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Net Euro Speculative Short Positions Decline Marginally From Record, Yen Longs Surge

Tyler Durden's picture


According to the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report, non-commercial speculative shorts in the Euro declined for the week ended March 2, and for the first time in over two months, tracking the move of the EUR higher over the past week. Total net positions declined from -71,623  to -66,770, or a net long increase of 4,853. This is still the second highest net short exposure in over two years.

On the other side, a stunning push in Yen long exposure increased the net long Yen positions from 1,717 in the prior week to a whopping 32,552. The next question: will Japan promptly ask all these speculators to perform Seppuku after they have done all they can to make the Yen more expensive, thus laying Japan's best laid plans to stimulate inflation to waste.

The third most relevant currency, the British Pound, saw a net short increase, with net short Non-commercial contracts increasing from -64,647 to -67,549.



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Fri, 03/05/2010 - 17:30 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 03/05/2010 - 17:32 | Link to Comment Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

Lil off topic here but i just finished trading and i have a question: WHAT THE PHUCK IS THE DEAL WITH THE VOLUME????

Today is another new daily, weekly, monthly high and the volume phucking sux branch water!!!  yet the mkt continues higher?

I don't give a shit which way it goes, but ferchisssakes - how does it rally on no volume?  Truly phucking pathetic!

Sat, 03/06/2010 - 15:54 | Link to Comment gmak
gmak's picture

I invite you to read some older ZH posts that show JPM hitting the higher and higher bid in a long series of buys on SPX.

Monkey see, monkey do - and the all get pulled along by the tail.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 21:48 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 03/06/2010 - 00:50 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture


USD index weekly chart remains bullish.

USDJPY (dollar yen) daily chart has recently gone bullish.

Sat, 03/06/2010 - 03:49 | Link to Comment Gunther
Gunther's picture

How important is the Chicago futures for Forex?

Forex can be traded diectly at high lerverage. I am not a Forex specialist but forex options feels like dumb money to me.

I got that while checking for the daily trading volume:

"24-Hour Market
Currency market is a 24-hour market, unlike most of the futures exchanges, allowing its traders to react to the immediate news happenings by trading immediately. This facility cannot be availed with the futures market which only operates during business hours and not for 24 hours a day. 

Superior liquidity
Forex markets hold unmatched liquidity as compared to currency futures.  Especially with $1.5 trillion changing hands daily, Forex is the largest and most liquid market in the world. It can absorb a large trading volume and the transaction sizes are huge too, in comparison to any other market. Futures market, on the other hand, is a $30 billion market per day which provides only limited liquidity with a lesser trading volume."



Sat, 03/06/2010 - 09:57 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

I hate to tell you but it really doesn't matter if the markets are open 24/5 or not.  After the S & P 500 closes trading, the 4X market is basically dead in the water until the European market opens the next morning, about 14-16 hours later (meaning that a lot of the time, 4X traders pack it up at noonish Eastern time...)

No reason to be jealous.

Sat, 03/06/2010 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

The third wave has commenced.

First weakness in the dollar > strength in the Euro.  Weakness in the Euro > strength in the Yen.  Weakness in the Yen ( some time around August 2010...) > strength in the dollar.

My vague suspicions about the world's central bankers playing an expensive game of Tilt-a-Whirl are becoming stronger.  Still vague as to the mechanics of it as well as the underlying necessity.  The pattern, however, is definitely gaining strength.

I also suspect- with absolutely no proof- that all this has been done to put a floor under the Great British Pound Sterling, which was very near collapse at the height of the crisis.  A half-trillion under the table in Fed-sponsored FX swaps prevented a catastrophe in the UK markets. That much we know is true.  (See Alan Grayson on YouTube...)

If this is the true underlying reason, then expect for the JPY to go galactic against the GBP in the coming months.  Looking at the charts, there was a 23.6% retracement from a ginormous (+2000-pips...) over the past two years.  Now, the pair is in a downtrend that has already retraced 50% of that dead-cat bounce.  (That previous low, by the way, was very near all-time lows for the Pound/Yen...)

I would expect that the GBP will retrace to that level, before another round of currency manipuation occurs, with the next time being strength in the USD siphoning off the strength in the Yen.

Sell GBP/JPY to 120.  August 15, 2010 near-date target.  Then get very, very long.


Fri, 04/16/2010 - 08:38 | Link to Comment mark456
mark456's picture

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