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NBER Announces US Recession Ended In June 2009, No Announcement Yet On When Depression Is Due To End

Tyler Durden's picture


The NBER has finally announced the most worthless and overdue piece of data, namely that somehow, miraculously, the US recession that started in December of 2007 ended in June of 2009. We have yet to hear when the distinguished Ph.D.-bearing shamans of Keynesianism at the NBER will convene to decide when the Depression that started in December of 2007 will end. Our estimate is sometime in the mid 2020s, long after the Dow hit 36,000 as news of total nuclear annihilation was priced in by WOPR. From the NBER: "The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic
Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee
determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S.
economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that
began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession
lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since
World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of
1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.
" Somehow we think the 17% of America's labor pool that is not fully employed will beg to differ with this assessment. But at least bankers will be able to justify their 2010 record bonuses.

Full NBER press release:

CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the
National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call.
At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business
activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the
end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of
an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest
of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar
recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16

In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee
did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been
favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal
capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended
and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling
economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few
months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment,
industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the
end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the
business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early
stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the

The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would
be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in
December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength
of the recovery to date.

The committee waited to make its decision until revisions in the
National Income and Product Accounts, released on July 30 and August 27,
2010, clarified the 2009 time path of the two broadest measures of
economic activity, real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) and real Gross
Domestic Income (real GDI). The committee noted that in the most recent
data, for the second quarter of 2010, the average of real GDP and real
GDI was 3.1 percent above its low in the second quarter of 2009 but
remained 1.3 percent below the previous peak which was reached in the
fourth quarter of 2007.

Identifying the date of the trough involved weighing the behavior of
various indicators of economic activity. The estimates of real GDP and
GDI issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of
Commerce are only available quarterly. Further, macroeconomic indicators
are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error. For these
reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to
choose the months of peaks and troughs. It places particular emphasis on
measures that refer to the total economy rather than to particular
sectors. These include a measure of monthly GDP that has been developed
by the private forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers, measures of
monthly GDP and GDI that have been developed by two members of the
committee in independent research (James Stock and Mark Watson,
available here), real personal income excluding transfers, the payroll
and household measures of total employment, and aggregate hours of work
in the total economy. The committee places less emphasis on monthly data
series for industrial production and manufacturing-trade sales, because
these refer to particular sectors of the economy. Movements in these
series can provide useful additional information when the broader
measures are ambiguous about the date of the monthly peak or trough.
There is no fixed rule about what weights the committee assigns to the
various indicators, or about what other measures contribute information
to the process.

The committee concluded that the behavior of the quarterly series
for real GDP and GDI indicates that the trough occurred in mid-2009.
Real GDP reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009, while the
value of real GDI was essentially identical in the second and third
quarters of 2009. The average of real GDP and real GDI reached its low
point in the second quarter of 2009. The committee concluded that strong
growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of 2009
ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third

The committee designated June as the month of the trough based on
several monthly indicators. The trough dates for these indicators are:

Macroeconomic Advisers monthly GDP (June)
The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June)
Their index of monthly GDI (July)
An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June)
Real manufacturing and trade sales (June)
Index of Industrial Production (June)
Real personal income less transfers (October)
Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October)
Payroll survey employment (December)
Household survey employment (December)

The committee concluded that the choice of June 2009 as the trough
month for economic activity was consistent with the later trough months
in the labor-market indicators - aggregate hours and employment -for two
reasons. First, the strong growth of quarterly real GDP and real GDI in
the fourth quarter was inconsistent with designating any month in the
fourth quarter as the trough month. The committee believes that these
quarterly measures of the real volume of output across the entire
economy are the most reliable measures of economic activity. Second, in
previous business cycles, aggregate hours and employment have frequently
reached their troughs later than the NBER's trough date. In
particular, in 2001-03, the trough in payroll employment occurred 21
months after the NBER trough date. In 2009, the NBER trough date is 6
months before the trough in payroll employment. In both the 2001-03 and
2009 cycles, household employment also reached its trough later than
the NBER trough date.

The committee noted the contrast between the June trough date for
the majority of the monthly indicators and the October trough date for
real personal income less transfers. There were two reasons for
selecting the earlier date. The first was described above -- the fact
that quarterly real GDP and GDI rose strongly in the fourth quarter. The
second was that real GDI is a more comprehensive measure of income than
real personal income less transfers, as it includes additional sources
of income such as undistributed corporate profits. The committee's use
of income-side measures, notably real GDI, is based on the accounting
principle that the value of output equals the sum of the incomes that
arise from producing the output. Apart from a random statistical
discrepancy, real GDI satisfies that equality while real personal income
does not.

The committee also maintains a quarterly chronology of business
cycle peak and trough dates. The committee determined that the trough
occurred in the second quarter of 2009, when the average of quarterly
real GDP and GDI reached its low point.

For more information, see the FAQs
and the more detailed description of the NBER's business cycle dating
procedure at An Excel spreadsheet
containing the data and the figures for the indicators of economic
activity considered by the committee is available at that page as well.

The current members of the Business Cycle Dating Committee are:
Robert Hall, Stanford University (chair); Martin Feldstein, Harvard
University; Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard University; Robert Gordon,
Northwestern University; James Poterba, MIT and NBER President; James
Stock, Harvard University; and Mark Watson, Princeton University. David
Romer, University of California, Berkeley, is on leave from the
committee and did not participate in its deliberations.


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Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:32 | 591834 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Well that explains todays retarded stock rally...

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:42 | 591868 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

And rally on as the PPT/Fed will spike it more once Obummer yaps his trap on TV this afternoon.

The fix is in! Get your Dow 12,000 caps ready.

Obama says, "I, with the help of govenment, have officially nded the recession."

Does he lie? Yes he can!

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:55 | 591912 Sucks_to_be_Smart
Sucks_to_be_Smart's picture

How are bankers making record bonuses this year?  Trading revenues are down across the board and IB activity hasn't picked up.  Debt issuance is low and Meredith Whitney is calling for 10% labor force cuts in the industry!



Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:58 | 591920 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

Lack of truth in accounting...

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:28 | 592025 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Amen, in a sense this reminds me of how home values are down and asses so yet yearly taxes to pay on home increases.

The fix is in Boys.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:05 | 591939 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

I think it more related to the POMO action this week.


Pump baby.......PUMP!!!

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:12 | 591969 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Fuck it.  Let's do QE2 anyway!

Can we get an update on investor sentiment - 99% bullish?

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:34 | 591843 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

My news feed this morning... no explanation necessary:

US Stocks Climb, Led By Homebuilders; S&P Breaks Above 1130
MarketWatch - Kristina Peterson - ‎8 minutes ago‎
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- US stocks climbed Monday, led by homebuilders as investors seized on encouraging earnings at the start of a week heavy on housing data and a benchmark index broke above a key technical level.

Homebuilder Confidence in US Held in September at Lowest Level in a Year
Bloomberg - Courtney Schlisserman - ‎11 minutes ago‎
Home sales will be slow to improve as unemployment hovers near 10 percent and foreclosures mount. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg Confidence among US homebuilders in September unexpectedly ...

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:38 | 591859 Turd Ferguson
Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:54 | 591903 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"For we can fly, we can flyyy. Up, up and away in my beautiful, my beautiful balloooooooooooon."

Even the name of the group "The Fifth Dimension" fits so very well.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:42 | 591872 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

I always chuckle at MW headlines. They are just about as bad as CNBC - always looking for some justification for mind boggling market moves.

Again, the economic data has nothing to do with the markets. As long as Apple keeps announcing new products to sell to a gazillion Chinese, Naz will reach 5k within a year or two.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:51 | 591898 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

So that's what, 15 years just to make a nominal round trip and still down about 40% in inflation adjusted terms. Too many victories like that will leave you broke, Harry.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:57 | 591916 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

AAPL was 9 bucks 15 years ago. That's a huge victory. Not for me, I only bought it at 239 just a couple of weeks ago. For those who bought then, it's a bit more than a "nominal round trip".

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:06 | 591943 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

I thought we were talking about the nasdaq, but whatever. Chase those high fliers. By the way did you know the all time high for nortel was $870, about 15 years ago.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:17 | 591988 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Two things:

-AAPL will flame out eventually as the market saturates but that's a fairly long way off. We're probably mid cycle on that as they begin to move into gigantic world markets. Then the inevitable will occur but by then (pre split) AAPL could be trading a $500.00. I'll keep my tight stop with 2% as I trail it upward.

-As long as the 3rd largest company in the world (2nd largest in US) continues this crazy growth, the markets will tag along. They have to with the insane weighting of AAPL in the NAZ and SPX.

So forget every ticker you have. Forget all the economic news. Just put up a tick chart of AAPL with a news feed of everything AAPL and that's all you need to know about the markets.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 12:02 | 592144 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

AAPL: Great American company. Makes all its stuff in China.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:34 | 591844 pat53
pat53's picture

Well, you might as well just stay long stocks and enjoy the ride then.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:55 | 591911 No Mas
No Mas's picture


No matter the constant drum beat of bad news about our or the world's economy, this is pretty much a one way market and that way is up.

This market may not be the market of old, it may be purely a reflection of the fed's largess.  But still, if one buys low and sells high, one makes the same money. 

I have offically gone to the dark side.  My thanks to Ben and Tim.  The implicit promise of a higher market is one I shall use to enrich myself.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:24 | 592015 taraxias
taraxias's picture

I'd be careful about that "enrich" thing if I were you.

When it's time to run for the exits the retail investor (that's you) will be the last to know.

I'm just saying.......

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:35 | 591847 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

I want to see what Reggie has to say about this.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:37 | 591848 Trifecta Man
Trifecta Man's picture

Where's the jobs?  Record foreclosures?

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:40 | 591867 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

We've grown past jobs. We just beam the fat boys straight into peoples heads.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 12:39 | 592276 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

The report doesn't say that things are better, it just says the recession ended.  lol.  In fact they have the balls to say "The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007." 

So there you go.  Welcome to your recovery.  If the bottom falls out tomorrow, that's a NEW recession. 

Men are so simple and so much inclined to obey immediate needs that a deceiver will never lack victims for his deceptions - Niccolo Machiavelli

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:37 | 591855 suteibu
suteibu's picture

That's the good news.  The bad news is that all of the debt, the high unemployment, and the slow drip of government intervention is the new normal.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:37 | 591856 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Actually, the recession officially ended when Steve Jobs introduced the "magical" iPad, making all life perfect for everyone. 

AAPL up another 2% today. I'll repeat this until the markets reach new all time highs; until Apple falters, this market will ramp higher and higher and higher.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:52 | 591906 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Pumpers said the same thing about Enron, Qualcomm, Nortel, Intel. Enjoy that hot stock of the day, harry.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:03 | 591937 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Please, no disrespect but I'm not sure why people can't figure out that the SPX and NAZ are completely overweighted with AAPL. If it continues to move higher, simple math tells you the indices have to move with it. My god, it's 20% of the Nasdaq.

I'm not pumping AAPL, I'm just trying to point out the vast valley between what the economic data tells you and the market movement. There is very little correlation. Apple is not Enron or Nortel, etc., that's silly to even think that. They make innovative products that are tapping into a global market. That means there's a lot of growth ahead for them and, in turn, the markets. 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:09 | 591955 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

I'm pretty sure Nortel made, and Intel makes pretty innovative products for a global market, but hey, AAPL is different. Right.

From 75 to 20 in ten years:;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:24 | 592014 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

In Consumerland (a/k/a USA) the ecosystem of products that AAPL offers distinguishes it materially from those other companies.

Add to that Harry's observation that AAPL is a substantial percentage factor in key indexes, and one can see his point.

Of course, note that the dollar is falling, and THAT will fuel a market rise.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:39 | 591863 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

If it wasn't so sad it would be funny - BTW Gartman saying ECRI is contrary indicator

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:43 | 591876 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

...and by contrary he means 100% of the time when that number is <= -10 a recession shows up shortly.



Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:40 | 591864 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

Thank God...I was getting worried there. 



Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:29 | 592032 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

From today's Gartmen:





Spikes Mark

Economic Slowdown Lows!:

Much is being made recently of the

weakness in the ECRI Leading

Index, but all we know from past

history is that when the Index

reaches the extreme lows such as

it has reached recently that marks

the end of economic weakness

rather than the onset.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:42 | 591869 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

hilarious - cnbc completely turns over to obama worship central

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:11 | 591965 docj
docj's picture

Which is doubly hilarious when you consider that, if the recession actually did end in June 2009 - or 4-months after Barry O was installed - then almost precisely none of his "fixes" to the recession had anything to do with the end of the recession.

Not that any of this matters to the wage-slaves who are watching their neighbors' extended unemployment run out while their own wages have been flat for years in an increasing tax market.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:24 | 592013 Bob
Bob's picture

It's about time they set aside their silly differences and recognized they both work for the same people.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:44 | 592447 aheady
aheady's picture


Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:42 | 591870 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Woohoo!  I am going to max out my credit cards, apply for new ones, and take out a loan and buy stocks to celebrate this miraculous recovery. 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:04 | 591938 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Actually, you are closer than you think to the answer.

There is no way the Fed/Treas/WH/Congress will allow failure or austerity. Print, print, print is their only strategy. 95% of Americans will be murdered by inflation but they won't notice it because their wages and salaries will have doubled, too.

Go ahead. Take on as much debt today as you can. Pay it off tomorrow in your 70%-devalued currency. 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:43 | 591877 Robert J Moran
Robert J Moran's picture

 National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. 

... they phoned it in!

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:43 | 591878 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Looks like they are building the case that Cash for Clunkers actually saved America.

Too bad for them that ZHers know better.


Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:46 | 591884 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

not sure who first talked about DOW 36,000

but recently i came across this guy who does stock forecasting based on astrological charts...even he says the same :-)

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:50 | 591894 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

The great demographer, Harry Dent, first promulgated Dow 36,000 back in the early 90s.

It was supposed to have happened by 2011. It still might.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:58 | 591917 cnbcsucks
cnbcsucks's picture

By 2011???   By the looks of this completely unfounded ramp this morning, we could be there by the end of the week.  This market is a joke...


Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:28 | 592024 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

But first-----Big commodity crash beginning today. Maybe today is the top?...and big equity crash Oct 3-13

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:48 | 591887 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

I'm gonna go with Shadowstats, sorry NBER.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:49 | 591889 Joaquin
Joaquin's picture

The NBER also announced that the Titanic finished sinking at 2:20 AM April 15, 1912 and, as it was already laying on the bottom in pieces, it was not sinking anymore after that.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:50 | 591895 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

PCLN up $11

By the way, when is Eric King going to interview William Shatner??


Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:57 | 591914 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Chase it, Robo. Pound that F12 key to fame and fortune.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:06 | 591944 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Refresh! Refresh!!

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:31 | 592039 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Robo, it's very hard to take your posts seriously when Alf (you know, that funny looking hairy creature you keep posting photos of) keeps bitch slapping you month after month.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:31 | 592041 reading
reading's picture

He doesn't trade it -- he just talks about it.  Remember he's in the safe dividend payers.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:51 | 591900 TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

Interesting story in NY Post

NYPost: Are Poll Workers Being Used to Inflate Jobs Total?

For the first time ever poll workers are being asked to file forms with IRS so they can be counted as 'employees' - a nice way to goose monthly jobs report right ahead of an election?  Mmm... 


Workers at polling places for today's primary and November's general election are being required to file tax withholding forms for the first time ever in a move that could be aimed at inflating the nation's employment numbers.   Is this really a little Election Eve trick? Here's what I learned, you decide.

But if the election boards in all 50 states suddenly report an influx of additional government workers, the effect on the monthly employment numbers could be very, very significant.  

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:28 | 592027 Bob
Bob's picture

That's a no brainer . . .

What a fucking joke bad joke.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:53 | 591907 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

So, does this put the Kibosh on QEII? 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:55 | 591910 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Nice hatchet job on the homebuilders last week.

Somebody knew something.

LEN is the top gainer today on the S & P 500

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:37 | 592059 reading
reading's picture

Only 31% from it's April high.  You obviously were caught long the spring time market highs (did you forget to have stops when you took that time off to paint your Mother's house) and are desperate to get back to those levels -- only that could explain the ridiculous of your continued posts.  But in other news, Gold's up another $6.60 today...

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:43 | 592074 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

I like Robo's posts on these ridiculous high flyers. It just serves as evidence of every post on ZH about the absurdity of the markets. Nothing wrong with chasing something that's been on a rip for weeks. Just trail right behind it at 2% stop. It's about making money, right?

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 12:09 | 592165 reading
reading's picture

Not arguing that, however, he made it clear he doesn't trade them.  Why assume this is of interest to everyone else here if it does not interest him?  He has to find a "high flyer" to post about as he's been monkey-hammered on his gold call for as long as most here can remember.  If he wants to post about those that he's actually trading I might find that interesting, but to continually search out some "freakish" high mover and post a chart on a timeframe that is convoluted at best seems less than beneficial to the discussion at large.  JMO

* PS...not a gold bug, but I have the utmost respect for those that have seen the long-term benefits of holding gold.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 12:19 | 592196 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

But that's exactly what ZH is about - finding the absurdity in the markets. He finds the insanely freaky ones and posts them. He's not gloating about them and he admits he's not buying them. So it would seem like he's posting precisely what ZH is about really.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:55 | 592480 reading
reading's picture

Not exactly following your logic or your argument.  

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 15:19 | 592698 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Thanks for these gap-up stocks RobotTrader! Nice gaps that will need to be filled sooner or later. Great PUT opportunity if one can get the timing right!

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:57 | 591913 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

One hell of a POMO bounce today!

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:57 | 591915 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

LMAO!!! Thanks NBER, I can finally sleep tonight.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:00 | 591929 viator
viator's picture
Coming to a government near you... UK Proposes All Paychecks Go to the State First

The UK's tax collection agency is putting forth a proposal that all employers send employee paychecks to the government, after which the government would deduct what it deems as the appropriate tax and pay the employees by bank transfer.


Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:03 | 591936 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Holy F'ing Shit!

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:12 | 591968 nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

Translation - taxes will be increased by the same amount as payroll for all business, all businesses will fire every employee. The government will become the only employer in the country, loaning workers to companies in exchange for taxes.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 12:19 | 591990 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Yep, and of course this has zero to do with realtime reporting and collection confidence.   This is THE oppression to guarantee zero upward mobility by any means for anyone not "Nazi" (insert oppressive social club of choice here).

Protect the crooks at all costs by pounding the victims with their own government hammer "for their own good."

Chinese totalitarian oppression taxes could be coming to 50 states, too.   Nothing but government sponsored ownership of the problem to pay for other people's failures. (Sound familiar?!)

One can kiss the land formerly known as XYZ goodbye, and pity the fools that gave it away for serfdom if this mafia bullshit passes anywhere in the "free world."

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:01 | 591932 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

So ZIRP and POMOs are no longer needed than? Excellent let the recovery begin!

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:02 | 591933 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

PHEW, I'm glad that text-book definition of a recession is thrown out...despite that it's based on government borrowing, printing, and lying.

Man, party on!

This has become a sad, pitiful, and truly pathetic joke.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:05 | 591942 Oso
Oso's picture

Fed POMO'd $5.2 bl today.  TODAY.  "mysterious" $3bl e-mini print earlier.  Markets are back to 2009 craziness.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:08 | 591951 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

"US Recession Ended In June 2009" 


Boy, somebody forgot to tell all the stores in my local plaza, oops! their gone now.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:08 | 591953 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

DOW weekly chart shows key resistance around 10,700

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:13 | 591962 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Are these NBER people on the government payroll? WTF!


Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:12 | 591967 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

It is the same robots throwing money at the same stocks. They profit in the short run as the short squeeze commences. Economic outlook? That is for suckers or the unlucky unemployed citizens.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:13 | 591971 Melson Nandela
Melson Nandela's picture

I really wonder why I studied Finance and Economics, should have just pledged my first born to the Fed  in exchange for some POMO money.


The only solace is my firm conviction this will end badly, like all debt-fueled binges always do.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:21 | 592000 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

This NBER "news" is the classic contrary indicator. Watch Obama tout the crap out of it today. Is the top in?

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:22 | 592003 packman
packman's picture

Somehow we think the 17% of America's labor pool that is not fully employed will beg to differ with this assessment. But at least bankers will be able to justify their 2010 record bonuses.

You gotta understand something, Tyler.  Recession, as defined by the PTB, does not mean the same thing as recession as presented by the MSM.  It technically means the act of recessing; it doesn't mean the state of being recessed.

Once you get past that obstacle, it makes sense - in a perverted kind of way. 

That being the case, however - the phrase "in a recession" becomes meaningless, because it implies a state, not a transition.  In proper terminology - from 2007-2009 we were not in a recession, we were in a recessing. 



Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:35 | 592053 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Hows crime doing? Its getting bad, thefts esp. Here in NJ. Anyone follow stats on that? Seen nothing lately.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:56 | 592122 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

The media machine is on full re-election alert. Paul Krugman in the Times says the RICH are angry about the tax cut removal. As if 9 million unemployed are not pissed. He says the poor are taking in the chin and the rich are whining. I have no idea what he is talking about except it's a status quo, class baiting tactic by a ponzi Keynesian trying to help his dream President out.
The recession is not over by a long shot- all stats are fake and manipulated to assist the banks and ruling elite

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 11:57 | 592126 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

The media machine is on full re-election alert. Paul Krugman in the Times says the RICH are angry about the tax cut removal. As if 9 million unemployed are not pissed. He says the poor are taking in the chin and the rich are whining. I have no idea what he is talking about except it's a status quo, class baiting tactic by a ponzi Keynesian trying to help his dream President out.
The recession is not over by a long shot- all stats are fake and manipulated to assist the banks and ruling elite

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 12:11 | 592174 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Comment from Calculated Risk:

"This is somewhat subjective - and I thought they'd wait longer because the committee usually waits until some of the key indicators have returned to pre-recession levels. This time no indicator has reached the pre-recession level, and some are still very low (like personal income less transfer payments)."

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 12:30 | 592236 win
win's picture

Ground Hog Day

Why do NBER announcements always remind me of Groundhog Day:

According to folklore, if it is cloudy when a groundhog emerges from its burrow on this day, it will leave the burrow, signifying that winter will soon end. If on the other hand, it is sunny, the groundhog will supposedly "see its shadow" and retreat back into its burrow, and winter will continue for six more weeks.

This does a disservice to ground hogs world wide - because at the very least, ground hogs examine the current weather while the NBER only seems to examine year old data. And of course, right or wrong, the ground hog is a predictor of future outlook, while NBER, when they emerge from their burrow, predicts the past with amazing 20/20 hindsight.

I wonder if someone should tell them that Information is not information unless it is timely, relevant and accurate.  It seems the NBER has brought disgrace to the profession long enough - perhaps it is time for the young bucks (and of course young buck-ettes) to wrest the reigns form these stodgy old timers, maybe buy a few computers and enter the real time information age.


Mon, 09/20/2010 - 12:35 | 592256 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Well now, we're approaching the anniversary of the all time high in retail sales, which stood at $342.3 billion for the month of November, 2007.

Last data in that series, for August 2010, clocked in at...$323.3 billion.  Still over 5% below those highs...and that is not inflation adjusted. 

Since a good half percent of that is now thought to come from dogged US consumerpatriots who are not paying their mortgages to support their spending, well, let's just see how it plays out now, shall we?

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 12:40 | 592278 JR
JR's picture

This whole Obama show reminds me of Stalin’s Five-Year-Plan boasts when he ushered in the notorious era of purge and terror amidst starvation in the mid-1930s on the slogan: “Life is better, comrades, life is gayer.”

Stalin instituted his First Five Year Plan campaign in 1928 to collectivize agriculture in order to "build socialism," and to "catch and overtake" the capitalist world.  Obama has instituted his NBER Recovery in the U.S. on the slogan “The Recession Has Ended” in order to “build socialism” and destroy the capitalist world.

Joseph Stalin’s failed Five Year plans "worked so well,"  just like Obama's, that he was able to declare that goals were generally reached on them in four years.   Although his Soviet Union dictatorship could hardly be called socialism, it definitely was a campaign against any form of individual enterprise and property rights.  President Obama’s comments today, with a background finally "freed of Bush’s awful recession" and just weeks before mid-term elections, is no more reality than the pretences of Stalin. 

With bailouts, money printing, and the U.S. reverting to Soviet-style socialism, any suggestions of recovery and real growth in the American economy are no more than empty campaign promises, backed by the full force of contrived government statistics, paid economists, prostituting media, and investment bankers designing a collectivist world

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 12:59 | 592323 tom
tom's picture

"The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date."

Net of inventories, per capita, 2q10 real GDP was up a whopping 0.4% from its trough in 3q09! Sustained growth over three quarters adding up to cumulative 0.4% growth! Wow, hold your hat on!

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:10 | 592351 JR
JR's picture

Whoa there, kimosabe.  We don’t need no stinkin’ facts.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:08 | 592338 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

The word "trough" was used 26 times in the NBER statement. Word must've come down to get out the word "trough". I expect to hear the word "trough" spewed repeatedly from politician's mouths in the near future. We are pigs being led to the "trough".

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:23 | 592385 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Clearly the flunkies writting the statement didn't take creative writing in high school, let alone college. Some words to substitute in for "trough" might, furrow, trench, ditch, drain, depression (obvious a no-no for the NBER) and my favorite, gutter.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:51 | 592464 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Shallow grave?

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 15:52 | 592825 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

Don't mind all of the empty storefronts, empty houses, and 20% real unemployment. There's a new retailer that is growing by leaps and bounds and is set to overtake WalMart as America's leading discount store: Pawn America!

Times are GREAT!

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:58 | 592492 JR
JR's picture

Reminds me of the Congressman’s office when a call came in from a constituent asking “to talk to the big hog at the trough.” 

The indignant secretary said, “Now that’s hardly the way to talk about a member of Congress!"

To which the caller replied, “Well, I just wanted to ask him if I could send along a $1000 check for his re-election.” 

“Oh,” said the Congressman’s secretary, “just a second! I think I see the big hog coming through the door right now.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 14:23 | 592540 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Everyone can be bought. The art is purchasing for the lowest price. Or finding the substitute for outright cash that will make some people jump who would normally say they can't be "bought". There are many mediums of exchange other than the paper variety.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:30 | 592408 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

They will have to undeclare it after the election in order to maintain their "academic integrity".


Mon, 09/20/2010 - 14:02 | 592498 JR
JR's picture

And re-institute stimulus wealth redistribution.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:42 | 592437 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

Recession just ended?!?! Oh my god! This is amazing, I just heard we landed on the moon too!

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 14:26 | 592545 redpill
redpill's picture

It's one of many sad ironies that home sales hit record lows a year and a month after the recession supposedly ended.


Mon, 09/20/2010 - 15:32 | 592563 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

This news is just too much for me, today.  I think I'll go out in the back yard and get some sun.  Followed by a run down my razor blade coverd slide and in to my pool, which is filled with Chinese hot mustard. 

Enjoy your day, all.


PS - ned, I cleared a couple of things up on the japanese flag burning post, fwiw.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 15:26 | 592729 Dburn
Dburn's picture

This was a email from a supplier that sells HP equipment. Note the List Price of $15,995.00. This is a leasing purchase. Most sign shops either don't have the cash or don't want to risk the cash on that size of purchase. The printer itself is the top ranked in it's class. Now it's down to $6,000 where people will more than likely have the cash ( maybe) so no bank financing will be required. This is from HP too, who have discounted maybe 10% using trade-ins before but nothing like 63% off. This is not the supplier having cash problems . These are pass through programs as no supplier in their right mind would actually stock these 400 pound monsters. Free shipping too? That's another $400.00-500.00.

It's also interesting to note that these companies don't make shit on the printers but hopefully will make it up in consumables like ink. However, third party ink Manufacturers are already selling ink at 50-70% off what HP is charging. In good times people wouldn't risk it. Now? It's a matter of survival.

Note the end of the quarter as deadline too. HP must think they are going to sell a hell of a lot of these in 10 days. They just killed their pricing for their premiere product. I'm sure they will release a "new and improved " product to try to recapture it. But they can't get back to there from here.

This is recovery?


I wanted to let you know about a great printer promotion from LexJet and HP. The details of the promotion are as follows: • Z6100 (non-PostScript) 60” List $15,995 – SALE PRICE $7,995.00 plus a $2,000.00 Trade-In Rebate = $5,995.00 • Z6100 (PostScript) 60” List $18,995 – SALE PRICE $10,395 plus a $2,000.00 Trade-In Rebate = $8,395.00 • Offer ends Sept 30th!!! • Qualifies for LexJet CEEP rebate program(details attached) – This will enable you to receive a 10% rebate paid quarterly for 3 years! • Free Shipping Please click here to calculate your rebate. As always, if you have any questions, don’t hesitate to contact me. Best regards, Rob

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 15:30 | 592754 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

"The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion."

Certainly this opens the door to a second dip announcement later down the road. Actually aside from the fact that they were compelled to make this announcement by TPTB, I believe it is an omen that a 'double-dip' is immanent!

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