National Inflation Association: "Silver Short Squeeze Could Be Imminent"

Tyler Durden's picture

A press release from the NIA finally picks up where everyone else has been for about two weeks. It is too bad, that those who brought the story to the foreground are getting exactly zero acknowledgement, but such is the media world.

Full press release from the NIA (keep in mind that the NIA describes itself as "an organization that is dedicated to preparing Americans for hyperinflation."):

Silver Short Squeeze Could Be Imminent

LEE, N.J., April 3 /PRNewswire/ -- The National Inflation Association today issued a silver update to its members:

On December 11th, 2009 NIA declared silver the best investment for the next decade. In our December 11th
article, we said that it wasn't a coincidence that the very day Bear
Stearns failed was the same day silver reached its multi-decade high of
over $21 per ounce. We went on to say,
"The reason why we believe the Federal Reserve was so eager to
orchestrate a bailout of Bear Stearns, is because Bear Stearns was on
the verge of being forced to cover their silver short position."

Morgan took over the concentrated short position in silver from Bear
Stearns and gained complete control over the paper price of silver
Within weeks, JP Morgan was able to manipulate the price of silver down
to below $9 per ounce. NIA believes they
were able to drive the price of silver down through "naked short
selling," selling paper silver that is unbacked by physical silver.

On February 5th, we witnessed another sharp decline in silver prices, which NIA described on February 7th
as being "just a temporary wash out, before a huge surge in silver
prices later in 2010." Since then, silver prices have rebounded by 18%.
The temporary wash out that occurred on February 5th was predicted by independent metals trader Andrew Maguire, who came out this week exposing the fraud that is taking place in the paper silver market.

On February 3rd, Andrew Maguire wrote Eliud Ramirez, a senior investigator for the CFTC's Enforcement Division, giving him the "heads up" for a "manipulative event" signaled for February 5th.
He warned the CFTC that JP Morgan was about to manipulate down the
price of silver after the release of non-farm payroll data on February 5th.
Andrew said that the takedown would happen regardless of if employment
was better or worse than expected and the price of silver would be
flushed to below $15 per ounce. During the next couple of days, silver was crushed from $16.17 per ounce down to a low of $14.62 per ounce.

Despite all of the evidence given by Andrew Maguire
to the CFTC of gold and silver manipulation, Andrew wasn't allowed to
speak at last week's CFTC hearing on limiting gold and silver positions
held by banks like JP Morgan. Bill Murphy of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) was allowed to speak (within a five-minute time constraint) and present some of Andrew Maguire's
evidence, but right when his presentation began there was a technical
failure of the live television broadcast, which was mysteriously fixed
as soon as he was done speaking. Bill Murphy
was scheduled for several mainstream media television interviews after
the CFTC hearings, but they were all abruptly cancelled at once.

A couple of days after the CFTC meeting, Andrew Maguire and his wife were involved in a bizarre hit-and-run car accident in London
where a second car coming out of a side street struck their vehicle,
which resulted in a police chase using helicopters and patrol cars
before the suspect was nabbed. Andrew and his wife were released from
the hospital with minor injuries. (NIA does not believe in conspiracy
theories but when you consider that this is a potential multi-trillion
dollar fraud that could bring down the world's financial system, it
really makes you think.)

silver market provides a window into what is happening in the gold
market. Because the silver market is very small and its short position
is so concentrated, its price is easier to manipulate than gold, but
the same manipulation is taking place in gold on a much larger but less
noticeable scale. In our opinion, the CFTC is under pressure not to do
anything about the manipulation because the lower gold and silver
prices are, the stronger the U.S. dollar appears to be. If we saw an
explosion to the upside in gold and silver prices, it would result in a
complete loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar.

believes the precious metals markets are currently being artificially
suppressed by paper gold and silver that doesn't physically exist.
last week's CFTC hearings, Jeffrey Christian
of the CPM Group admitted that banks have leveraged their physical
bullion by 100 to 1. This means for every 100 ounces of paper
gold/silver that trade, there could be as little as 1 ounce of physical
gold/silver in the vaults backing it. However, Mr. Christian sees no
problem with this because he says "it has been persistently that way
for decades" and there are "any number of mechanisms allowing for cash

Mr. Christian fails to realize is, most investors around the world
holding paper gold/silver believe they own physical gold/silver. There
will come a time when these investors don't want cash settlements in
U.S. dollars, but they will want the physical precious metals
themselves. When investors around the globe eventually call for
physical delivery of their precious metals, NIA believes it will result
in the biggest short squeeze in the history of all commodities.

physical silver market is now more tight than ever before. In the first
quarter of 2010, the U.S. mint sold 9,023,500 American Silver Eagles,
the most since the coin debuted in 1986 and up from 8,299,000 sold in
the fourth quarter of 2009.
All U.S. silver mines combined are
currently producing only 40 million ounces of silver annually. This
means the U.S. needs to use almost all of its silver production just to
keep up with the demand for American Silver Eagle coins.

Silver closed this week at a 10-week high of $17.89
per ounce and a major short squeeze to the upside could be imminent.
With the spotlight now on JP Morgan, NIA believes they will be less
likely to naked short silver at these levels and manipulate the price
down like in February. With the mainstream media blackout, it is
important for NIA members to work harder than ever to spread the word
and help expose what could be the largest fraud in the history of the


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jbc77's picture

I buy silver and gold coins a few times a year. Fun to collect and I want to leave my 11 year old son a nice little stack of metals when I leave the earth. Been in and out of SLV more times than Elliot Spitzer in a New York whore house....been readin the silver short squeeze is coming theory for years. It's yet to happen. Point is, if indeed the market is being manipulated "they" are so good at it that the squeeze will never happen. They won't let it happen despite whatever fraud is whistle blown.

h4rdware's picture

On a long enough timeline, all fraud is marked zero.

This one is worth waiting for.

Dr. No's picture

I agree.  2-3 years ago the same thing was said about gold futures.  More contracts than comex had in inventory.  Nothing happened.  Go back a few years and read about Bunker Hunt.  He tried taking delivery and they changed the contract requirements and sent him the poor house.  I like Elliot Spizer's approach on this one.

Gordon_Gekko's picture

It is not a very great logic that "since it hasn't happened in the past it won't happen in the future".

sheeple's picture

What I learned in grade school: Anything could go wrong will go wrong (also known as MURPHY'S LAW)

A Texan's picture

I think that it will happen sometime in the next year or two. The catalyst will be a financial panic, possibly originating in the area of muni bonds (many states and municipalities are beyond broke, worse than even Greece).  The panic of something going wrong will cause people to liquidate non-core holdings - including precious metals. 


Yes, I know, that will cause the price to decline. 


However, a certain number of people (and nations) will actually look upon their PMs as "core" holdings, and will ask for delivery of the actual physical metal that their paper holdings show they have.  THAT will be the day when this whole thing implodes - because in the midst of a crisis/panic, the banks (like, specificially, JP Morgan) won't have the spare funds with which to manipulate the PM markets as they do now in relatively calm times (I know, "calm" like in the eye of a hurricane).


As others have said, no fraud goes on forever.  All bluffs get called by the market.  ALL.

Gordon_Gekko's picture

It will happen when various derivatives including futures (for everything) are discredited and vaporized once and for all as we move down along Exter's Pyramid.

Slewburger's picture

+1 for the Exter's pyramid reference.

SWRichmond's picture

+ another 1.  The two pieces of essential knowledge going forward are: (financial) domino theory, and counterparty risk.  Munching some Redenbacher watching Greece try to blow up.  "White" knight arrives in 3...2...1

topshelfstuff's picture

Let me add this here, since I can't find a more direct Thread at the moment. Is everyone forgetting there remains one very important item that has, so far, been Swept Under the Rug, and if allowed to remain there any longer may soon be forgotten...the Driver...what about the Driver? I'll paste below and hope ZH can find out if there is some sort of news block on this

CFTC whistleblower injured in London hit-and-run


6:39p ET Saturday, March 27, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

London metals trader Andrew Maguire, who warned an investigator for the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in advance about a gold and silver market manipulation to be undertaken by traders for JPMorgan Chase in February and whose whistleblowing was publicized by GATA at Thursday's CFTC hearing on metals futures trading --

-- was injured along with his wife the next day when their car was struck by a hit-and-run driver in the London area.

According to GATA's contact with Maguire, board member Adrian Douglas, Maguire and his wife were admitted to a hospital overnight and released today and are expected to recover fully.

Maguire told Douglas by telephone today that his car was struck by a car careening out of a side road. When a pedestrian who witnessed the crash tried to block the other driver's escape, the other driver accelerated at the pedestrian, causing him to jump out of the way to avoid being hit.

The other driver's car then struck two other cars in escaping.

But the other driver was caught by police after a chase in which police helicopters were summoned.

We'll convey more information about the incident as it becomes available.

[[[ Is this where this incident ends? Where is the follow-up? Why is the Identity of the Driver secreted? Shouldn't this "catch" be of utmost importance? Notice that other autos were also damaged. This necessitates a report to their Auto Insurance Companies, including the name, address, and license number of the driver. The pedistrian who tried to stop the hit-and-run car was, """ the other driver accelerated at the pedestrian, causing him to jump out of the way to avoid being hit.""" <<< makes this more than a simple "Hit&Run"

How many charges do we have here [criminal, traffic violations, who is it?] , why have we gotten no Identification of this Driver, and their current status, and where is The NEWS, the Reporters. Had this been some Hollywood "bad-girl" who got a simple Ticket it would have been "In the News" for days, complete with paparazzi photos. Isn't anyone like GATA, Maquire, if not the local police, prosecutor, etc. going to make a televised update.

Gold...Bitches's picture

the other driver accelerated at the pedestrian, causing him to jump out of the way to avoid being hit.

The other driver's car then struck two other cars in escaping.

But the other driver was caught by police after a chase in which police helicopters were summoned.

In the USA this is what some might call a tequila fueled weekend.

Segestan's picture

Good article. There's no other out come possible. Oh , they will try and pretend and naysay the whole affair but Gold -Silver are not like any other .. these are money.. Real money.

EdwardTeach's picture

This was tried before and nothing came of it due to the fact no contract can be forced to pay anything other than FRN's. There is no way to make the squeeze happen, no one wants more FRN's But that;s all they will get PERIOD.

seventree's picture

Or in other words, as long as "cash settlement" is allowed in lieu of delivery, the supply of "silver" is effectively infinite.

h4rdware's picture

The electronics industry is going to have something to say about that, when their supplier tries to convince them of the benefits of FRNs over the usual delivery with a 15% conduction to mass advantage over all other metals.

Price discovery won't require confidence, diligence or understanding. It will happen automatically and it won't be a secret.

Shameful's picture

Oh please!  How can you cling to that barbarous relic?!?!  Everyone knows paper is where it's at!  I'm sure science will quickly generate evidence (funded by the Fed Reserve) that FRNs serve as the greatest conductor for electricity anyone has ever know.  Pfffttt.  Barbarous relic.  Paper Money is king!

/sarcasm off

Al Gorerhythm's picture

Or in other words, the supply of paper silver being effectively infinite................

Got physical????

There is a 100:1 bet on who will get it delivered first. Long (physical) odds.

Gold...Bitches's picture

Or in other words, as long as "cash settlement" is allowed in lieu of delivery, the supply of "silver" is effectively infinite.

Untrue.  As long as people think the piece of paper they have is actually tied to a specific piece of metal it can continue indefinitely.  Once enough people realize the ponzi scheme of fractional reserve gold/silver and take delivery the game is up.  More information keeps seeing the light of day.  It will happen and in a timeframe for me to take full advantage of the gains.

Sam Clemons's picture

Yea, I don't see how you can "squeeze" someone that has the ability to create infinite FRNs.  Once stripped of that ability, it could happen.  Or, once the physical shortage gets so bad there is no way the fraud is not visible to the most blind person.

Gordon_Gekko's picture

What if nobody wants FRN's anymore? 


  You mean like China? The second that idiot said: This has been going on for decades and I'm not worried since there are so many other mechanics such as CASH SETTLEMENTS..... This was an incriminating statement which sets all allegations in concrete... There are naked short positions and Mr. Andrew has stepped forward to make it known, however, there is more important news worthy information that needs to go before the media... eg. Sightings of Elvis walking on the strip of Vegas, Brittany Spears may be pregnant, Sandra Bullock will divorce her husband but my all time favorite is geithner going to China to slap their hand for manipulating the Yuan. The only question left is who will slap Obama's hand for not going live to talk about the greatest scam in U.S. history.... Should the day come that Mr. Andrews whistle blowing on jp morgan is ever broadcasted on government controlled bloomberg news, then, and only then I will have some hope that all those who hold paper contracts of Silver and Gold will demand physical control of their metals and yes of course tell those who want to make cash settlements to shove it up their asses!!!!!!!!!!  The jig is just about up, you can only prop up the dollar and sell what you don't have for (only a season and after that season all who have decieved shall stand before the courts of our land and may the Good Lord have mercy on their souls, the last time I checked, TREASON carries the dealth penalty) As far as FRN'S go, NO ONE WANTS FRN'S and if they do then they deserve exactly what they get!!!!!!! 

Crime of the Century's picture

NIA is a strange outfit to say the least. I have enjoyed some of George's YT videos, but the whole Jon Lebed association, and the Internet "wars" that have sprung up around them keeps me distantly amused. Not a serious organization imo.

pitz's picture

Yeah strangely enough, the Wikipedians (as dumb as they usually are) won't even allow an article about the "National Inflation Association" to be posted on the Wikipedia website.


Lord and Master's picture

While i have not dug down in all the nitty gritty evidence on them, NIA seems extremely fishy/ fraudulent.  Just watch these two videos.   In the first, this guy Jon Lebed comes off like --erm-- a shy, angry (yes shy and angry), devious, uneducated, thuggish?, sociopath... He like gets this devious angry look in his eyes when the Fox host (Cody Willard?) presses him on certain important points... Idk its pretty funny really.  Jon Lebed shouldnt limit himself to two-bit internet scams.  I say he should send in this video and his resume to the USTreasury -- hes got just the right combo of deviousness, sociopathic tendencies, shyness, quickness to anger, and poor communication skills (mostly a result of deep deceit) that  is highly valued in the administration and among Geithner's charges.  Anyway, here are the two videos…


See what I mean about the shy angry look he gets?  Its like dude- chill the F out… you are making a HORRENDOUS impression.  If you are planning on making such a HORRENDOUS impression, just stay home and keep your scamming behind the scenes.   But he wanted the limelight of a mainstream news show, EVEN if he wound up making a ridiculously bad impression.  Though if Timmy was watching that video, he must surely have liked what he saw.  Try also a google search for “”.   When you type the period after the word inflation, google autocompletes with the word “scam” lol.   And yes the George guy, though also a scam artist it would seem, at least has something of a human side, and he puts some heart and decent information into his videos.  Both Jon and George fall short in the IQ department—in terms of higher quality thinking—and you can tell this from their diction, among other things.   Though when it comes to scamming wits, just from long practice they must be top-notch thinkers by now. 


non-anon's picture

In 2003-2004 I finished reading the book "Creature from Jekyl Island", this opened my eyes to the corruption. I bought 212 ounces of silver around $8 spot price from NORFED. I took warehouse receipts for my physical silver stored in their warehouse. Fast forward to 2007, the FED raided "Liberty Dollar" and confiscated all the precious metals in the warehouse, including my physical silver. I wrote to the Fed. Prosecutor that I want my silver back with no reply. Now Van Nathaus and some other Liberty Dollar personnel are being brought up on charges of "counterfeiting". NORFED and Liberty Dollar had been in business since 1998 and the FED decided to bring charges in 2007. The court case has been in continuance since then with no end in sight. Keep your physical metals in a safe place, not in a bank deposit box, not anywhere where you can't get to it fast and no one else can.

It was chilling when Mr. Christian defined "physical metal" as also including paper. They can twist meanings to whatever they want, when they want without us being the wiser!

Hulk's picture

Great story, reinforces my strongly held possession beliefs. Good luck in recovery,good that it wasn't a large position

glenlloyd's picture

The manipulation will continue to work until it doesn't.

As for Mr. Christian, no one wants settlement in worthless dollars.

Pladizow's picture

I agree with most of what the NIA has to say.

However, I am some what skeptical of their intentions - especially when it comes to their stock recomendations.

I think their founders include:

1. Jon Lebed, the only minor (15 years old) prosecuted by the SEC for a Pump-&-Dump stock manipulation scheme.

2. and some guy who calls himself George-4-Title and makes You-Tube videos out of his car.

Lord and Master's picture

Here's the book on NIA-- Lebed is a sociopath scammer to the core.  Maybe he can be redeemed one day, a long time from now... MAYBE.  George is less of a sociopath, and maybe less of a scammer (neither of which is hard to be when compared to Lebed)-- George is the public face of NIA therefore.  Both Lebed, George, and NIA provide some quality info though-- it has a "street" edge to it tho, since neither is educated super well... i.e. they are nice stories from the field...

See my post above for two videos which give a real good idea of NIA...

Incidentally what angers me the most is that when i see their logo i keep reading "PIA" because they use an "N" that looks like a greek letter "pi" ... in some sense, i find this the least forgivable aspect of their enterprise, that they do people with IQs 30 - 50 points above theirs this disservice (of causing them to repeatedly see "PIA", instead of "NIA"

sneering nihilist's picture

The bit on american silver eagles and total us mine production surprised me so I did a little poking around. -- kinda looks like the makings of a blow-off top

then I went here:

notice two of the five main categories of silver demand are in terminal decline and will probably level out close to zero in a decade or so.  I doubt that anyone is expecting a rebound in the use of silver for photography.  Silverware? Seriously!

Jewelry is a wild card. Some fucking retarded celebrity on TV might wear some silver and spark a craze that could send demand soaring.

The developing industrial applications for silver are exciting and I expect long-term growth here.  This is why I am long silver.

Mine production shows continuous growth.  what's going on with scrap is kind of interesting.  It would seem that higher prices would bring more scrap to the market, yet the opposite is happening.

The overall supply and demand for silver looks fairly stable and healthy.  If silver does pop I doubt it would be because of real supply problems.  



THE DORK OF CORK's picture

After reading this article I had a uncontrollable urge to break out my new Silver maple leafs and stroke them gently.

Unfortunetly Elizabeth is in her 2010 incarnation and is therefore looking slightly worse for wear.

If only those good people of the Canadian mint could jettison their conservatism and engrave a portrait of Helen Mirren for the 2011 range - my life would be complete

Gold...Bitches's picture

After reading this article I had a uncontrollable urge to break out my new Silver maple leafs and stroke them gently.

Give in to the urge.

Postal's picture

Keep the dream alive. I get paid in two days. *shudders*

jory's picture

Global silver production is 680 million ounces per year.  Plenty of silver floating around out there.  Plus every ounce of gold ever mined is available for sale.  $6 trillion worth vs. only $875 billion in US dollar currency.  US dollar currency is more rare than gold.  That makes Goldbugs shiver.


Shameful's picture

What about credit money? What's the yearly max production of electronic fiat money?

Also what's the cap on monetary creation each year?  Do we have a lumber and cotton prospectus to see how much money they could print up per year?

Me shiver?  Hell I hope the dollar gains all kinds of value.  Gold to $20 I say!!!  I want to walk into a foreign country with a roll of quarters and be treated like a rock star!

jory's picture

Goldbugs typically have visions of grandeur (ie treated like a rock star).  That's because they generally haven't fared well in the fiat money chase.  They hate the system because they were unsuccessful.  As failures, they blame their shortcomings on the system instead of their own inadequacies.  Sad really.



Shameful's picture

So is that a prediction of $20 gold and a mighty unshakable dollar?  Will my dollars make me wealthy?  After all they must have appreciated so much under the noble leadership of the Federal Reserve.  So oh mighty and wise benefactor tell me what the best investment is?  Perhaps Treasuries, surly yields cannot rise on such a powerful and amazing asset, after all there is never inflation over the reported number.  Give me a prediction I can work with.

SWRichmond's picture

ohboy a new radical paperbug troll

akak's picture

It is highly amusing to watch a dishonest and disingenuous paper pusher (is there any other kind?) engaging in multiple strawmen arguments.

At the risk of asking a rhetorical question, why is it that the most comments are consistently posted under ZH articles dealing with gold, and why is it that the most hystetical pro-establishment, anti-financial freedom propaganda is consistently brought to bear in regards to any blog mention of the precious metals, here or almost anywhere?

Ron Paul answered that question best: "Because gold is honest money, it is disliked by dishonest men."


And you, Jory, are one the most classically and obviously dishonest of posters.


SWRichmond's picture

Francisco's money speech:

"Then you will see the rise of the men of the double standard--the men who live by force, yet count on those who live by trade to create the value of their looted money--the men who are the hitchhikers of virtue. In a moral society, these are the criminals, and the statutes are written to protect you against them. But when a society establishes criminals-by-right and looters-by-law--men who use force to seize the wealth of disarmed victims--then money becomes its creators' avenger. Such looters believe it safe to rob defenseless men, once they've passed a law to disarm them. But their loot becomes the magnet for other looters, who get it from them as they got it. Then the race goes, not to the ablest at production, but to those most ruthless at brutality. When force is the standard, the murderer wins over the pickpocket. And then that society vanishes, in a spread of ruins and slaughter.

"Do you wish to know whether that day is coming? Watch money. Money is the barometer of a society's virtue. When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion--when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing--when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors--when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you--when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice--you may know that your society is doomed. Money is so noble a medium that is does not compete with guns and it does not make terms with brutality. It will not permit a country to survive as half-property, half-loot.

"Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked, 'Account overdrawn.'

"When you have made evil the means of survival, do not expect men to remain good. Do not expect them to stay moral and lose their lives for the purpose of becoming the fodder of the immoral. Do not expect them to produce, when production is punished and looting rewarded. Do not ask, 'Who is destroying the world? You are.

akak's picture

A noble speech, which I was thrilled and mesmerized to read at the tender age of 19.

I have utterly no doubt that our paper-pushing defender of the status quo, Jory, would just sneer at, mock and dismiss it, as he clearly is suffering from Stockholm Syndrome and has thrown in his lot with his oppressors.  Instead of Tanya posing with a machine gun, though, I picture him joyfully (and desperately?) clutching a sheaf of Citi and JPM stock certificates, of course along wth shares of SLV and ETF.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Oh my.....that was pathetic.

Gold...Bitches's picture

They hate the system because they were unsuccessful.  As failures, they blame their shortcomings on the system instead of their own inadequacies.  Sad really.

Oh my.  You have it all mucked up.  Its from being successful and accumulating FRN's that are in excess of what is needed for living and wanting to preserve what I've got in purchasing power and not see it inflated away by the printing press.  That's why I buy gold/silver.

Nout Wellink's picture

Jory, answer a very simple question for all of us:

If gold is such a bad investment, then why are central banks holding tons of it?

akak's picture


Don't you know you aren't supposed to mention that inconvenient little fact?

Next thing we know, you'll be challenging Keynesian itself!  Heresy!

Miss Expectations's picture

If I may:

If gold is such a bad investment, why when are central banks pretending to hold tons of it?

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Damn!  Ok, well....shit, touche.....three card monty then?  Shit Miss...and did you make that name up to say this comment or what...destiny I do believe ;)

What_Me_Worry's picture

Only $875B, huh?  Are you forgetting the national debt, SSI and Medicare liabilities, Fannie and Freddie obligations.  Now socialized health care.  The amount of liabilities backed by the USD is beyond comprehension.

There is much more implied USD floating around than every other cache of precious metal in the world added together.  That should make every US citizen shiver.