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My Vote
If you give money to candidates the amount and beneficiary are made
public. If you look me up you would see that I have contributed to
Democratic candidates on a regular basis for a long time. Not this year.
As a long time Dem, it is hard for me to describe my disappointment.
There is very little that I can look to over the past two years and say,
“They got this one right”. So this year I am going to vote with my feet. I think people like me are key to this election.
I live in Westchester county NY. This is the 19th Congressional
District. There is a lot on the ballot this year including a local plan
to raise taxes and create a “reserve fund.” I will most certainly be
voting against the latter. I have come to learn that “rainy day funds” get spent at the first sign of clouds.
The NY story is not so important. This is a Blue state and even with the
lousy governance the Empire State will remain blue. But I think the
Wednesday morning look will show that NY has gone decidedly in the
direction of purple.
For Governor we have Andrew Cuomo versus Carl Paladino. Cuomo will win
handily. Paladino is an upstate Pol who has no credentials to be
Governor. He has threatened news reporters with violence and made a
number of blunders. He said NY’s junior Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, “is Schumer’s “little girl”. That went over big. Carl’s only contributions so far has been is his slogan, “I’m mad too”.
Well I am mad and I am voting for Carl. Andrew Cuomo will be NY’s next
governor, but the mandate he thinks he will get will fall much shorter
than is expected.
Chuck Schumer and Gillibrand will be returned to the Senate. Chuck is an
ass but he is so connected that he can’t be beat. Gillibrand is running
against a no-name and will coat tail herself to another term in the
Senate. I'm voting for the opposition. The hell with the "ins".
My vote will likely decide the Congressional race where I live. The
incumbent, John Hall, was voted in (thanks in small part to me) in 2006
when the anti Bush sentiment was racing. He was re-elected in 2008. He
is a former rock star that is somewhat famous for his song, “Still the One”.
John has done an okay job as a junior congressman. He voted 98% of the
time with whatever Nancy Pelosi told him to. He also did a good job
helping veterans get the benefits that they deserve from the government.
He is running against Nan Hayworth. She is an eye doctor and has no
political experience. I will be a crossover voter for Ms. Hayworth. I
believe she is going to win. The polls disagree.
As you can see this is a tight race with a slight bias to Hall as a
result of his 52/43 advantage in Westchester County. Well I can tell you
that many of my neighbors are Mad too and I don’t think that
Hall will carry Westchester with the majority suggested. As a result Mr.
Hall will lose his seat. This district was considered “safe” for the
Democrats not so long ago. I think the loss by the Dems in NY’s19th is a
bell weather for how many congressional races will go. There will be a
surprising number of safe seats in the House that are going away to
other candidates.
At this point it is not surprise that Congress is going to go to the
Republicans. The NY congressional races are not going to swing the
outcome. It will just add to the majority that the Republicans will hold
after this election. I do think that folks like me who are predictable
Democrats that will vote against the party is going to be a very big
national phenomenon. Much bigger than is now being contemplated. While
the Senate may not fall to the Republicans, it is going to be much
closer than is now assumed.
So I am forecasting a blowout. There will be such a significant, I’m mad too outcome that I believe it could shake the tree and cause some leaves to fall.
This election is in large part about the economy. The will of the people
will be overwhelming evident that big changes are required. Some
probable outcomes:
-Obama care is dead. The entire legislation will be ripped apart.
-There will be no new significant stimulus measures voted on in the next twelve months.
-Tim Geithner will be replaced as Treasury Secretary. (A woman will be appointed as the replacement)
-The recommendations of the Fiscal Commission (due out 12/3) will have a greater chance of implementation.
-Social Security (the biggest expense) will be changed. Taxes will be
increased, benefits cut and the age for benefits will be raised. This
will happen in 2011. The cutbacks will be greater as a result of this
election. The social consequences could be very significant.
-The fate of the Bush tax cuts will be altered. This issue must be
addressed prior to 12/31 or taxes just go up. The “Voted Out”
legislators will still be the ones casting ballots on this critical
issue, but the public mindset will not be ignored. There are three
significant tax issues on the table. Tax breaks on those earning under
$250k and separately breaks for the over $250k set. This has been
decided long ago. The above will get hit, the below will get the tax
break extended. Nothing new.
But the wild card that will come on the table is AMT. If the exemption
is allowed to expire it will hit nearly every American family making
$100k. An estimated 20mm households will pay more as a result. If the
Dems were to hold congress AMT would be patched and rolled over for a
few more years. If the Dems lose the House but hold the Senate there
will be enough sentiment to patch over the problem a bit longer. But if
the Senate falls or the House is a biblical rout for the Dems (my
thinking) then AMT could become law for 2011.
-Fiscal conservatism will become a respected concept. Right or wrong
this will be the result if the pendulum of sentiment turns as violently
as anticipated. The likes of Paul Krugman (who having been calling for a
few trillion in additional deficit spending) will have been quieted.
-The election will mean an end to bailouts. Treasury recently sneaked by
a $35b bailout of the National Credit Union Association. That will not
happen again. The concept of TBTF will be tested. The safety net will
have been taken away by the election. The area of most concern to me is a
few of the Mortgage Insurers. Some have been beaten to the ground.
Foreclosure gate is another problem for these players. The MI companies
owe a boatload to the banks but they owe bazillions to Fannie Freddie
and FHA. A collapse of any MI company could start a chain reaction.
-The stock market likes a split government. The idea that, “Nothing will happen in D.C.”
has been market friendly in the past. To a significant extent this has
been priced in with the big run up in the past six weeks. At some point
the market will look at the future and say, “Where’s the growth?”
Without deficit spending/stimulus coupled with the higher taxes soon
to come the outlook for the economy has to be taken down a notch or two.
The prospect of long-term growth at sub 2% is not built into the
market.
-The dollar might benefit for a bit should the headline read: America Goes Conservative.
The exact opposite mentality exists in the FX market today, so the
election could be seen as a welcome change in direction. But a frozen
government that is faced with critical issues does not support the
dollar. At the end of the day this is about “Store of Wealth”. A broken government does little for sentiment.
-Bonds will be interesting. The slower GDP outlook that will follow the
election is supportive of the bond outlook. But bonds are not trading on
fundamentals any longer. They are trading on QE. Bernanke wants to buy a
few trillion, so prices are all geared around this.
Bernanke does not give a rat’s ass about the election. The Fed is
independent and pays no heed to what the people are saying they want for
the direction of our country. A dozen or so folks make these choices
with absolutely no consideration for popular sentiment. This election
might change that.
If the vote goes the way that I think it will the unlimited power of Ben
Bernanke will be checked. It will be done in the pages of our
newspapers from Wednesday on. But the real changes will take place on
January 11 when the new “ins” start to stretch their muscles. There is
something fundamentally wrong with a country that will send a very clear
message of conservatism and a Federal Reserve that is out of control
and printing $100b of phony money every month. Bernanke is going to be
called on the carpet to defend what he is doing with QE. It will happen
in Q1. Bernanke and his risky plans are in for a slap in the face. It
will tie his hands. The results of this are potentially very unfriendly
to the bond market.
»
- advertisements -
I'm voting non-incumbent. It hurt's me to say that.
I have no problem saying that.
These incumbents are uniformly the most incompetent bunch of legislators, judges, municipal boards, school boards, mayors, city council members, and state officers that I have ever seen.
I would rather elect a high school student body officer as the mayor. At least the high school student approaches the problem without having mobbed up donor base, prior organized crime hits, and union membership.
"The greatest problem we face is the very fact that government officials have no clue what they are doing and they certainly won't make even an effort to comprehend anything because it does not benefit their immediate career. There are so many misconceptions on which they act that we are in a hopeless vortex of economic decline" - Martin Armstron from the article, "Show Me the Money".
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm
Bruce, you should have at least mentioned your great US New York candidate Jimmy, Jimmy McMillan, of the 'Rent is Too Damn High' party -
His hilarious, stunning performance at the NY candidates' debate, well over 4 million views of this in just a few days, because, indeed The Rent Is Too Damn High:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4o-TeMHys0
A vote for "The rent is too damned high" is gonna be a vote for "Their taxes are too damned low". How else is he going to cut everybodies rent in half? Who owns the real estate that is going to bring in 50% less in revenue? Come on people, THINK!
well lucky, the privately owned federal reserve bank is about to print $1 trillion to buy bonds with, and what is the point of that? that is $3,300 per person !!! they would be better of simply giving each man, woman, child, the $3,300.
My vote would be to not print the money to begin with and to AUDIT THE FED. Any elected official voting AGAINST auditing the fed will never get my vote again. If we the people were smart enough we could outline a goal and vote in those who promise to vote for the goal and vote out anyone that goes against. We could get it done if we didn't have attention spans of toddlers.
It will be interesting to see, in a Repub Congress, if Ron paul can gain any traction re FED and gold audits. Or will he be mysteriously "suicided"?
I think "suicided," 'cuz both parties are trying to cover their asses on this one. Anyone who asks too many questions is going to get the cold shoulder at the very least and the Obama line that "Well it's happened and now we need to focus on fixing the problems instead of determining the causes. Nothing to see here. Move along." Complete and total gridlock ahead folks. Our frustration level is going to go up to an all new high.
well, someone with a lot of loot should buy commercials on dancing with the stars and monday night football to inform everyone that the federal reserve bank is not a government agency, but is a privately owned institution, existing for the purpose of its member banks. unfortunately, most people have been brainwashed and have no clue. we need some serious de-programming.
Well.. It was on my mind. My thought was that it was an over the top anti vote. So cross over not silly. Jimmy will get 5%+....
@bank guy
thanks for the link. jimmy is hilarious. but when you look beneath the surface, maybe he desrves a seat at the table. this is from wiki:
Regarding his use of black gloves during the debate, "I’m a war vet," McMillan said. "Don’t forget I was in Vietnam for two and half years and I have three Bronze Stars, but the chemicals of Agent Orange -- dioxin and a lot of other chemicals mixed up -- I would get sick. When I get home tonight, I know I’m not going to be able to breathe if I take them off. It could be psychological, I don’t know, but I just put em on and wear them anyway."
Disagree with you about SS in 2011. The Republican base is white and 50+ and I haven’t meet one Tea Partier that wants to change the benefit structure of SS-there is no political will here. There might be a try at reform in 1212 if a Republican becomes president because of the political cover.
2011 will be spent mostly on reversing Obama healthcare and editing the Financial Reform bill to favor the financial industry.
And no, the economy won’t get better...we are heading the way of Europe and Japan!
Interesting article from Matt Taibbi on Tea Partier's attitude towards Medicare - namely no way in hell are they going to give it up:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/17390/210904
One exception I take with the Taibbi article is that all Tea Partiers are lumped into one group (which I find in almost all MSM articles and sometimes even on this site). There is no attempt to differentiate what the original Tea Party goals were aka Karl Denniger (http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=170044) versus what the co-opted Tea Party is purported to represent.
You seem to imply that the white, 50+ are not prepared to make some sacrifice for their future and more importantly the future of the next generation. You are mistaken.
the only sacrifice that must be made to save America for future generations, is to get rid of thousands of douche bags that control this corrupt system
if you think reducing a retirement fund is going to make the US solvent, than drink up some more of that statist Kool-Aid
Bottom line: the people that worked and saved for 45 years in the private sector are going to get a stick in the neck anyway; they don't need any asshats like you cheering on the process
They are making plenty of sacrifices. I know plenty of boomers who have taken out home equity loans to pay for college for their kids. I have retirees in my neighborhood that put their SS checks into a savings account that their kids will inherit. But I have not meet one boomer who feels like he/she is not entitled to the SS they have put into the system. They all want fiscal saving to come from somewhere else-military cuts, no illegal immigration benefits, etc. And they are adamantly opposed to any tax increase of any kind.
John has done an okay job as a junior congressman. He voted 98% of the time with whatever Nancy Pelosi told him to
Craziest thing ever written.
Vote Libertarian and/or Constitution party, fuck the D and R wings of the Statist party.
absolutley correct. most of the time (r) = (d) with minor exceptions.
regarding cong. john hall, i live in the ny-19 also. well, i think he is a total loser. what a disappointment. he can't think for himself. he is running riduculous negative ads against his opponent trying to paint her as a dangerous extremist. pathetic. mister hall's biggest mistakes: 1. supported bama health 2. voted against audit the fed. 3. supported bailouts. 4. did nothing to stop the warmongers.
according to nate silver, who is one of the best, hall is down by 3 points:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/new-york/19
They're all one and the same party, just put on different colored jerseys for the public scrums.
And here's what one of 'em thinks of his populace.... Form a speech yesterday....
"Good afternoon, everybody. I want to briefly update the American people on a credible terrorist threat against our country, and the actions that we're taking with our friends and our partners to respond to it."
Good afternoon, everybody.
Not my fellow Americans, countrymen, good families and free man.... everybody.
Kinda impersonal. Detached. Not one of, but apart from.
"..want to briefly update the American people on a credible..."
Briefly. Must not be important. Make it brief, Get the fuck outta here. Don't waste my time. Brief. Way too casual....
American people
Not my fellow citizens, compatriots, friends, countrymen. Them, they, those American people. Again, way the fuck detached.... My subjects. Minions. Ubermenchen
Credible
Fucking hope so, else you could be campaigning or golfing, so must be.
terrorist threat
Why are there terrorists any more, we thoght you'd stated that they didn't exist, there's no war on terrorism. I'm confused.... but that is the point, isn't it. Ha! Caught that one!
friends and our partners
No allies, just beer buddies and some sleep over folk. What the hell, can't have any allies anymore; gave the Churchill bust back to the Brits and gave their queen an iPod. OK, just some casual acquaintances.
And these folks wonder why many good middle class hard working tax paying certified real citizenry of America, after being called terrorists, Islamophobic, racist, mean-spirited and accused of clinging to guns and bibles think that there's something fucking wrong with what's going on these days.,
"gave the Churchill bust back to the Brits and gave their queen an iPod."
Well it did contain a couple of his speeches as a "very special bonus"...when the new Websters dictionary comes out perhaps they can include his photo under narcissist.
"And these folks wonder why many good middle class hard working tax paying certified real citizenry of America, after being called terrorists, Islamophobic, racist, mean-spirited and accused of clinging to guns and bibles think that there's something fucking wrong with what's going on these days."
Word.
But progress is being made...the socialists did have to drop the "teabagger" meme after the gay & lesbian alliance threw a tantrum over the perceived association...maybe donations were going down...pretty sure there's a double entendre in there somewhere ;-)
"There is a lot on the ballot this year including a local plan to raise taxes and create a “reserve fund.” I will most certainly be voting against the latter. I have come to learn that “rainy day funds” get spent at the first sign of clouds."
I have never understood the notion that taxes must be raised when no one has shown any evidence that cutting spending has accomplished all that can be done in the area under consideration.
Deficits and running up debt in government is a function of spending too much.
There will never be a situation where government, of it's own volition says, you know what...we had a surplus in tax revenue last year...we're sending the surplus back.
It will never happen...bank on it ;-)
I distinctly recall Jesse Ventura returning Minnesota's rainy day fund to the taxpayers. I think that was part of the platform he ran on and he honored that commitment on his election. He wasn't my choice as Governor, though over time I grew quite fond of him, if only for the entertainment value. At first, however, I was mortified. It was the eqivalent of electing an actor as President for goodness sake. His relationship with the press was a disaster, his wife, wisely I think, refused to act as our first lady and really was neither suitable or presentable for that role. She seemed very nice, but was obviously uncomfortable. His son damaged the governor's mansion in some way that I don't recall was every made clear. Minnesota has a tendency, when we are displeased with our politicians, of electing someone highly unsuitable. Jesse wasn't our first.
Good point, I had forgot about Jesse.
Perhaps I should have said career politicians & statists for clarity.
I'm of the opinion we should have more plumbers, carpenters, electricians...and yes even pro wrestlers in government.
They are more in touch with us.
I hate that I'm going to say this because it's antithetical to my views...but maybe term limits as well, to keep the corrosive nature of power at bay.
I have long held the view that we have elections, which is term limits. But clearly this is not working.
Rightie-O
We don't need a Federal Deficit Commission, we need a Federal Spending Commission.
Them "elected" "representatives" being tone deaf, ought to look up the definitions of them words; "elected" and "representative".
For what it is worth, I, too, am a democrat, living in NY and voting for Carl. He's a nut but, for the same reasons you stated, I am voting only republican this year: senators, governor and my local representative. It is a shame to have to vote against someone rather than for someone, but as Howard Beale aptly said "I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore!".
Yer' wrong yipcarl. It's the people, stupid!
It takes time to buy a politician. Lobbyists work for years co-opting them, little by little. The system never intended for career politicians. That's the People's fault, not the system.
Run them in and run them out! It screws the whole seniority/committee chairmanship thing up. The Economist has a good article this month on how earmarks amounts increase with seniority. Read it.
Dispicable dweebs are groomed for service from the very start, at the beginning of the process on the local level.
I say we draft congress, screw the lobbies and the set ups. Shit we draft kids to die for what the ptb want to do, lets draft up some REAL people to run our country, one term, twice what ever you make in the real world.
Voters support seniority. Voters cling to their elected seniors as they can bring them more benefits.
Let's see, if we reellect none, then we get a whole new bastion of losers. its the system stupid, not who's in office.
My bumper sticker reads:
RE-ELECT---None of them!
How's that for the bi-partisan bullshit we all admire so much?
There is no difference... 1 is the other... and the other 1 is like the 1st one...
George Carlin ~ The American Dream
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acLW1vFO-2Q
I voted to Kick out whoever is in there...
80 % of them take bribes from Wall Street Banks...
http://www.opensecrets.org/
All of them take monies... ALL!
on average... Congressman makes $400k a year... from the Tax Payers... and then collects $4m from special interests...
So, 10 X's what the Tax Payer compensates them with... is what we are all fighting...
End the Lobby, End the top heavy, money / bribe / lobby dollars.
I'm sure I knew the answer to this question at some point in the past, but it's gone the way of alot of stuff I used to know, so: What happens to unspent campaign funds when the candidate finally retires?
He keeps it and spends it as he sees fit.
That's why if a little green man came down from Mars, he'd view all campaign contributions as bribes and all acceptances of such as extortion.
QED