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NAHB Builder Confidence Plunges To September 2010 Levels

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And another index drops to levels last seen just as QE2 was unwinding. Per the NAHB: "After holding at a low but steady level for the past six months, builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes declined three points in June to a reading of 13 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The last time the index was this low was in September of 2010. "Builders are being squeezed by the continuing weakness in existing-home prices – against which they must compete -- as well as rising material costs," said NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev. "In addition to the ongoing impacts of distressed property sales on home prices, appraisal values and consumer confidence, rising costs for materials such as roofing, copper, wallboard, vinyl siding and other components have made it extremely difficult to construct a new home and sell it at a price that covers the costs....Builder confidence has waned even further as economic growth has stalled, foreclosures have continued to hit the market and the cost of building a home has risen," agreed NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "Meanwhile, potential new-home buyers are being constrained by difficulty selling their existing homes, stringent lending requirements, and general uncertainty about the economy. Economic growth must pick up in order for housing to gain the momentum it needs to get back on track." Yet fear not: Wall Street's econometric lemmings say the economy will surge in the second half on more hope and change. It is unclear what besides hope and change will cause this miraculous surge, although Operation Twist 2, which now seems guaranteed, appears to be the best guess.

 

 

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Wed, 06/15/2011 - 10:36 | 1370910 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

But...wasn't a recovery in housing one of Wein's top 10 surprises?

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 10:41 | 1370917 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I'm a bit concerned that we're gonna use up all our bad news today.  Can we save some of this for the rest of the week?

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:23 | 1371110 Poundsand
Poundsand's picture

Don't worry, there is plenty to go around.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 10:42 | 1370920 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

That's like saying: I was already depressed, now my confidence is even lower because I expect to be more depressed. Start a national Prozac distribution now! (And raise the debt ceiling for it if you have to)

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 10:44 | 1370932 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Here's an idea: Stop fucking building new houses in a market that is already flooded with an 18 month supply! There needs to be a minimum 3 year moratorium on all new construction in zipcodes that have dropped more than 20% from peak.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 10:59 | 1370979 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

So you are advocating a one size fit all fix for this?

Edit: Who is going to put this into effect? The government? The all mighty oracles of central governing who are either too bureaucraticlly tied down or completely incompetent?

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 10:58 | 1370994 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I think the assumption is that all the empty houses from last year are so overrun with mold that they are unsafe to live in.  Bullish for builders and demolition crews.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 10:56 | 1371005 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

I actually thought about when I eventually build my own house, I think I might pay to bulldoze some houses and structures in detroit (or elsewhere) for useable parts.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:24 | 1371111 Republi-Ken
Republi-Ken's picture

Here is a PRACTICAL reaction "to the market" solution.

But REPUBLICANS will vote NO, the free market rules!

And that same RELIGIOUS IDEOLOGY (Conservative stupidity)

has destroyed the dollar and maxed out the U.S.A. credit card.

GREED Rules America. 

CONSERVATIVE IDEOLOGY Rules America.

 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 10:41 | 1370937 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Miami ,orlando ,Naples, oversupply.....Fort Laud. more oversupply...

 

SRS will rocket: Hugo Peterssen

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 10:52 | 1370969 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I've been toying with the idea of moving to Key West. No oversupply there unfortunately. But the rest of South Fla...absolutely. (I live here)

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:08 | 1371050 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

I'm in Texas, but the idea of KW intrigues me. What it cost to get a beach shack out that way?

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:17 | 1371071 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

you could find modest 2-3 bedroom waterfront homes for rent for around $2000-$2500 per month (on the low end). That's not "beachfront" but it is waterfront in that you can keep a boat outside and will have easy access to open ocean. And that's not exactly inside Key West...but it's maybe one key out (about 12-17 miles).

In Key West you can find 2-3 bedroom apartments for rent starting at around $1250.

If you trade for a living (for yourself) and do not need to find a "job"...it's a great place to live...if you like a laid back sort of island lifestyle...which I do.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 10:44 | 1370948 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

In other words the NHAB has switched strategies from trying to convince everyone that the all clear flag is up, come back into the water to the new strategy "Mr. Bernake, we need more stimulus..fast"! 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:29 | 1371136 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

And more retro-active tax credits. Can't forget those.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 10:57 | 1371010 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

But no matter....DOW 12,000 MUST BE DEFENDED TO THE DEATH!!

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:10 | 1371047 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No worries, some chick on CNBC The Blowhorn just commented she heard somewhere that we just need to start building more houses, faster.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 14:50 | 1372094 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

That would be Math Man whispering into her ear piece that a housing boom in coming in 2012.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:18 | 1371072 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

Builders do not DESERVE to be confident. We have two decades of backlog in the housing market. Barring another Katrina, or a lot of tornados and hurricanes, the building biz is gonna be lackluster for another ten years at least. This should not worry the rest of us.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:15 | 1371078 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I always thought everybody needed at least 2 houses...

 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 22:27 | 1373346 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Seven!  Change them once a day, like your underwear...

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:15 | 1371082 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

So, someone with a brain answer me this riddle. WTF is holding the market up today?

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:26 | 1371108 sheep92
sheep92's picture

Since the public is pretty well sold out and the crash the world community is pretty short maybe there aren't a lot of sellers left....

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:31 | 1371147 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Meanwhile, potential new-home buyers are being constrained by difficulty selling their existing homes, stringent lending requirements, and general uncertainty about the economy.

"Stringent lending requirements". That is a bunch of crap. When us old farts bought our first, home we needed to have 20% down + closing costs, a real job, assets and a good credit rating. This is what these idiots call "stringent". We get what we sow.  Years away from any recovery. You need a cave, but you do not need more than 1.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 15:48 | 1372352 oldman
oldman's picture

Mono:

I completely agree----one cave is enough!

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