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NAHB Builder Confidence Unchanged At 16, Misses Consensus Of 17
No surprise from the NAHB, whose Housing Market Index came at 16, unchanged for a 3rd consecutive month, missing expectations of 17. This is not surprising as the housing double dip is now fimly in place, and the only way to resolve this issue will be for the Fed to validate Bill Gross' MBS purchasing thesis and refresh QE2.5 with a fresh purchasing of MBS. We are confident the headline scanning machines will find some correlation that translates this into a massively bullish number and close stocks at multi-year highs.
Full release:
Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes
held unchanged at a relatively low level of 16 for a third consecutive
month in January, according to the latest National Association of Home
Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.
"As
we emerge from the traditionally slow holiday season, builders continue
to look for signs of improvement in the economy, home buyer demand and
builder and consumer credit conditions," said 2011 NAHB Chairman Bob
Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev. "Unfortunately, a severe lack of
construction financing, and widespread difficulties in obtaining
accurate appraisal values, continue to limit builders' ability to
prepare for anticipated improvements in buyer demand in 2011."
"The
HMI and its subcomponent indexes are holding steady following a
below-expectations finish in 2010," noted NAHB Chief Economist David
Crowe. "At this point, housing remains on the sidelines of a weak
economic recovery as consumers and builders wait for clear and
consistent indications that jobs and economic output are reviving.
Meanwhile, the problems that builders continue to confront in obtaining
production financing, and in maintaining performing lines of credit,
threaten to significantly slow the onset of a housing recovery."
Derived
from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20
years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder
perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations
for the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor." The survey also
asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very
high," "average" or "low to very low." Scores from each component are
then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over
50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
While
the HMI components gauging current sales conditions and sales
expectations for the next six months both held steady from the previous
month, at 16 and 25, respectively, the component gauging traffic of
prospective buyers edged up a single point to 12 in January.
HMI
scores rose by one point in the Midwest and four points in the West in
January, to 14 and 15, respectively. Meanwhile, HMI scores fell two
points in the Northeast and one point in the South, to 20 and 17,
respectively.
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The best sell side "analysis" so far this yr was a recommendation to ignore NFIB Small business optimism -index after the last print earlier in January. Rationale for that was that since it's still in recessionary levels, it cannot possibly be correct and one should look at ISM instead. Cannot wait for similar "analysis" for the housing market. =)
POMO juicing the Dow big time today.
Homebuilders in doldrums yet CAT soars..
Somebody better get somebody who better get somebody on the phn because the 30 year bond is about to get obliterated.
buy the fuking dip, it's delicious.
...cash 4 clunkers, bonuses 4 bankers, bulldozers 4 mcMansions...
creative destruction brought to you by the maestro and the bernank.
From Ran Squawk:
01-18 11:10: Fitch says outlook stable for US Homebuilders in 2011 Carry on, it's all goooooood.We have a homebuilding division in the Mid-Atlantic. Our index is - 7. How many synonyms are there for "sucks"? Stable is right - when you're dead and you're looking for a silver lining you could say things are stable. We see a long slow climb. Not many foreclosures as competition, just mortgages are hard to qualify for, and sellers can't sell so they can't buy.