• Leo Kolivakis
    03/19/2010 - 17:00
    Europe faces a commercial property debt timebomb with almost €1 trillion (£896bn) outstanding from the sector and a quarter of that potentially distressed. The UK accounts for 34% of the €970bn total, with Germany second with 24%. Not to worry, global pension funds are busy snapping up properties but do they really know how long it will be before this crisis blows over? And what if it gets a lot worse before it gets better? Are pensions prepared to deal with those losses?
  • Reggie Middleton
    03/19/2010 - 10:03
    As I warned in my Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis series and amid a depression, this Eastern European government has collapsed. Western European countries (and their banks) have material claims within this country, and when combined with pressure from the PIIGS, may be the ones that set off the financial/economic contagion daisy chain. It is difficult to determine who sets it off, which is why it is best to attempt to determine the path of the contagion instead...

New $170 Billion Stimulus Package On Deck

Tyler Durden's picture




The economy is so hot, that democrats in Congress are now moving with yet another stimulus package, this one for $170 billion, targeting bankrupt states and formerly surging unemployment (Obama has some TV appearances today; the BLS will be back to its previously scheduled job collapse next month). In other news, Japan did approximately 10 such small scale bailouts even as its market proceeded to keep probing new lows over the last two decades, and as reinvested 3x its annual GDP in comparable such one-time boosts to the economy without doing anything to prevent its current deflationary collapse.

From Dow Jones:

Congressional Democrats are moving ahead with a roughly $170 billion package to spur jobs growth and boost emergency  assistance to the unemployed, Democratic congressional aides say.


The two separate bills are taking shape amid an improving jobs picture, but with unemployment still at 10%. U.S. President Barack Obama will deliver a speech Tuesday at the Brookings Institution where he intends to lay out his own ideas for a narrowly targeted jobs bill, which will overlap with  Congress's intentions but won't be identical.


Both the administration and Congress will almost certainly pay for part of their program with some of the $115 billion that bailed out banks have repaid to the Treasury Department.

Some more details on Krugman's wet dream:

The legislation will likely be split in two. The first part, at around $110 billion, would be considered emergency spending. It would again extend unemployment insurance, food stamp increases and a provision in the stimulus bill that subsidizes private-health insurance for the unemployed. This portion will likely be attached to a giant spending bill this month to fund the federal government, and will be added to the already huge U.S. budget deficit.


A second "jobs" bill would cost up to $70 billion, funded by the bank bailout. It would include more money for highway and bridge building, school construction and repair, and water and sewer projects. A second component would be direct aid to state governments cutting back services and raising taxes, moves that are hurting the economic recovery.


Finally, some repaid bailout funds will be lent back to small businesses directly from the Treasury.

Of course, nobody will have the brilliant idea of actually using TARP repayments (before they are needed to bail out the banking system again some time in late 2010) to actually pay back some of the debt which as of a few months ago has been classified as "unmanageable" by everyone including Mr. Bernanke. But why care about the sovereign default in 4-6 years when there are mid-term elections to be worried about. At least in the meantime, the abovementioned Fed Chairman can teach us all we need to know about Fiscal responsibility, courtesy of a completely "apolitical" and transparent Federal Reserve.

5
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by Anonymous
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:10
#152629

$170 billion is the new small scale. Nice.

by Cognitive Dissonance
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:22
#152653

Designed to fly under the radar. These days, $170 Billion is a rounding error for Congress. Death by a thousand cuts.

by TraderMark
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 15:26
#152905

We've already forgotten but not 2 years ago $190B was the Bush stimulus.  They now come in annual installment.

 

p.s. this is mostly yet another handout to bankrupt states... now all of us can pay for public workers to retire at age 54... or in New Jersey get 1 paid day off to go Christmas shopping.  Or 8 paid days off for wedding.  We all get to pay for it now.

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/12/next-stimulus-arrives-just-dont-call-it.html

by TraderMark
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 15:28
#152906

psst Durden

don't call it a stimulus plan

 

thats how you get the peasants pissed off... we now call it "job creation bill"

Thank you for your compliance.

by Rainman
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 18:49
#153344

And special thanks to Mr. Durden for not mentioning that pesky debt ceiling .

Ooops.......maybe that pushup is a rider on the $ 170 B giveaway.

Silly me.

by zeta34
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 21:05
#153505

The solution is to gift more money to the non-contributors?  I thought that's what ObamaCare was for.  On thing is for certian...Obama is a flat out liar, but there is one campaign promise he is going to keep.  "We are all in this together."  That means, if you have a job or do something productive, we will take all that money to pay off the mortgages of the fiscally irresponsible.

 

Why, you ask?  Because the fiscally irresponsible are fee insensitive.  Countrywide made an average of 15% in fees off the most toxic of their subprime loans.  Mozilo cashed it all out in options gains, and now Fannie is forgiving the principle on those loans, thanks to the taxpayer.  The plan?  Rev up another round of lending to illegals for Florida investment condos, the few workers left don't mind paying.

by truont
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:11
#152632

Save California!  They are too big to fail!

:P

by digalert
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:57
#152820

California needs to be on the permanent TARP recipient list.

by Missing_Link
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 17:33
#153208

This is funny  ...  Arnold Schwarzenegger getting all panicked over the hypothetical possibility that someday, global warming *MIGHT* put a few parts of San Francisco underwater.

http://bit.ly/5R2Tj2

Buddy, have you checked the state budget recently?  Have you noticed that your state's economy is many miles underwater already?  Priorities, please!

by MsCreant
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:12
#152633

Do I laugh? Who slipped me the shrooms in my coffee this morning?

by Brian Griffin
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:18
#152645

I did.  But it was 2c-c. 

by tomdub_1024
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:20
#152647

I hear you...might as well laugh...the other choices...vomiting....suicide...heavy drinking are less than ideal I am lead to believe...

by Brian Griffin
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:27
#152662

Oh I'm not so sure.  I have a support group (twelve pack of High Life) and they've helped me weather the storm.

by tomdub_1024
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:52
#152709

For me its Sapphire and various microbrews on weekends...during week its pwt beer...

by Brian Griffin
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:35
#152776

You're a gentleman, a scholar and a fine judge of beer. 

by Cognitive Dissonance
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:20
#152648

LOL

The red mushrooms with the white and blue dots are what the masters of the universe are serving America this morning. Looks like you're building up a tolerance to them. Double your dose and call me next week.

by Terminal Frost
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:24
#152656

Perhaps an appetizer for the metaphorical mushroom cloud main course?

by Sqworl
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:15
#152739

Let's all party tonight on RadioZH...rsvp required due to recent bust:

There is now a line of Ecstasy pills made in the image of the 44th president of the United States, according to Texas police who have snatched a batch off the streets.

Photo Gallery: Obama Ecstasy pills

Ecstasy is known for a sense of elation, diminished feelings of fear and anxiety, and ability to induce a sense of intimacy with others.

See you tonight CD, Miles and gang...x

by carbonmutant
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 17:39
#153217

Dems de new Hope pills.

by Anonymous
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 18:08
#153277

You make it sound so rosy, Sqworl.

Can you tell the readers about how it comes on a freight train, is more powerful than 1000 mics of LSD, makes you hump the floor and furniture uncontrollably, and then the next day you feel like you're in mourning for the death of your most beloved human being on the planet and this lasts into the next day.

Also, be sure to tell them about that part where you see demons the next day too.

No I don't mean like LSD 'I know they're not real' demons.

I mean the ones that you go 'Ah shit the damn things are real'.

Thanks.

=>BarlesMobley

by ShankyS
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:12
#152634

Japan did 10? I bet their bankers are rich as all fucking shit!

by Steak
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 15:15
#152873

If you count all the check in the mail rebate checks we've gotten in the past decade along with the TARPs of the world I think this new one would put us pretty close to 10 already.  I'm sure fore its all over we'll show them Japanese what real money printing is all about.

by HelluvaEngineer
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:23
#152654

Thanks.  This convinced me to get back into the CEF I was shaken out of this morning.

by stockoperator
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:25
#152658

How is it stimulus when you are spending it on extending unemployment benefits and food stamps.

by Terminal Frost
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:28
#152664

Unemployed = Kindles for Christmas!

by cougar_w
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 16:37
#153088

Spending it that way would be in keeping with general stimulus theory, and would represent an improvement over the last stimulus.

The idea is that you get printed money into the hands of people that actually spend it on services and goods -- rather than say bankers who pocket it, or governments who waste it. The poor and unemployeed have no choice but to spend the money, so it moves immediately into the real economy. The money then winds its way through the economy multiplying as it goes and building the GDP, hopefully creating some traction.

This is the basis of BB's "helicopter" premise. Up to now there has been no helicopter drops even in theory. Actual helicopter drops of actual money into real communities are straight out of the question, but the general idea is the thing.

cougar

by AN0NYM0US
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:26
#152661

here is the clip of President Obama taking credit for the jobs numbers

 

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/ID/216351&start=804&end=869

by Unscarred
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:57
#152716

Is it just me, or does he seem to get more smarmy with every speech he makes?

by MsCreant
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:59
#152720

Megla is the term you are looking for. Delusional works too.

by Unscarred
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:16
#152743

Kinda reminds me of, dare I say it...  W.?

by carbonmutant
on Sat, 12/05/2009 - 00:59
#153697

The phrase you're groping for is "Reality Distortion Field"

The Legendary expert was Steve Jobs.

by chet
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:31
#152670

Will this stimulus be dispersed by helicopter?  I feel like we were promised helicopters.

by NYPoke
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:36
#152683

Will be dispersed by electronic golf carts.

by MsCreant
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:43
#152697

Which are themselves a product of stimulus. Nice.

by docj
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:51
#152708

Not helicopters - unicorns.

by SWRichmond
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:35
#152679

What the F?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1ay8OwJEGoQ&pos=3

Obama Won’t Seek Second Major Economic Stimulus (Update1) Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Julianna Goldman

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration won’t seek a second economic stimulus like the $787 billion package passed earlier this year, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said.

by Divided States ...
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:42
#152691

Yeah, no major stimulus packages, just a string of smaller ones, starting with 170 billion of useless green paper.

by MsCreant
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:42
#152693

Maybe the 170 in this article is not going to be called a stimulus package? What a freaking trip this day is.

Here is a theory, Dubai going bye, bye, may have all kinds of disorganized responses happening together. Chickens without heads and all.

by Anonymous
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:33
#152773

Well, a mere 170 gigadollars could be described as a *small* stimulus. (A *pep*?) But yes, apparently (can't find the link) since 'stimulus' is now a tainted word with the public, all future stimuli will be designated as 'jobs programs' instead. Everyone likes jobs, right? And they'll be smaller, as Mr. Dissonance said.

by AR
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:45
#152694

One of our Washington contacts close to the Chicago group has told us that the bureaucrats are quote "politically scared shitless" over this economy, and, how to save it. They know all their asses are on the line. To them, this is about their self preservation, not the American people. An indication of this is shown via their "stop gap" stimulus programs announced regularly each week through our teleprompter puppet. Take a step back, a 13 year old knows that you can't pay for debt, by issuing more debt, then come up with more weekly program schemes to issue more debt, and call it all a new name. You can't ignore reality forever. The problem, they literally don't care. To this administration, it''s one large piggy bank playing with OPM (other people's money) kicking the responsibility down the road for another generation to pay off. If you feel helpless, remember something, when it comes time to exercise your vote, educate yourself well, and vote the bastards out of office.

by cthulhu
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:59
#152721

Part of the problem in Japan has been the "zombie companies" kept alive by government fiat and using up all the resources that could better be utilized by actual businesses.

We've heard a lot about "zombie banks" in the US, and zombie car companies. But what we really have is a "zombie government".

by ghostfaceinvestah
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:02
#152725

"a 13 year old knows that you can't pay for debt, by issuing more debt, then come up with more weekly program schemes to issue more debt, and call it all a new name. You can't ignore reality forever"

Yup, which is why I added even more to my gold positions today.  Thanks for the pullback.

Below is the single most important story I read today, and confirms the info I have been seeing: after over a year of delaying the inevitable, we finally are seeing capitulation in the housing market.  Ultimately this will be positive for the economy, but there is going to be a lot of short term pain that will need to be covered up by a massive money print and more shifting of debt from the private sector to the public sector.  The final realization of these losses finally put a nail in the head of the bond insurers like MBIA, for example, which will lead to more cascading losses, which will be covered up by the government, etc.

All of which will put further pressure on the dollar and lead to a massive default via more QE.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=aUUKgeazm0GA

by MsCreant
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:10
#152734

From the short sale, it is just one more step to go ahead and reduce the principle itself. It would save money on paper work to switch owners.

by Anonymous
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 15:10
#152858

Bite your tongue. Banksters cannot realize losses from cramdowns. What we need is real tax reform for the big and small banksters. A soft bed of feathers for them to gently land on.

by chet
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:21
#152752

I've been reading the "emerging trends 2010" report from the Urban Land Institute (large real estate developer and investor group).  Price Waterhouse Coopers puts it together every year, and talk to a lot of industry people.

The exec summary has opinions from bankers stating that they basically expect a bailout for CRE in some form or another in 2010.  Essentially because Washington won't "waste their efforts so far by letting it all go to hell now."

Expect more of the same, for a few more quarters anyway.

I only have a hard copy, otherwise I would post it for you guys.  Interesting and grim report.

by cougar_w
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 16:45
#153106

Then we've crossed the event horizon and are now sliding down the frictionless slope of Bailout Utopia into the black hole of socialist corruption.

But this will be corporate socialism -- corporatism -- to which the only answer is conflagration.

Because giving away the country to cushion the fall of the parastic pirate class will not stand.

cougar

by chet
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:16
#152742

"To them, this is about their self preservation, not the American people."

You need a Washington contact to tell you that politicians think first and foremost about their own self preservation?

"To this administration, it''s one large piggy bank playing with OPM (other people's money) kicking the responsibility down the road for another generation to pay off."

And the adminisration before them, and the one before that, and the one before that, and the one before that, etc. for as long as I've been alive.

"...educate yourself well, and vote the bastards out of office."

And vote for who exactly?  The "fiscally conservative" politicians?  Might as well go on a snipe hunt.

 

by docj
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:24
#152754

Well, you still change diapers - though they too will sooner-or-later become soiled.  Right?

by chet
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:30
#152764

My point is that we don't have any clean diapers to use.

by docj
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:32
#152770

Heh - and I thought I was a cynic.  Cheers -

by Mr. Anonymous
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:45
#152700

Markets, schmarkets, Leo the K says we've got two more gears ahead of us before top trading speed is breached.  May the mighty Filth gear be with you!

by chunkylover42
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:48
#152703

Another round of stimulus as the administration trumpets today's jobs news is basically saying that the economy is both improving and deteriorating at the same time.  We haven't even spent all of the $787 billion that was SUPPOSED to be used for roads, bridges, etc. as a jobs program, so why do we need to add another $70 billion for the same thing?  What a disgusting joke.

I'm sure the MSM will pick up on all this and hammer President Bush for it, and rightly so.  Oh wait, you mean a democrat is prez now?  Never mind.

by Brother Revegen...
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:49
#152704

Yeah, 170bn is like pocket money hehe :))

by stoverny
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:50
#152706

I love the whole "funded by the bank bailout" part.  Genius.  These guys should set up a 3-card monte game on a NYC streetcorner.

by primus
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:53
#152711

Heh.

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Chief Lloyd Blankfein is weighing plans to increase the share of compensation paid out in equity to executives in a bid to quell public anger over the probability of large pay-outs, the Financial Times said.

And paying out bonuses in stock vs Heli-Chairman space bucks will 'quell' public anger how? Gold-Sacks might want to spend some of that bonus money on Blackwater mercenaries to defend 85 Broad from the swarms of unemployed plebs whose prospect for a happy New Year are looking grimmer by the day.

by docj
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 13:58
#152718

Meanwhile, AU is flirting with a close of around 1150 today (it's 1160 now and on it's way through the 3rd floor).  Going to be an interesting weekend.

by trav777
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:14
#152737

yeah...big currency moves too, yen down 2.3% vs USD right now.  the SP500 seems to be holding up but bonds are selling too

by HelluvaEngineer
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:31
#152766

Great, somehow everything is gonna end in the red today.  I need to go all in cash.

by Anonymous
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:06
#152731

Sheila Bair will likely need every penny of that $170 Billion.

by bugs_
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:19
#152750

Will actually wind up being 17B.

by Hephasteus
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:28
#152760

Ya. Let's fake some stimulus distribute it to mythical made up districts and advertise it on a 18 million dollar website. All while sitting on our ass waiting for our other real plans of what we really care about to come to fruition.

by Gilgamesh
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:32
#152769

Anything RED will be met with GREEN ($).  Just look at the S&P - any negative sign is quickly erased in mere minutes.

Until that changes, blips in the price of yellow (shiny) are just opportunities.  Haven't we be indoctrinated to 'buy the dips'?

by Anonymous
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:32
#152771

Long dollar, short gold on an unemployment blip when the macro is the same or worse? Sold to you.

by Anonymous
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 14:37
#152781

Another stimulus? What the h*** for? Didn't the current enemployment report indicate that the recession was over and employment was heading to the moon? (sarcasim)

My first impression upon hearing those numbers this morning was how could they be that far off????Generally, "predicated" versus "actual" (which are more than likely manipulated, too) aren't that far off. But to come in so out of sync from what was anticipated this week tells me that things must be really in the s***er. They don't care who knows they're fudging the numbers, now. Katy bar the door!!

I can tell you from the ground level, there is no turn around in employment and in fact, some companies are instigating mandatory furloughs within the coming year in order to just survive.

by carbonmutant
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 17:46
#153228

This bailout for Mexafornia is her reward for delivering on the Health Care bill.

Somehow I don't think this going to buy her enough votes for next November tho...

by Anonymous
on Sat, 12/05/2009 - 16:14
#154029

Obama ..... change you can believe in

by Unscarred
on Sat, 12/05/2009 - 22:20
#154224

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