The New Bull Market Fallacy prepared by Naufal Sanaullah at Shadow Capitalism. An impressive summary piece and recommended reading.
| Attachment | Size |
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| New Bull Market Falacy.pdf | 9.23 MB |
Tyler Durden - Founder
Marla Singer - Foil
Travis - Author
Cornelius - Author
Sacrilege - Senior Researcher
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on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 18:45
#36084
Very good article...
Silence Dogood
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:39
#36142
Long live the bear, long live the bear, long live the bear!
The bear will rise and maul the bulls. The rise of the bear cometh! BEWARE!
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 03:24
#36562
CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW?
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 03:27
#36564
Sorry to shout I got off Anonymous and now I'm just Anonymous "light".
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:03
#36102
I don't know what you're talking about. This IS a bull market. Period. All the fundamentals support it. Things are looking GREAT - we are in a consumer-less, revenue-less, jobless V-shaped recovery. Can't you get that through your head?!
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:10
#36108
And P/E of companies are just soooo attractive on snp at 6 dollars compared to last years 60
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:16
#36184
You forgot "home equity-less", and "savings-less".
I'm sure there's more - but that's just how impressive this bull-charging recovery is.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 21:02
#36220
not to mention Tax revenue-less to boot
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 23:06
#36379
And investorless. Our Happy Robots don't count.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 12:21
#36965
Clue-less, too, thanks to CNBC.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 07:33
#36633
Someone had their sarcasm meter turned off. Not junk.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 12:24
#36968
Anonymous, post #36102 -
"I don't know what you're talking about. This IS a bull market. Period. All the fundamentals support it. Things are looking GREAT - we are in a consumer-less, revenue-less, jobless V-shaped recovery. Can't you get that through your head?!"
Buddy, I'm having a crabby day, I read that and laughed hard enough to get my wife to walk in from another room, now she questions my sanity.
A jobless, massively over-leveraged, massive deficit, low GDP, low CPI "V" shaped recovery indeed!!!
We're headed for 1200 on the S&P this afternoon!!!!!
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:05
#36103
Oh yes. It's time for the rubber band man. It truly is growing tight. Materials Sciences come in handy about now.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:25
#36195
You rang?
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:10
#36106
There is too much consumer DEBT.....This market will crash hard!
Check out the consumer debt's: http://etfdailynews.com/blog/?p=5417
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:14
#36114
Very nice article. The truth and nothing but the truth. But a 50% or more bear market rally on the scale of this meltdown is to expected. If for no other reason than the bear needs to hibernate and people need a breather in terms of psychology. But the inner belly of a huge bear is that you gotta suck everyone back in (which can only be measured by sentiment indices) before the declines begin again. So we can complain all we want that this market defies gravity but it is truly within the nature of the beast. By all accounts, September should be fun for ZH'ers. Just be patient, my friends. Should be a great time for October options plays.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:05
#36173
Not everybody trades equities, Howie. Your comment only makes sense if you assume everyone is an equity trader.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:31
#36199
I don't trade equities for a living (only trade for my own amusement)... and I understand him perfectly.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:18
#36120
..."real buying from real retail investors." Obvious to everyone, the retail investor has been burned twice, and many lack the cash or the courage to participate in this rally. At some point, isn't the current rally dependent on the participation of the retail investor? There's $300+billion sitting in MM Funds. Question: Is that a major market moving sum?
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:22
#36125
I find it amusing that futures overnight tend to stay negative. (yet another sign of genuine bull market - fear to hold futures long term, :)
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:26
#36130
Oh, and he spelled Ceteris Paribus wrong. He spelled it C-e-t-e-r-u-s; with a U. It's C-e-t-e-r-i-s; with an i.
How am I supposed to take financial advice from a guy who can't even spell obscure latin phrases correctly?
I think I've made my point.
Good day to you, sir.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:40
#36143
Grammar Nazi
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:49
#36152
Hes not asking you to take financial advice from him, I would say this is more of a news outlet.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:56
#36162
I'm guessing his comments were made with his tongue firmly planted in his cheek. If not, then I'm guessing his head must be firmly planted in his rectum.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 08:21
#36645
ceteris is the plural of ceterus
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:28
#36132
Who real said it's a Bull market? Pushing over straw men....
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:34
#36138
One random dude on Seeking Alpha called it a bull market, so therefore this is directed at him or her. I've not found anyone here talking about a bull market. Just that one guy.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:45
#36148
abby joseph cohen
i'm laughing so hard!!
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:49
#36153
Green shoots. Smoke 'em if you got 'em. Otherwise...
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:29
#36133
Very nice and thorough article... I wonder if when the market crashes next time will we see the same distribution of flows into the yen and the USD... or will we see people prefering the yen and shying away from the USD?
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:00
#36168
im guessing there will be one last flight to safety, and thatll be the dollars last breathe
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:35
#36140
saw an article about return of the dotcom bubble traders... they see the same now, yeehaa to the moon on sky rocket fuzzy fumes of green smokienss.... or was that a crystal
who cares, smoke the rise and get high... high higher profits
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:39
#36141
Recycled old permabear ideas...misinterprets the p.e. for the S&P, (it's around 18, not 150), and ignores asset allocation needs of fund managers.
Denniger, ZeroHedge, Slope of Hope, Xtrends...have been so massively incorrect and conspiratoral for so long that I think a new naming convention is in order for the group - the Area 51 gang? the Roswell consortium?
May a Goldman Sachs bot eat your lunch tomorrow.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:42
#36146
Apparently Mr. Durden and I have a different interpretation of the word "succinct." This article is as succinct as Gravity's Rainbow or Ulysses.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 07:37
#36636
Oh my god , I have tried three different times to read those two books, never successfully. Not only not succinct, undecipherable.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 12:31
#36979
try read Finnegans Wake.... impossible of you are not on coke or acid
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:52
#36157
Actually, according to the experts at S&P, the p/e of the S&P500 IS around 127 if you go by "as reported earnings" top down estimates by macro economists. It's 25.20 if you go by operating earnings and bottom up analysis. This is all based on the closing price of the S&P500 as of 6/30/09. It's all right here, if you care to look. If not, good luck!
(warning, this will open up an Excel spreadsheet from the S&P website)
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 23:20
#36375
interesting
Risk as it pertains to ... ? Backstop behind the SLPz? So, conceivably, a "past ball" (not seen coming, i.e. flashed in a dark pool) thrown in the dirt could get by the catcher and roll how far (without a backstop)? There is no risk when Bernanke is the umpire behind the plate.
His message was being spread and gaining even more support...therefore he needed to be censored.
Until we have guys like Black back as regulators nothing will change. We just
good articles; my newest bookmarked finance site ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 13:23
#37061
! Bot-like noise (random copy paste?) and spam
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:29
#36196
I'm trying to figure out why you would waste the time typing that. Seriously??
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:38
#36207
Since the market just crashed Fall 2008 and again in Winter 2009... they couldn't have been "massively incorrect and conspiratorial for so long"... and since ZeroHedge has only been around since January 2009 I wouldn't think that is "so long" either... actually when you look the big picture from the 2008 and 2009 I think they were more right than wrong... and the artist isn't quite finished with the big picture quite yet I think.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:56
#36163
66.81 p/e of snp according to
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html?mod=mdc_h_usshl
147.3 p/e according to
http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-indexespeyields.html
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:19
#36189
need to state what the time frame is....how many
months of trailing earnings? also some calculations
omit losses which provides a highly skewed view
of p/e
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 19:59
#36166
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090724.htm?T
look at that chart and say the market is good value!
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:00
#36170
and another piece of good news on the job front
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090807.htm?T
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:24
#36193
Andy Fastow must be wondering why the hell he is sitting in jail. The banksters have taken what he started at Enron and raised it to an art form - with the full complicity of the government and the Fed. Maybe if Enron was bank he would be getting a huge taxpayer funded bonus instead.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:44
#36210
sort of like Conrad Black - his sin - carrying boxes of documents out of his own office building whilst the security cameras recorded the event for posterity - as he bakes in a jail just a short drive (Orlando area) from his Palm Beach ocean side estate - (the irony was that it was the US that prosecuted him even though the sin was committed in Canada) what happens in Canada doesn't stay in Canada
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:57
#36216
GE is the new Enron...
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 22:21
#36308
Being a genius before your time is a bitch. Trust me, I know.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 02:14
#36541
I still have my button.
Still waiting for the GEnius part.
Must have missed the bus.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 09:32
#36690
"Andy Fastow must be wondering why the hell he is sitting in jail."
This is a recurring thought for myself as well.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 10:22
#36751
Yeah, me too. Weird times.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:30
#36198
interesting...authored by a 19 year old college student
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:54
#36214
you're right - is this guy a Taleb or a poseur
Naufal Sanaullah
"I am a 19 year old rising junior Mathematics major at the University of Michigan with an interest and background in macroeconomics and equity markets. I trade stocks, currencies, and futures using a global macro fundamental analysis approach combined with a price-, volume-, and moving average-based technical analysis method stemming from IBD/CANSLIM principles."
and here is a piece NS wrote back on May 1 where the author declared his investment positions Disclosure: Long TBT; Short GS, JPM, MS
Why This Rally Is Unsustainable
http://seekingalpha.com/article/134482-why-this-rally-is-unsustainable
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 23:44
#36447
lol must not be drinking enough red bull
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:31
#36201
wow, very impressive and scary
I'm pretty much going to 50% cash 20% stocks, and 30% short SOON
soon goldman, jpm, and the PPT will be dicking around all alone with some pension funds dfor the last bid
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 20:37
#36205
and thanks ZH for providing the 'pdf' link as opposed to the horrible to navigate 'scribd'
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 21:00
#36219
and now from almost everyone's favorite barista (and first rate econo-blogger)
The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/08/next-wave-of-financial-crisis.html
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 21:04
#36223
Very good article!
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 21:10
#36225
Up here is Canada, the informed investor has their "Canadian Tire" money, stashed in vault and ready to use when this all falls apart.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 21:12
#36227
I detect the natives getting restless.
With every 1% gain in the S&P , the amusement factor of being a permabear is reduced by the square of the root of the margin call.
No comments on this unless you can answer
-45 + (-3) times 45 minus 5 minus -7
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 22:10
#36248
178... nice one with the Order of Operations... that would be a good Captcha. I am not a permabear... but I am bearish... and actually I have skin in the game on a $30K short position... and I actually am amused everyday... it is absolutely fascinating watching everyone not having a clue of what things will look like 6 months from now.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 22:48
#36348
when you can't attack the message, name call the messenger... "permabear"
grow the f**k up
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 21:15
#36232
Up here is Canada, the informed investor has their "Canadian Tire" money, stashed in vault and ready to use when this all falls apart.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 21:20
#36238
So all this is very worrying to me. I just graduated from college and I'll be making $65k starting in engineering. Over a few years, after I pay off my college loans (I have only about 10k in them), I will have some money to invest in. I don't want it going into a sinkhole.
From the sounds of it, I should stay away from equities and wait till bond yields get more lucrative.
But I don't want to take anyone's advice or words for granted, not to demean this blog. In order to become more fully rounded in investment strategy, what books should I pick up and read? Mathematical formulae are no problem for me, but bear in mind engineers aren't taught accounting or banking ... the only background I have is the general "buy low sell high" and some research into our fiat money system.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 21:41
#36265
please do yourself a favor...before you "invest", put aside enough cash to last you at least one year.
as to which books to read....read as many as you can. read all the financial rags. read the financial and political blogs. you must read to gain information and then read what other people are thinking. there is no easy, it is a constant task.
good luck to you.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 22:31
#36326
This blog can be pretty alarming. You are graduating in a good field with a life of work, saving and investing ahead of you. Just be prudent. Do the following in this order:
1) Put as much as you can afford into your company's 401k
2) Same time as above, start setting aside cash to live by for six months or a year in a normal savings account. This is wise just to be ready for regular lay offs and the like and not just because some sort of economic apocolypse is coming as people around here seem to think.
3) Once you do the above, start setting money aside for investment outside the 401k if that's what you want. If you plan to be an active day or week trader, don't trade amounts above what you can afford to lose. Don't play with your emergency savings ever.
Most of your retirement savings will be in the 401k which generally over basic investment options, like funds which track the dow or bonds or whatever. Within the 401k, you can put your funds wherever you like. If you're really worried about the stock market, put them in more conservative funds.
You are young. Even if serious economic realignment is coming, you have lots of time to save and invest. There will probably be at least two or three long-term bull markets within your lifetime.
I like this site, and think along the lines of many folks here, but don't let it scare the bejeezus out of you. You're in a good spot. I wish I had the sense to become an engineer. I studied philosophy.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 09:37
#36696
"1) Put as much as you can afford into your company's 401k"
OMFG. Lock up money in a 401(k) where all the "investment choices" are market-bullish, and even the "safe" "stable-value" choices are not stable? I am extremely glad to have left all of my "employers" behind in time to roll the 401(k) money I had trapped there into IRA accounts with a much broader range of choices.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 11:27
#36880
Tax advantages and employer match. Only a moron doesn't take advantage of that. Sounds like you used the old 401k multiple times yourself.
That said, one should definitely roll them over as soon as you leave.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 11:45
#36915
Agreed. My employer has a 75% matching on the first 8% you contribute. How can you pass up an instantaneous 75% gain on what you invest? Combine that with tax savings, one would truly have to be a moron to ignore that.
That said, once you leave, by all means dump it into an IRA.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 22:48
#36347
I agree that you should save up at least one years worth of living expenses in a conservative investment... savings account, CD's, Treasuries, money market. Only put into equities right now what you would take to Las Vegas and would be willing to loose without complaint... that will change at some point but it is a very risky time for both short-term and long-term investors in my humble opinion.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 03:23
#36560
Try some books explaining economic history, "The great Crash" from John Kenneth Galbraith for example. Another good read is "reminescences of a stock operator" by Edwin Lefevre. Take your time to find out which sources of information work and which do not work. That takes time but helps. You can even start paper trading, but trust me, if you use some real money the learning experience much better. A loss on paper-so what, a loss of say 50 real dollars does not really hurt but makes you thinking what you did wrong and might do better next time.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 09:51
#36718
All, thanks for the advice. I will start reading more of the financial blogs and get some balance ... I did note that this blog is very bearish and hyperventilatory, but at least the authors are honest and don't (seem) to have a hidden agenda. Except world domination, like the rest of us.
I agree that the 401k is the best place to start investing, and for now, I will stay in a conservative fund (mostly bonds, some treasuries) and it is a guaranteed positive fund (this quarter it's pegged at 3.87%), and mix that with some international funds. I also profited handsomely by making some bets (like F when it was a buck, MTLQQ when it was 0.57) so I think I will cash out and not get (too) greedy. And I agree, I've got what ... 40 years of investing ahead of me, no reason to be in a hurry. It'd be cool to make a few million on the market but that is for people who have a true passion for this stuff. My passion is airplanes and rockets. Yes I am a rocket scientist :)
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 21:25
#36246
I love that word fallacious. It's got to rhyme with phallus for a reason. It's like saying a person is wrong and a dick at the same time. GE is not the new enron.Every large sociopathic can't stand competition or sharing corporation is the new enron of which we have dozens in the S@P, Nasdaq and DOW. Can't we just pile these hedge funds into the bank stocks kill off the fed on thier way to an auction and be done with it once and for all.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 21:44
#36269
Refreshing to see someone put the secondary offerings squarely in the spotlight they deserve!
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 21:48
#36274
how is this a good article? It is just collection of references to other peoples research including ZH and material posted on ZH. This rally's strength was unexpected but it is hardly a bubble - it is only couple of months old. We need to run this for few years before calling it a bubble. About high PEs - of course they are high because people are looking that earning will rebound somewhat to more normal levels. And as earnings collapsed by multiples -then taking trailing PE does not really work in current situation. But consider that earnings can improve then the PE are not going to be that high. Who you gonna trust - this "researchers" or Paulson who bought bizillion shares of BAC? And the last author's name is Tyler? Are you seriuos?
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 21:59
#36290
Tell us genius, did Paulson buy BAC at $3 or $15???
Fucked recent buyers are dying to know...
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 22:38
#36339
ok, i will tell you. First, i donot know his exact buying prices. Are you saying he bought his entire 160M shares at 3 dollars? Lets even assume thats the case. But you were yelling "bear market rally" when BAC was at 5, then 7, then 11 and now 17. And you can keep doing that if you think it helps your acount. And keep reading long articles that are a collection of "cut and paste" from blogs and other free web material and keep marvel at it.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 22:40
#36340
Ok, you're comfortable with all that's going on, it's a free country. Tell me though, are you a buyer here? Are you comfortable being long going into Sept./Oct.?
And how many is a "bizillion?"
Oh, and throw a name on your comments (mine's Dixie) so you can come back at dow 15,000 and make fun of all the naysayers here.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 22:44
#36343
Oh, and throw a name on your comments (mine's Dixie) so you can come back at dow 15,000 and make fun of all the naysayers here.
----------------------------
do not need to wait for DOW 15K. I am making fun of you naysayers right now at SP 1000 all the way from 666.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 22:51
#36352
Can't take you as seriously as others who have their "name" in the game.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 22:51
#36353
Oh, ok so YOU were the guy that got that print. Man, you must have had some balls to wait until it hit right there to buy. And not a second sooner or even later?
So I'll say it again, are you a buyer here, a seller or so confident that this is a bull market that you have no intention of even watching your "portfolio?"
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 22:31
#36328
The stock market has become a defiant little brat you want to slap the shit out of.
All the logical arguments against it going up are like the parents telling the kid to behave.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 22:34
#36334
You are so insightful sometimes... great analogy!
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 22:43
#36342
Thanks, I try.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 23:19
#36410
Risk as it pertains to ... ? Backstop behind the SLPz? So, conceivably, a "past ball" (not seen coming, i.e. flashed in a dark pool) thrown in the dirt could get by the catcher and roll how far (without a backstop)? There is no risk when Bernanke is the umpire behind the plate.
my newest bookmarked finance site ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 23:28
#36421
Zapf... are you the constantly changing spammer running around this site changing his name every day with "my newest bookmarked finance site". I wouldn't click on that link if my life depended on it.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 23:32
#36432
Which is probably what will happen. Either that or everyone will start soiling themselves so they are too foul to targeted for rape.
Tell me people at Goldman Sachs don't play with poo. Please tell me.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 22:45
#36346
on an unrelated subject - hey Tyler are you using Drupal? i have heard bad things about it, hard to upgrade to new versions if you made changes in your local installation.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 23:00
#36372
At some point, isn't the current rally dependent on the participation of the retail investor? There's $300+billion sitting in MM Funds. Question: Is that a major market moving sum?
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 23:12
#36396
I think I there would have to be a genuine unconflicted confidence for that money to move into equities in mass... to many people have lost so much... and I doubt that money will move anywhere until true growth is re-established... less bad is not going to move it anywhere.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 23:17
#36408
To me this is the goal of the whole rally that began mid July: getting it going higher until retail has to get in. They won't do it now because there is still too much going bad that they can actually see (e.g. job losses, housing, property taxes based on old valuations, etc). But if it goes higher, and they start to see any light, the odd lot/greater fool feels comfortable buying.
The Street knows this well, some call it creating confidence in the markets, others call it Ponzi.
on Thu, 08/13/2009 - 23:29
#36423
Ponzi it is then...
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 00:09
#36472
Comes of ignorance of human psychology and condescension that quant/hedgy/traders have of other humans. They believe that if they monkey up the dials everyone will take them for true readings. They forget that the few fortunate to have a few coins to rub together got them by thrift, canniness, hard labour. Carnival barkers but on a monumental scale is all they are.
Building this big bluster will ruin them twice over if they can't get "the stupid cows" to commit funds.
This insures greater immiseration, greater and more complete collapse.
And no entreprenuer with a great product will ever again allow a public bourse to prostitute and defile his handiwork. These traders cannot exist without the liquidity and transactions of the productive class.
They are stooping to every device of graft/vice/prevarication.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 06:03
#36589
Agreed... you would have to be crazy to take a company public that you have created with blood, sweat, and tears...
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 00:18
#36481
I read the kid's last piece in Seeking Alpha, and have the same reply to this one as I did to his last - No one knows how they're pumping the market to these highs - consistently - and no knows knows - yet - if they can continue to keep it up here. I believe a correction of SPX 850 or thereabouts is in order between now and the end of October; a nice, controlled drop from here (I like his 1015 theory.) But, after that, it's full steam ahead SPX 1100 or higher for New Years.
850 is as low as they'll let it drop, if that.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 01:54
#36533
850 is a dream high on a drop....things are so
bad that sp500 will drop much lower....there
is so much pixie dust, self deceit, fraud, and
lunacy raging that everyone has deluded himself
with happy endings....sp500 will drop to 300-400
as part of the secular bear market....
everyone should fasten his seat belts tight....
things are getting ready to rumble - it is not
an event - it is a process
the government has no control over its markets -
it just thinks it does because certain powers
have allowed it to play games for the past 6
months.....
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 00:53
#36501
Is it possible the market is being pumped until Obama can fulfill his legislative agenda? Or - perhaps Obama is simple giving the bankers enough rope to hang themselves. This could be what David Mamet would call "The Long Con", letting your enemy believe he has you in his pocket, till you are good and ready to pounce...
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 01:16
#36516
i didn't have time to read the full article but for those of you with family, friends, acquaintances who have not paid their clue phone bill in full, this could be their life saver....comprehensive - but nothing new for long time zh readers.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 02:05
#36537
It's a very well written summary, but I have learned in a manipulated market you never knw what will happen and with the fed giving goldman profits on the treasury bond it buys, by buying them back they have an unlimited amount of funds t paly with along with access to the discount window, and exclusive SLP. so I knw what should happen, or what should have happened, but I don't knw what will happen.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 02:15
#36542
Agent Cryptofascist 9119: Code name ''Seize Gold'', told me ''You've got the new 911 swine flu HFT Iran Israeli ring around the rosy''. This means, we all fall down.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 02:34
#36545
Party over in October...you heard it from our party host this week! Happy Halloween...probably a freaking "spooky" market by then...but who knows. This thing still is playing out like "April Fools".
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 03:24
#36561
I dont think you are taking into account what the big banks have access too along with the help of the Fed. To me they can run the market up and the economy remains in the gutter.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 03:26
#36563
Ahhh, this kid is doing what most bears have been doing since mid-April: trying to preform a Jedi-mind trick on himself. Trying to put into words a thesis that will convince himself that the short position he obviously has himself caught up in will play out. "These are not the droids you're looking for, etc...." I don't disagree with a single thing the kid writes... EXCEPT the main point he's making: that the markets are going to go down and go down hard. He doesn't know that; I don't know that; NO ONE knows that. I'm not saying there won't be a crash, I'm just saying the market shouldn't crash. (Well, no... I AM saying the market should crash. Of course it should crash. There's absolutely no reason for the market to be at these levels. Nothing supports this fantasy world. What I'm saying is that, at this point, the only reason the markets will crash is if the allow it to crash, if they want it to crash, or - as the kid speculates - they NEED it to crash. He might be right. But you any of you to insinuate that it's a done deal and there's no way to stop it and it's coming and it's coming soon, is just plain buffoonery. Makes you sound as stupid as Cramer but in the opposite direction.
Incidentally, speaking of Cramer, I read the WEIRDEST article on CNBC in regards to him. You know how on the website, after his show each night, they kind of do a summary of his calls and of the main point/theme of that evening's show? Well, yesterday, he was calling for a "correction", evidently (I didn't see the show... 'cause I don't watch the show), and so but they do this re-cap of his show, titled "Cramer Predicts a Pullback", and I guess what happened is the guy who writes for CNBC, this guy Tom Brennan, who usually writes the Mad Money pieces for CNBC.com, he goes and starts to take issue with Cramer's call that the market's going down, saying he's "Maybe being too bearish..." You gotta read it for yourself to get the full gist of what he's trying to get across, but the point is is that all of a sudden you have even Cramer realizing that this is getting ridiculous and that the market is at the least overbought and at the worst completely being manipulated and should never have gotten to these heights in the 1st place. And here you have the editorial staff at CNBC.com completely contradicting Cramer and going off in the opposite direction from what he was truing to say on his show.
What is this indicative of? I don't know. Maybe that CNBC has given up all attempts at making itself look like anything other than the main cheerleader for this bubble that's forming right before our very eyes, after famously missing the last 2. I guess their new policy is that if any of their staff goes "off the reservation" on air, then the writes are under order to write a point/counterpoint in summation. NO ONE IS ALLOWED TO SAY THE MARKET GOES DOWN. NO ONE!!!!! (Read it, it's really fucking weird.)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32389546
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 17:13
#37413
Great point. I agree with you; this paper is spot-on with respect to the economic fundamentals but the market is unlikely to care. When it comes to economic theory, don't put your money where your mouth is.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 04:50
#36579
Found myself nodding in agreement with this article all the way through. By my own thinking I had arrived at the same conclusion: "a collapse of equity markets is both imminent and necessary".
The rally was no more than the Fed granting member-banks time to try filling in their black holes a little. Set the robo-traders to uber-bull and distribute fresh shares into the subsequent rally. Once the thing runs out of steam, let it tank because who cares? A few sucker investors get burned, boo hoo, the Fed couldn't care less because if they had money to spare, it's better funneled into the black hole, plus the primary aim is to prevent further mortgage sourced implosions, not to help investors.
With a mission to assist banks trade out, and to prevent more mortgages going under, it makes sense to trigger a little equity rally for the banks with some injected fairy money, then kill it when yields go to high. Easy. I would do the same if I were the Fed. Redistribute a little wealth from stock-market pundits to banks.
The hard part is timing a short entry. These ****ers are engineering squeezes left, right and center. Each new squeeze funnels a little more cash into the derivative-monster-of-doom and you can bet that the big boys have nice algorithms and questionable access to prime information that allows them to engineer optimal squeezes.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 07:10
#36616
This post is part nostalgic (best of blogs summation) and part conventional wisdom (for the bearish nor bullisht).
Would add that Brazil and India are also seeing public $$ failing to 'stimulate' private contraction.
The world governments 'seeding' amounts to nothing more than passing piss from one cup to another whilst spilling some along the way.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 10:10
#36742
The author makes his best point at the end: the Fed is incentivized to crash this market, having pumped it to draw in more money first. Bernanke has announced the end of QE, yet we all know that the Treasury issue schedule continues apace. From where will the money come? As Bernanke withdraws liquidity (support), the stock markets have only one way to go.
This is the greatest financial crisis since GD One. I still maintain we were deprived of our capitulation event by Fed intervention. 40% down followed by an immediate ramp up is crap; not deep enough or lasting enough. Capitulation is an emotional condition; it is easily recognized as a condition where NO ONE wants stocks, where everyone is genuinely bearish and sells every damned stock they own and never again wants anything to do with the goddamned stock market etc etc. That never happened. The cycle was cut off by an attempt to reblow the bubble. That is what everyone expected to happen a la "Don't bet against the Fed". Historically, this is what they've been taught to expect. They were not disappointed.
This time the hole is too deep and the Fed can't handle it. The only question that anyone needs to answer is this one: How will the Federal government continue to pay its operating costs and debts? Tax revenues continue to fall while demands for spending continue to rise; no end to this is in sight.
But even this speculation relies on some truth exerting itself in the market. Can any accounting be trusted anymore? Next leg down makes perfect sense to me, but anything is possible in Bizarro World.
on Fri, 08/14/2009 - 13:15
#37054
No one can purge 3 decades of financial excesses in 18 months. Didn't, doesn't and won't happen.
When will the markets reflect this reality? I don't know.
How bad is it going to be? I don't know.
But we can speculate: Einstein taught us that gravity is function of the mass. By analogy, it is not an exageration to suppose that the mass of excesses should generate a very high downward gravitational pull on the markets at some time in the future.
The only thing I can do is to be prepared for it.
on Sun, 08/16/2009 - 15:01
#38282
How does a 19 year old junior math major at the Univ of Michigan have such deep knowledge of the markets, HFT, dark pools, etc? How does he have enough money and time to trade as posted on his site? Where does his knowledge of FX come from? Algebra class? A very thorough and thoughtful post, well beyond the level of a teenager. A financial genius(??) or a pseudonym for someone much more experienced?
on Mon, 08/17/2009 - 04:32
#38521
I appreciate the sentiment, but I assure you I am indeed a 19 year old junior math major at Michigan. No pseudonyms here, and neither am I a financial genius. My two co-authors for this piece are 20 year old juniors at Notre Dame and Duke.
on Mon, 08/17/2009 - 07:04
#38582
I think you are going to have an amazing career ahead of you...