The CFTC and the SEC are both having lunch with Optiver right now, as all other speculators have been definitively driven out of the market.
No comment on the chart below.
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on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 13:53
#65216
looks like global warming got debunked at 7:30 am and now an ice-age is predicted.
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 14:10
#65219
Looks like hi-freak algo testing with commodities, did someone just open up a front running switch?
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 13:58
#65220
And awwwwaaaaayyyyy we......go!
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 13:58
#65221
14% of natt gas mrkt is producers (long short)
86% is speculators.
rally started last week with someone taking off a large oct/nov spread. massive short covering when it hit $3 and $3.05. roll starts monday.
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 14:06
#65234
any take on how many StDevs we roll back on the 27 oil nat gas ratio (st dev is bout 3), mean 8.8. median 8
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 14:36
#65327
no idea. mostly because they have been trading almost mutually exclusive of one another, such that theprior relationship has almost been nullified (just mho)
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 14:48
#65354
This madness started whent the Fed strated the QE. Benny, atta boy (here are the ETFs, not the same becasue of the roll return and pricing, but...)
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 14:27
#65302
UNG's roll should push the market down. With a $1.00 spread between Oct and Nov, they will need to sell a lot more Oct contracts than they will buy for Nov.
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 14:03
#65229
sure!:
SEC Probing Market Manipulation by ‘Advanced Trading Systems’
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By David Scheer
Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is “rigorously” investigating whether traders are using technology to manipulate markets, the agency’s enforcement and inspections chiefs said today.
The regulator is probing suspected “market manipulation based on complex use of technology and advanced trading systems,” said SEC Enforcement Director Robert Khuzami and acting examinations director John Walsh in testimony prepared for a Senate Banking Committee hearing. They mentioned the inquiry among a list of pending cases, also including unspecified Ponzi schemes, hedge-fund abuses and insider trading.
SEC spokesman Kevin Callahan said he couldn’t immediately comment beyond the testimony.
To contact the reporter on this story: David Scheer in New York at dscheer@bloomberg.net.
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 14:21
#65278
Ever wax nostalgic for open outcry?
So much money and resources poured into exploiting weakness in the electronic trading landscape in the name of untethered greed, yet we can't figure out how to educate 30% of our kids about subjects like basic math.
Our priorities are 180 degrees out of phase with what we need to do to survive as a society.
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 14:22
#65286
aye men to that...
on Fri, 09/18/2009 - 15:49
#73813
Let's look at your reply from the perspective of incentives. Incentives for teaching kids subjects like basic math vs. incentives of exploiting weakness in the trading market. One makes you a lot of money, the other makes you a great teacher. Pick one.
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 14:08
#65241
Fast Forward one year later:
SEC revists Program Trading investigation still open seeking input
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 14:09
#65246
Does EIA report show a big draw down of Nat Gas stockpile?
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 14:22
#65280
WEEEEEEEEEE!!!!! Up 27% since July when I switched brokers, and not 1$ in the US$. This investing stuff is easy! If Canada didn't have some somewhat goofy gun laws, and had better weather, maybe I'd move... hmmmfff.. Maybe Norway.
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 14:25
#65296
Maybe the SEC can get Madoff to advise them on how to regulate this problem. He has some free time, apparently.
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 14:55
#65372
This is hardly rampant upward speculation. After today's 16% rise, the October gas future still has 32% to go just to get back to its early-August price and 30% to go to catch up with the November future.
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 15:10
#65413
What would you call the biggest one day percentage gain in almost 5 years?
Demand destruction continues (see MON) and storage is 20% above 5 year average heading towards full for the first time ever.
So this must be slow value investing, right?
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 15:28
#65451
How low can NGAS go?
Could the price have already factored this high level of inventory?
Seemed like we reached capitulation with record numbers of shorts and the way the price slided into last week.
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 15:30
#65453
How low can natural gas go?
Could the high level of inventory already be priced in, it has been talked about for a while.
It seemed to me we reached capitulation last week with the price slide and the record volume of shorts.
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 15:59
#65483
Bloomberg shows that the spot price actually went down. From my calculation, UNG has approx 0.5B of cash on hand and they've been switching out of swaps into physical contracts. They are propping up the market before their roll.
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 16:13
#65507
gaz dropped a bit below a long term trend lind at 12.00. this was the third touch and every thing happens in three.
the money flow was really low the week about a week before, and the the RSI gve the buy signal last friday. Now I don't
tyler you yourself have mentioned that the olic to nat gas ratio was at a six sigma event.
With how much the markets have moved up this was the onl play bound to make real money esp as heating season gets closer.
I wish I had made my buying and selling a bit bettter, but such is life as I am a novice.
You look for low money flow, then try and get confirmation a bit later by rsi as usually money flow is a bit early on pulling the trigger.
I think natural gas was the best play out there to park some money.
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 20:03
#65723
Been waiting for ENCANA to have a 6% yield........
on Thu, 09/10/2009 - 20:14
#65731
Some people forget that the spot (next day gas) rallied from below 2.000 at Henry to 2.800 in less than a week. This market is supply and demand driven and it rallied way more over a few days.
on Fri, 09/11/2009 - 16:32
#66852
Hmm lets only talk about the rallies and ignore that it sold off almost the whole way back the next day....
100 vol? take em. def a buyer at that level.
on Fri, 09/11/2009 - 16:31
#66854
And since when does Optiver trade nat gas size? riiiigghht... thats a pretty funny comment. Good info.