employees staffing countless agencies and writings tens of thousands of regulations that will enact the Progresssive agenda regardless of election outcome (to with, Cap-n-Trade and all of its baggage is essentially on its way via EPA fiat). And let's not even start on the judiciary, which gives us fine examples every day like you can't require a voter to prove his citizenship while at the same time little is done to stop buses full of mexicans from crossing the border to vote in AZ.
So, my friend, thank you for voting, but your vote and my vote really don't really count because we don't vote correctly, and so we are still doomed indeed.
I'm in CT's 4th Congressional District. The Democrat incumbent is a former Goldman Sachs VP and his Republican opponent is a flaming asshole.
So I registered myself as a write-in candidate, just to have someone to vote for whom I don't despise.
Given that most major party candidates don't deserve our votes, why don't more voters do this? Write-in registration didn't cost anything beyond postage.
Agreed that Schumer is an ass. I'll never forget his jocular, dismissive demeanor, as I observed it from the Senate chambers during the proceedings that left Clinton impeached but not removed from office. There was a heck of an ice storm that day, so I was able to walk right in and stay for much longer than normal. Watched Senators coming and going as they worked out the deal that left Slick Willie in the White House.
Let's not ever forget Chuckie wanting to raise the mortgage caps for the now bankrupt FRE & FNM by 10% to include mortgage limits as high as 625k under the Protecting Access to Safe Mortgages Act.
The man is a fucking menace to society.
I would not be surprised at all if a Republican House started impeachment proceedings against Obama.
Having lived within my means, saved and put a down payment on the house, and otherwise not profiting at all from the behavior which gave rise to this mess, I'll nevertheless be happy to contribute, but only once those responsible are held accountable.
Mr. Obama's big mistake...Not splitting each nationalized bank into a good bank and bad bank, firing existing top management (hmmm...accountability...imagine that), and creating an RTC.
Yes there are lots of other things that went wrong (and some that are right, like universal health care), but imposing accountability on those responsible is a necessary ingredient towards getting this behind us.
In Ct. Dodd will finally, after all the damage is done, be replaced. He'll be replaced by the current Democrat AG, Blumenthal, voted worst AG in the nation in 2001 -- or, Republican Linda McMahon of WWF fame. She's attended Democrat conventions and contributed to Lieberman campain when he ran as an independent after losing the Democrat primary. She's also contributed to Rahm Emanuel's campaign. Makes no difference which one wins, except if Blumey winds, Lieberman will have a partner to worship with on Saturdays.
"Social Security (the biggest expense) will be changed. Taxes will be increased, benefits cut and the age for benefits will be raised. This will happen in 2011. The cutbacks will be greater as a result of this election. The social consequences could be very significant.
Bruce,this will not happen, I agree w/ the rest of your article,but SS changes, in age, and amounts, will DOOM the entire flock that votes it thru.
There are FAR too many Federal Agencies, and GIVEAWAY progs, that can be done away with, and cut to the bone, or elimiated, without touching the SS system.(except for giving younger folks some options).
It should be changed for folks aged 35 and under, and some NEW options given.
Changing the age,from current regs,and payouts on 50yr old Ups, from current figures will be hell to pay,most have lost their jobs, and will NEVER find another for over $10.00 an hour.
If they take away the Mortgage Deduction, and 501C3 deducts,along with the SS changes, expect a war.A financial Armageddon will take place.If they do both, I will sell my home, and move to the country,and if must be, expat.......Fk them.
Given the new energy taxes coming, and if they cut the Bush taxes( Stick a fork in it).
Most small business, @$250k, are just breaking even, this should be raised to $500k.
If it's allowed, the folks will say screw it, fold their tents and go home.And the few jobs that go with them now.
Raise it, and we see unemployment go down.
I voted early. Voted straight party Libertarian. The only Federal office I could vote for was my local house rep and I doubt it will go Libertarian. The state level office holders are not going to be defeated. My vote was my hope to up the numbers in the Libertarian party. Will not make a difference now, but can at least send a message.
Me too. I'm voting against everyone who is in now. EVERYONE.
Republicans will cut the budget by 100bb next year - they will attempt some type of fiscal sanity- liberal economist will freak and tell everyone the world will end - nothing terrible will happen -people will realize that when the government mult is less than 1, additional borrowing to consume (note I say consume and not invest) is insane. Stocks will initially rally but fall then begin to fall back towards 10000 on the dow. The Fed will attempt more QE but it will not work. Stocks fall further and unemployment rate goes higher. BOA and other fnancials begin to get crushed as a few of the large hedge fund longs gets stopped out and realize that they will no longer be bailed out. Housing prices fall another 15-20%. Ten year treasuries rally to 1.75%. Everyone thinks we are Japan but we really are not. Market bottoms early 2012.
If by "cut the budget 100bb" you mean: "cut taxes to borrow $2 trillion more", then I guess you have a point.
But how anyone on this blog could suggest that borrowing trillions is "fiscal sanity", I don't know.
Fiscal conservatism will become a respected concept. Right or wrong this will be the result if the pendulum of sentiment turns as violently as anticipated.
It's ridiculous that this is still apparently a controversial issue. Is there really a robust argument still standing for drunken-sailorism?
Vote for anyone other than a Democrat or Republican, and if either of these is your only choice, vote for a new face. Get rid of career politicans and their scams.
Vote for someone who supports the fair tax!!!!!
Isn't it funny how package bombs and terror alerts get wound up again just before an election? The Democrats are desperate.
You forgot one as well. The Main Stream Media (LAMESTREAM MEDIA). They just wailed and whimpered and cried and often yelled and carried on during the last part of the Bush administration when employment went from 4.4-4.8%, and the deficit went up 20%. You heard them cry about the amounts of bailouts were not enough.
NOW with Republicans controling congress, the MSM will wake up and start trashin ghe economic news in the exact opposite that they have done for the past two years, spinning it to positive and "better than expected". The MSM will throw a fit and start reporting exonomic collapse and blame the new GOP in power. This will split the banker-MSM kumby ya sining that has occurred over the last two years.
The media will start reflecting the true nature of the economic conditions and the "revisions" of these bogus made up numbers will now be exposed.
Strange bedfellows indeed!
Although I appreciate all the support, I have refrained from running (except maybe for the border).
In all seriousness, I will be voting against all national incumbents. Why, maybe I am a romantic at heart. More than likely, just a fool with a little hope left.
I would vote only under 1 condition, that I vote for 'Nobody' I mean leave the seat empty ! (btw. I dont live in the USA)
Disagree, disagree disagree with almost everything:
-Obama care is dead. The entire legislation will be ripped apart.
last i checekd, the POTUS has a veto power, and GOP has no chance getting 60 votes in the Senate that are necessary to move things. And BTW, i don't think the "industry" will opposes obamacare either (other than for show.) And why would they? The law brings 30-40 million of new customers. Not just any customers, but customers whose payment is guaranteed by the Government!
-There will be no new significant stimulus measures voted on in the next twelve months.
Two words: The Fed. A few more words: not accountable to anyone but their biggest clients/owners/beneficiaries
-Tim Geithner will be replaced as Treasury Secretary. (A woman will be appointed as the replacement)
maybe. but who gives a you-know-what? Rubin, Summers, Snow, Paulson, Geithner - broken record.
-Social Security (the biggest expense) will be changed. Taxes will be increased, benefits cut and the age for benefits will be raised. This will happen in 2011. The cutbacks will be greater as a result of this election. The social consequences could be very significant.
But GOP does not want cutbacks! They want PRIVATIZATION! Right, privatize and invest in AAA rated CDOs :) If GOP seriously tries that again, they will get crushed in 2012 again. 3rd rail is "live", it can kill anyone.
-The fate of the Bush tax cuts will be altered.
Correction: temporary tax cuts,provisioned to expire in 2012. I have a feeling they will be let to expire, and when folks get smaller paychecks in january, they will be reminded about their vote.
-Fiscal conservatism will become a respected concept.
Bull-s**t. A frecking moron ex-jarhead contractor making over $200k "in support of the mission" in the sand-box? that's his salary, imagine how much his company ges to keep? And they have sat tv, internet, cell phone, gym, etc etc. probably cost at least half-million bucks to keep 1 contractor stationed (i can't force myself to say "working") there. This will never be cut. The military-industrial complex will prosper.
And so will pharma lobby, agri-busineess lobby,a nd bank lobby.
-The election will mean an end to bailouts.
May I ask why? While bailouts started with Chrysler unded Carter, they really took off under Bush/paulson, and continued with Obama. Why would they end? Becasue T-party told you so? Do you think the millions coming to them from financial-lobbying machine are "bad investment?"
+1
A lot of idealistic wishing against the harsh reality that this is the same party that now feels stupid for going to such great lengths to disappear 8 Billion in cash when there was trillions to be had. Geithner? He was on McCain's "must appoint" list as well as Obamas. How do you think such a turd made in there?.
He is safe. He is part and parcel of the scam. Bernanke is safe. The win may indeed happen for the GOP , then again, it may not. They were uniformly voted out in 2006 for the same shit. Does anyone think seriously they have reformed?
I say is gets far more equal now that the Dems have proven they can't govern , so why let anyone govern if all they are going to do is make things worse. But the notion that the presence of the GOP is going to make any substantive changes in policy is laughable. They just have different preferences for industrial sectors. That's their main split with the dems, but it really comes down to who pays better. In that sense loyalties can shift real fast.
Look at the bankers. They gave heavily to the GOP. Why would they do that when the Dems gave them more than they ever dreamed possible? Well The GOP made some promises to them and the thieves have tender hides. They wanted more respect for robbing the country blind. So the promises along with being called "fatcats" were enough to pour money into the GOP coffers. Does anyone think the promises included, we are going to get tougher on bankers? Hell no , not when the implosion heard round the world was blamed on poor people buying more than they could afford and bankers being forced to make those loans. The most ridiculous narrative passed around by the bankers and their apologists, but it was simple and simple really works in America especially when many of the buyers had different skin color. One thing the GOP has the Dems don't, the gift of the 2 second soundbite and the followers that will applaud it.
Yet The Gays, God and Guns thing is to the GOP followers as Single Payer health care is to to the left. Shit that is promised but never delivered.
It divides and it helps their puppet masters conquer with increasing ease and with far more wealth being poured into their hands. This is when it gets worse. Worse? How could it be worse? Watch and see.
all too true Db
The real culprit is the "laffer curve". Tax cuts pay for themselves. The next is redefining inflation.
The Laffer Curve is a thing of beauty. It is the best an economist can do. Undeniably true in concept, positively useless in practice. It is like tofu without the nutritional value, in that it can be whatever one needs it to be. What is its real shape, does the shape change with time, and where are we on it? Nobody has a clue, but nobody can deny that somewhere, somehow such a curve exists.
You are correct.
Otherwise it would have been called "The Laffer Straight Line".
I'm sorry, but there's no other way to say this: Anyone who believes this is being stupid.
"Fiscal conservatism" is nothing but a new name for the same, old Two Santa Claus, Supply-Side RepubliKeynesianism that has governed the country for 30 years. This supposed effort at "fiscal conservatism" will come to nothing but extending the Bush tax cuts for all brackets, which is the only real, political purpose of any of this Tea Party stuff - unless the Tea Party grows up and gets real, which is highly unlikely.
The Republicans will raise the debt ceiling $2 trillion in their first Congress - done deal, a mortal lock, I'm taking the over and if you disagree then you can be a weasel and junk anonymously or be a man and take the under.
@ Bruce: You've probably misread the impact on Treasuries. Once TBTF bailouts and additional stimulus are taken off the table, the steady flow of scared money seeking a refuge in the one indisbutable liability of the Federal government will turn into a deluge.
If Bernanke has his way the direction that "scared" money takes may not be as predictable as you think. One would rush to safety to a 10 year at 2%? Not safe. That is a guaranteed loser.
"-Tim Geithner will be replaced as Treasury Secretary. (A woman will be appointed as the replacement)"
Is it wrong the first thing that popped into my mind was Jamie Dimon in drag?
I hope you're right, Bruce. And in any case props for the full plate of precise predictions.
I live in the land of the fruits and nutz (CA) and I voted to oust any sitting member of either congress and my state legislator. No D's or R's for me, it was straight Libertarian. F them all.
Bruce - I always appreciate your postings. I don't agree with you on SS but some window dressing will occur there - nothing substantial however.
I agree with some of your other speculations and certainly the fact that there are many people like yourself that are indicative of a major shift. The implications of this shift and the effect on the economy for the next two years will eventually result in a one-term presidency for Obama.
I agree with most of what you say, Bruce, but I think you are underestimating the pace of change. Finance is out of control on a global basis. Two years from now, I think the AMT will be the least of your concerns.
Hope I'm wrong;)
we CAN have a third party. it's so easy. the people just need to vote for those candidates.
the media and the Ds and Rs want you to THINK we cannot have a third party and your vote will be wasted.
i say your vote is only wasted if you use it for a Democrap or a Republitard.
Never understood why we need any parties. Where in the Constitution does it say that political parties are a requirement? Why not just "Joe Jones, Candidate for Senator", sort of like class elections in high school. No affiliation, no set platform, just Joe's individual views. Just a dream, but wouldn't it be nice.
5 star *****
The vote for Nobody is important. Yes, why not vote them all out?
The unassailable pols are the gravest symptoms of deep and dire corruption. Case in point, Senator Schumer. This is not to question Schumer's ethical conduct. It is to say that power corrupts. Schumer is intoxicated with his own power and therefore practices the luxury of myopia. He can do what he wants and what he does not see does not bother him. At this point, even if he is acting in other's best interests, we have to ask, who are these others? He has become the prey of powerful special interests.
The wealthy are targeted as those who earn more than $250M a year. Well, good luck comparing a $250M salary and quality of life in Texas where there is no state income tax versus New York, where home prices are higher, fees for doing anything are higher, and State and Local taxes are out of control.
What are those special interests that we refer to with Senator Schumer? One example which again contrasts New York with Texas would be 2nd Amendment Rights. New York has created a large welfare state, centered around NYC. In such a Nanny state, individual rights are constrained and the State's power augmented. NYC adapted many controls as a ring fence around masses of immigrants in order to maintain law and order. In this case, law and order essentially now means, keep the plebians occupied so they do not burn, loot and riot. Think gangs of New York. Yes, no one on the Upper East Side wants to see rioters or be mugged on the way down to Wall Street ... But those living on the Upper East Side are certainly making more than $250M ... And along with the extra cash comes the tax dodges and lawyers to facilitate their silent kleptocracy.
NYC under Democratic monopoly has created a vast underclass that is politically beholden to the Democratic Party. Shills like Charlie Rangel are a prime example of the corruption that occurs in a more mundane sense. The Head of the Ways and Means Committee, which overseas taxation, could not get his taxes right? Yet Rangel's constituency easily reelected him.
So if you are lucky enough to be strolling in downtown Manhattan, you might happen to see Mayor Michael Bloomberg, 3rd term autocrat and billionaire, but you will have to look hard because he will be literally surrounded by several enormous body guards in suits along with a sizeable contingent of NYPD undercover and in uniform. Hey guys, what do you have in those really heavy looking gym bags? Some heavy duty weapons perhaps? Almost as good as being a defense contractor in Iraq.
Don't even think of applying for a carry permit in NYC. Your leaders are fine, so you don't need one. The NYPD is looking out for you, trust them. Just pay your taxes and get promoted at your TBTF employer so that you too can hire the lawyers and your taxes will not nearly matter so much ... and you can summer in the Hamptons while the suffering masses have been bought off to withstand the heat uptown.
+1000. I'm voting Libertarian.
Bruce, you're all over the map. What spending will be cut by Tea Partiers? Military, SS or Medicare? Those are the big three "spending" buckets. I'm looking at what they say they will do (aside from Angle, who refuses to even tell us) and it doesn't add up at all. Do you want your taxes to pay for unlimited war on drugs and Islam while grandma gets her lifeline cut? Then go ahead and vote Republican, because that is exactly what they intend to do.
I'm done voting for either of the two parties. The people I most often agree with are Libertarians, so that's where my vote is going regardless of their chance of success (none). IMHO, people who vote for the "lesser of two evils" when the two evils are just two sides of the same evil coin are THE problem.
So will little timmay be replaced by Tyson? Amazed that you didn't see this coming long, long ago Bruce. In a system of corruption such as we have long lived under (Farcism) those who eck out a living on the spoils of playing finance should most certainly be triple aware of what the oligarchs are up to.
Bruce seems to have fallen victim to the 'candy' that what was once named 'Liberalism' offers. The new name is 'progressive' and you can know it by its stench.
'Liberalism' was that which offered a bite of the apple Bruce. It is unlikely that a second chance will be available.Not on any foreseeable timeline.